A股2025年交易收官在即，下周将迎来全年最后3个交易日。展望岁末年初行情，业内机构认为，在超 预期的内需变化出现前，还是以结构性机会主导的震荡市思维应对市场，短期市场结构特征有望延续， 量能或是行情的关键信号。 前11个月规上工业企业利润总额超6.6万亿元 国家统计局12月27日发布数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元，同 比增长0.1%，自今年8月份以来累计增速连续四个月保持增长。1—11月份，规模以上工业企业营业收 入同比增长1.6%。 ETF规模突破6万亿元 创历史新高 Wind数据显示，截至12月26日，境内ETF总规模达到6.03万亿元，创历史新高。其中，股票型ETF规模 超3.8万亿元，跨境ETF规模超9300亿元，债券型ETF规模超8000亿元，商品型ETF、货币型ETF规模分 别超2500亿元、超1700亿元。 中信证券：短期以震荡市思维应对市场 就配置而言，持仓集中度较低、市场关注度开始提升且长期ROE有提升空间的板块是首选，商业航天等 近期热门题材或反复发酵；此外，人民币近期持续升值，有望受益于升值带动进口成本下降的上游资源 品等同样值得关注。 影响 ...

Market Overview - The market showed a general upward trend today, but compared to last Friday's decline, many investors remain cautious. The index did not see significant gains, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. Trading volume decreased, suggesting a lack of active participation from investors, with a median decline of 3.91% last Friday compared to a 1.31% increase today, indicating persistent fear in the market [1][3]. Buying and Selling Pressure - The buying power remains weak, with expectations of less than 1,000 in buying volume tomorrow, which is below the previous week's levels. Selling pressure was significant today, with over 670 sell orders, indicating continued outflow from retail investors and institutions. This unusual selling pressure during a day of general gains suggests that the market has not yet cleared the selling pressure, leading to potential further testing in the coming days [3][5]. Sector Performance - The ST (Special Treatment) sector had the highest number of stocks hitting the daily limit up, with 12 stocks reaching this threshold. Other sectors had fewer than 10 stocks hitting the limit, indicating a lack of strength in those areas. The military industry showed relatively strong performance, driven by news-related factors, while sectors like Fujian Free Trade and large models also saw some gains, albeit from lower bases [5][6]. Market Sentiment - Despite some signs of recovery, the market is not experiencing a true broad-based rally. The number of stocks that have declined for three consecutive days remains high, with over 600 stocks, indicating ongoing weakness. The current market environment is characterized by sector rotation and ongoing consolidation, with investors either choosing to band together in certain stocks or remain on the sidelines due to uncertainty [8][9].

震荡市：守住本金 ...

资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 2025 年 9 月 29 日 PP：中期或是震荡市 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 6893 | 0.00% | 229,349 | -18267 | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 01合约基差 | -193 | | -198 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -43 | | -43 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6650 - | 6750 | 6680 - 6780 | | | | 华东 | 6700 - | 6800 | 6700 - 6800 | | | | 华南 | 6650 - | 6830 | 6640 - 6830 | | 国内 PP 市场价格窄幅整理。今日暂 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market conditions since October last year resemble those of 2013 and 2019, suggesting a potential transition to a comprehensive bull market [2][10][30] - The strategic characteristics of the current market include low valuation levels, weak corporate earnings, positive policy tone, and active thematic opportunities, which are similar to the market conditions observed in previous bull markets [9][10][30] - Historical analysis shows that out of several past oscillating markets, there were four bear markets and two bull markets, indicating a mixed outcome for similar conditions [3][10] Group 2 - The report highlights that the transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market in July 2014 was driven by a brief economic rebound, a shift to positive policies, and inflows of resident funds [16][23] - In July 2020, the transition was characterized by a rapid recovery of the economy post-pandemic, global policy easing, and significant inflows of resident funds, leading to a strong earnings bull market [23][30] - The current assessment suggests that while the strategic outlook is positive, tactical indicators do not yet show clear signs of a breakout, and further oscillation may be needed before a transition occurs [30][37] Group 3 - The report provides a configuration suggestion that emphasizes value-oriented investments in the current quarter, with a potential increase in growth sector allocations later in Q3 [37][39] - Specific industry outlooks include a focus on new consumption, media, military industry, and non-bank financial sectors, with an emphasis on the potential for strong performance in these areas [38][39] - The report notes that the financial sector remains undervalued, with expectations of a gradual recovery in the real estate market, which could positively impact financial institutions [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - The stock market should be treated as a volatile market, while the profit - taking sentiment in the bond market is rising. Specifically, the stock index futures are in a volatile market, the sentiment in the stock index options is expected to continue to warm up, and the profit - taking sentiment in the bond index futures continues to heat up [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Treat it as a volatile market. The current major indices are approaching the upper resistance levels. Although the A - share market rose on the previous day due to the easing of geopolitical tensions, this rise is a one - time pricing