消费者服务行业 标配（维持） 消费者服务行业双周报（2025/8/8-2025/8/21） 中央财政对个人消费贷款进行贴息，基本面趋稳 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 周 报 消费者服务（中信）指数走势 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 2025 年 8 月 22 日 分析师：邓升亮 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523050001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn 行 业 研 究 告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年8月8日-2025年8月21日，中信消费者服务行业指数整 体回升3.76%，跑输同期沪深300指数约0.45个百分点。指数上涨主要受 暑期旺季出游数据和市场风险偏好回温带动。细分板块均上涨，酒店板 块领涨，华住二季度业绩报告显示酒店近期经营指标企稳，或带动估值 回升。行业取得正收益的上市公司有43家，涨幅前五分别是中国高科、 ST东时、西安饮食、科德教育、君亭酒店，取得负 ...

根据公示名单，拟认定为第三批北京市旅游休闲街区名单包括东城区五道营旅游休闲街区、西城区北京 坊旅游休闲街区、西城区杨梅竹斜街历史文化街区、朝阳区798旅游休闲街区、石景山区首钢园旅游休 闲街区、门头沟区檀谷旅游休闲街区。 北京商报讯（记者 吴其芸）8月19日，北京市文化和旅游局官网发布消息显示，近日，北京市文化和旅 游局开展了北京市旅游休闲街区评选工作。经各区申报、专家评审，市文化和旅游局审核，拟确定"东 城区五道营旅游休闲街区、西城区北京坊旅游休闲街区"等6家旅游休闲街区为第三批北京市旅游休闲街 区，现予公示。 ...

目前，街区已引入了130多家文创、餐饮、手作店铺，街区日均客流量已超过3万人次，年客流量已达1000万人次， 各类店铺摊位带动了周边5000余人创业就业。今年3月，第四批国家级旅游休闲街区名单公布，郑州记忆1952油化厂 旅游休闲街区成功入榜。 美丽乡村焕新：田园风光中的消费新场景 在安徽广德，一场关于乡村价值的重新发现正在上演。自2022年以来，广德市已发展了近300个规模休闲农业与乡村 旅游点。 央广网北京8月15日消息（记者 王勇生）当斑驳红砖厂房蜕变为文艺打卡地，当宁静乡村孕育出 "爬宠研学" 等新奇 体验，当一张足球票串联起全城消费脉络……这个夏天，多元消费场景正以前所未有的活力，唤醒消费市场的无限 潜能。 老厂房蝶变：工业记忆里的消费新地标 兴建于1952年的郑州油脂化学厂，曾是河南省最大的洗涤用品生产基地。近年来，在城市更新的浪潮中，这座承载 着70多年工业记忆的老厂房，已完成从"工业锈带"到"生活秀带"的华丽转身。 "街区以'修旧如旧 新必新潮'为改造理念，保留了红砖、烟囱、储皂罐等设施原貌，同时在老建筑的基础上融入新元 素。"郑州记忆1952油化厂旅游休闲街区总经理曹心荷介绍，街区通过工业展 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the current market rally may be perceived as a "water buffalo" driven by liquidity, potentially overlooking the crucial theme of profit recovery [3][15][26] - Historical data shows that since 2000, there have been four instances of a trend reversal in ROE for the entire A-share non-financial sector, occurring in 2006 Q2, 2009 Q3, 2016 Q3, and 2020 Q2 [3][15] - The report draws parallels between the current anti-involution policies and the supply-side reforms of 2016, noting that the focus has shifted from traditional industries like steel and coal to emerging manufacturing sectors such as photovoltaics [3][25] Group 2 - The conditions for interest rate cuts in the U.S. are maturing, with recent employment data indicating a weakening economy, although this does not equate to a full-blown recession [4][40] - The report highlights that the recent adjustments in the market reflect a retraction in trading scales rather than a change in the long-term trend of improving corporate profits in China [6][49] - Recommendations for investment include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods that benefit from both overseas manufacturing recovery and domestic anti-involution policies [6][49] Group 3 - Trade issues between China and the U.S. are identified as potential market disturbances, but their impact is expected to be less severe than in April due to lower tariff rates announced in July [5][46][47] - The report notes that the recent fluctuations in the market are more about the retraction of previous gains rather than a fundamental shift in the long-term outlook for supply clearing [3][26] - The report suggests that the focus of domestic policies will revolve around "people's livelihood," recommending attention to dividend-type consumption sectors such as food and beverages, as well as certain service industries [6][49]

