4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 5月7日国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行宣布了三大类共10项举措的一揽子金融政策，包括降准、降 息，创设并优化结构性货币政策工具，推出支持科技创新的新政策工具等。业内专家认为，一揽子金融 政策出台实施非常及时，体现出适度宽松的货币政策正在积极作为，更好支持扩大国内需求，有效支持 经济合理运行。 加大中长期流动性供给 中共中央政治局会议提出，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力支持实体经济。 5月7日，中国人民银行宣布降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点。5月15日，降准落地，向市场提供了长期流 动性约1万亿元。 "降准0.5个百分点有效满足了长期流动性资金需求。"中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，此次降准 释放了更充足的长期流动性，在后续政府债券供给高峰，可熨平资金面波动，强化货币与财政政策协 同，稳定社会融资规模增长。 温彬表示，降准有助于优化银行负债结构、节约负债成本，在一定程度上缓解净息差收窄压力，为实体 经济融资成本下调创造空间。还能为银行体系提供长期低成本资金，稳定信用扩张，提升对消 ...

"虽然市场对本次发布会第一反应的超预期是央行'双降'，但我们认为随着关税冲击的显现，真正 能让经济和市场行稳致远的，仍在于货币金融政策和财政政策的协同。"招商基金预计，随着"一揽 子金融政策"在今年二季度的持续落地，三季度增量财政的空间也将随之打开。 上一次同样规格的新闻发布会发生在2024年9月24日，同样 是在上午盘前9点开始，同样是"一行一局一会"一把手出席， 同样是公布了一系列的金融支持政策，因此，市场自然会把这 两次新闻发布会进行对比。 作者： 邹永勤 封图：图虫创意 在5月7日国新办举行的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）行长潘功胜、金融监管总局 局长李云泽、中国证监会（下称"证监会"）主席吴清分别对"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"的 有关情况进行了介绍，并答记者问。 "这是4月25日政治局会议'加强超常规逆周期调节'精神的落地。"广发证券资深宏观分析师钟林楠 向经济观察报记者表示，与去年四季度类似，这次央行、金融监管总局与证监会部署一揽子政策只 是一个开端，后续财政、准财政、消费、供给侧等领域应该还有进一步的政策空间。 "双降"或仅是开始 在发布会上，潘功胜宣布了央行的一揽子货币政策措 ...

"双降"或仅是开始 在发布会上，潘功胜宣布了央行的一揽子货币政策措施，主要包括降准、降息和下调住房公积金贷款利 率等，其中，降准0.5个百分点，降息0.1个百分点。央行在目前时点推出"双降"措施，立即成为市场关 注的焦点。 在5月7日国新办举行的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李 云泽、中国证监会（下称"证监会"）主席吴清分别对"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"的有关情况进 行了介绍，并答记者问。 "这是4月25日政治局会议'加强超常规逆周期调节'精神的落地。"广发证券资深宏观分析师钟林楠向经 济观察报记者表示，与去年四季度类似，这次央行、金融监管总局与证监会部署一揽子政策只是一个开 端，后续财政、准财政、消费、供给侧等领域应该还有进一步的政策空间。 "简单理解，汇金公司资金与两项支持资本市场工具都具有一定的逆周期属性，保险与公募基金更加市 场化，具有更强的顺周期特征。"钟林楠表示，这样的政策组合拳，一方面可利用逆周期资金形成预期 锚，兜住风险下限；另一方面则可稳定、盘活顺周期资金，引入"活水"，整体有助于强化政策效果，提 升资本市场弹性。 博时基金首席权益策略分析师陈显 ...

