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均衡配置 寻找确定性 年底私募投资“关键词”出炉
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-25 20:29
近日A股市场出现盘整。个股赚钱效应与市场人气同步减弱的背后,是内外因素交织下的资金集体避险 行为。面对这场调整,一线私募机构展现出了截然不同的应对之策。在11月中旬股票私募平均仓位创下 近112周新高的背景下,有的机构选择高仓位坚守,有的则通过衍生品进行风险对冲,有的机构积极调 整结构,为下一轮行情布局。 ● 本报记者王辉 多因素共振引发市场调整 止于至善则采用了更为精细的风险对冲手段。何理透露:"我们在市场处于高位时,会购买一些虚值看 跌期权来保护组合不发生极端回撤。" 涌津投资董事长谢小勇则更关注资金面因素,他认为"海外流动性再收紧"是重要诱因。10月末以来,美 联储态度转鹰,美元指数冲高导致外资资金短期净流出,对A股高估值科技板块形成直接压力。同时, 近期题材炒作监控趋严,两融与游资活跃度快速下降,短线资金被迫降杠杆,形成了"多头回吐"的局 面。 从资金行为角度来看,百亿级私募勤辰资产表示,临近年末,机构资金兑现浮盈等防守性行为自然会导 致市场出现短期波动。这一判断与涌津投资观察到的"年内最活跃的资金在11月集中兑现收益"现象不谋 而合。 另一家百亿级私募淡水泉则从更底层的市场逻辑出发,认为市场定价正从 ...
广发基金陈韫中:做成长股的“探路者” 均衡之中见锐度
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-16 23:09
Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategy of Chen Yunzong, a fund manager at GF Fund, focusing on identifying growth stocks and their growth stages through a dual-track approach of "traditional growth" and "emerging growth" [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Chen emphasizes a systematic approach to understanding industry attributes, industry cycle stages, and long-term trends before selecting quality growth stocks [1][2]. - The investment framework is centered around capturing excess returns from diverse growth directions, including technology and manufacturing sectors [2][3]. Performance Metrics - As of October 31, the GF Growth Initiation A fund managed by Chen achieved a one-year return of 88.81%, ranking in the top 3 out of 1,876 similar funds [1]. Fund Launch - A new fund, GF Innovation Growth, is set to launch on November 17, which will dynamically adjust the allocation between traditional and emerging growth to capture excess returns while maintaining industry balance [1][6]. Growth Categories - Growth stocks are categorized into "traditional growth" (e.g., new energy, semiconductors, military industry) and "emerging growth" (e.g., robotics, embodied intelligence, satellite internet) [2][5]. - Traditional growth strategies focus on cyclical growth, while emerging growth serves as an offensive tool for capturing future trends [2][3]. Dynamic Allocation - The allocation between traditional and emerging growth is adjusted based on market liquidity and risk appetite, enhancing both offensive and defensive capabilities of the portfolio [3][4]. Industry Rotation - Chen's investment approach involves a systematic method of industry rotation based on industry cycles, focusing on "industry position" and "valuation margins" rather than merely chasing market trends [4][5]. Future Focus Areas - Key sectors of interest include computing power, storage, edge innovation, brand globalization, robotics, satellite internet, and solid-state batteries [6][7]. - The computing power sector is particularly emphasized, with expectations of significant capital expenditure increases from domestic cloud service providers in the upcoming quarters [6][7]. Specific Sector Insights - The military industry is highlighted as a high-value sector, while the robotics sector is seen as a major application terminal for AI [7]. - Solid-state batteries and low-altitude economy are also critical areas of focus, with expectations of early breakthroughs in these technologies [7].
