Economic Overview - Brunei's GDP in Q1 2025 decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, falling from 49.9 billion Brunei dollars to 49.0 billion Brunei dollars [1] - The oil and gas sector declined by 1.5%, while the non-oil and gas sector contracted by 2% [1] Sector Performance - The oil and gas industry's value dropped due to planned maintenance and unexpected equipment repairs, leading to a temporary decrease in natural gas and LNG production [1] - Oil production increased due to higher output from both new and existing oil wells [1] - The non-oil sector's contraction was primarily driven by significant declines in several industries: - Fisheries (-16%) - Other manufacturing (-14.6%) - Medical services (-11%) - Petrochemical manufacturing (-7.8%) - Financial services (-4.3%) - Business services (-4%) [1] Industrial Contribution - In Q1 2025, the industrial sector contributed 58.4% to GDP, the services sector contributed 40.5%, and agriculture, forestry, and fisheries contributed 1.1% [2] - The nominal GDP for the quarter was 48.5 billion Brunei dollars, showing a year-on-year decline [2] - The non-oil sector accounted for 54.2% of GDP, including downstream activities like petrochemical manufacturing, while the oil and gas sector represented 45.8% [2] Expenditure Analysis - The GDP growth rate by expenditure method declined due to a 13.2% contraction in gross capital formation, a 7% decrease in net exports of goods and services, and a 3% reduction in household final consumption expenditure [2] - In contrast, government final consumption increased by 0.8% [2]

央视网消息：从最新发布的数据中，感知中国经济活力。 2025年前5个月：我国服务贸易同比增长7.7% 1—5月，旅行服务继续快速增长，进出口达9200.5亿元，增长12.2%，为服务贸易第一大领域。 科技创新与制造业高质量发展加快推进 其中，其他商业服务、电信计算机和信息服务进出口规模较大，有效助推经济增长和产业结构升级。 国家税务总局公布的最新数据显示，2025年1—5月，支持科技创新和制造业发展的主要政策减税降费及退税达6361亿元。 6月份中国大宗商品价格指数继续回升 商务部最新数据显示，前5个月，我国服务进出口总额32543.6亿元人民币，同比增长7.7%。其中，出口14033.7亿元，增长15.1%；进口18509.9 亿元，增长2.7%。 服务贸易稳步增长的同时，结构进一步优化。1—5月，知识密集型服务进出口12492.7亿元，增长5.0%。 增值税发票数据显示，1—5月，高技术产业销售收入同比增长14.2%，明显快于全国总体增速。 1—5月，我国制造业企业销售收入同比增长4.2%。其中，数字产品制造业、高技术制造业销售收入均保持两位数增长。 中国物流与采购联合会7月5日公布，6月份，中国大宗商品 ...

新华社雅加达7月4日电 专访｜中国是全球南方最可信赖的伙伴——访印尼国际关系学者韦珍玉 新华社记者陶方伟 "中国是全球南方国家最值得信赖的伙伴。"印度尼西亚国际关系学者韦珍玉日前在接受新华社记者专访 时说，"在全球格局深刻调整、南方国家集体崛起的时代背景下，中国始终坚持以团结、共赢、发展为 导向，积极推动与全球南方国家在各领域深化合作。" 韦珍玉说，中国近年来持续深化与亚洲、非洲和拉美国家的伙伴关系，通过大规模基础设施投资、优惠 融资、技术转让和能力建设项目，有效推动了发展中国家的减贫和自主发展。"中国的支持不附加政治 条件，这种基于信任和团结的合作模式，与传统援助模式形成鲜明对比。" 她指出，中国推动南南合作传递出一种发展理念，强调发展中国家可以自力更生、互助共赢。"正是这 种基于对等与尊重的合作方式，使中国赢得广大发展中国家的广泛信任。" 在韦珍玉看来，中国提出的共建"一带一路"倡议正是这种合作理念的生动体现。她表示，印尼和中国在 共建"一带一路"框架下开展的一系列合作具有高度战略性和实效性，为印尼经济发展注入强大动力。 "像雅万高铁这样的项目，不仅将雅加达和万隆的通勤时间从3个多小时缩短至46分钟，显著 ...

