点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 市场表现综述： 大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代2025.11.17-2025.11.21）国内权益市场指数震荡下 行。行业方面，本周各申万行业集体下跌，银行、传媒、食品饮料行业相对抗跌，电力设备、综合、基础 化工行业跌幅居前。基金市场方面，本周货币型及纯债型基金维持正收益，股混基金净值回撤。 ETF市场跟踪： 本周不同投资范围的ETF资金均呈现流入，各宽基主题ETF受被动资金显著加仓，TMT主题ETF资金净流 入明显。股票型ETF本周收益中位数为-4.61%，资金净流入495.33亿元。港股ETF本周收益中位数 为-6.25%，资金净流入178.21亿元。跨境ETF本周收益中位数为-3.42%，资金净流入23 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive outlook for the Chinese stock market, with foreign institutions increasing their investments and adjusting target indices upward for 2026, indicating a strong long-term investment potential in A-shares [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 20, 2025, the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index rose by 0.15%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Bluestar Technology (up 3.44%) and China National Materials (up 2.31%) [1]. - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF (560500) also saw a rise of 0.17%, reflecting overall positive market sentiment [1]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Multiple foreign institutions, including UBS and Morgan Stanley, have released optimistic reports for the Chinese stock market, collectively raising their target index levels for 2026 [1][2]. - Foreign institutional research and investment activities have been robust, with over 1,300 instances of foreign institutions conducting research on A-share companies since the beginning of the fourth quarter [1]. Group 3: Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued a plan to optimize the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, aiming to enhance cross-border investment facilitation [2]. - The ongoing improvements in the QFII system are expected to create a more stable and transparent environment for foreign investments in the Chinese capital market [2]. Group 4: Index Composition - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index comprises 100 high-profitability, sustainable earnings, and cash-rich growth companies selected from the CSI 500 Index [2]. - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 21.64% of the total index weight, with companies like Huagong Technology and Kaiying Network being significant constituents [2].

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:58，今日沪指涨0.09%，A股成交量1000.00亿股，成交金额14076.74 亿元，比上一个交易日减少10.91%。个股方面，1088只个股上涨，其中涨停57只，4280只个股下跌， 其中跌停22只。从申万行业来看，石油石化、国防军工、有色金属等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为2.78%、 1.46%、1.27%；综合、房地产、传媒等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为2.73%、1.97%、1.83%。 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:58） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 石油石化 | 2.78 | 134.27 | 10.82 | 中曼石油 | 4.37 | | 国防军工 | 1.46 | 558.99 | 17.88 | 江龙船艇 | 20.03 | | 有色金属 | 1.27 | 918.29 | -10.85 | 融捷股份 | 9.70 | | 美容护理 | 1.20 | 62.81 | 48.04 | 科思股份 | 8.12 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of various ETFs and sectors in the market, highlighting the strong performance of AI applications and financial technology sectors, while noting the overall market adjustments on November 18, 2025 [3][5]. Market Overview - The market temperature gauge indicates a significant portion of the indices are at high valuation levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index at a 96.05% percentile over the past decade [1]. - The article notes a general decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.81%, the ChiNext Index down by 0.92%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.16% [1]. Sector Performance - The media sector saw a net inflow of 2.533 billion, while the computer sector had an inflow of 1.172 billion, and the communication sector saw an inflow of 300 million [2]. - Conversely, the power equipment sector experienced a significant outflow of 20.528 billion, followed by the non-ferrous metals sector with an outflow of 7.351 billion, and the basic chemicals sector with an outflow of 7.157 billion [2]. ETF Performance - The article lists several ETFs with notable performance, including the AI-focused ETFs which have shown strong returns, with the AI application sector index rising nearly 1% on the reporting date [3][5]. - Specific ETFs such as the Big Data Industry ETF and the Financial Technology ETF have shown substantial growth over the past six months, with respective increases of 14.64% and 20.76% [3][8]. Investment Trends - The article emphasizes the potential for domestic AI applications to experience a turning point, driven by policy support and market growth, particularly in the financial technology sector [5][6]. - The financial technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a clear investment logic for 2026 based on ongoing policy support and market dynamics [5][6].

