新 3 社 主管主办 上海灣券報 1 |中国址 参加 市场回顾 周一早盘,伦敦现货黄金盘中突破3770美 元/盎司 上周五,美股三大指数收盘全线上涨 国 际 宏 观 美联储10月降息25个基点的概率为89.3% 俄总统普京愿与美国总统特朗普在莫斯科 会晤 机 构 观点 摩根大通提醒美股五大潜在风险 一周前瞻 美国本周五将公布9月非农就业报告 【市场回顾】 周一，日本股市开盘下跌，日经225指数跌0.53%。 【国际宏观】 9月29日，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为10.7%，降息25个基点的概率为89.3%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为2.9%，累计降 息25个基点的概率为32.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为64.9%。 据新华社消息，塔斯社28日援引俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫的话报道说，俄总统普京愿与美国总统特朗普在莫斯科会晤，决定权在美方。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间9月28日，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐致函多国外长，驳斥美国及英国、法国、德国企图通过所谓"快速恢复机制"恢复已废止的联 合国安理会涉伊核问题决议，称这一做法非法且毫无依据。 【机构观点】 摩根大通在最新研报中称，尽管标 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【苯乙烯本周价格震荡偏强，后续或易跌难涨】9月18日消息，本周苯乙烯价格震荡偏强。截至9月17 日，江苏市场收盘均价7185元/吨，较上周三涨75元/吨，涨幅1.05%。 成本方面，国际油价先跌后涨， 截至9月17日，布伦特油价较上周三涨0.46美元/桶，涨幅0.68%；纯苯价格也偏强，华东市场收盘均价 较上周三涨1.05%。 供需上，淄博峻辰、唐山旭阳装置重启后稳定运行，但浙石化装置有计划外停车和 降负荷情况，周产量由增转减；华东主港由去库转小幅累库；主力下游产量消费量变化有限。 预测显 示，美联储降息对商品市场影响有限，苯乙烯市场回归基本面。虽供应有计划外减量，但需求采购平 淡，双节前北方工厂或低价排库，市场易跌难涨。 ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on cross-asset timing strategies for interest rates, systematically backtesting various assets (including stock indices, commodities, and bonds) to identify performance under different market conditions [1]. Group 1: Cross-Asset Rotation Effects - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect arises from shifts in risk appetite, where strong economic expectations lead to capital flowing into equity markets, putting pressure on bond prices and raising yields [2][14]. - The relationship between commodities and bonds is closely tied to inflation expectations, with rising commodity prices typically leading to higher inflation and interest rates, which suppress bond valuations [2][14]. Group 2: Timing Strategies in Commodity and Equity Markets - In equity markets, strategies focused on volatility structures yield higher excess returns compared to trend-based moving average strategies, particularly in high-volatility environments [3]. - For commodities, timing strategies exhibit high odds and low win rates, aligning with the trend-driven nature of commodity trading. Multi-signal strategies outperform in various market conditions due to their adaptability [3][51]. Group 3: Cross-Asset Timing Strategies - The report employs a "cross-validation signal triggering method" for each asset, enhancing the robustness of cross-asset timing strategies. The "look at stocks, trade bonds" and "look at commodities, trade bonds" approaches aim to mitigate drawdowns while maintaining excess returns [4][86]. Group 4: Future Optimization Outlook - A dynamic weighting mechanism is proposed to adjust the importance of different market signals based on macroeconomic conditions, enhancing the adaptability of strategies over time [5]. - The report suggests exploring pair trading strategies in the foreign exchange market to provide additional support for cross-asset trading logic [5].

Core Viewpoint - Styrene prices experienced a slight rebound after a decline, with the average closing price in Jiangsu market at 7325 yuan/ton as of August 6, reflecting a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous week [1] Cost Analysis - The oil market has been under pressure with continuous negative news, leading to a decline in international oil prices, which fell by 8.67% as of August 6 compared to the previous Wednesday [1] - Pure benzene prices initially dropped but later increased, influenced by weak crude oil and futures market conditions, while a tightening supply in the north contributed to the price rise, with the average price in East China down by 20 yuan/ton as of August 6 [1] - The raw material sector lacks a unilateral driving force [1] Supply and Demand - Throughout the week, except for CNOOC Shell which faced production losses due to equipment issues, other facilities maintained stable production [1] - The main port in East China experienced reduced arrivals due to typhoon impacts, leading to a decrease in inventory, although market supply remains sufficient [1] - The output of the main downstream product, three S, is expected to see a slight increase, but the purchasing intentions at the beginning of the month remain low [1] - The supply and demand fundamentals continue to show weakness [1] Forecast - Styrene prices are expected to follow fluctuations in the bulk commodity market in the short term, with the raw material sector unlikely to show a clear direction [1] - The ongoing weak supply and demand fundamentals may be exacerbated by the commissioning of the Jingbo Sida Rui facility, which could further intensify supply-demand conflicts and pressure prices to remain weak [1]

高盛：预计布伦特油价和WTI原油价格将在2025年剩余时间内小幅下跌，均价分别为63美元和59美元， 并将在2026年达到58美元和55美元。 ...