广发基金陈韫中:做成长股的“探路者”,均衡之中见锐度
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-16 23:03
Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategy of Chen Yunzong, a fund manager at GF Fund, focusing on growth stocks through a dual-track approach of "traditional growth" and "emerging growth" [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Chen emphasizes the importance of understanding industry cycles and long-term trends before selecting quality growth stocks, aiming to optimize buying and selling timing based on industry cycles [1][2]. - The investment framework includes a focus on diverse growth sectors such as technology and manufacturing, moving beyond just TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) to include areas like military and energy [2]. Growth Categories - Growth stocks are categorized into "traditional growth" (e.g., new energy, semiconductors, military) and "emerging growth," with differentiated strategies for each [2][3]. - Traditional growth is approached with a "cyclical growth" mindset, focusing on sectors undergoing industrial changes, while emerging growth serves as an "offensive lever" targeting future trends like robotics and quantum computing [2][5]. Dynamic Portfolio Management - The portfolio management strategy involves dynamically adjusting the allocation between traditional and emerging growth based on market liquidity and risk appetite [3]. - When market conditions are favorable, the allocation to emerging growth increases; conversely, it shifts towards traditional growth during risk-averse periods [3]. Industry Rotation Approach - Chen's investment approach to industry rotation is systematic, focusing on the balance between "industry position" and "valuation margins," rather than merely chasing market trends [4]. - A significant portion of research efforts is dedicated to tracking emerging growth sectors, leveraging insights from industry leaders and global comparisons [4][5]. Forward-Looking Investment Areas - The new fund, GF Innovation Growth, will adopt a balanced growth-oriented strategy, targeting sectors like computing power, storage, and robotics [6]. - Chen identifies opportunities in domestic computing power, which is expected to see increased capital expenditure from cloud service providers, and anticipates a positive cycle in the storage sector [6][7]. Specific Sector Focus - The military sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a favorable risk-reward profile [7]. - The robotics sector is viewed as a significant application of AI, with the domestic industry yet to be fully valued [7]. - Solid-state batteries and low-altitude economy are also critical areas of focus, with expectations for early breakthroughs in solid-state battery applications [7].
做成长股的“探路者” 均衡之中见锐度
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-16 20:13
Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategy of Chen Yunzong, a fund manager at GF Fund, focusing on identifying growth stocks and their respective growth stages through a dual-track approach of "traditional growth" and "emerging growth" [1][2] Investment Strategy - Chen Yunzong emphasizes a systematic approach to understanding industry attributes, clarifying industry cycle stages and medium to long-term trends before selecting quality growth stocks [1][2] - The investment framework is centered around capturing excess returns from diverse growth directions, including technology and manufacturing sectors, while also expanding research beyond TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) to include military and energy sectors [2] Growth Categories - Growth stocks are categorized into "traditional growth" and "emerging growth," with differentiated strategies for each. Traditional growth includes sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military, where a cyclical growth mindset is applied [2] - Emerging growth serves as an "offensive lever" in the portfolio, focusing on sectors like robotics, embodied intelligence, satellite internet, quantum computing, and solid-state batteries, which are expected to represent future trends [2][3] Dynamic Allocation - The allocation between traditional and emerging growth is dynamically adjusted based on market liquidity and risk appetite, enhancing the portfolio's offensive capabilities in bull markets and defensive strength in volatile markets [2][3] Industry Rotation - Chen Yunzong's investment approach involves industry rotation based on a systematic method rather than merely chasing market trends, focusing on the balance between "industry position" and "valuation margins" [3] - A significant portion of research efforts is dedicated to tracking emerging growth directions, involving visits to industry leaders and studying cutting-edge trends globally [3] Future Growth Areas - The new fund, GF Innovation Growth, will adopt a balanced growth-oriented strategy, targeting sectors such as computing power, storage, edge innovation, brand globalization, robotics, satellite internet, and solid-state batteries [4] - The computing power sector is highlighted as a key focus, with expectations of significant capital expenditure increases from domestic cloud service providers in the upcoming quarters [5] Market Outlook - The storage sector is anticipated to enter an upward cycle, with NAND flash memory prices beginning to rise since September, expected to maintain favorable industry conditions for one to two more quarters [5] - The military sector is viewed as having high cost-effectiveness, while the robotics sector is seen as a major application terminal for AI, with the domestic robotics supply chain not yet fully priced [5]
广发基金陈韫中: 做成长股的“探路者” 均衡之中见锐度
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-16 20:09
Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategy of Chen Yunzong, a fund manager at GF Fund, focusing on the dual-track approach of "traditional growth" and "emerging growth" in identifying investment opportunities in growth stocks [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Chen Yunzong emphasizes a systematic approach to understanding industry attributes, identifying industry cycle stages, and selecting quality growth stocks [1][2]. - The investment framework includes a focus on both traditional growth sectors (like new energy, semiconductors, and military industry) and emerging growth sectors (such as robotics, embodied intelligence, and quantum computing) [2][5]. - The strategy involves dynamic adjustment of the allocation between traditional and emerging growth based on market liquidity and risk appetite [3][4]. Performance Metrics - As of October 31, the GF Growth Initiation A fund managed by Chen Yunzong achieved a one-year return of 88.81%, ranking in the top 3 out of 1,876 similar funds [1]. Sector Focus - Key sectors of interest include computing power, storage, edge innovation, brand globalization, robotics, satellite internet, and solid-state batteries [6][7]. - The computing power sector is particularly highlighted, with a focus on both overseas and domestic opportunities, as domestic cloud service providers are expected to significantly increase capital expenditures [6]. Emerging Trends - The article discusses the importance of understanding the lifecycle of growth assets, which typically transition from thematic phases to technological implementation and then to scale expansion [5]. - Solid-state batteries are identified as a critical component for the development of robotics and drones, with expectations for early breakthroughs in this area [7].
