2025 年 11 月 25 日 S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源 iFinD，东莞证券研究所 超配（维持） 关注产能去化 把握边际改善 投 农林牧渔行业 2026 上半年投资策略 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 农林牧渔行业 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾。SW农林牧渔行业跑赢沪深300指数。2025年1-11月 （2025年1月1日-2025年11月21日），SW农林牧渔行业整体上涨 16.36%，跑赢同期沪深300指数约3.18个百分点。分季度来看，SW 农林牧渔行业Q1下跌0.87%，Q2上涨6.49%，Q3上涨10.95%，10-11 月（截至11月21日）下跌0.65%。估值方面，2025年1-11月（2025 年1月1日-2025年11月21日），SW农林牧渔行业整体PB（整体法，最 新报告期，剔除负值）由年初的低点2.31倍最高回升至3.06倍。截 至11月21日 ...

生猪产能去化或加速，宠物内销增长亮眼 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.11.23 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -8% -2% 5% 11% 17% 23% 农林牧渔 沪深300 分析师 王聪 SAC 证书编号：S0160525110001 wangcong@ctsec.com 分析师 肖珮菁 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《宠物双十一国产品牌表现亮眼》 2025-11-16 2. 《生猪供应仍存压力，产能去化或加速》 2025-11-09 3. 《生猪养殖持续亏损，产能去化或加速》 2025-11-02 农业重点数据跟踪周报 核心观点 | 表 1：重点公司投资评级 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 公司 | 总市值（亿 | 收盘价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE | | 投资评级 | | | | 元） | （11.21） | 2024 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a strong rebound on November 19, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1.00%, the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.47%, and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.46% [1] - The agricultural sector was notably active, with the China Securities Agricultural Index increasing by 0.40% [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Agricultural ETF (512620) is set to be listed on November 21, tracking the China Securities Agricultural Index and covering sectors such as breeding and agricultural chemicals, with leading stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that over 80% of winter wheat has been sown nationwide, with significant progress in key provinces such as Henan (nearly 80%), Anhui (over 80%), and Shandong (nearly 90%) [2] - According to Guosheng Securities, the overall allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors is currently low, below the standard allocation ratio, indicating potential investment opportunities [2] Group 3 - Kaisheng Securities noted that the previous overselling of live pigs, combined with a seasonal increase in consumption, may lead to a temporary strengthening of pig prices [3] - The supply side is expected to contract due to the overselling of live pigs in October and a reduction in breeding stock earlier in the year, while demand may increase due to a cold wave warning issued by the Central Meteorological Observatory on November 15 [3]

Summary of the Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Agricultural Sector**, specifically the **Pig Farming** and **Poultry Farming** industries, along with **Feed and Animal Health** sub-sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Pig Farming Sector - In Q3 2025, the profitability of the pig farming sector declined significantly, with a **71% year-on-year** and **38% quarter-on-quarter** drop in profits, totaling **CNY 5.54 billion** for 18 listed pig farming companies [2][3][9]. - The average price of live pigs was **CNY 13.8/kg**, while the average cost for most listed companies was between **CNY 13-14/kg**, indicating a challenging margin environment [9][12]. - Major players like **Muyuan** and **Wens** reported combined profits of approximately **CNY 6 billion**, while the remaining 16 companies were in a loss position [9]. - The industry is expected to accelerate the reduction of sow capacity, which may elevate the price center for pigs in 2026 [2][12][13]. - The cash flow situation remains positive, with **CNY 18.1 billion** in operating cash flow for Q3, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of net inflow [10]. Poultry Farming Sector - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a tightening supply of parent stock, particularly for **white feathered chickens**, which is expected to support price increases in 2026 [5][14]. - The **yellow feathered chicken** sector is facing historical lows in parent stock, compounded by ongoing industry losses, setting the stage for potential price increases [5][14]. - The overall revenue for the poultry sector increased by **11% year-on-year**, but net profit fell by **45%** due to low chicken prices [14]. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Sectors - The feed and animal health sectors are showing signs of recovery, with demand improving as livestock numbers stabilize [6][7][17]. - Leading feed companies are expanding overseas, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [6][18]. - The animal health sector reported a **19% year-on-year** revenue increase, with profits rising **76%** due to a low base from the previous year [19]. Additional Important Insights - The average cost of pig farming is projected to be between **CNY 13-14/kg** for 2025, with expectations for 2026 to rise to **CNY 14-16/kg** [12][13]. - The **Haida Group** plans to IPO its overseas assets, which may dilute short-term earnings but is expected to enhance long-term growth potential [18]. - Investment recommendations focus on low-cost leading companies in pig farming like **Muyuan** and **Wens**, as well as smaller quality firms such as **Shennong** and **Dekang** [8][20]. Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on companies with strong cost control and cash flow improvement in the pig farming sector [8][20]. - In the poultry sector, recommendations include **Shennong** for white feathered chickens and **Lihua** for yellow feathered chickens [8][20]. - For feed and animal health, focus on leading companies like **Haida Group** and **Kefei**, as well as those with product advantages in the animal health sector [8][20].

