早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 3 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | 1、特朗普称，伊朗"是一个大国"，对其军事行动可能需要约四周时间完成，"或 | 者更短"，这是"目前政府对军事行动时间线的预期判断"。英国、法国和德国领 | | | | | | | | | | 导人发表联合声明，表示可能对伊朗采取"必要的防御行动"。 | | | | | | | | | | | 2、伊朗革命卫队发了一份 | 8 | 号通告。通告说，他们在波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡区域， | 用导弹击中了 | 3 | 艘"违规"的美英油轮。阿曼官方的通报，一 ...

美联储内部分歧加剧，降息预期生变 在2月23日期货日报全新打造的深度对话直播栏目"期货相对论"第二期中，全球帝纳波利点位交易法专 家、美国黄金率投资咨询有限公司总经理曾星认为，近期美国市场发生的两件大事对美联储未来的货币 政策路径及全球市场构成了潜在的重大影响。第一，美联储公布的1月货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储 官员在利率前景问题上出现明显分歧，降息、暂停降息、加息三种可能性均被提及。第二，美国商务部 经济分析局（BEA）最新公布的数据显示，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——美国2025年12月核心PCE物价 指数同比增长3.0%，环比增长0.4%，均高于预期。目前，市场对美联储降息的预期减弱，甚至有交易 员认为可能会加息。 春节假期期间，全球宏观面不平静，美国关税政策突变、地缘冲突发酵等重大事件接连发生，引发主要 资产价格剧烈波动，这为节后国内市场开盘增添了几分不确定性。 春节假期间国际市场重大事件及外盘品种涨跌如何影响国内市场？哪些品种有补涨的机会？交易者该如 何应对？我们来看看专业人士的观点。 | 令和 | 2.13 | 2.23 | 价格波动 | 价格 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

来源：期货日报 春节假期期间，全球宏观面不平静，美国关税政策突变、地缘冲突发酵等重大事件接连发生，引发主要 资产价格剧烈波动，这为节后国内市场开盘增添了几分不确定性。 春节假期间国际市场重大事件及外盘品种涨跌如何影响国内市场？哪些品种有补涨的机会？交易者该如 何应对？我们来看看专业人士的观点。 | 合约 | 2.13 | 2.23 | 价格波动 | 价格 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国内收盘 | 18时价格 | | 波动比例 | | CMX银 | 77.135 | 86.505 | 9.37 | 12.15% | | 美原油 | 62.83 | 66.18 | 3.35 | 5.33% | | 布伦特油 | 67.54 | 71.01 | 3.47 | 5.14% | | 美豆油 | 57.26 | 59.72 | 2.46 | 4.30% | | CMX金 | 4987.5 | 5170.8 | 183.3 | 3.68% | | 日胶 | 347.1 | 358.3 | 11.2 | 3.23% | | 美白糖 | 13.53 | 13.89 | 0.36 ...

Core Viewpoint - Styrene prices experienced a decline followed by a slight rebound, with the average closing price in Jiangsu at 7620 yuan/ton as of February 11, down 310 yuan/ton or 3.91% from February 4 [1] Cost Analysis - International oil prices fluctuated, primarily influenced by negotiations between the U.S. and a Middle Eastern country, with Brent crude oil closing at a decrease of $0.06 per barrel as of February 11 [1] - Pure benzene prices initially fell due to the end of downstream stocking, but later rebounded slightly as market expectations shifted towards tighter supply post-Spring Festival, with the average price in East China down 1.54% from the previous Wednesday [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic production increased more than expected due to the restart of facilities by companies such as Xinyang Technology, Sinochem Quanzhou, and Tianjin Bohua; however, production of key downstream products like PS and EPS decreased, while ABS saw a slight increase, indicating continued weak consumption [1] - Main port arrivals were insufficient to meet demand, leading to a decrease in inventory levels [1] Market Forecast - As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamental supply-demand balance is expected to weaken, putting pressure on prices; however, actual trading in the East China spot market remains limited, with prices primarily driven by expectations [1] - Current market sentiment leans towards a lower accumulation of inventory at main ports post-Spring Festival and a favorable macroeconomic outlook, providing support for prices [1] - In the context of the ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, short-term styrene prices may exhibit a strong consolidation trend [1]

Market Overview - On Monday, the Japanese stock market opened lower, with the Nikkei 225 index down by 0.53% [4] - London spot gold prices broke through $3770 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures fell below $3800 per ounce. Last week, London spot gold saw a cumulative increase of over 2%, and COMEX gold futures rose nearly 1.9% [4] - International oil prices declined on Monday, with WTI crude oil opening down over 1%. Last week, WTI crude oil had a cumulative increase of over 4.5%, while Brent crude oil rose more than 4% [4] - On Friday, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% to 46247.29 points, the Nasdaq up 0.44% to 22484.07 points, and the S&P 500 up 0.59% to 6643.70 points. However, for the week, all three indices experienced a pullback, with the Dow down 0.15%, the Nasdaq down 0.65%, and the S&P 500 down 0.31% [4] International Macro - As of September 29, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 10.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 89.3%. For December, the probability of maintaining rates is 2.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 32.2% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 64.9% [5] Institutional Insights - JPMorgan's latest report indicates that while the S&P 500 index may aim for the 7000-point mark by year-end, investors should be cautious of several potential risks that could lead to market volatility. These risks include seasonal factors, excessive rebound magnitude, prolonged lack of correction, overheated retail investor sentiment, and macro events materializing [7] Weekly Outlook - The U.S. will release the September non-farm payroll report this Friday. Prior to this, key data to watch includes the August JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the September ADP private employment data on Wednesday, and the weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday [8]