Group 1 - The current market is transitioning from a stock market to an incremental market, with A-shares experiencing high volatility in certain sectors while manufacturing sectors remain undervalued [1] - The "anti-involution" narrative is compared to the "Belt and Road" initiative, suggesting that it will help stimulate low-performing sectors in the context of increased capital inflow [1] - The valuation gap in Hong Kong stocks is becoming apparent, with insurance funds likely to expand their investment scope, indicating a favorable time to increase allocations to Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to anchor the basic expectations of the midstream manufacturing sector, with short-term investment opportunities becoming more apparent [2] - The passing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. is expected to enhance fiscal stimulus, reducing the risk of a deep recession and improving visibility for China's supply-demand dynamics by 2026 [2] - The market has already begun to reflect a "bull market atmosphere," with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key levels, enhancing risk appetite and spreading profit-making effects [2] Group 3 - A-share market performance has been strong, driven by the upward trend in U.S. stocks and the positive impact of technology leaders reaching new highs [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate domestic price pressures, with the upcoming earnings season providing a favorable environment for stocks with positive earnings forecasts [3] - The overall earnings improvement rate for A-shares is higher than the same period last year, indicating structural opportunities in high-growth TMT sectors and competitive midstream manufacturing [3] Group 4 - The "transformation bull market" is gaining momentum, driven by a systematic reduction in market discount rates and a favorable shift in economic structure [4] - The willingness of investors to accept risk is increasing, suggesting that the market may consolidate before making new highs [4] - Short-term focus should be on the "anti-involution" theme, with a rotation towards growth sectors continuing [4] Group 5 - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: AI technology breakthroughs, consumer stock valuation recovery, and the rise of undervalued assets [5] - The recovery cycle in consumer stocks is supported by low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts, indicating potential opportunities in the sector [5] Group 6 - The capital return in A-shares is expected to stabilize and recover due to the "anti-involution" policy and the cessation of debt contraction [6] - The combination of domestic manufacturing recovery and overseas capital return will enhance the attractiveness of A-shares compared to other markets [6] - Recommended investment strategies include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods that benefit from both domestic and international trends [6] Group 7 - The current market conditions resemble those of 2014, with a significant disconnect between market performance and earnings [7] - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a positive signal, although its impact may be weaker than previous real estate policy shifts [7] - The market is expected to experience a similar trend to the second half of 2014, but tactical breakthroughs may not be smooth [7] Group 8 - The A-share index has recently surpassed 3500 points, with financial sectors and technology themes driving market momentum [8] - The market's valuation has recovered from the bottom, indicating that further gains will require increased trading volume [8] - Structural opportunities are abundant, with a focus on stable dividend assets, resource products, and new technology sectors [8] Group 9 - The core drivers of the current market breakthrough include rising policy expectations, the "anti-involution" investment theme, and improved trading activity [9] - July is viewed as a favorable window for investment, with a focus on TMT, non-bank financials, and military sectors [9] - The AI computing sector's performance is closely tied to the strong results of benchmark U.S. stocks, influencing A-share valuations [9] Group 10 - The market is in a new bullish phase, with investor sentiment improving and incremental capital entering the market [10] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate income stagnation, potentially leading to a new phase of market growth [10] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors related to the "anti-involution" theme, stable currencies, and sectors with positive earnings forecasts [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current strong resonance between Chinese and American stock markets reflects optimistic expectations for future corporate capital returns, with A-shares stabilizing from historical lows and U.S. stocks maintaining high ROE levels [1][2] - The three main catalysts for stabilizing and recovering capital returns in A-shares are: (1) anti-involution leading to stabilization in industries previously constrained by excessive capital expansion, (2) overseas manufacturing demand exceeding service sector demand, and (3) the end of debt contraction cycles [2][3] - The current market pricing indicates that short-term stock prices are ahead of ROE, which aligns with historical bottoming characteristics, and while the absolute level of PB is not extreme, the low absolute level of ROE affects the elasticity and pace of PB recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The future state of capital returns is expected to shift, with domestic capital returns stabilizing and overseas capital returns potentially declining due to the combination of anti-involution, cessation of debt contraction, and the development of overseas manufacturing [4][5] - The relative advantage of the "barbell strategy" may diminish as ROE gradually recovers, with traditional industries such as coal, oil, steel, and utilities showing a higher proportion of low PB stocks compared to TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][4] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods benefiting from increased overseas demand and domestic anti-involution policies, as well as exploring opportunities in new consumption sectors like hospitality and retail [5]