Summary of Key Points Group 1: Market Overview - A total of 73 stocks in the A-share market experienced block trading today, with a total transaction value of 2.048 billion yuan [1] - The top three stocks by transaction value were Shoulv Hotel (389 million yuan), YTO Express (243 million yuan), and Zijin Mining (181 million yuan) [1] Group 2: Price Transactions - Among the stocks, 11 stocks were traded at par value, 4 stocks at a premium, and 58 stocks at a discount [1] - The stocks with the highest premium rates were Beijing Bank (8.73%), Yantang Dairy (7.64%), and Zhongrong Electric (6.91%) [1] - The stocks with the highest discount rates were Betta Pharmaceuticals (22.51%), Wens Foodstuff Group (21.64%), and Lexin Technology (21.47%) [1] Group 3: Institutional Trading Activity - The top stocks by institutional buy amounts included Ningde Times (181 million yuan), YTO Express (97.957 million yuan), and Spring Wind Power (91.216 million yuan) [2] - The top stocks by institutional sell amounts included YTO Express (243 million yuan), Zijin Mining (181 million yuan), and Ningde Times (181 million yuan) [2]

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model Based on Profit Growth Rate **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses profit growth rate as the primary criterion for industry selection, supplemented by valuation and trading crowding metrics as risk indicators[7][27][29] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Profit Growth Metrics**: - Single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate - Marginal change in single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate Formula for marginal change: $ \text{Marginal Change} = \text{2025 Q3 Single-quarter YoY Growth} - \text{2024 Q3 Single-quarter YoY Growth} $[15][29] 2. **Valuation Metric**: - Historical PE_TTM percentile (2020 to present) is used to measure valuation levels across industries[18][21][29] 3. **Trading Crowding Metric**: - Standard deviation of turnover rate over the past three months is calculated to assess trading crowding[6][24][29] 4. **Comprehensive Scoring**: - Each metric is ranked, and weights are assigned: - Profit growth metrics: 0.3 each - Risk metrics (valuation and trading crowding): 0.2 each Formula for comprehensive scoring: $ \text{Comprehensive Score} = 0.3 \times \text{Net Profit YoY Growth} + 0.3 \times \text{Marginal Change} + 0.2 \times \text{Valuation Percentile} + 0.2 \times \text{Turnover Rate Std Dev} $[31][32] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industries with high profit growth and moderate risk levels, providing actionable allocation recommendations[7][27][32] Model Backtesting Results - **Industry Allocation Model**: - Portfolio return: 2.38% - Benchmark (Wind All A Index) return: 0.63% - Excess return: 1.75%[7][32] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Profit Growth Rate **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures industry profitability through single-quarter net profit growth and marginal changes in growth rates[7][29] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate 2. Marginal change in single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate Formula: $ \text{Marginal Change} = \text{2025 Q3 Single-quarter YoY Growth} - \text{2024 Q3 Single-quarter YoY Growth} $[15][29] **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures industries with strong profitability and growth momentum[7][29] - **Factor Name**: Valuation Percentile **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses historical PE_TTM percentiles to compare valuation levels across industries[18][21] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PE_TTM for each industry 2. Determine historical percentile (2020 to present) for PE_TTM values[18][21] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a standardized comparison of valuation levels across industries, mitigating biases from absolute PE differences[21][29] - **Factor Name**: Turnover Rate Standard Deviation **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures trading crowding by assessing the volatility of turnover rates over the past three months[6][24] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate daily turnover rates for each industry over the past three months 2. Compute standard deviation of turnover rates[6][24] **Factor Evaluation**: Identifies industries with extreme trading behaviors, serving as a risk indicator[6][24] Factor Backtesting Results - **Profit Growth Rate Factor**: - Steel: 203.31% YoY growth, 380.75% marginal change[10][15] - Electronics: 57.42% YoY growth, 59.99% marginal change[10][15] - Media: 58.63% YoY growth, 82.75% marginal change[10][15] - Defense: 29.52% YoY growth, 83.60% marginal change[10][15] - Utilities: 17.77% YoY growth, 19.81% marginal change[10][15] - **Valuation Percentile Factor**: - Steel: 99.72%[21][29] - Electronics: 98.94%[21][29] - Media: 90.40%[21][29] - Defense: 97.10%[21][29] - Utilities: 55.31%[21][29] - **Turnover Rate Standard Deviation Factor**: - Steel: 50.48%[6][29] - Electronics: 96.51%[6][29] - Media: 84.50%[6][29] - Defense: 82.79%[6][29] - Utilities: 25.21%[6][29]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.41% to close at 3960.1860 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.71% to 13175.221 points as of November 4 [1] Group 1: Top Gainers in Hunan Stocks - Changlan Technology opened at 16.740 and closed at 17.050, gaining 1.85% with a highest price of 17.720 and a lowest of 16.690, trading volume was 52,194 lots [2] - Mengjie Co., Ltd. opened at 4.270 and closed at 4.340, increasing by 1.64% with a highest price of 4.380 and a lowest of 4.260, trading volume was 239,327 lots [2] - Hunan Development opened at 13.100 and closed at 13.190, up by 1.46% with a highest price of 13.360 and a lowest of 13.020, trading volume was 247,072 lots [2] - Hunan Investment opened at 5.710 and closed at 5.780, rising by 1.40% with a highest price of 5.790 and a lowest of 5.660, trading volume was 170,367 lots [2] - Tianqiao Hoisting opened at 4.400 and closed at 4.510, increasing by 1.35% with a highest price of 4.530 and a lowest of 4.390, trading volume was 787,041 lots [2] Group 2: Top Losers in Hunan Stocks - Hengli Retreat opened at 0.160 and closed at 0.150, decreasing by 11.76% with a highest price of 0.170 and a lowest of 0.150, trading volume was 611,606 lots [3] - Qidi Pharmaceutical opened at 12.090 and closed at 11.450, down by 5.61% with a highest price of 12.090 and a lowest of 11.430, trading volume was 145,241 lots [3] - Kaimete Gas opened at 23.830 and closed at 23.340, falling by 4.70% with a highest price of 24.290 and a lowest of 23.130, trading volume was 763,116 lots [3] - Hunan Silver opened at 6.280 and closed at 6.130, declining by 3.46% with a highest price of 6.300 and a lowest of 6.090, trading volume was 991,979 lots [3] - Hunan Gold opened at 20.980 and closed at 20.530, decreasing by 3.16% with a highest price of 21.170 and a lowest of 20.260, trading volume was 473,720 lots [3]

