Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current slow bull market in A-shares is expected to continue for two to five years, with an annual index increase of 10% to 20% being common [1][7] - The market has entered a new phase, transitioning from a structure bull to a comprehensive bull market, with various sectors expected to perform, not just technology stocks [2][8] - The recent political meetings have set a positive tone for macroeconomic policies, which will further support the capital market and economic growth [3][9] Group 2 - There is a significant shift of household savings towards the capital market, with over 165 trillion yuan in deposits and a notable increase in new stock accounts and fund sales [4][10] - The stock market is seen as a historical investment opportunity, especially as the real estate investment phase ends, emphasizing the need for investors to adopt rational investment strategies [5][11] - The technology innovation sectors, including humanoid robots and AI, remain key investment themes, while consumer stocks are also expected to recover in valuation [3][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the necessity of combining investments in physical assets and human resources to enhance economic development and improve people's well-being [1][3] - The central economic work conference highlighted the importance of effective investment in both the real economy and technological innovation, alongside human resource development [1][2] - Urban renewal projects, such as the renovation of old residential areas, reflect the principle of prioritizing people's needs while also promoting economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - Investment in physical infrastructure is crucial for establishing a strong economic foundation, while investment in human capital is essential for stimulating new economic cycles [3][4] - The potential for investment in China remains significant, with a focus on both physical and human investments to drive economic growth and address long-term challenges [4][5] - The integration of investments in physical and human resources is seen as vital for achieving high-quality development and responding to international competition [5][6] Group 3 - The government aims to enhance effective investment by increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage to stimulate private investment [8][9] - Measures to promote private investment are being implemented, reflecting its importance as an indicator of economic activity and stability [10][11] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to implement major engineering projects in alignment with the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on effective investment strategies [12][13]

（原标题：东莞证券研究所负责人曹君瑞：政策合力落地 中国经济加速孕育新动能） 证券时报记者 胡飞军 近日，在中央经济工作会议部署2026年经济工作、政策方向，以及美国美联储技术性扩表之际，全球两 大经济体的政策周期交汇与市场联动成为关注焦点。 围绕中美政策动向与宏观经济演绎逻辑，证券时报记者采访了东莞证券研究所负责人曹君瑞。他表示， 中国在"更加积极"与"适度宽松"的政策组合下，预计将通过财政加力与货币协同，构建"内需主导、结 构改革"的宏观环境；而美联储技术性扩表标志着其流动性管理正式进入以"防御风险、稳定利率"为核 心的新阶段。 曹君瑞认为，中美政策的交汇，将为2026年带来更为稳定的全球经济环境。中国政策坚持"稳中求进"总 基调，加快构建经济新发展格局，强化金融强国战略，推动市场体系与金融机制韧性建设，培育经济新 动能，将迎来"十五五"规划的良好开局。 强化内需 与结构性改革并举 中央经济工作会议已于12月10日至11日在北京顺利举行。 曹君瑞认为，此次会议意义重大，不仅为2026年宏观经济政策指明方向，更为"十五五"规划的开局奠定 坚实基础。会议直面当前经济形势与面临的困境，强调积极应对，在"稳中求进 ...

Group 1: Core Economic Policies - The central economic work conference held in December 2023 set the direction for macroeconomic policies in 2026, emphasizing a combination of "strengthening internal demand" and "structural reforms" [2][3] - The conference highlighted the need for "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with policies exceeding expectations in both intensity and depth, reflecting a pragmatic and proactive policy orientation [2] - Fiscal policies are expected to include a moderate increase in the central deficit ratio and reasonable expansion of long-term special bonds to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment effectiveness [2][3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The overall tone of monetary policy is "moderately loose," with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations [2][3] - The central bank is anticipated to implement reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain adequate liquidity, while also improving the transmission mechanism of policy rates to lower financing costs for the real economy [3][7] - Measures to stabilize the real estate and capital markets will be taken to maintain a "dynamic balance" in investment and financing [4] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut and plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term government bonds, marking a shift towards a defensive liquidity management phase [5][6] - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased by about 30% from its peak, but remains above levels seen in 2019, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity management [6][7] - The recent technical expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is seen as a defensive measure to prevent liquidity shocks, with a focus on short-term government bonds rather than a return to quantitative easing [7][8] Group 4: Strategic Economic Outlook - The intersection of U.S. and Chinese policies is expected to create a more stable global economic environment, with China's focus on internal balance and demand-driven growth [6][8] - The U.S. faces challenges with weak employment and high inflation, leading to increased policy uncertainty that may hinder long-term investment in the U.S. economy [8] - China's clear policy path, characterized by a commitment to "moderately loose" monetary policy and "more proactive" fiscal policy, is expected to support the new development pattern and enhance the resilience of its financial system [9]

