宏观动态报告 CPI 边际改善,PPI 延续回升 -9 月物价数据解读 2025 年 10月 15 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 日雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 研究助理:薄一程 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 2 CPI 边际改善, PPI 延续回升:本月 CPI 环比小幅改善,同比略有收窄,翘 ● 尾因素改善或使得 10月 CPI 继续回升。展望后市，一是关注猪肉产能的去化 进度。9月16日,国家发展和改革委员会联合农业农村部在北京召开生猪产 能调控企业座谈会,会议针对当前生猪市场供应过剩、价格持续低迷的现状, 部署了一系列精准调控措施,明确通过"减产能、严管控、建机制"组合拳推 动行业供需平衡。目前养猪利润已在9月底转负,尽管养猪企业正加速出栏去 化产能,但淘汰母猪将是长期缓慢的过程,猪 ...

"五大工程"驱动、"十大领域"攻坚，推动作风转变与民生改善双提升 海南加快推进自贸港先锋行动见行见效 海南日报全媒体记者 袁宇 "您好，请问有什么可以帮助的地方吗?"9月26日，行走在海口骑楼建筑历史文化街区，时不时可以 见到身穿红马甲的党员志愿者在街头为游客提供咨询、引导或其他力所能及的帮助。 党员亮身份，服务当先锋。这是今年初海南自贸港先锋行动开展后，海口市旅文局、中山街道党工 委、骑楼公司党支部围绕"先锋旅文 魅力海口"专项行动部署采取的系列举措之一，通过组织联建、党 员联动、部门联合，推动实现老街发展齐心、服务群众暖心、商户经营安心。 自贸港先锋行动开展以来，党的创新理论武装不断加强，党的组织生活基本制度落实越来越规范， 党员干部积极参与、争当表率，在自贸港建设一线建功。 海口市委组织部部务委员杨再东表示，现场会在海口召开，既是对海口的鼓励，也是对更好开展相 关工作的督促。海口把自贸港先锋行动作为党建的总抓手，特别是把学习教育和先锋行动深度结合起 来，相互促进，取得了初步成效。"下一步我们将坚决按照省委的要求，持续深化自贸港先锋行动各领 域的专项行动，突出重点任务落实，为自贸港封关运作和海口的'六个之 ...

图为桂林文旅新玩法—休闲漂 第十九届联合国旅游组织（UN Tourism）/亚太旅游协会（PATA）旅游趋势与展望大会将于9月18日至20日在桂林举行。大会以"协同前行：开拓旅游生态新 领域"为主题，聚焦韧性、可持续与智慧旅游发展，汇聚全球行业精英共商旅游业未来。为期三天的议程涵盖专家会议、全体大会与桂林经典+网红线路推 荐活动三大板块，亮点纷。 图为华南第一峰猫儿山 9月19日的开幕式上，联合国旅游组织执行主任刘士军、亚太旅游协会主席施明德、广西壮族自治区领导和桂林市主要领导将出席开幕式并致辞。主旨发言 环节，欧洲旅游巨头TUI将解读欧洲赴亚太地区客源市场动态，阿里巴巴集团飞猪旅行副总裁仝腾将分享旅游数字化实践经验。此外，当天两场核心小组讨 论将分别聚焦"智慧目的地建设"与"旅游经济成效衡量"，前者邀请西班牙、沙特阿拉伯、韩国等国际旅游机构代表，探索目的地可持续与韧性发展路径；后 者则通过马尔代夫政策实践、马来西亚砂拉越旅游经济振兴案例及PATA指数研发成果，为行业成效评估提供新方法。大会闭幕式将由广西壮族自治区文化 和旅游厅、联合国旅游组织、亚太旅游协会、香港理工大学代表总结发言，凝聚共识。 会后，桂林经 ...

（记者 曾健辉） 2024年1至12月份，西域旅游的营业收入构成为：旅游行业占比97.07%，旅游饮食服务业占比2.93%。 截至发稿，西域旅游市值为75亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——到底是不是预制菜？罗永浩大战贾国龙！记者实探西贝后厨，厨师长谈罗 永浩点的烤鱼：需门店二次切配等，不是加热即食 每经AI快讯，西域旅游（SZ 300859，收盘价：48.47元）9月12日晚间发布公告称，增持计划实施期 间，新疆文旅投已累计通过集中竞价交易和大宗交易方式增持公司股份约209万股，占公司总股本的 1.35%。截至本公告披露日，相关增持计划实施完毕。 ...