今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指跌0.19%，A股成交量831.73亿股，成交金额12311.27 亿元，比上一个交易日减少11.93%。个股方面，1567只个股上涨，其中涨停55只，3712只个股下跌， 其中跌停5只。从申万行业来看，银行、煤炭、石油石化等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.99%、0.67%、 0.55%；有色金属、电力设备、美容护理等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为2.16%、1.76%、1.75%。（数据宝） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 1.99 | 290.04 | 19.76 | 厦门银行 | 6.48 | | 煤炭 | 0.67 | 102.90 | -15.16 | 安泰集团 | 9.94 | | 石油石化 | 0.55 | 78.83 | -27.65 | 统一股份 | 10.00 | | 公用事业 | 0.42 | 233.56 | 2.94 | 德龙汇能 | 10.00 | | 轻 ...

截至10月31日，市场最新融资余额为24689.20亿元，较上个交易日环比减少122.60亿元，分行业统计， 申万所属一级行业有13个行业融资余额增加，计算机行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加6.64亿元； 融资余额增加居前的行业还有公用事业、交通运输、建筑装饰等，融资余额分别增加5.11亿元、4.21亿 元、2.73亿元；融资余额减少的行业有18个，电子、通信、有色金属等行业融资余额减少较多，分别减 少62.15亿元、24.95亿元、15.15亿元。 以幅度进行统计，交通运输行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为411.82亿元，环比增长1.03%，其 次是公用事业、建筑装饰、纺织服饰行业，环比增幅分别为0.99%、0.71%、0.51%；融资余额环比降幅 居前的行业有通信、食品饮料、电子等，最新融资余额分别有1114.75亿元、527.97亿元、3643.60亿 元，分别下降2.19%、1.77%、1.68%。（数据宝） 10月31日各行业融资余额环比变动 | 代码 | 最新融资余额（亿元） | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机 | ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.11% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67% and the ChiNext Index gained 0.50%. In contrast, the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.43% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 2,859 stocks rose, accounting for 52.58%, while 2,517 stocks declined [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The total net outflow of main funds this week was 206.639 billion yuan. The ChiNext saw a net outflow of 58.734 billion yuan, the STAR Market had a net outflow of 26.272 billion yuan, and the CSI 300 components experienced a net outflow of 86.878 billion yuan [2] - Daily fund flow data indicates significant outflows on October 30 and 31, with net outflows of 100.637 billion yuan and 62.903 billion yuan respectively [2] Industry Performance - In the Shenwan industry classification, 20 out of 28 sectors experienced gains this week. The top-performing sectors were electric power equipment and non-ferrous metals, with increases of 4.29% and 2.56% respectively. The sectors with the largest declines were telecommunications and beauty care, with decreases of 3.59% and 2.21% respectively [2] - The electronic industry had the largest net outflow of funds, totaling 64.443 billion yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.65%. The telecommunications sector followed with a net outflow of 28.418 billion yuan and a decline of 3.59% [3] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1,643 stocks saw net inflows this week, with 229 stocks having net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan. The stock with the highest net inflow was 360, which rose by 14.55% with a net inflow of 2.313 billion yuan [4] - Conversely, 566 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with ZTE, SMIC, and Newyeason leading in net outflows of 6.252 billion yuan, 5.685 billion yuan, and 5.678 billion yuan respectively [4]