Core Viewpoint - Styrene prices have shown a fluctuating yet strong trend this week, with expectations of potential declines in the future due to weak demand and supply adjustments [1] Price Trends - As of September 17, the average closing price of styrene in the Jiangsu market was 7185 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 1.05% compared to the previous Wednesday [1] Cost Factors - International oil prices experienced a decline followed by an increase, with Brent crude oil rising by $0.46 per barrel or 0.68% as of September 17 [1] - The price of pure benzene also showed strength, with the average closing price in the East China market increasing by 1.05% compared to the previous Wednesday [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The restart of production at Zibo Junchen and Tangshan Xuyang facilities has stabilized operations, while Zhejiang Petrochemical has planned outages and reduced load, leading to a shift from increased to decreased weekly output [1] - The main port in East China has transitioned from inventory depletion to a slight accumulation, with limited changes in production and consumption from major downstream sectors [1] Market Predictions - Predictions indicate that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will have a limited impact on the commodity market, suggesting that the styrene market will revert to its fundamentals [1] - Despite planned supply reductions, demand remains tepid, and northern factories may resort to low-price inventory clearance before the upcoming double festival, making the market more prone to declines than increases [1]

Core Insights - The report focuses on cross-asset timing strategies for interest rates, systematically backtesting various assets (including stock indices, commodities, and bonds) to identify performance under different market conditions [1]. Group 1: Cross-Asset Rotation Effects - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect arises from shifts in risk appetite, where strong economic expectations lead to capital flowing into equity markets, putting pressure on bond prices and raising yields [2][14]. - The relationship between commodities and bonds is closely tied to inflation expectations, with rising commodity prices typically leading to higher inflation and interest rates, which suppress bond valuations [2][14]. Group 2: Timing Strategies in Commodity and Equity Markets - In equity markets, strategies focused on volatility structures yield higher excess returns compared to trend-based moving average strategies, particularly in high-volatility environments [3]. - For commodities, timing strategies exhibit high odds and low win rates, aligning with the trend-driven nature of commodity trading. Multi-signal strategies outperform in various market conditions due to their adaptability [3][51]. Group 3: Cross-Asset Timing Strategies - The report employs a "cross-validation signal triggering method" for each asset, enhancing the robustness of cross-asset timing strategies. The "look at stocks, trade bonds" and "look at commodities, trade bonds" approaches aim to mitigate drawdowns while maintaining excess returns [4][86]. Group 4: Future Optimization Outlook - A dynamic weighting mechanism is proposed to adjust the importance of different market signals based on macroeconomic conditions, enhancing the adaptability of strategies over time [5]. - The report suggests exploring pair trading strategies in the foreign exchange market to provide additional support for cross-asset trading logic [5].

Core Viewpoint - Styrene prices experienced a slight rebound after a decline, with the average closing price in Jiangsu market at 7325 yuan/ton as of August 6, reflecting a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous week [1] Cost Analysis - The oil market has been under pressure with continuous negative news, leading to a decline in international oil prices, which fell by 8.67% as of August 6 compared to the previous Wednesday [1] - Pure benzene prices initially dropped but later increased, influenced by weak crude oil and futures market conditions, while a tightening supply in the north contributed to the price rise, with the average price in East China down by 20 yuan/ton as of August 6 [1] - The raw material sector lacks a unilateral driving force [1] Supply and Demand - Throughout the week, except for CNOOC Shell which faced production losses due to equipment issues, other facilities maintained stable production [1] - The main port in East China experienced reduced arrivals due to typhoon impacts, leading to a decrease in inventory, although market supply remains sufficient [1] - The output of the main downstream product, three S, is expected to see a slight increase, but the purchasing intentions at the beginning of the month remain low [1] - The supply and demand fundamentals continue to show weakness [1] Forecast - Styrene prices are expected to follow fluctuations in the bulk commodity market in the short term, with the raw material sector unlikely to show a clear direction [1] - The ongoing weak supply and demand fundamentals may be exacerbated by the commissioning of the Jingbo Sida Rui facility, which could further intensify supply-demand conflicts and pressure prices to remain weak [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices and WTI crude oil prices to experience a slight decline for the remainder of 2025, with average prices projected at $63 and $59 respectively, and further decreasing to $58 and $55 in 2026 [1] Price Projections - Brent crude oil price is anticipated to average $63 in 2025 and $58 in 2026 [1] - WTI crude oil price is projected to average $59 in 2025 and $55 in 2026 [1]