Market Overview - On Monday, the Japanese stock market opened lower, with the Nikkei 225 index down by 0.53% [4] - London spot gold prices broke through $3770 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures fell below $3800 per ounce. Last week, London spot gold saw a cumulative increase of over 2%, and COMEX gold futures rose nearly 1.9% [4] - International oil prices declined on Monday, with WTI crude oil opening down over 1%. Last week, WTI crude oil had a cumulative increase of over 4.5%, while Brent crude oil rose more than 4% [4] - On Friday, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% to 46247.29 points, the Nasdaq up 0.44% to 22484.07 points, and the S&P 500 up 0.59% to 6643.70 points. However, for the week, all three indices experienced a pullback, with the Dow down 0.15%, the Nasdaq down 0.65%, and the S&P 500 down 0.31% [4] International Macro - As of September 29, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 10.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 89.3%. For December, the probability of maintaining rates is 2.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 32.2% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 64.9% [5] Institutional Insights - JPMorgan's latest report indicates that while the S&P 500 index may aim for the 7000-point mark by year-end, investors should be cautious of several potential risks that could lead to market volatility. These risks include seasonal factors, excessive rebound magnitude, prolonged lack of correction, overheated retail investor sentiment, and macro events materializing [7] Weekly Outlook - The U.S. will release the September non-farm payroll report this Friday. Prior to this, key data to watch includes the August JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the September ADP private employment data on Wednesday, and the weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday [8]

Core Viewpoint - Styrene prices have shown a fluctuating yet strong trend this week, with expectations of potential declines in the future due to weak demand and supply adjustments [1] Price Trends - As of September 17, the average closing price of styrene in the Jiangsu market was 7185 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 1.05% compared to the previous Wednesday [1] Cost Factors - International oil prices experienced a decline followed by an increase, with Brent crude oil rising by $0.46 per barrel or 0.68% as of September 17 [1] - The price of pure benzene also showed strength, with the average closing price in the East China market increasing by 1.05% compared to the previous Wednesday [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The restart of production at Zibo Junchen and Tangshan Xuyang facilities has stabilized operations, while Zhejiang Petrochemical has planned outages and reduced load, leading to a shift from increased to decreased weekly output [1] - The main port in East China has transitioned from inventory depletion to a slight accumulation, with limited changes in production and consumption from major downstream sectors [1] Market Predictions - Predictions indicate that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will have a limited impact on the commodity market, suggesting that the styrene market will revert to its fundamentals [1] - Despite planned supply reductions, demand remains tepid, and northern factories may resort to low-price inventory clearance before the upcoming double festival, making the market more prone to declines than increases [1]

Core Insights - The report focuses on cross-asset timing strategies for interest rates, systematically backtesting various assets (including stock indices, commodities, and bonds) to identify performance under different market conditions [1]. Group 1: Cross-Asset Rotation Effects - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect arises from shifts in risk appetite, where strong economic expectations lead to capital flowing into equity markets, putting pressure on bond prices and raising yields [2][14]. - The relationship between commodities and bonds is closely tied to inflation expectations, with rising commodity prices typically leading to higher inflation and interest rates, which suppress bond valuations [2][14]. Group 2: Timing Strategies in Commodity and Equity Markets - In equity markets, strategies focused on volatility structures yield higher excess returns compared to trend-based moving average strategies, particularly in high-volatility environments [3]. - For commodities, timing strategies exhibit high odds and low win rates, aligning with the trend-driven nature of commodity trading. Multi-signal strategies outperform in various market conditions due to their adaptability [3][51]. Group 3: Cross-Asset Timing Strategies - The report employs a "cross-validation signal triggering method" for each asset, enhancing the robustness of cross-asset timing strategies. The "look at stocks, trade bonds" and "look at commodities, trade bonds" approaches aim to mitigate drawdowns while maintaining excess returns [4][86]. Group 4: Future Optimization Outlook - A dynamic weighting mechanism is proposed to adjust the importance of different market signals based on macroeconomic conditions, enhancing the adaptability of strategies over time [5]. - The report suggests exploring pair trading strategies in the foreign exchange market to provide additional support for cross-asset trading logic [5].

Core Viewpoint - Styrene prices experienced a slight rebound after a decline, with the average closing price in Jiangsu market at 7325 yuan/ton as of August 6, reflecting a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous week [1] Cost Analysis - The oil market has been under pressure with continuous negative news, leading to a decline in international oil prices, which fell by 8.67% as of August 6 compared to the previous Wednesday [1] - Pure benzene prices initially dropped but later increased, influenced by weak crude oil and futures market conditions, while a tightening supply in the north contributed to the price rise, with the average price in East China down by 20 yuan/ton as of August 6 [1] - The raw material sector lacks a unilateral driving force [1] Supply and Demand - Throughout the week, except for CNOOC Shell which faced production losses due to equipment issues, other facilities maintained stable production [1] - The main port in East China experienced reduced arrivals due to typhoon impacts, leading to a decrease in inventory, although market supply remains sufficient [1] - The output of the main downstream product, three S, is expected to see a slight increase, but the purchasing intentions at the beginning of the month remain low [1] - The supply and demand fundamentals continue to show weakness [1] Forecast - Styrene prices are expected to follow fluctuations in the bulk commodity market in the short term, with the raw material sector unlikely to show a clear direction [1] - The ongoing weak supply and demand fundamentals may be exacerbated by the commissioning of the Jingbo Sida Rui facility, which could further intensify supply-demand conflicts and pressure prices to remain weak [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices and WTI crude oil prices to experience a slight decline for the remainder of 2025, with average prices projected at $63 and $59 respectively, and further decreasing to $58 and $55 in 2026 [1] Price Projections - Brent crude oil price is anticipated to average $63 in 2025 and $58 in 2026 [1] - WTI crude oil price is projected to average $59 in 2025 and $55 in 2026 [1]