Core Viewpoint - In October, the pig farming industry experienced a significant increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, leading to a sharp decline in pork prices due to oversupply and weakened demand [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In October, 14 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 17.2 million pigs, representing a month-on-month increase of 23.20% and a year-on-year increase of 25.85% [1][2]. - Major companies such as Muyuan Foods, WH Group, and New Hope reported slaughter increases of 26.97%, 17.07%, and 20.87% respectively [1][2]. - The total number of market pigs slaughtered by these companies was approximately 15.4 million, with a month-on-month increase of 23.96% and a year-on-year increase of 24.58% [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The increase in slaughter volume has led to a significant drop in pork prices, with most listed companies reporting a price decline of over 10% month-on-month and over 30% year-on-year [2]. - The average weight of slaughtered pigs increased to 126.27 kg, up by 1.09 kg month-on-month, indicating a trend towards heavier pigs being brought to market [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current weak prices for both fattened pigs and piglets, alongside policy-driven factors, suggest that the pig farming industry may initiate a capacity reduction phase [4]. - The price of fattened pigs has fallen below 12 yuan per kg, while weaned piglet prices are around 200 yuan per head, indicating a phase of overall industry losses [4]. - Historical trends suggest that when both fattened and piglet prices are low, the industry is likely to undergo market-driven capacity reduction, which could support long-term price increases [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market dynamics that promote capacity reduction, enhancing long-term performance for companies like Muyuan Foods, WH Group, and others [5]. - The recovery in pig inventory is anticipated to boost demand for feed and veterinary products, benefiting companies in the downstream supply chain [5]. - The agricultural sector is showing positive trends with rising grain prices, presenting investment opportunities in large-scale agricultural companies [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in pig production in October, leading to ongoing supply pressure and price declines in the market [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term performance improvement in the pig farming sector due to recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction [3][48]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the total pig output from 14 listed companies reached 17.2 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 23.20% and a year-on-year increase of 25.85% [11]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased to 126.27 kg, reflecting a slight month-on-month rise [15][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, with specific stocks such as Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuffs (温氏股份), and others identified as potential investments [3][48]. - It also suggests opportunities in the feed and animal health sectors, driven by rising demand as pig inventories recover [3][48]. Market Trends - The report notes a downward trend in pig prices, with the average price dropping significantly due to increased supply and reduced consumer demand post-holiday season [13][17]. - The report indicates that the current price of pigs is around 11.73 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.51% [17]. Agricultural Products - The report discusses the broader agricultural landscape, noting that grain prices are on an upward trend, which presents investment opportunities in the planting and seed sectors [3][48]. - It highlights the ongoing replenishment cycle in the rubber market, with prices currently at 15,215 yuan/ton, down 1.47% week-on-week [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [48]. Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.87% from October 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 5.04 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (9.03%), fishery (8.12%), animal health (5.57%), planting (4.57%), breeding (2.94%), and feed (2.45%) [12]. - Over 90% of individual stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, indicating strong overall market performance [13]. - The industry valuation has rebounded, with the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio at approximately 2.94 times as of November 13, 2025, which is still relatively low compared to historical levels [17]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.74 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal showed fluctuations, with corn priced at 2260.39 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3072 CNY/ton as of November 13, 2025 [21][23]. - **Profitability**: As of November 14, 2025, self-breeding pig farming reported a loss of 114.81 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 205.64 CNY per head, indicating a decline in profitability [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.49 CNY per chick, slightly down from the previous week, while the average price of white feather broilers increased to 7.12 CNY/kg, with a loss of 0.95 CNY per bird [28][31]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized accelerating the self-reliance and controllability of seed technology during a recent meeting, highlighting the importance of domestic seed sources and innovation in the seed industry [35]. Company Important News - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, which are positioned to benefit from industry trends and potential recovery in profitability [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [48]. Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.87% from October 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 5.04 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (9.03%), fishery (8.12%), animal health (5.57%), planting (4.57%), breeding (2.94%), and feed industry (2.45%) [12]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.94 times, indicating a recovery in valuation, yet it remains at a relatively low historical level, around the 65.9 percentile since 2006 [17]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs decreased from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.74 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal showed fluctuations, with corn priced at 2260.39 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3072 CNY/ton as of November 13, 2025 [21][23]. - **Profitability**: As of November 14, 2025, self-breeding pig farming reported a loss of 114.81 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 205.64 CNY per head, indicating a decline in profitability compared to the previous week [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.49 CNY per chick, slightly down from the previous week, while the average price of white feather broilers increased to 7.12 CNY/kg, with a loss of 0.95 CNY per bird, showing a slight improvement in profitability [28][31]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized accelerating the self-reliance of seed technology and ensuring the autonomy of seed sources during a recent meeting, highlighting the importance of domestic seed industry leaders [35]. Company Important News - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry trends and developments [48][49].