强化"投资于人"、坚持内需主导、经济转型持续推进 本报记者 孟珂 2025年，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展。党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议召开，为推动高质量发展注入强大 动力。在此背景下，如何看待当前中国经济形势，2026年我国经济又将有哪些核心增长点？《证券日报》采访了八大首席经济 学家进行深入解读。 2025年经济韧性凸显 12月份以来，多家国际机构上调中国经济增速预期，如IMF（国际货币基金组织）预计2025年中国经济增速为5%，较10月 份预测上调0.2个百分点。世界银行预测为4.9%，较6月份预测上调0.4个百分点。 招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛表示，2026年，财政赤字率预计在4.0%至4.2%之间，赤字规模或较2025年温和增加，专 项债额度可能提升至4.5万亿元至4.7万亿元。超长期特别国债延续发行，规模有望在1.5万亿元至1.7万亿元，继续支持"两重"建 设、城市更新与战略性新兴产业布局。广义财政赤字率可能略抬升至9%左右。 中信建投首席经济学家黄文涛表示，2026年赤字率保持不低于4%，广义口径或抬升至8.8%左右，支出端进一步强化"投资 于人"的领域。 分析原因，温彬表示，考虑 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the necessity of combining investments in physical assets and human resources to enhance economic development and improve people's well-being [1][3] - The central economic work meeting highlighted the importance of effective investment in both the real economy and technological innovation, alongside human resource development, to stimulate domestic demand and internal growth [1][2] - Urban renewal projects, such as the renovation of old residential areas, reflect the principle of prioritizing both material and human investments, aiming to improve living standards and promote high-quality urban development [2][3] Group 2 - The potential for investment in China remains significant, with a focus on both physical and human capital to drive economic growth and address long-term challenges [4][5] - Investment in education, healthcare, and environmental sectors is crucial for enhancing public welfare and expanding domestic demand, thereby leveraging investment as a catalyst for economic activity [3][6] - The government plans to increase central budget investments and optimize local government bond usage to stimulate private investment and enhance overall economic stability [8][9] Group 3 - The integration of investments in physical infrastructure and human development is essential for achieving high-quality economic growth and addressing social equity [7][8] - The government aims to implement significant engineering projects and improve investment regulations to effectively mobilize private sector investment [12] - Continuous efforts to resolve challenges in private investment development are being made to ensure a robust economic environment [10][11]

2025年，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展。党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议召开，为推动高 质量发展注入强大动力。在此背景下，如何看待当前中国经济形势，2026年我国经济又将有哪些核心增 长点？《证券日报》采访了八大首席经济学家进行深入解读。 2025年经济韧性凸显 中信建投首席经济学家黄文涛表示，2026年赤字率保持不低于4%，广义口径或抬升至8.8%左右，支出 端进一步强化"投资于人"的领域。 分析原因，温彬表示，考虑到2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，对于稳定预期和提振信心至关重要，而 在复杂的内外部形势之下，我国发展面临的不确定因素增多，有必要发挥积极财政政策作用，加大逆周 期和跨周期调节力度，并注重提升政策效能，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 12月份以来，多家国际机构上调中国经济增速预期，如IMF（国际货币基金组织）预计2025年中国经济 增速为5%，较10月份预测上调0.2个百分点。世界银行预测为4.9%，较6月份预测上调0.4个百分点。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬告诉《证券日报》记者，今年以来，尽管面临多重冲击，中国经济仍展现出 充足韧性。更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策支 ...

中国资本市场作为科技创新"助推器"，将持续发挥枢纽作用，让"创新始于技术，成于资本"的故事与科 技自立自强相得益彰，共同成长。 "十五五"规划建议将"科技自立自强水平大幅提高"列为经济社会发展的主要目标之一，并明确提 出"提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性，健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能"。"十五五"时期是 中国式现代化夯实基础、全面发力的战略攻坚期，以科技自立自强引领新质生产力发展是破解内外 挑战的关键，也是构筑新发展格局的核心引擎，中国资本市场作为科技创新"助推器"，将持续发挥 枢纽作用，让"创新始于技术，成于资本"的故事与科技自立自强相得益彰，共同成长。 一、资本市场在支持科技自立自强中的重要作用 资本市场作为现代金融的核心组成部分，其资源配置的枢纽功能对科技自立自强至关重要，体现在 以下几个方面：一是发挥导流枢纽作用。资本市场基于公开透明的价格发现机制，可以有效识别科 技创新的价值与风险，驱动社会金融资源流向最具潜力的战略性新兴产业与硬科技前沿，并前瞻布 局未来产业，进而实现对创新全谱系的长周期支持。二是畅通循环枢纽功能。资本市场通过股、 债、风投、并购等多元化工具，为企业提供覆盖全生命周期融资支持， ...

近日召开的中央经济工作会议明确，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效。会议 以"五个必须"深化对经济规律的认识，用"八个坚持"系统部署2026年重点任务。其中，"坚持创新驱 动，加紧培育壮大新动能"位于任务前列。 记者梳理近年中央经济工作会议的表述发现，"培育壮大新动能"的政策脉络日渐清晰： 2022年，提出"依靠创新培育壮大发展新动能"； 2023年，强调"培育发展新动能"； 2024年，要求"统筹好培育新动能和更新旧动能的关系"； 2025年，特别提到"加紧"二字——信号强烈，意味深长。 而在技术前沿，"人工智能+"成为新动能的重要引擎。 在坚持创新驱动方面，中央经济工作会议特别强调"深化拓展'人工智能+'，完善人工智能治理"。这一 部署，与人工智能发展的内在规律和现实需求高度契合。 "这一变化，尤为引人注目。"国家发展改革委国家信息中心政策仿真实验室主任、研究员肖宏伟表 示，"这标志着，人工智能已从一项具体行业技术，正式升格为驱动宏观经济增长的核心引擎。" 他表示，更深层的意义在于：国家在推动人工智能加速发展的同时，始终坚持"发展与规范并重"，彰显 战略定力与长远谋划。 "这一表述，充分说 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined the overall requirements and policy direction for economic work in the coming year, emphasizing the importance of promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The conference highlighted the need for flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools to support economic growth and price stability [3] - The expected adjustments in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates are projected to be around 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, in the coming year [3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to enhance the efficiency of monetary policy transmission by implementing structural monetary policy tools and addressing inefficiencies in financial resource allocation [2][4] Group 2: Financial Support for the Real Economy - The growth of social financing and broad money supply (M2) has consistently outpaced nominal economic growth, indicating a stable foundation for continued growth in the coming year [2] - Structural monetary policy tools will focus on expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises, aligning with the "five major articles" of financial support [4] - The PBOC is expected to further narrow the interest rate corridor and stabilize the yield curve of government bonds to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission [4]