Group 1 - The focus of the brokerage strategy discussions this week is on the upcoming trade agreement progress and the sustainability of the "anti-involution" sector [1][2] - The Huaxi strategy team indicates that the core pricing in the global market is centered around the trade agreement progress on July 9, with potential tariff extensions being a negotiation tactic [1][3] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with two main lines of focus: positive mid-term performance expectations in sectors like wind power, thermal power, and robotics, and the potential for domestic chains to catch up following Nvidia's overseas breakthroughs [1][3] Group 2 - The Dongfang strategy team notes that the market previously viewed the July 9 tariff as a negligible short-term risk, but it may escalate into a core issue next week, leading to a volatile market [1][3] - The Zhongyin strategy team emphasizes that the current liquidity environment supports the market, and as the third quarter progresses, domestic demand expectations may improve if tariff policies do not experience unexpected fluctuations [1][3] - The Xuch team's analysis suggests that "expectation management" is a key tool in the "anti-involution" policy, with limited space for further capacity clearance in traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel due to already high industry concentration [2][4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with the potential for increased volatility in the coming weeks due to the expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" [5] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is that the liquidity environment remains a primary support factor, with expectations for recovery in domestic demand as price pressures ease and policies are implemented [5] - The current cycle of capacity reduction is crucial, but its short-term impact on profitability may be limited if demand does not show signs of recovery [4][5]

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent visit by the Macau government delegation to six Greater Bay Area cities is to enhance cooperation in strategic emerging industries, particularly in traditional Chinese medicine and technology [1][4][10] - Macau's GDP for the first quarter of 2025 is reported at 997.6 million MOP, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, indicating a reliance on tourism and gaming sectors [2][3] - The Macau government plans to strengthen ties with European countries and Southeast Asia to diversify its economy and expand tourism markets [3][4] Group 2 - The decline in Macau's GDP is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and changes in tourist spending patterns, with non-gaming tourist spending down by 3.6% [3][4] - The Macau government aims to promote economic diversification by developing high-value industries and enhancing cooperation with cities like Zhongshan, Jiangmen, and Zhuhai [15][16] - The second phase of the Hengqin Guangdong-Macau Deep Cooperation Zone is underway, focusing on cross-border e-commerce and logistics, with plans for a technology innovation industrial park [11][14] Group 3 - Macau's economic structure is criticized for being overly dependent on tourism and gaming, with calls for more diverse economic activities such as cultural creativity and financial services [15][20] - The government is exploring new industrial models that involve collaboration between Macau's research capabilities and production in neighboring cities [16][19] - The recent consumer promotion activities in Macau have seen significant participation, with electronic coupons totaling 2.9 billion MOP issued [22]