报 告 正 文 新增非农上升，但由政府支撑。 6 月新增非农就业人数略升至 14.7 万人。分行业来看，本月政府贡献了一半的新增就业，而私营部门新增就业从 5 月的 13.7 万人大幅放缓至 7.4 万人。政府方面，新增就业源于州和地方的教育岗位，而联邦政府继续裁员。私营部门方面，本月服务业新增就业仅录得 6.8 万 人，较上月大幅减少 7.3 万人，与 6 月新增 ADP 就业转负相互映证。 私营部门就业走弱。 具体行业来看， 6 月新增就业约一半来自政府部门，并且主要为州和地方的教育岗位，联邦政府继续裁员。服务业就业大幅降温， 其中教育保健、休闲酒店和金融活动新增就业下降最多，较上月分别下降 3.2 万人、 9000 人和 7000 人。此外，制造业就业仍受关税政策压制，继续下 降 7000 人。 失业率下降，但更多人退出劳动力市场 。 6 月失业率小幅下降 0.1 个百分点至 4.1% ，不过， 6 月劳动参与率录得 62.3% ，较上月下降 0.1 个百 分点，永久退出劳动力市场的人数增加。从结构来看，本月失业人数虽减少 22.2 万人，但就业人数仅增加 9.3 万人，劳动力市场趋弱。此外， 25- ...

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K for June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised +144K for May [1][2] - The Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, totaling an additional +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The Government sector contributed +73K jobs, while the Federal Government saw a loss of -7K jobs [4] - The Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, and Social Assistance added +19K jobs, while traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Interest Rate Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market narrative [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, an improvement from the March record low of -$138 billion, with April's deficit revised to -$60.3 billion [9] Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate a rebound in Factory Orders for May and mixed results for Services PMI, with both metrics expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [10][11]

昨夜，一则数据震动华尔街——美国六月ADP就业人数骤减三点三万人，与市场预期的增加十万个岗位形成巨大落差。这是自二零二三年三月以来该数据首 次跌入负值，远超统计学意义上的正常波动范围（五个西格玛偏差），这一数据揭开了就业市场繁荣表象下的隐忧。 ADP首席经济学家内拉·理查森点明症结："裁员虽未大规模出现，但美国企业正以'冻结招聘'和'不填补离职空缺'的沉默策略收缩人力，导致就业被动萎 缩。" 这一趋势已酝酿数月——过去三个月ADP就业月均增长仅一点八七万人，创疫情初期以来最低水平。同步佐证的是，六月认为"工作充足"的消费者比 例跌至四年低谷。 更深层危机来自美国劳动力供给的"断流"。移民政策收紧导致外籍劳工数量连续两月下滑，相当于劳动力增长减少两百万人，其冲击甚 至超过关税影响。布鲁金斯学会最新研究警示，今年美国净移民可能归零甚至转负。这意味着未来每月仅需新增一万至四万个岗位即可维持当前失业率，但 代价将是经济增长潜力的永久性损伤。 市场的神经已绷至极点。ADP数据公布后，交易员将七月美联储降息概率从百分之二十推高至二十七点四，押注年底前至少两次降息的筹码激增。所有人的 目光聚焦于今晚发布的非农报告。尽管经济 ...

