有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜价午后增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价增仓上行，主力期价站上 8.07 万关口，沪铜持仓量午后 上升超 2 万张。午后有色普涨，白银也上行明显。宏观层面，上周以 色列和伊朗停战，宏观氛围回暖，此外，美联储降息预期升温，美 元持续下挫，利好铜价。产业层面，Mysteel 电解铜库存为 12.35 万 吨，较上周去库 0.84 万吨。宏观和产业利好共振推动铜价站上 8 万 关口，预计铜价将维持强势。 沪铝 有色金属 | 日报 1. 产业动态 ...

作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 11 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观氛围回暖，有色普涨 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡上行，午后持仓量有所上升。今日有色普涨，盘面 氛围较好。上周五以来，铜价开始增仓上行，我们认为是短期宏观 氛围回暖推动了铜价上行。产业层面，消费进入淡季，社库去化放 缓，7-8 月差持续收窄。技术层面，短线期价突破 5 月高点，且整体 呈现增仓上行趋势，上行动能较强，预计期价维持强势运行，上方 关注 8 万关口压力。 沪铝 今日铝价增仓上行明显，主力期价回升至 2.02 万上方。近期宏观 氛围回暖 ...

投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 作者声明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜日内回落 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价冲高，今日震荡回落，持仓量持续上升。上周五以来， 铜价开始增仓上行，我们认为是短期宏观氛围回暖推动了铜价上 行。产业层面，消费进入淡季，社库去化放缓，基差月差持续收 窄。技术层面，短线期价在 5 月高点有一定压力，冲高回落，可持续 关注该位置多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价偏弱震荡，主力期价跌破 2 万关口，持仓量小幅上升。 近期宏观氛围回暖。产业层面，上游电解铝厂利润较高，盘面套保压 力较大，给予铝价压力；下游需求较 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The macro - atmosphere has warmed up, and capital attention has increased. Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards, with the main contract price once reaching the 79,000 - yuan mark on Thursday. The rise is due to the easing of Sino - US relations and financial attribute - driven catch - up growth. However, after the holiday, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly, and the spread between July and August contracts continued to narrow, pressuring the futures price. In the short term, the warming macro - atmosphere will drive copper prices to fluctuate upwards. Looking ahead to June, there are signs of a recovery in the macro - level [3][60]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - atmosphere has warmed up, but capital attention has decreased. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated around the 20,000 - yuan mark with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest. Trump's statement on May 30 to raise steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% may increase market tariff expectations and is bearish for aluminum prices in the long - term globally. In the short - and medium - term, the continuous increase in bauxite port inventory at the industrial upstream, good downstream demand, continuous depletion of electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and low downstream initial inventory support aluminum prices. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile trend [4][60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - On the evening of June 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Trump expressed respect for President Xi, and both sides recognized the importance of Sino - US relations. The Geneva economic and trade talks were successful. - The Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and will hold the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards, with the main contract price once reaching the 79,000 - yuan mark on Thursday. Various price - related charts such as copper futures price trends, copper's Shanghai - London ratio, and others are presented [3][10][11]. - **Declining Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, indicating a tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. The domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year, reflecting an expected tightness in the domestic ore end [24]. - **Slowing Electrolytic Copper De - stocking**: The de - stocking of electrolytic copper has slowed down, as shown by the trends of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory [28][29]. - **Downstream Initial Demand**: The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is presented, including data on refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips [31][32]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated around the 20,000 - yuan mark, with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest. Multiple price - related charts such as aluminum price trends, aluminum's Shanghai - London ratio, and others are provided [4][33][34]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: The port inventory of bauxite has been continuously increasing, and the price trend of alumina is also shown [45][46][49]. - **Seasonal De - stocking of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory show a trend of change, indicating seasonal de - stocking [50][51]. - **Downstream Initial Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods and the processing fee and inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented [53][54][57]. 3.4 Conclusion - **Copper**: In the short term, the warming macro - atmosphere will drive copper prices to fluctuate upwards. In June, there are signs of a macro - level recovery. However, the industrial end is in the off - season, with poor consumption expectations and rising inventory, which will put pressure on copper prices [3][60]. - **Aluminum**: The futures price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. In the long - term, Trump's tariff increase statement is bearish for aluminum prices globally, but in the short - and medium - term, the increase in upstream bauxite inventory, good downstream demand, and low downstream inventory support aluminum prices. If the domestic macro - situation continues to improve, aluminum prices will show a stronger volatile trend [4][60].