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4%, exceeding market expectations despite a high base from the previous year[2] - The trade war initiated in April 2025 has increased economic uncertainty, leading to downward revisions in GDP growth forecasts by international institutions[3] Monetary Policy Response - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a comprehensive financial policy package, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity[4] - The PBOC also lowered the benchmark interest rate for 7-day reverse repos from 1.5% to 1.4%, potentially reducing the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points[10] Sector-Specific Measures - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies has been reduced from 5% to 0%, aimed at stimulating auto consumption and reducing manufacturing costs[10] - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans has been cut by 0.25 percentage points, with the first home rate now at 2.6%[10] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - In March 2025, retail sales grew by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating improved consumer sentiment[17] - The consumer spending propensity reached 63.1% in Q1 2025, the highest for the first quarter since 2020, reflecting a positive trend in consumer confidence[17] Trade War Impact - The trade war could potentially reduce China's GDP growth by approximately 2 percentage points if high tariffs lead to a complete halt in trade with the U.S.[18] - However, the actual impact is expected to be less severe, with the IMF estimating a drag of only 0.6% on GDP growth due to the ability to reroute exports to non-U.S. markets[18] Future Outlook - The PBOC is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with significant room for further easing if economic conditions worsen due to the trade war[12] - The combination of monetary and fiscal policies is anticipated to support domestic demand, countering external uncertainties[16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations and boosting market confidence, which includes measures such as interest rate cuts and adjustments to housing fund loan rates [1] - The People's Bank of China announced ten measures including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to support low-cost financing for enterprises [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to implement reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, along with new guidelines for major asset restructuring of listed companies [1] Group 2 - The capital market responded positively to the "combination punch," with all three major A-share indices closing higher, indicating a strong market reaction [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.4683 trillion yuan, an increase of 132.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day, reflecting increased investor activity [2] - The stability of the stock market is crucial for the overall economic landscape and the interests of millions of investors, with the government taking proactive measures to address external shocks and ensure stable market operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial policy package aims to stabilize the market and enhance expectations, reflecting a strong commitment to addressing risks and challenges while injecting momentum into economic recovery and capital market stability [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Measures - Over twenty new policy measures have been announced, with a focus on comprehensive strategies, including ten monetary policy measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, and structural tool optimizations [1][3]. - The financial regulatory bodies are collaborating more effectively, as evidenced by the coordinated release of policies from various departments, enhancing the overall policy effectiveness [2][3]. Group 2: Targeted Actions - The People's Bank of China has implemented targeted measures such as lowering reserve requirements and interest rates, while also introducing a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and pension re-loan" to support consumer spending and elderly care [4]. - Specific policies have been designed to support technology innovation, including the creation of risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds and the development of high-quality technology insurance [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain strong, with high-quality development continuing to progress, indicating a solid foundation for future growth [5]. - The financial policy package is expected to translate into sustained economic improvement and stable capital market operations, reflecting the government's determination and capability [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese financial authorities have introduced a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the macroeconomic environment and maintaining financial market stability amid global uncertainties and domestic economic recovery challenges [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced ten monetary policy measures, including a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut for large and medium-sized banks, providing over 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [3]. - The PBOC will lower the policy interest rate by 0.1%, reduce the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25%, and cut the structural monetary policy tool rate by 0.25% [3]. - A new "service consumption and elderly care re-loan" of 500 billion yuan will be established, along with increased re-loan quotas for agricultural support and technological innovation [3]. Group 2: Capital Market Support - The financial regulatory authorities will optimize two monetary policy tools, combining their quotas to a total of 800 billion yuan to enhance flexibility and meet diverse market participant needs [2]. - The insurance sector will see an expansion in long-term investment pilot programs, with an additional 60 billion yuan approved for market injection, and a 10% reduction in risk factors for stock investments to encourage greater market participation [2]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Stability - The PBOC has reduced the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25%, expected to save residents over 20 billion yuan annually in interest payments [2]. - Financial authorities are working on new financing systems that align with the evolving real estate development model, focusing on loans for real estate development, personal housing, and urban renewal [2]. Group 4: Support for Technological Innovation - The bond market will introduce a "technology board" to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds by financial institutions, technology companies, and equity investment firms [6][7]. - Specific measures will be implemented to optimize credit services, enhance insurance coverage, and expand equity investment to support technological innovation [7]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will introduce reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to facilitate the development of technology innovation bonds and improve the issuance process [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a comprehensive set of monetary policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and various structural tools to support consumption and innovation [1][2]. Summary by Category Total Quantity Tools - The RRR has been lowered by 0.5%, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, reducing the average reserve requirement ratio from 6.6% to 6.2% [2]. - The decision to lower the RRR is intended to counteract government bond supply pressures and optimize the funding structure, while also reducing the cost of liabilities for commercial banks [2]. Total Price Tools - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate has been cut by 10 basis points to 1.40%, which is expected to lead to a similar reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3]. - The reduction in the reverse repurchase rate is anticipated to alleviate the pressure on commercial banks' interest margins and improve their cost of liabilities [3]. Structural Tools - The PBOC has expanded the quota for re-loans for technological innovation and transformation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, enhancing support for hard technology sectors [5]. - A new 500 billion yuan re-loan for service consumption and elderly care has been established to boost financial support in these areas, aiming to stimulate consumer confidence and address shortages in elderly care facilities [6]. - The quota for re-loans supporting agriculture and small enterprises has been increased by 300 billion yuan, continuing the PBOC's long-term support for inclusive finance [6]. Capital Market Support Tools - The PBOC has merged two existing capital market support tools with a total quota of 800 billion yuan to enhance liquidity and stability in the capital market [7]. - The introduction of a risk-sharing mechanism for technology innovation bonds aims to bolster market confidence and facilitate the development of a technology-focused bond market [8].