of the exhaustion of negative news and cannot be a reference for the sustainability of the subsequent market. Catalysts are needed for an upward breakthrough, and currently, it is still far from the time for concentrated speculation, so it should be treated as a volatile market, with low - level buying and high - level selling [1][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [7]. Stock Index Options - **View**: The sentiment is expected to continue to warm up. The trading volume in the options market increased by 29.90% compared with the previous trading day, showing active trading. The PCR of open interest continued to rise, and there is still room for improvement in sentiment. The skewness of major varieties decreased, indicating a shift from defense to offense in the market. The volatility rebounded but remained at a low level. It is recommended to continue with the collar or bull spread strategies and a light - position double - buying strategy for volatility [2][7]. - **Suggestion**: Collar, bull spread, and light - position double - buying [7]. Bond Index Futures - **View**: The profit - taking sentiment continues to heat up. The bond index futures closed down across the board on the previous day. The strong performance of the equity market and the potential disturbances in the capital market due to the approaching end of the quarter and increased supply may have put pressure on the bond market. The DR007 rose significantly to 1.67%. The bond market may remain in a volatile pattern, and the profit - taking sentiment has increased [2][9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For the trend strategy, it is a volatile market. For the hedging strategy, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels. For the basis strategy, appropriately pay attention to the widening of the basis. For the curve strategy, steepening the curve in the medium term has a higher probability of success [10]. 2. Economic Calendar The report provides an economic calendar for the current week, including data such as the manufacturing PMI preliminary values in the Eurozone and the United States, the IFO business climate index in Germany, and consumer confidence indices in the United States. Some data has been released, while others are yet to be announced [11]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - **US Macro**: On June 24, Fed Chairman Powell submitted semi - annual monetary policy report testimony to Congress, reiterating that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates and is waiting for the impact of tariffs to become clear. He believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be short - term or long - term [12]. - **China Macro**: Six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing to set up a re - loan for service consumption and elderly care with a quota of 500 billion yuan [12]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring The report mentions the monitoring of the stock index futures, stock index options, and bond index futures markets, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights substantial progress in China-US trade negotiations, leading to a market uptrend as both countries significantly reduced previously imposed tariffs [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a rebound, with the Shanghai 50 Index reaching a new high for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index lagged behind due to resistance from the 60-day moving average [1] - Market activity indicated a daily average trading volume of around 1.2 trillion yuan, which decreased compared to the previous week, particularly in the latter half of the week [1] Group 2 - The market's focus this week was primarily on the financial and consumer sectors, with large-cap blue chips leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index found support at the midline of its weekly range and is undergoing a rebound from oversold conditions, having filled the downward gap from April 7 [1] - The article suggests that the upward momentum may face increased resistance as the index approaches the first quarter high and the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of the previous year [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market may evolve in a volatile manner but is more likely to break downward. Long - term bonds are more cost - effective, and it is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. The bond market has been volatile in the past two weeks due to weak fundamentals constraining interest rate increases and high short - term interest rates constraining decreases. In the future, monetary easing is the general trend, and the supply pressure of government bonds in the second quarter is similar to that in the first quarter. Interest rates are unlikely to break upward significantly, and there is a possibility of a downward break driven by fundamental data [6][23]. Summary by Related Content Current Bond Market Situation - This week, the bond market continued its volatile pattern, with limited changes in interest rates across all tenors. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond rates rose slightly by 1.1bps and 2.3bps to 1.66% and 1.93% respectively. The money market continued to ease, and the certificate of deposit (CD) rate remained flat at 1.76%. The credit bond interest rate also increased slightly. The bond market has been in a narrow - range volatile stage for two consecutive weeks, with the 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuating narrowly around 1.63% - 1.67% [1][9]. Factors Constraining Interest Rate Movements Constraints on Interest Rate Increases - Fundamental pressures have constrained the upward space of interest rates. Due to trade conflicts, external demand risks have increased, and domestic demand has also shown signs of weakening. High - frequency data has weakened since April, and indicators such as EPMI and BCI have declined. However, the slowdown in high - frequency data and sentiment indices is relatively gentle, and the short - term support for interest rate decreases from the fundamentals is insufficient [2][10]. Constraints on Interest Rate Decreases - High short - term interest rates and the non - implementation of loose monetary policy have constrained the downward space of interest rates. After the intensification of external shocks, the market once expected rapid implementation of loose monetary policy, but subsequent policies were more passive and cooperative. The 2 - year Treasury bond rate first dropped rapidly and then rebounded, and the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds has narrowed to the lowest level in recent years, reflecting a decline in the market's short - term expectation of monetary easing [3][11]. Breakout Directions of Interest Rates Limited Upward Breakout Possibility - Interest rate constraints mainly come from short - term interest rates. Although monetary policy is currently passive, it does not mean that it will not be loose. The Politburo meeting emphasized moderately loose monetary policy. The money market center has shifted downward, and the CD rate has remained stable. The spread between CDs and Treasury bonds has narrowed, limiting the upward space of short - term Treasury bonds and the pressure on the overall interest rate curve. From the perspective of bond supply, the pressure in the second quarter is only slightly higher than that in the first quarter, with estimated net local bond financing of 4.4 trillion yuan in the second quarter, compared with 4.1 trillion yuan in the first quarter [4][13][15]. Possibility of Downward Breakout - With changes in the fundamentals, there is a possibility of an interest rate downward breakout, with fundamental data being the core concern. In April, industrial product prices declined significantly, indicating a further decline in the PPI year - on - year. Falling prices will lead to a relatively certain decline in nominal interest rates. Although high - frequency economic indicators show a slowdown in economic volume, the extent has not significantly exceeded expectations. The overall impact amplitude needs to be determined by subsequent fundamental data. If the fundamental pressure is large enough, reserve policies, including monetary policy, will be introduced, leading to a downward breakout of interest rates [5][18]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. Since the probability of an interest rate downward breakout is higher, long - term bonds are still advantageous, and long - term interest rates are expected to reach new lows [6][23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that international long-term investors have significantly returned to the Chinese capital market, reflecting their confidence in Chinese assets and providing solid fundamental support for market recovery [2] - The A-share market has shown a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3400 points, marking a new high for the year [2] - The current technology sector's valuation in China still has room for improvement, suggesting that the "revaluation of Chinese assets" is not yet complete [2][4] Group 2 - Investor sentiment has shifted positively, with an increase in the proportion of investors choosing to "add positions" or "hold positions," while those opting to "reduce positions" or "liquidate" have decreased [3] - The proportion of investors fully invested or using margin financing has increased, with 38.25% of respondents indicating they are fully invested, up by 2.29 percentage points from the previous period [3] - Despite a more positive holding level, the overall profitability of investors has shown a slight decline, with a small increase in the proportion of those experiencing losses [4] Group 3 - There is a rising focus on the consumer sector, with the proportion of respondents identifying it as a potential area of growth increasing from 5.28% to 16.22% [5] - The technology sector remains a significant area of interest, although there is a notable shift towards consumer stocks as they rebound from previous stagnation [5][6] - Strategic metals have experienced a price surge, particularly in antimony, bismuth, and cobalt, indicating a strong market trend in this segment [5] Group 4 - The survey indicates a decrease in confidence in the technology sector, with the proportion of respondents favoring it dropping from 62% to 42%, while confidence in the consumer sector has risen significantly [6] - The overall performance of the consumer sector is expected to outperform that of technology stocks, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards more stable and predictable earnings [6] - The upcoming market trends will be influenced by various factors, including policy releases from the Two Sessions, earnings disclosures from listed companies, and economic data from both domestic and international sources [6]