2025年世界互联网大会乌镇峰会11月7日开幕。 阿里巴巴集团CEO吴泳铭在开幕式致辞时表示，AI技术向"通用人工智能（AGI）"加速演进，最终将实 现"超级人工智能（ASI）"。面向这场智能化革命，阿里巴巴正在加大投入打造超级AI云，以全栈AI能 力推动开源开放和技术普惠。 在2025年世界互联网大会"互联网之光"博览会上，阿里巴巴还展出了首款自研的夸克AI眼镜。 实现"超级人工智能"还需要很长时间 吴泳铭表示，AI发展将经历三个阶段： 第一个阶段是智能涌现，这也是过去几年的主线。AI通过学习海量人类知识，理解人类意图，逐渐进 入真实世界解决问题、创造价值。这个阶段AI的特征是"学习人"。 第二个阶段是通向"通用人工智能（AGI）"，现在正处在这个阶段。当人们向AI提出需求，AI Agent已 经能够完成非常多的数字世界的工作，并通过接口连接真实世界，操作部分物理设备。这个阶段AI的 特征是"辅助人"。 第三个阶段则是实现"超级人工智能（ASI）"，AI连接真实世界的全量原始数据，具备自主学习、自我 迭代的能力。这个阶段AI的特征是"超越人"——还需要非常长的时间。 从智能涌现到通用人工智能，再到超级人工智 ...

吴泳铭认为，AI发展将经历智能涌现、通用人工智能（AGI）和"超级人工智能（ASI）"三个阶段。而AI革命带来的超大规模计算需求，需要超大规模基础 设施和全栈技术积累，只有超级AI云才能够承载正在催生下一代计算机：超级AI云。 阿里巴巴集团CEO吴泳铭 不再谈电商，也不再谈数字经济，在官方背景的行业大会上，阿里巴巴再次释放了对AI的理解与决心。 11月7日上午，2025年世界互联网大会乌镇峰会开幕式上，阿里巴巴集团CEO吴泳铭出席并发表演讲。 为此，阿里云的定位是全栈人工智能服务商，提供世界领先的智能能力和遍布全球的AI云计算网络，向全球各地提供开发者友好的AI服务。这意味着，阿 里云不再只是提供计算资源，而要贯通"模型训练、推理、部署、优化"全链条。 在吴泳铭看来，我们现在正处在人工智能发展的第二阶段的开端。也就是说，AGI已经不是未来，而已经到来了。而这个表现则是："当我们向AI提出需 求，AI Agent现在已经能够完成非常多的数字世界的工作，并通过接口连接真实世界，操作部分物理设备。这个阶段AI的特征是'辅助人'。" 在过去两年，中国AI竞争的叙事几乎被AI模型和AI应用革命主导，而在模型和应用层竞争 ...

证券研究报告 商贸零售 | 互联网电商 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 06 日 证券分析师 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 陈逸凡 SAC：S1350525040003 chenyifan@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 年 | | 11 月 | 05 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 158.50 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | 186.20/77.35 | | | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | 3,025,549.02 | | | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | 3,025,549.02 | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 40.81 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK) 投资评级： 买入（维持） ——FY26Q2 预计阿里云营收增长提速 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the continuous increase in AI capital expenditure by major players like Alibaba, with an additional investment plan of 380 billion in AI over the next three years, leading to a projected 10-fold increase in IDC energy consumption by 2032 compared to 2022 [4][12] - The report highlights the launch of seven new large models by Alibaba, including the flagship model Qwen3-Max, which ranks among the top three globally in performance [6][18] - The report suggests a sustained positive outlook for domestic AI large models and applications, indicating that the domestic computing power industry chain may continue to benefit [13] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Insights - Alibaba plans to increase AI investments significantly, with new hardware and software products introduced at the Yunqi Conference [12] - The company aims for ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) and has outlined two major AI strategies: an open-source approach and the development of a super AI cloud [15][16] - The report recommends focusing on the AIDC computing power industry chain as a core investment direction, alongside AI applications and related sectors [22] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of August 2025, China has 4.646 million 5G base stations, with a net increase of 395,000 stations since the end of 2024 [32] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.154 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 19.46% [32] - The report notes a decline in 5G mobile phone shipments in June 2025, with 18.436 million units shipped, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7% [32] 3. Operator Performance - The report details the revenue growth of major telecom operators in cloud services, with China Mobile's cloud revenue reaching 56.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [47] - China Telecom's Tianyi Cloud revenue was 57.3 billion, up 3.8% year-on-year, while China Unicom's cloud revenue reached 37.6 billion, growing by 4.6% [47] - The ARPU values for the three major operators remained stable, with slight decreases noted for China Unicom [51][52][53]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the significant investment in AI infrastructure, which is expected to accelerate cloud business growth and maintain a "buy" rating for the company [1][2] - The company plans to increase its investment in AI infrastructure, with a projected net profit forecast for FY2026-2028 of 140.5 billion, 162.9 billion, and 189.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -11.2%, +16.0%, and +16.5% respectively [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities, with a shift from CPU-centric to GPU-centric computing, indicating a transformation in the computing paradigm driven by large models [1] Group 2 - The demand for AI infrastructure is exceeding expectations, with the company actively advancing the construction of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure [1] - The company is leveraging its advantages in high-end users, merchants, and fulfillment systems to enhance its instant retail and in-store business [2] - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in the monetization rate of its Taotian platform, driven by increased investment in flash sales [2]

