且从产能角度看，目前煤炭、钢铁等传统周期性行业的"落后产能"已基本出清完毕，加之上市公司并购重组/央国企整合也基本完 毕，行业集中度显著提升。在此背景下，通过行政手段进一步出清产能的空间已极为有限。 | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 结论 | | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | | | 短期来看,全球市场定价核心在于7月9日美 国与各国贸易协定进展,此前美国总统特朗 普表示不考虑延长关税豁免最后期限,但此 | | | | | 种表态也可能是一种谈判策略,美国对部分 | | | | | 国家关税也有延期可能。上半年我国经济增 | 关注两条主线:1)中报业绩预期有望 | | 华西策略 | 下半年央行降准降息仍有空间,A | 长动能强劲,全年经济增速目标达成的压力 | 向好方向,如:风电、火电、机器人 | | | | | 等:2) 前期海外英伟达产业链突破新 | | 李立峰 | 股稳中向上趋势不变。 | 减轻。然而对于下半年而言，无论关税最终 | | | | | 结果如何,出口对增长的拉动力都会比上半 | 高,可期待国产链补涨行情。 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent visit by the Macau government delegation to six Greater Bay Area cities is to enhance cooperation in strategic emerging industries, particularly in traditional Chinese medicine and technology [1][4][10] - Macau's GDP for the first quarter of 2025 is reported at 997.6 million MOP, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, indicating a reliance on tourism and gaming sectors [2][3] - The Macau government plans to strengthen ties with European countries and Southeast Asia to diversify its economy and expand tourism markets [3][4] Group 2 - The decline in Macau's GDP is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and changes in tourist spending patterns, with non-gaming tourist spending down by 3.6% [3][4] - The Macau government aims to promote economic diversification by developing high-value industries and enhancing cooperation with cities like Zhongshan, Jiangmen, and Zhuhai [15][16] - The second phase of the Hengqin Guangdong-Macau Deep Cooperation Zone is underway, focusing on cross-border e-commerce and logistics, with plans for a technology innovation industrial park [11][14] Group 3 - Macau's economic structure is criticized for being overly dependent on tourism and gaming, with calls for more diverse economic activities such as cultural creativity and financial services [15][20] - The government is exploring new industrial models that involve collaboration between Macau's research capabilities and production in neighboring cities [16][19] - The recent consumer promotion activities in Macau have seen significant participation, with electronic coupons totaling 2.9 billion MOP issued [22]

夜幕降临，朝阳市利州古城文化旅游风情街一天当中最热闹时候便开启了。漫步1600米长的"利州 河生态景观带"，不少身着汉服的游客提灯而过，欢声笑语不时从烟火市集中传来。 近日，作为省级夜间文化和旅游消费集聚区、省级夜经济示范街区以及省级示范步行街，利州古城 文化旅游风情街被省文化和旅游厅命名为省级旅游休闲街区，同一批还有4家，分别为沈阳市东中街大 悦城旅游休闲街区、大连市旅顺太阳沟历史文化街区、大连市东关街历史文化街区及阜新市红玛瑙旅游 休闲街区。这些街区都具有鲜明的文化主题和地域特色，具备旅游休闲、文化体验和公共服务等功能， 融合了观光、餐饮、娱乐、购物、住宿、休闲等业态。 随着旅游方式日益多元化，兼具游玩、文化和商业等元素在内的旅游休闲街区，成为一个独具特色 的休闲游目的地。近年来，我省大力推进文化、体育和旅游深度融合发展，紧扣高品质要求，积极培育 具有地域文化特色、规模效应良好的旅游休闲街区品牌项目，通过不断加强文旅品牌建设，进一步激发 文旅行业创新创造活力和市场消费动力。 为加大品牌创建力度，我省出台扶持政策，拿出真金白银鼓励和引导各地传统商业街区或新街区在 发展建设中融入更多旅游、休闲和文化等元素，以 ...

Group 1: Cultural and Tourism Integration - The integration of culture and tourism is being promoted to enhance the vitality of culture and the attractiveness of tourism, providing strong momentum for the development of the cultural tourism industry [1] - Xi Jinping emphasized the need to promote cultural prosperity and further strengthen the protection of historical and cultural heritage while advancing high-quality development in the cultural tourism industry during his visit to Henan [1] Group 2: Cultural Heritage and Archaeology - A large live-streaming event titled "Searching for National Treasures along the Central Plains Great Site Corridor" was launched, showcasing various historical sites in Henan and highlighting the province's rich cultural heritage [2] - Henan has been actively promoting major archaeological projects, with 55 archaeological discoveries recognized as "Top Ten New Archaeological Discoveries in the Country," ranking first nationwide [2] Group 3: Cultural Events and Performances - The Henan Provincial Acrobatic Troupe presented a large-scale red acrobatic drama "Attack Order," showcasing traditional acrobatic skills and revolutionary historical stories [5] - Numerous cultural works, including operas and dramas, have received national awards, indicating a positive trend in the quality and influence of Henan's cultural creations [5] Group 4: Public Engagement in Cultural Activities - Approximately 95 million people participated in the "New Era, New Journey, New Style" cultural activities in Henan, reflecting strong public engagement in cultural events [6] - Various activities during the "Cultural and Natural Heritage Day" aimed to revitalize intangible cultural heritage and integrate it into modern life [6] Group 5: Tourism Industry Development - The launch of the "One Machine Tour Henan" digital service platform aims to attract tourists by offering personalized travel experiences, reflecting the innovative approach to enhancing tourism consumption [7] - During the recent Dragon Boat Festival, Henan received 15.116 million tourists, generating 6.79 billion yuan in tourism revenue, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.7% and 5.3% respectively [7] Group 6: Immersive Cultural Experiences - Henan is focusing on creating immersive cultural experiences that make history and culture easily accessible to the public [8] - The province is enhancing cultural tourism performances, with new shows and interactive experiences being developed to engage visitors [9] Group 7: Urban Cultural Revitalization - Henan has transformed several urban areas into tourism and leisure districts, integrating historical elements with modern amenities to create vibrant cultural spaces [9] - The province has established 7 national-level and 56 provincial-level tourism leisure districts, promoting a diverse development model [9]

