作者简介：CFA，金融MBA，多年基金从业经历。2007-2017年就职兴全基金，任趋势基金经理。2017-2024年就职浦银安盛基金，任价值投资 部总经理。2024-2025年，就职国联安基金价值投资负责人。 探寻真正意义上的好生意，是价值投资者矢志不渝的追求。但关于什么是真正意义上好生意的定义，长期以来众说纷纭、各执一词，正如 "一 千个人心中有一千个哈姆雷特"，不同人有着截然不同的解读。追根溯源，当我们回归到 "滚雪球" 式好生意定义的提出者 —— 巴菲特的理论 本源时，发现市场对其观点存在着深浅不一的误解。基于此，本文以巴菲特的致股东信、公开发表文章及访谈纪要为核心依据，对什么是真正 的好生意展开重新解读与梳理 在《穿越通胀迷雾，看清通往"好生意"之路》一文已明确指出：价值投资所重视的"好生意"，聚焦轻资产与定价权两大特质。本文所论述价值 投资眼中真正的好生意，对应巴菲特2007年致股东信提及的三类生意之一卓越生意（The Great，本文统称为卓越生意），既非普通好生意 （The Good），更非劣质生意（The Gruesome）。 我们的研究发现，巴菲特对"卓越生意"的定义是一个不断进化的过程。 ...

作者简介：CFA，金融MBA，多年基金从业经历。2007-2017年就职兴全基金，任趋势基金经 理。2017-2024年就职浦银安盛基金，任价值投资部总经理。2024-2025年，就职国联安基金价 值投资负责人。 到1983年致股东信中，其表述进一步系统化："直接或间接的经验使我们现阶段更青睐那些拥有 大量持久经济商誉，且仅需使用极少有形资产的生意。"这句话明确指出，定价权与低资本支出背 后的根本支撑，正是经济商誉。 在完整理解以上内涵的基础上，再来看1993年致股东信中的表述则更加具有层次感："最好的生 意，是那种能在很长时期内，以非常高的回报率投入大量增量资本的生意。"这意味着，即便属于 卓越生意，若无法将增量资本以高回报率进行再投资，仍然不能归类为"最好的生意"。换言之， 真正的顶尖企业不仅自身具备优异的经济特质，还必须拥有持续高效益配置增量资本的能力。 本文以喜诗糖果为核心案例，搭配其他经典投资标的，并结合巴菲特致股东信附录中对会计商誉 与经济商誉的分析，深入解读1983年版"卓越生意"的核心内涵，即"拥有大量持久经济商誉且仅需 极少有形资产"的生意特质。在此基础上，引入对苹果股票的投资案例进行延展性 ...

95岁的巴菲特在（2025年12月31日）正式交出了权杖，留下了一个3810亿美元的"现金怪物"和一位被误读的"接班人"。 很多人在缅怀"股神"的浪漫，却忽视了阿贝尔手里那把磨得锃亮的"工业镰刀"。 这恐将不再是那个喝可乐的伯克希尔，而是一台冰冷、高效、甚至嗜血的"资源收割机"。 01 基因突变 今天这事一句话： 伯克希尔不是变天了，是基因突变了。 你要记住一个数字：3810亿。 这是巴菲特留给阿贝尔的"弹药"，美金。 更恐怖的是，这个数字已经超过了伯克希尔持有的股票总市值（2830亿美元）。 伯克希尔从"买品牌"到"控资源" → 从"美国国运"到"全球套利" → 从"赚认知的钱"到"赚生存的钱"。 在这个新时代，你要是还抱着"学股神炒股"的老黄历，不仅喝不到汤，连碗都得被砸了。 02 顶级猎手伪装 江湖上都在传，63岁的阿贝尔是个温和的加拿大人，是个听话的执行者。 2000 年加入伯克希尔能源板块，2018 年起统管非保险业务，2021 年被明确为唯一继任者. 巴菲特评价其"精力水平 10 小时完成量显著高于我"，并公开称"公司越早交给他越好" 能被巴菲特这种阅人无数的老狐狸选中的人，怎么可能是只小白兔？ ...