9月末的杭州小雨迷蒙，但云栖小镇内的AI热潮，让人感觉暑气并没有消退分毫。 9月24日，2025年的云栖大会如期举办。发布会上，阿里巴巴阿里巴巴集团CEO、阿里云智能集团董事 长兼CEO吴泳铭发表了题为《超级人工智能之路》的演讲。 2024年的云栖大会，是吴泳铭在执掌阿里云一年多以后的首次露面。当时，他表示"生成式AI最大的想 象力，"绝不是在手机屏幕上做一两个新的超级app，而是接管数字世界，改变物理世界。" 如果说一年前的这句话更多还是愿景；那么一年过后，这种愿景已经化为更具象的路线，以及激进行 动。 这次的云栖大会，阿里云端出的新品可以说是目不暇接。比如，新发布旗舰模型Qwen3-Max，这是阿 里通义大模型家族目前性能最顶尖的模型，性能超过GPT5、Claude Opus 4等，在LMArena上位居全球 前三。 除了旗舰模型，阿里另外还发布了六个新模型，包括：下一代基础模型架构Qwen3-Next及系列模型、 千问编程模型Qwen3-Coder、视觉理解模型Qwen3-VL、全模态模型Qwen3-Omni、视觉基础模型 Wan2.5-preview、语音大模型通义百聆。 更值得关注的，是吴泳铭颇为激 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future of AI is seen as a journey towards Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), with significant investments in AI infrastructure and a focus on creating a new operating system for AI applications [4][11][27] Group 1: Leadership and Vision - Wu Yongming, the CEO of Alibaba, has maintained a low public profile while driving the company's AI strategy, emphasizing the importance of AI in future business models [2][5] - His vision includes a clear path towards ASI, with AI evolving through three stages: learning from humans, assisting humans, and ultimately self-iterating beyond human intelligence [7][9] Group 2: AI Infrastructure and Investment - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan over three years to build AI infrastructure, aiming for a tenfold increase in energy consumption by 2032 compared to 2022 [4][17] - The company is focusing on creating a "super AI cloud" that will serve as the next generation of computing resources, essential for supporting numerous AI agents [11][19] Group 3: Strategic Decisions and Market Position - The decision to prioritize public cloud services was made to align with the growing demand for scalable AI solutions, despite previous revenue challenges in this area [15][18] - Alibaba's AI model, Tongyi, has become a leading open-source model, with over 300 models released and significant adoption across various industries, including finance and consumer electronics [17][22] Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Impact - The company is positioning itself as a full-stack player in the AI space, integrating AI chips, cloud computing, and foundational models to enhance its competitive edge [19][22] - The overarching goal is to prepare for the ASI era, where AI will significantly augment human capabilities and transform industries [23][24]