上海金融与发展实验室主任 曾刚：房地产和股票是居民主要的财富配置方向，也是社会预期和市场信心的晴雨表，稳股市、稳 楼市有助于稳住居民财产，提振消费投资意愿，巩固金融市场健康运行的基础，从而实现稳增长、稳预期、稳信心的目标。 金融政策总量"放水养鱼"结构"精准滴灌" 央视网消息：央行、金管局、证监会三大金融监管部门推出的一揽子金融政策"组合拳"，在总量上"放水养鱼"，在结构上"精准 滴灌"，这些金融政策力度大精度准，彰显稳市场稳预期的决心，将大大提振中国经济和资本市场的信心。 一揽子金融政策措施包括降准、降息、下调个人住房公积金贷款利率，降准有利于提高商业银行支持实体经济的能力，商业银 行有更强的放贷能力支持居民购房、消费和企业投资。公积金利率下调降低居民房贷利息压力，既能提振居民购房积极性，又能通 过降低房贷负担提高消费能力。 北京师范大学教授 经济学专家 万喆：首先就是稳定市场信心和预期，通过降准降息、股市支持工具、楼市托底等等，政策的组 合拳直接缓解市场流动性紧张，提振投资者的风险偏好，为市场注入强心剂。 稳股市稳楼市 提振消费投资意愿 房地产和资本市场直接关系到中国的经济增长、就业和居民财富。为稳定股市 ...

2025 年 5 月 7 日 本次一揽子金融政策力度较大，超预期细节较多。下一步市场交易政策预期的 重心会切换到增量财政政策的落地。随着 5 月份陆续公布 4 月份主要经济指 标，或将给出更多推演线索。具体到不同市场，A 股更可能进入偏强震荡走 势，债券收益率曲线大概率先陡峭化再平坦化。 总量研究 "双降"落地，如何交易？ ——《央行观察》系列第十二篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 分析师：王佳雯 执业证书编号：S0930524010001 021-52523870 wangjiawen@ebscn.com 要点 事件：5 月 7 日上午 9 时，国新办举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融 监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳 市场稳预期"有关情况。 核心观点： 一、政策加力的"择时"考虑 4 月份以来，随着中美关税冲突加剧，市场较为期待出台较大力度的宏观政策 进行对冲。从 4 月底政治局会议通稿的措辞来看，"稳定"是当前政策的底线 诉求，更多以落实好已经出台的经济政策为主，一度打消了市场过于乐观的预 期。 然而， ...