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett will retire as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway on January 1, 2026, after 60 years in the role, handing over to Greg Abel, who will take on the role of chairman behind the scenes. Buffett's legacy includes a company valued at over $1 trillion, with post-tax profitability nearing $50 billion and cash reserves exceeding $350 billion [4][5]. Group 1 - The transition of CEO has generated significant buzz in the business and investment communities since Buffett's unexpected announcement of retirement at the shareholder meeting in May [5]. - Buffett's cautious approach in recent years has slowed down the company's performance, with Berkshire's large cash holdings negatively impacting its results [6][7]. - As of December 29, 2025, Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares increased by 10.44%, lagging behind the S&P 500's 17.41% gain, and the company has underperformed the index over the past 3, 10, and 15 years [7]. Group 2 - Over 80% of Berkshire's revenue comes from the U.S., and the company has diversified its business, resembling a mutual fund in the stock market [8]. - Greg Abel, who has been with Berkshire for many years and has experience in managing its energy and non-insurance businesses, is seen as an unknown factor in the eyes of the public [9]. - Analysts note that while Abel has strong operational and financial management skills, he lacks the investment management experience and reputation that Buffett built over 60 years [10]. Group 3 - Buffett's investment strategy is characterized by a focus on value investing, viewing stocks as ownership in businesses and planning for long-term holds [30]. - His investment process involves thorough due diligence, recognizing quality companies, and waiting for exceptional opportunities to invest [30]. - Buffett's unique approach includes increasing his holdings when stock prices drop, contrasting with the typical investor behavior of selling during downturns [31]. Group 4 - Buffett's success is attributed to five core traits: alertness and decisiveness in judgment, simplicity in analysis, the ability to distinguish between great and mediocre investments, long-term focus, and flexibility in improving investment strategies [34][36]. - He has navigated various market conditions, maintaining exceptional performance despite increasing competition and market complexities [36]. - Buffett emphasizes the importance of investing in quality companies and holding them for the long term, which has proven to be a successful strategy [36][40]. Group 5 - Buffett's philanthropic efforts include a significant donation of $31 billion to the Gates Foundation, which doubled its annual funding capacity, and he co-founded the "Giving Pledge" to encourage billionaires to donate a majority of their wealth [62][63]. - His approach to investing and philanthropy reflects a commitment to traditional American values and a belief in the long-term potential of the U.S. economy [20][60]. - Buffett's legacy is not only in his financial achievements but also in his life philosophy, which emphasizes doing the right thing for businesses and shareholders [66].

Core Insights - The core perspective of the discussion revolves around the importance of understanding business models in investment and the significance of hard work in achieving success [1][4][6]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment is fundamentally about understanding the business and its model, with a strong emphasis on effort and diligence [1][4]. - Segmenting investments based on personal understanding of the business is crucial; for instance, the investment in Moutai is justified by personal connections and understanding of its market [2][5]. - The experience with investing in NetEase, which yielded a 20-fold return, highlights the importance of recognizing and understanding business operations rather than relying on luck [5][6]. Group 2: Views on Specific Companies - There is a strong belief in the potential of Moutai, with the assertion that it is a better investment than keeping money in the bank, although there may be other opportunities with higher returns [2]. - The investment in Apple is still viewed positively, emphasizing the difficulty of finding good companies and the importance of not selling too quickly after a profit [5][7]. Group 3: Personal Insights and Life Philosophy - The discussion includes reflections on personal effort and the misconception of talent, emphasizing that success comes from hard work rather than innate ability [8]. - The concept of "being grounded" is highlighted, which involves rational decision-making and a long-term perspective in business [8].