兼顾传统成长与新兴成长 绩优基金经理捕捉轮动行情
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-11-12 18:42
Group 1 - The stock market has experienced increased volatility since late October, but growth-style assets remain a key focus for capital, influenced by the Federal Reserve's second interest rate cut of the year and China's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing support for emerging technology sectors [1] - The market is characterized by a structural differentiation, with funds shifting towards specific segments like storage and energy, while previously popular sectors like optical modules are in a consolidation phase [1] - The growth style is overall dominant this year, but leading sub-industries vary at different stages, with technology and energy sectors taking turns in leading performance [1] Group 2 - Chen Yunzhong, a mid-career fund manager with nearly 10 years in the securities industry and over 4 years of investment experience, has achieved significant returns, including a 46.82% return in the Guangfa Small Cap Select A fund, surpassing the benchmark by 36 percentage points [2] - His management strategy involves dividing growth tracks into traditional and emerging growth, focusing on sectors with strong certainty and leveraging top companies to capture industry beta and stock alpha [2] - Traditional growth sectors include "new semi-military" areas such as new energy, semiconductors, and military industry, characterized by mature industry development and specific cycles [2] Group 3 - Emerging growth sectors are in the early stages of industrialization, focusing on technologies like embodied intelligence, new storage and computing, satellite internet, quantum computing, and solid-state batteries, which are also highlighted in the national technology plan [3] - Chen Yunzhong emphasizes the need for tactical trading in these volatile assets, successfully timing entry and exit points to capture upward trends while avoiding significant downturns [3] - Current promising growth directions include computing power, storage, edge innovation, brand internationalization, robotics, satellite internet, and solid-state batteries, with a particular focus on domestic cloud service providers expected to increase capital expenditures significantly in the coming months [3]
聚焦A股优质龙头的中证A500ETF(560510)翻红上涨0.44%,中国股市动能回升,重新成资本流入重要目的地
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 06:39
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is regaining attractiveness for global asset management companies, with a significant potential for capital inflow as market momentum improves [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 5, 2025, the China Securities A500 ETF (560510) rose by 0.44%, with a trading volume of 62.25 million yuan [1]. - The underlying index, the China Securities A500 Index (000510), increased by 0.45% [1]. - Notable performers among the constituent stocks include Dongfang Risheng (300118) up 12.44%, Defang Nano (300769) up 12.14%, and Nandu Power (300068) up 11.24% [1]. Group 2: Investment Outlook - CICC forecasts a potential shift in market style, with large-cap growth stocks expected to outperform in the medium term (3 to 6 months) [2]. - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive of emerging growth sectors, driven by economic recovery, rapid technological iteration, and favorable industrial policies [2]. - Institutional ownership concentration in A-shares is expected to increase, particularly in large-cap emerging growth stocks [2]. Group 3: Index Characteristics - The China Securities A500 Index selects 500 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity from various industries, reflecting the overall performance of representative listed companies [2]. - The index has a strong market representation and higher coverage of emerging sectors, making it a valuable tool for capturing core strengths in economic transformation [2].