Core Insights - Alibaba released seven model updates at the 2025 Yunqi Conference, with over 300 models in the Tongyi series [2] - CEO Wu Yongming outlined a three-phase evolution towards Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), emphasizing that achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a certainty but merely a starting point for AI development [3][4][5] Model Updates - Qwen3-MAX: A trillion-parameter model excelling in programming and tool usage, achieving top international rankings [2][12] - Qwen3-Omni: A multimodal model supporting 19 languages for input and 10 for output, capable of processing 30-minute audio recordings [2][18] - Wan2.5-Preview: A video generation model that can create 10-second videos with enhanced quality [2][26] - Tongyi Bailin: An enterprise-level voice model with a significant reduction in hallucination rates [2][28] - Qwen3-VL: A visual understanding model with enhanced capabilities for video and OCR [2][21] - Qwen-Image: An upgraded image editing model with improved consistency in multi-image editing [2][22] - Qwen3-Coder: An intelligent programming model that supports multimodal input and has become popular on the OpenRouter platform [2][24] AI Development Vision - Wu emphasized that the first phase involves AI learning from human knowledge, the second phase focuses on AI assisting humans through tool usage, and the third phase aims for self-learning and surpassing human intelligence [5][6][8] - The ultimate goal is for AI to connect with the physical world and continuously learn from real-time data [6][8] Infrastructure and Strategic Goals - Alibaba is investing 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over three years, with plans to increase data center energy consumption tenfold by 2032 [11] - The company aims to establish a "super AI cloud" as the next-generation computing platform, requiring extensive resources and technology [10][11] - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen aims to be the "Android of the AI era," with over 300 models already open-sourced and a global download count exceeding 600 million [10][11] Agent Development Framework - The company introduced the Baolian Agent platform, which supports low-code development and aims to enhance the capabilities of intelligent agents [31][36] - The platform allows for dynamic memory updates and multi-modal memory capabilities, facilitating personalized agent experiences [32][35] AI Infrastructure Enhancements - Alibaba launched the Panjiu AI Infra 2.0 server, capable of high power and efficiency, and introduced the HPN 8.0 high-performance network for improved data center connectivity [38][39] - The company also unveiled a multi-modal intelligent data foundation for agent development, enhancing data processing capabilities [39] Conclusion - The Yunqi Conference showcased Alibaba's ambitions in AI, presenting a comprehensive ecosystem from model development to infrastructure, positioning itself for leadership in the next generation of AI operating systems and computing platforms [40]

Core Insights - The 2025 Yunqi Conference highlighted the certainty of achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and the ultimate goal of developing Super Artificial Intelligence (ASI) [1] - Alibaba Cloud's data center energy consumption is projected to increase tenfold by 2032, indicating a significant rise in computational investment [1] Group 1: AI Development Stages - The evolution towards Super AI is outlined in three stages: Emergent Intelligence, Autonomous Action, and Self-Iteration [5] - The current stage is characterized by AI assisting humans through tool usage and programming capabilities [5] - The final stage aims for AI to connect with the physical world and achieve self-learning capabilities [5] Group 2: Strategic Pathways - Alibaba Cloud aims to be a "full-stack AI service provider" with two core strategies: open-source development and the creation of a Super AI Cloud [5] - The open-source model is intended to foster a developer ecosystem and explore limitless AI applications [6] Group 3: Future of AI and Computing - Large models are predicted to become the next generation operating system, allowing users to create applications using natural language [6] - The Super AI Cloud is described as the next generation of computing infrastructure, capable of supporting vast computational needs [10] - It is anticipated that only a few major super cloud computing platforms will exist globally, with AI becoming a critical commodity, surpassing energy in importance [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is maintained as "Buy" [6][12]. Core Views - Alibaba is actively advancing its AI infrastructure and plans to increase investments, which is expected to drive accelerated growth in its cloud business. The company is also increasing short-term investments in flash sales, with significant user traffic growth and contributions from e-commerce technology service fees. The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 are 140.5 billion, 162.9 billion, and 189.8 billion RMB, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of -11.2%, +16.0%, and +16.5% respectively. The diluted EPS is projected to be 7.6, 9.1, and 10.9 RMB, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 19.1, 16.1, and 13.4 times [6][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Alibaba is focusing on building AI infrastructure, with a planned investment of 380 billion RMB. The demand for AI infrastructure is exceeding expectations, and the company aims to enhance its global data center's energy consumption scale by ten times by 2032 [7]. Financial Performance - The financial summary indicates that for FY2024A, the operating revenue was 941.168 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. The non-GAAP net profit for FY2024A was 157.479 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. The gross margin is projected to improve from 37.7% in FY2024A to 42.0% in FY2028E [8]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued acceleration in cloud business growth due to increased investments in AI and cloud computing infrastructure. The short-term focus on flash sales is anticipated to drive growth in main site traffic, leveraging advantages from high-end users, merchants, and fulfillment systems [8].