从滨水市集、Livehouse到便民零售、潮流餐饮，锦湾MIX街区的业态不仅涵盖了市民的衣食住 行，还规划了日常休闲以及创意办公等多方面。通过主题庆典、文艺演出等活动，打破商业与自然的界 限，丰富了社区居民的精神文化生活，让运河景观成为消费体验的一部分，进一步提升了街区的知名度 与活力。目前，锦湾一期已成功吸引30余家特色商户入驻。 杭州大运河畔将新增一处文旅新地标——运河湾国际旅游休闲综合体，未来将会给周边居民带来哪 些福音？一起来了解下。 运河湾国际旅游休闲综合体位于杭州城北核心，坐拥京杭大运河支流交汇的黄金区位，是杭州大城 北示范区的重要商业引擎。项目由西岸（锦湾MIX街区）与运河东岸（暂名）组成，整体以"运河之 舟"为品牌概念，寓意商业与自然、历史与现代的和谐共生。 锦湾MIX街区（9、10号地块）位于城北运河湾TOD板块，一、二期东西交链，呈开放式街区格 局，锦湾一期已于2024年12月盛大开街，二期预计2025年下半年开业。 运河东岸（暂名）对标上海"GATE M西岸梦中心（黄浦江滨水街区，总建筑面积16万平方米）"、 绍兴"绍兴天地（绍兴工业旧改项目，结合住宅办公和商业，总建筑面积37万平方米， ...

要进一步夯实实体经济这个根基，以科技创新为引领，因地制宜发展新质生产力，提升现代化产业体系 对高质量发展的支撑能力。 ——5月20日，习近平总书记在河南考察时强调 "十五五"时期，必须把因地制宜发展新质生产力摆在更加突出的战略位置，以科技创新为引领、以实体 经济为根基，坚持全面推进传统产业转型升级、积极发展新兴产业、超前布局未来产业并举，加快建设 现代化产业体系。 ——4月30日，习近平总书记主持召开部分省区市"十五五"时期经济社会发展座谈会时强调 现代化产业体系是现代化经济体系的重要内容，也是现代化国家的物质技术基础。党的十八大以来，习 近平总书记围绕建设现代化产业体系作出一系列重要论述。近日，习近平总书记在河南考察时强调，要 进一步夯实实体经济这个根基，以科技创新为引领，因地制宜发展新质生产力，提升现代化产业体系对 高质量发展的支撑能力。 产业兴，则城市兴；产业强，则城市强。作为我国重要的中心城市、粤港澳大湾区核心引擎，广州立足 资源禀赋、产业基础、科研条件，经过深入调研、反复论证，提出加快建设"12218"现代化产业体系， 擘画了重点产业发展的新蓝图。这是广州落实党中央决策部署和省委工作要求的战略之举、 ...