Group 1 - The price of 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1500 yuan per bottle, a decline of over 30% from its initial prices of 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan [1] - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has decreased by 6.15% this year, contrasting with the 16.69% increase in the CSI 300 index and 20.01% increase in the Moutai index [1] - The stock price of Guizhou Moutai has fallen from a historical high of 2627.88 yuan on February 18, 2021, to 1393.7 yuan currently, indicating a complete downward cycle [1] Group 2 - Investor Duan Yongping expressed confidence in Moutai, stating he sees no reason not to be optimistic about it [2] - Duan Yongping compared Moutai to Hi-Chew candy, suggesting that while it may be harder to predict Moutai's future compared to Coca-Cola, it still holds significant value [2] - He emphasized the importance of understanding the business behind Moutai, as many of his friends appreciate the brand [2] Group 3 - Duan Yongping shared his investment strategy during the plasticizer incident, starting to buy Moutai at around 180 yuan and continuing to purchase until it reached 120 yuan [3] - He mentioned that he sold all his shares in Shenhua to invest in Moutai during the same period [3] Group 4 - Duan Yongping believes that as long as the production process of 53-degree Feitian Moutai remains unchanged, the company can withstand management changes without significant harm [4] - He suggested that Moutai should enhance online sales and management to combat counterfeit products [4] - Analyst Ban Lin commented on Duan's long-term investment approach, noting that not all investors can afford to ignore short-term fluctuations like Duan does [4] Group 5 - Duan Yongping highlighted the challenges faced by retail investors, stating that 90% of speculative investors lose money regardless of market conditions [5] - He emphasized the importance of understanding the business rather than being influenced by market fluctuations [5] Group 6 - Duan Yongping expressed continued confidence in Apple as his primary investment, stating that finding a good company is challenging and that he prefers to hold rather than trade frequently [6] - He identified several companies he believes will outperform in the next decade, including Apple, Moutai, Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft, and Google [6] Group 7 - Duan Yongping acknowledged the potential of AI, stating it significantly improves efficiency and could lead to changes greater than those brought by the internet or the industrial revolution [12] - He warned that many companies associated with AI may not survive, but those that do could become the next Google or Amazon [12] - He noted that the demand for NVIDIA's products is likely to continue for some time, although competition may arise [13] Group 8 - Duan Yongping discussed the importance of a company's business model, as emphasized by Warren Buffett, stating that understanding the business model is crucial before considering the price [8][9] - He believes that a company's culture can significantly impact its success, which is why he favors companies like Apple [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of business and investment, highlighting that understanding one enhances the comprehension of the other. It advocates for defining one's "circle of competence" and staying within it to make informed investment decisions [5][12][30]. Group 1: Circle of Competence - Warren Buffett stresses the importance of identifying and operating within one's circle of competence, using the example of Mrs. Blumkin, who successfully ran a furniture business by only engaging in areas she understood [9][19][22]. - Many CEOs of large companies often lack experience in capital allocation, leading to poor acquisition decisions when they venture outside their expertise [10][24][25]. - The article suggests that having fewer but more informed investment opportunities can lead to better outcomes, contrasting this with the prevalent culture on Wall Street that encourages frequent trading [11][32][36]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach advocated is to focus on high-quality businesses and to wait patiently for clear opportunities, rather than being swayed by market noise [30][36][60]. - The article discusses the advantages of owning a portion of a great business, like Coca-Cola, rather than seeking to acquire entire companies, which often leads to overpaying in competitive bidding situations [36][39][44]. - It highlights the importance of investing one’s own capital, as seen in Berkshire Hathaway, where management invests a significant portion of their wealth, aligning their interests with those of shareholders [39][40]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article critiques the modern investment theory that equates price volatility with risk, arguing that buying undervalued assets can be safer than overpaying for perceived stability [75][78]. - It points out the challenges of global competition and the risks associated with investing in foreign markets, emphasizing a preference for companies registered in the U.S. [81][83]. - The discussion includes the notion that successful investments often come from understanding the underlying business rather than relying on market trends or speculation [57][60].

Core Points - Warren Buffett, the "Oracle of Omaha," has announced his retirement after 60 years at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway, marking the end of an era in investment management [1][2] - Buffett's investment philosophy emphasizes long-term holding and understanding businesses, avoiding trends he does not comprehend, such as technology stocks during the dot-com bubble [3][4] - He has committed to donating 99.5% of his wealth to charity, accelerating his philanthropic efforts post-retirement [5][6] Group 1: Retirement Announcement - Buffett, at 95 years old, will step down as CEO and cease writing annual reports, concluding his active role in the company [1] - His retirement has been a topic of discussion for decades, especially after the passing of his close friend Charlie Munger [2] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Buffett is known for his long-term investment strategy, preferring to hold stocks indefinitely and focusing on companies with competitive advantages [3] - He has consistently avoided investments in sectors he does not understand, such as real estate and cryptocurrencies, emphasizing the importance of knowledge in investment decisions [4] Group 3: Philanthropy and Legacy - Buffett has pledged to donate 99% of his wealth to charitable causes, with plans to increase the pace of his donations after retirement [5] - He reflects on his life and career in his farewell letter, acknowledging his mistakes and emphasizing the importance of learning from them [4][6]