Group 1: Cultural and Tourism Integration - The integration of culture and tourism is being promoted to enhance the vitality of culture and the attractiveness of tourism, providing strong momentum for the development of the cultural tourism industry [1] - Xi Jinping emphasized the need to promote cultural prosperity and further strengthen the protection of historical and cultural heritage while advancing high-quality development in the cultural tourism industry during his visit to Henan [1] Group 2: Cultural Heritage and Archaeology - A large live-streaming event titled "Searching for National Treasures along the Central Plains Great Site Corridor" was launched, showcasing various historical sites in Henan and highlighting the province's rich cultural heritage [2] - Henan has been actively promoting major archaeological projects, with 55 archaeological discoveries recognized as "Top Ten New Archaeological Discoveries in the Country," ranking first nationwide [2] Group 3: Cultural Events and Performances - The Henan Provincial Acrobatic Troupe presented a large-scale red acrobatic drama "Attack Order," showcasing traditional acrobatic skills and revolutionary historical stories [5] - Numerous cultural works, including operas and dramas, have received national awards, indicating a positive trend in the quality and influence of Henan's cultural creations [5] Group 4: Public Engagement in Cultural Activities - Approximately 95 million people participated in the "New Era, New Journey, New Style" cultural activities in Henan, reflecting strong public engagement in cultural events [6] - Various activities during the "Cultural and Natural Heritage Day" aimed to revitalize intangible cultural heritage and integrate it into modern life [6] Group 5: Tourism Industry Development - The launch of the "One Machine Tour Henan" digital service platform aims to attract tourists by offering personalized travel experiences, reflecting the innovative approach to enhancing tourism consumption [7] - During the recent Dragon Boat Festival, Henan received 15.116 million tourists, generating 6.79 billion yuan in tourism revenue, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.7% and 5.3% respectively [7] Group 6: Immersive Cultural Experiences - Henan is focusing on creating immersive cultural experiences that make history and culture easily accessible to the public [8] - The province is enhancing cultural tourism performances, with new shows and interactive experiences being developed to engage visitors [9] Group 7: Urban Cultural Revitalization - Henan has transformed several urban areas into tourism and leisure districts, integrating historical elements with modern amenities to create vibrant cultural spaces [9] - The province has established 7 national-level and 56 provincial-level tourism leisure districts, promoting a diverse development model [9]

Core Insights - The Hangzhou Grand Canal will see the addition of a new cultural and tourism landmark, the Canal Bay International Tourism and Leisure Complex, which aims to enhance the quality of life for local residents [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The Canal Bay International Tourism and Leisure Complex is strategically located at the intersection of tributaries of the Grand Canal in northern Hangzhou, serving as a key commercial engine for the Northern Demonstration Zone [1] - The project consists of two main areas: the West Bank (Jinwan MIX District) and the East Bank (tentatively named), with a brand concept of "Canal Boat" symbolizing the harmonious coexistence of commerce and nature, history and modernity [1] Group 2: Jinwan MIX District - The Jinwan MIX District (plots 9 and 10) is part of the Canal Bay TOD area, featuring an open street layout with phases one and two interconnected, with phase one set to open in December 2024 and phase two expected to launch in the second half of 2025 [1] - The district will offer a variety of amenities, including waterfront markets, live music venues, retail, and trendy dining options, catering to residents' daily needs and enhancing their cultural and recreational experiences [1] Group 3: East Bank Development - The East Bank (tentatively named) is projected to be fully completed by the second half of 2026, designed as a waterfront commercial complex that emphasizes outdoor experiences and diverse business formats [2] - It aims to become a benchmark for light vacation destinations in waterfront cities, with a focus on outdoor, waterfront, relaxation, and music themes [2] - The East Bank will feature a mix of waterfront experiences, outdoor leisure, new urban dining, fashion retail, and sports activities, divided into four main areas: a phenomenon-level outdoor area, a light vacation dining area, a cultural performance area, and a fashion retail area [2] Group 4: Commercial Synergy - The leasing efforts for the East Bank have already commenced, and as various plots are completed and opened, the Canal Bay will support higher-level commercial and cultural tourism functions [3] - The development will create a dual-core linkage model of "West Bank community life + East Bank destination commerce," focusing on "quality living + trendy experiences" to further enhance commercial capabilities [3]