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, despite ongoing supply pressures and potential acceleration in capacity reduction [1][5][6]. Group 1: Pig Farming - Supply pressures continue to be significant, with a reported decrease in the number of breeding sows by 0.77% month-on-month in October [5][17]. - The average price of market pigs has declined to 12.16 CNY/kg as of November 6, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.49% [5][26]. - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses reported at -89.21 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and -175.54 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of November 7 [5][37]. Group 2: Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers remained stable at 7.09 CNY/kg as of November 7, with a reported loss of -1.25 CNY per bird [5][38]. - The number of breeding chickens has increased significantly, with a 143.18% month-on-month rise in the number of grandparent stock updated in October [5][38]. Group 3: Animal Health - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by a recovery in breeding cycles and an increase in inventory levels [5][47]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of vaccines, including progress in African swine fever vaccine trials, which may enhance the sector's growth potential [5][47]. Group 4: Seed Industry - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have shown slight declines, with wheat at 2487 CNY/ton, soybean meal at 3098 CNY/ton, and corn at 2239 CNY/ton as of November 7 [5][51]. - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the promotion of biotechnology in the seed industry [5][51]. Group 5: Pet Industry - Pet food exports amounted to 823 million CNY in September, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while domestic sales continue to grow, with a 3% increase across major e-commerce platforms [5][56][59]. - The report suggests that companies with a lower proportion of export business may be less affected by tariff disruptions, while those focusing on domestic growth are likely to enhance their market share [5][56][59].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Views - The swine sector continues to experience losses, with an increasing number of culled sows, indicating a need to focus on the expected recovery in this sector [2][13] - The dairy and beef sectors are undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a potential turning point for milk prices anticipated [3][15] - The pet sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and the rise of domestic brands, reshaping the competitive landscape [4][16] - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding stock shortages and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][18] - The seed industry is poised for a turnaround, with an emphasis on biotechnology and the commercialization of genetically modified crops [7][23] - The feed sector shows signs of recovery, with leading companies like Haida Group achieving revenue and profit growth [24][26] Summary by Sections Swine Sector - The industry continues to face losses, with the average price of live pigs at 12.02 CNY/kg, down 4.07% from the previous week [13] - The average market value per head for leading companies is at historical low levels, with Muyuan at 3000-3500 CNY/head and Wens at 2000-3000 CNY/head [14] - Recommended stocks include leading breeders like Muyuan and Wens, with additional focus on flexible stocks such as Shennong Group and Dekang Agriculture [14] Beef Sector - The price of beef cattle is showing signs of stabilization, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.62 CNY/kg [15] - The dairy cow population has decreased by 8%, indicating a significant capacity reduction [15] - Companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [15] Pet Sector - The Double Eleven shopping festival highlighted the resilience and structural upgrades in the pet food market, with domestic brands gaining market share [4][16] - Key recommendations include pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on companies with technological advantages and comprehensive product lines [17] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is under pressure due to breeding stock shortages, with a focus on the impact of avian influenza on imports [18][19] - Yellow chicken prices are expected to improve due to supply constraints and increasing consumer demand [20] - Recommended stocks include leading companies like Shennong Development and Yisheng Biological [19] Seed Sector - The seed industry is expected to benefit from increased focus on food security and the commercialization of genetically modified crops [7][23] - Key recommendations include leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [23] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with significant market share growth and revenue increases [24][26] - The overall feed market is expected to recover as smaller companies exit the market, leading to improved conditions for remaining players [24]