股票策略私募连续三周加仓管理人瞄准新成长板块
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-08-31 14:15
Core Insights - The stock private equity positions have increased for three consecutive weeks, with the stock private equity position index reaching 75.55% as of August 22, marking a 0.69 percentage point increase from the previous week [1][2] - The index has shown a significant upward trend since August, with a cumulative increase of 1.62 percentage points [2] - 55.29% of stock private equity positions are at full capacity (over 80% allocation), indicating strong confidence in the market [2] Investment Focus - Private equity firms are focusing on emerging growth sectors such as new consumption and technology [6] - Specific areas of interest include robotics, domestic computing power, AI applications, liquid cooling, and military industry sectors, as well as new consumption and media sectors with strong half-year performance [7] - The innovative drug sector is also gaining attention due to benefits from overseas licensing and domestic market expansion [7] Market Sentiment - The high positions reflect optimism among top private equity firms regarding the Chinese economy and market liquidity [5] - The current stock market risk premium remains high, suggesting that the stock market offers attractive value [5] - There is an expectation of a new upward cycle in the market as corporate earnings are anticipated to rebound due to supportive policies and a reversal of the downward trend in profitability [5] Scale Analysis - Among private equity firms, those managing over 50 billion yuan have high positions, with over 50% at full capacity [1][3] - The position index for large private equity firms (over 100 billion yuan) is 78.11%, while those in the 50-100 billion yuan range have a position index of 82.23%, with a notable increase of 3.55 percentage points for the latter [3][4] - A significant portion of these firms, 69.18% in the 50-100 billion yuan range, are fully invested, indicating strong market confidence [3] Strategic Opportunities - The focus on high-end manufacturing and internet sectors is driven by the presence of globally competitive Chinese companies, which are expected to see value reassessment [7] - The trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas is shifting from manufacturing to service sectors, highlighting opportunities in the consumer entertainment industry [7] - Technological advancements in chip design, manufacturing, and AI capabilities are expected to create numerous investment opportunities [7]
牛市掘金科创板!陈果:估值处历史低位,景气赛道清晰,国产算力、医疗器械值得关注
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-08-18 09:32
Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has strongly broken through a 10-year high, igniting market enthusiasm, with a focus on investment directions post "bull market confirmation" [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) and the ChiNext Board are currently seen as good investment directions, representing emerging growth and technology industries [1] - Key sectors associated with these boards include AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and other frontier fields, indicating a strong correlation with the two indices [1] - Historical valuation analysis shows that both the STAR Market and ChiNext Board are currently below their historical average valuation levels, suggesting valuation attractiveness [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The STAR Market is concentrated in core industries such as semiconductors, domestic computing power, and medical devices, while the ChiNext Board has a more diversified composition including fintech, overseas computing power tech companies, and some new energy firms [2] - Current investment opportunities are spread across the STAR Market, ChiNext Board, and even the Hang Seng Tech Index, contrasting with the 2014-2015 period when the ChiNext Board was the sole focus [2] - Given the current valuations below historical averages and clear growth prospects in core hard-tech sectors, the STAR Market offers significant opportunities for investors [2]
淡水泉投资:下半年看好AI产业链等科技板块投资机会
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-02 04:01
Group 1 - The A-share market showed strong performance in the first half of the year, driven by AI trends and sector rotations led by new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - The trading sentiment in the A-share market improved significantly compared to last year, indicating a noticeable increase in market activity and profit-making opportunities [1] - Growth assets across various sectors, including technology, new energy vehicles, consumption, and pharmaceuticals, are experiencing valuation increases, attracting active capital seeking growth potential [1] Group 2 - New consumption emerged as a key market focus in the second quarter, with companies adapting to personalized and diversified consumption trends, aligning well with market preferences for growth [2] - Emerging growth opportunities are expected to expand from new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals to technology and cyclical industries, with a positive outlook on investments in the AI industry chain, domestic semiconductor equipment, and chips [2] - High-end manufacturing is also seen as a growth opportunity, alongside leading companies with cyclical growth attributes, which are expected to show more significant upward valuation elasticity [2]