此次大会由湖北省文化和旅游厅、宜昌市人民政府主办，以"知音湖北·大美长江"为主题，通过搭建境 内外旅行商精准对接平台、组织特色线路踩线考察等系列活动，持续巩固湖北与全球旅行商合作基础， 拓展全球旅游行业合作版图。 中新社湖北宜昌9月6日电 (记者梁婷)知音湖北·2025全球旅行商大会暨宜昌市文化旅游发展大会6日在湖 北宜昌举行。来自全球41个国家和地区的境外旅行商代表、国际旅游组织代表、旅游专家学者、国内旅 行商代表等齐聚湖北，共探合作路径，助力构建合作共赢的国际文旅生态。 湖北文化旅游资源富集，正建设世界知名文化旅游目的地。当天，"知音湖北·全球合作伙伴"计划启 动，该省计划3年内在全球100个城市发展1000家合作伙伴，构建全球化、立体化的文化旅游推广网络。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 国际旅游联合会主席杜吕克表示，期待湖北开发如武当太极体验游等特色旅游线路，深化与海外游客的 情感联结。(完) ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Xiyu Tourism (SZ 300859) held its seventh board meeting on August 25, 2025, to review the 2025 semi-annual report and related documents [1] - For the year 2024, Xiyu Tourism's revenue composition is as follows: 97.07% from the tourism industry and 2.93% from the tourism dining service sector [1] - As of the report, Xiyu Tourism has a market capitalization of 7 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has seen trading volumes exceed 2 trillion yuan for eight consecutive days, indicating strong market activity [1] - Major brokerage firms are actively recruiting for autumn positions, with 25 job roles available, reflecting a demand for talent in the industry [1]

Group 1 - The South Korean government is considering implementing a "long weekend" system to stimulate consumption and boost the economy, similar to practices in the US and Japan [2] - A study commissioned by the South Korean Ministry of Economy and Finance suggests that the "Monday holiday system" could increase daily consumer spending by 2.1 trillion KRW, leading to an economic output boost of 3.8 trillion KRW and an added value of nearly 1.7 trillion KRW [2] - The restaurant and accommodation sectors are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries, with an estimated annual increase in consumer spending of about 6.3 trillion KRW if certain holidays are adjusted to Mondays [2] Group 2 - In contrast, China's current holiday system, which includes 11 statutory holidays and 104 weekends, faces criticism for the "work compression effect" caused by the adjustment of holidays [3] - Professor Wang Qiyan from Renmin University suggests that leisure tourism can stimulate domestic demand and promote economic growth, proposing a bold idea of adding 20 more days off annually, aiming for a "four days work, three days off" model by 2030 [3] - The online travel user base in China has been growing, reaching 454 million users by June 2023, with an internet penetration rate of 76.4% [3] Group 3 - Data from the China Tourism Academy and Mafengwo indicates that in 2021, tourism consumption was primarily concentrated in the 1,000-2,000 RMB range, accounting for 48.5%, suggesting room for growth in the mass tourism market [4] - Cultural and leisure activities enhance travelers' sense of experience, with 48.1% of respondents in a survey indicating stronger cultural perception during trips, and 29.0% feeling that cultural leisure activities better uplift their spirits [7] - Stable domestic demand is viewed as a crucial and sustainable driver for economic development, with a focus on building a new development pattern that emphasizes domestic circulation [7]

Core Viewpoint - Lingnan Holdings (000524) has shown a positive trend in financing activities, with a net financing purchase of 2.954 million yuan on August 21, 2025, and a total net purchase of 15.0441 million yuan over the last three trading days [1][4]. Financing Summary - On August 21, 2025, the financing balance reached 161 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 1.86% from the previous day [4]. - The financing activities over the last five trading days indicate fluctuating net purchases, with notable amounts of 8.8388 million yuan on August 20 and 3.2513 million yuan on August 19 [2][4]. - The financing net purchases have occurred in 11 out of the last 20 trading days, indicating sustained investor interest [1]. Margin Trading Summary - On August 21, 2025, there were no shares sold short, but 100 shares were repaid, resulting in a net short sale of 100 shares [3]. - The margin trading balance was recorded at 0 yuan on August 21, indicating no outstanding short positions [3]. Additional Information - Financing refers to the practice where securities companies lend money to investors to purchase stocks, while margin trading involves borrowing stocks to sell them, with the expectation of repurchasing them at a lower price [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company confirms that its production and operations are normal and there are no undisclosed significant matters [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company announced that its stock price has deviated significantly, with a cumulative increase of over 20% over three consecutive trading days, indicating unusual trading activity [1] - Following self-examination and verification with the controlling shareholder, the company stated that neither it nor the controlling shareholder has any undisclosed significant information or major matters under planning [1] - The company reassured that its current production and operational activities are normal, with no significant changes in market environment, industry policies, or daily operations [1]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Trends - The central government is reinforcing "anti-involution" policies to address low nominal economic growth and persistent negative PPI, focusing on eliminating low-price competition and overcapacity[1] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate was 74.10% at the end of Q1 2025, significantly below the historical average of 7.1% since 2018[16] - The PPI growth rate for coal mining and washing, general equipment, specialized equipment, automotive, and pharmaceuticals is at historically low levels, indicating potential "involution" issues in these sectors[17] Group 2: Industry Impact and Investment Opportunities - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" measures include coal mining, chemical raw materials, non-metallic minerals, and automotive manufacturing, which are expected to undergo significant policy scrutiny[17] - Recent price recovery in coal, rebar, and polysilicon suggests that the market has priced in expectations of "anti-involution" policies, presenting potential investment opportunities if policies align with market expectations[28] - If "anti-involution" policies fall short, there is a risk of price corrections in these industries, necessitating caution for investors[28] Group 3: Risks and Economic Challenges - The report highlights external uncertainties, including global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, which could exacerbate economic challenges[4] - The need for coordinated demand expansion policies alongside supply-side reforms is emphasized to mitigate potential structural pain in industrial production and employment[27] - The real estate sector is undergoing significant adjustments, impacting overall investment momentum and economic growth prospects[27]