今晚公布的非农报告将受到更多关注。 美国劳动力市场可能正在发出警告信号。 尽管招聘冻结，但工资增长保持稳定。留职者的工资同比增长4.4%，而换工作者的工资平均增长 6.8%，这表明潜在的劳动力市场仍然接近充分就业。 ADP首席经济学家理查森（Nela Richardson）表示："裁员仍然很少见，企业对雇佣的犹豫，以及不愿 更换离职员工导致了职位减少。"他补充道："尽管如此，招聘的放缓尚未扰乱薪酬增长。然而，在今年 开局强劲之后，招聘势头正在减弱。" 市场分析认为，企业就业人数的下降表明，即使在特朗普政府暂时放宽了关税谈判期限之后，疲软的劳 动力市场也没有任何改善。公司填补的空缺职位比一年前少，在经济加速之前不太可能招募更多的人。 由于经济不确定性阻碍了招聘，6月份美国私人部门就业人数两年多来首次下降，引发了人们对经济健 康的担忧，并加大了外界对美联储降息的押注。市场的注意力将转向今晚公布的政府非农就业报告，这 可能成为本月美联储是否提前降息的关键催化剂。 数据意外下滑 美国人力调查公司ADP Research周三发布的数据显示，6月美国私营公司裁员3.3万人，这是自2023年3 月以来的首次下降，远不及市场 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the discussion revolves around the daily review of the Hong Kong stock market, focusing on individual stocks and the Hang Seng Index, to help investors understand market changes and trading signals [2][3] - The company emphasizes the importance of data-driven communication, providing insights into trading signals and market trends to assist investors in making informed decisions [3][4][6] - The analysis highlights a tendency among investors to prefer short-term trading strategies rather than long-term holding, which is attributed to the perceived risks associated with longer holding periods [4][5][6] Group 2 - The company utilizes a database that is updated daily to provide timely analysis of stock performance, including significant market fluctuations [7][11] - Technical analysis signals are summarized into four categories: buy, strong buy, sell, and strong sell, simplifying the communication of trading signals to investors [10][12] - The analysis of support and resistance levels is crucial for investors, especially those trading in structured products like warrants and bull-bear certificates, as it helps in assessing risk and making strategic decisions [13][14][16] Group 3 - The discussion includes specific examples of stocks such as Tencent and Alibaba, providing insights into their current trading signals and potential price movements based on technical analysis [15][16] - The company encourages investors to consider risk management when selecting products, particularly in relation to support and resistance levels, to mitigate potential losses [13][14] - The session concludes with an invitation for further questions and discussions on structured products, indicating a commitment to ongoing investor education and engagement [17][19]

近期，美国私营部门的就业市场传出了两年多来的首次负增长信号，这一变化主要集中在服务业领域， 引发了市场关于劳动力市场放缓速度的担忧。 ADP研究院在周三发布的最新数据显示，经过修正，5月的私营部门就业人数仅增加了2.9万人，而6月 则出现了3.3万人的减少。这一负增长出乎所有接受调查的经济学家的预料。 ADP的首席经济学家Nela Richardson在声明中指出，尽管大规模的裁员仍然较为罕见，但雇主们在新增 招聘方面表现得越来越谨慎，不愿填补离职员工的空缺，这导致了6月的就业人数下降。 值得注意的是，ADP的就业报告在历史上对后续官方非农就业数据的预测准确性并不稳定，市场往往更 加关注美国劳工部的官方报告。例如，5月的ADP数据与随后发布的官方就业数据之间存在较大偏差。 即将在周四公布的官方非农就业报告预计，6月的就业增速可能会降至四个月来的最低水平，失业率可 能会略有上升，达到4.3%。 随着ADP数据的公布，美国国债收益率随即下跌，股指期货也呈现走低趋势，美元的涨幅则有所收窄。 交易员们加大了对美联储在2025年底前至少降息两次的押注，降息三次的概率在ADP数据发布后也有所 上升。根据利率期货市场的交易 ...

Group 1 - The ADP private-sector payrolls for June reported a decline of -33K, marking the first negative reading since March 2023, significantly below the expected +100K and the previously revised +29K [1][3] - The decline in jobs was primarily driven by the services sector, which lost -66K jobs, including significant losses in Professional/Business Services (-56K) and Education/Healthcare (-52K) [2][3] - Large companies (more than 500 employees) saw a slight gain of +30K jobs, while small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) experienced a loss of -47K jobs [3] Group 2 - The current estimate for nonfarm payrolls in the upcoming Employment Situation report is +110K, but this may be revised downward following the negative ADP report [3] - The last negative ADP report in March 2023 occurred under different economic conditions, with the Federal Reserve having raised interest rates to over +5% and inflation being addressed [4] - The current job losses are predominantly in white-collar positions, which may be unexpected, and are not directly linked to the White House's deportation campaign [5] Group 3 - The upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariff initiatives could impact future private-sector payrolls, with potential for recovery depending on new trade deals or tariff pauses [6] - The trailing four-month average for private-sector job growth is only +51K, insufficient to cover new retirees, contrasting sharply with the previous eight-month average of +162K [7]