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway's CEO Warren Buffett announced he will no longer write the annual report or give long speeches at the annual shareholder meeting, indicating a transition to a quieter role as he prepares to step down at the end of the year [1] - Buffett's leadership has resulted in an annualized return of 19.9% for Berkshire Hathaway from 1965 to 2024, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 10.4% during the same period [1][10] - Buffett's investment philosophy has evolved from the "cigar butt" strategy, focusing on undervalued companies, to a "moat" strategy, emphasizing companies with sustainable competitive advantages [7][9] Group 2 - Buffett's notable investments include purchasing 2.34 billion shares of PetroChina at approximately HKD 1.6 per share during the SARS outbreak, which he later sold for about HKD 13.5 per share, yielding a return of approximately 7 times [2] - In 2008, Buffett invested in BYD, acquiring 9.9% of the company, which later became a significant player in the electric vehicle market, resulting in a return of over HKD 600 billion from an initial investment of HKD 1.8 billion [2] - Buffett's investment in See's Candies in 1972 marked a shift to acquiring high-quality companies, which has since contributed over $13 billion in profits to Berkshire Hathaway [8][10] Group 3 - Berkshire Hathaway's business structure is characterized by a foundation in insurance, which provides low-cost float for investments, complemented by stable cash flows from various subsidiaries [11][12] - The company has significant holdings in sectors such as railroads and energy, with BNSF Railway accounting for 25% of North America's freight volume and Berkshire Hathaway Energy supplying 6% of the nation's electricity [13][14] - The investment portfolio is managed by Buffett, focusing on capital appreciation and income generation through strategic equity investments [16] Group 4 - Buffett's investment success is attributed to the favorable economic conditions in the U.S., including post-war economic growth and a low-interest-rate environment, which facilitated capital accumulation and investment opportunities [19][20] - The evolution of the market has made it increasingly difficult to replicate Buffett's investment success, as the efficiency of market pricing has improved, reducing the availability of deeply undervalued stocks [21][22] - The changing landscape of investment opportunities, particularly the rise of technology companies, presents challenges for Buffett's traditional investment framework, which has historically focused on consumer and industrial sectors [21][22] Group 5 - The lack of a comparable investment figure in China is attributed to the relatively short history of the A-share market and the absence of long-term investment practices [31][32] - The Chinese market has seen a scarcity of high-quality, long-term investment opportunities, compounded by issues such as corporate governance and a focus on short-term gains [34][35] - Despite these challenges, there is optimism for the future as the Chinese market continues to evolve, with expectations for more quality investment opportunities in sectors like technology and high-end manufacturing [37][38]

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett, at 95 years old, announced his retirement from writing Berkshire Hathaway's annual reports and speaking at shareholder meetings, marking the end of an era for the company and value investing [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - From 1964 to 2024, Berkshire Hathaway achieved an astonishing total return of 5,502,284%, compared to the S&P 500's return of 39,054% during the same period [2]. - The annualized compound return for Berkshire from 1965 to 2024 is 19.9%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 10.4% [2]. - In Q3, Berkshire's operating profit surged to $13.49 billion, a 34% increase year-over-year, while net profit reached $30.8 billion, up 17% [7]. Group 2: Leadership Transition - Buffett will continue as chairman but will step down as CEO, paving the way for Greg Abel to take over the role at the end of the year [8]. - Buffett praised Abel as an outstanding manager and communicator, indicating that his management style will be more effective for Berkshire's subsidiaries [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Buffett's investment philosophy has evolved over the decades, moving from "cigar butt" investing to focusing on high-quality companies, influenced significantly by Charlie Munger [5][11]. - Berkshire's top five holdings accounted for 66% and 71% of its total equity investments as of September 30, 2025, and December 31, 2024, respectively, with major stakes in American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron [8]. Group 4: Market Conditions - Berkshire has not repurchased any stock since the announcement of Buffett's retirement, and its cash reserves reached a record $381.7 billion by the end of Q3 [7]. - The company has been net selling stocks for 12 consecutive quarters, raising over $6 billion in cash through stock sales in Q3 alone [7]. - The valuation of U.S. stocks has reached historical highs, prompting Buffett to sell stocks as he perceives them to be overvalued [7].