据悉，三月份刚刚正式启用的香港启德体育园，将成为2025年斯诺克世界大奖赛、香港国际七人橄榄球赛的举办地，也是今年第十五届全运会的香港主会 场。香港"亚洲盛事之都"定位的背后，是这座从曾经的国际机场，到如今世界级城市新中心的华丽蜕变，也象征着香港的再次起飞。 当我们将视线聚焦在这片维港滨水旁，可以看到海滨长廊伸向大海，直面这一城的山海之景和绝代风华，并收揽其中，城市新地标启德体育园、香港最大公 园都会公园和即将上市的全新住宅项目"花语海"互相串联，形成"运动活力+生态休闲+高端住宅"的黄金三角组合，实现了三个维度的稀缺性聚合，没错，这 就是维港都会公园圈。如果说启德大片区是香港面向未来的"城市引擎"，那么维港都会公园圈便是驱动其运转的能量核心。体现为零距离占据极其稀缺的自 然资源，并糅入文化、娱乐、艺术等强化生活方式属性的多个要素，是城市高能级发展的必然产物。 启德体育园自不必说，以启德主场馆为重心，启德体艺馆、启德青年运动场、启德零售馆、北斗园运动区、高升剧场等多元场景交织，提供吃、玩、游、 购、娱、展等其他消费体验以及更多的大型公共活动承办空间，重构香港的文化地理坐标。占地约24公顷的启德都会公园是香港最 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.05% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.07% [1] Institutional Insights - Zhongtai Securities suggests that market indices may maintain strong resilience due to the unexpected suspension of "reciprocal tariffs," which enhances short-term risk appetite. Structural divergences remain, and the space for long-term tariff reductions is limited. The current market environment shows a strengthening of total policy determination, improvement in core city real estate, and high historical levels of margin trading, which, combined with policies emphasizing indices, may support continued resilience in market indices [2] - Investment funds are expected to rotate around sectors with high first-quarter report performance and mid-term industry trends, including public utilities, AI upstream and leading technology firms, gold, nuclear power equipment, military industry, and consumer sectors related to younger demographics such as pets and beauty products. Investors are advised to accumulate positions in these sectors on dips and to focus on high-quality leaders in the CSI 300 with significantly lower institutional allocation compared to index component ratios [2] New Market Dynamics - Minsheng Securities notes that a new order and narrative are emerging as investors begin to price in the marginal easing of trade shocks. However, structural shocks will persist, and the return to fundamental pricing characteristics will gradually become evident. Future declines in total demand and the fluctuating path of trade easing may disrupt market tranquility. The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for technology breakthroughs influencing market risk appetite, while the current phase is characterized by a rotation in investor styles towards technology themes, which may lack sustainability [3] - The gradual establishment of a long-term mechanism for domestic consumption is expected to yield three sources of returns: net profit growth, dividend payments, and valuation increases, with recommendations for sectors such as home appliances, food and beverages, cosmetics, trendy toys, tourism, gaming, and online retail [3] - The restructuring of China's foreign trade system is likely to gradually reveal the value of capacities in advantageous industries, such as machinery and automotive manufacturing, while resource products with significant supply constraints (copper, aluminum, gold) may also see new opportunities [3] - As the economic transition progresses and real estate stabilizes, the de-financialization process in China is nearing its end. The current investment and financing environment for Chinese enterprises is improving, which may drive new expansions in the financial sector, particularly as the new domestic growth paradigm and the acceleration of the RMB internationalization process unfold [3]

A 股策略周报 20250518 ➢ 当下主题投资活跃，但力度未来很难回到一季度。2025 年 Q1 的主题行业 具备诸多条件的共振：经济基本面预期企稳向上为科技制造业提供了盈利基本 面，而主题行业本身又存在催化，甚至引领了中国资产重估的叙事。当前贸易 冲击阶段平复，但是全球经济在关税冲突前就在放缓的趋势仍未改变，未来出 口有新的扰动，中小盘成长由于对出口的暴露更高，表现波动也会明显放大； 当下贸易和谈带来的信心修复，来源恰好是中国总量供给在全球的优势，而不 是单一科技行业的突破，反而核心科技主题当下缺乏新产业催化做进一步支 撑。总结来看，2025 年 Q1 是科技突破引领市场风险偏好，而现在是市场风险 偏好修复投资者风格阶段轮动科技主题，持续性资产较弱。 ➢ 未破未立的尴尬，但新秩序，新故事一直在孕育。第一，内需消费长效机 制的逐步建立下板块具备净利润增长、股息支付和估值提升三类收益来源，推 荐家电、食品饮料、化妆品、潮玩、旅游休闲、游戏、线上零售等；详细分析 可参考前期周报《修复之后，关注变化》。第二，中国对外贸易体系重塑下部分 提前完成出清供需格局相对良好的中国优势产业的产能价值有望逐渐体现（机 械设备 ...

A 股策略周报 20250511 修复之后，关注变化 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ➢ 经济潜在的走弱即将验证，而对政策期待还需要时间兑现。此前全球大部分 市场基于贸易争端缓和预期的修复是一种短暂的平静，资产的波动率可能将再次 放大。本周中美市场似乎已经摸到"天花板"：A 股、港股都在刚好接近 4 月 2 日水平之前出现回落，美股在修复到 4 月 2 日水平时开始止步不前，两个市场都 需要支撑上涨的进一步证据。A 股自 4 月 2 日以来涨幅前 10 的二级行业平均海 外营收占比是 10%，而跌幅前 10 的二级行业平均海外营收占比是 8%，意味着 A 股的进一步修复要么需要贸易上出现积极改善信号，促使落后的外需型行业反 弹，要么是内部出现增量的扩内需政策。就前者而言，虽然中美经贸高层会谈于 当地时间 10 日上午在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，但从本周美国高调公布的"重大贸 易协议"仅是与英国之间达成了一份模糊的协议来看，要中美之间通过一次会议 接触就拿出一份有重大进展的贸易协议的难度很高，"夹在"中国供给和美国需 求之间的越南股市的较差表现也侧面印证了这一点。就后者而言，中美两国政策 都进入了"自动巡航"的阶段 ...