长的影响。总体来说，国内旧作供应偏紧，加上需求改善预期，有望提振短期棉花走势，中期走势受到新 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14120 | 105 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20165 | 90 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -54544 | -6028 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -709 | -329 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 504609 | 19701 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 22276 | 318 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 7104 | -94 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) -8 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 63 | -1 | | 现货市场 ...

20250823棉系周报： 短期去库仍存支撑 关注下游旺季表现 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年8月23日 周度综述：摘要 | 因素 | 性质 | 观点概览 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、中国央行15日发布的2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告(下称"报告")表示，把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策 的重要考量,推动物价保持在合理水平。 | | 宏观 | 中性偏多 | 2、据21世纪经济报道,规模高达5000亿元的新型政策性金融工具将出,重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域,具体包括数字 | | | | 经济、人工智能、低空经济、消费领域、绿色低碳、农业农村、交通物流、城市基础设施等，国家开发银行、中国农业发展 | | | | 银行、中国进出口银行等政策性银行参与其中。 | | | | 国际方面，近期美国棉区干旱程度略有缓解，推动优良率出现小幅回转、预计8月中旬得州仍有少量降水，8月下旬仍有少量 | | 供应 | | 降水。巴西新棉收获进度近半，为五 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产 量2539.2万吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口267.7亿 美元，同比下降0.1%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增 加15.38%。农村部8月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存823 万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15243，基差1213（01合约），升水期货；偏 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton spot trading is average, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The spot basis remains relatively stable. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has rebounded, but overall it is still average, and the yarn price continues to rise slightly. The ICE cotton futures are in short - term oscillation waiting for new drivers [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For CF2601, the closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton with no change. The trading volume was 209,409 lots, a decrease of 31,617 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 759,524 lots, a decrease of 4,507 lots. For CY2511, the closing price was 20,145 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 20,160 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. The trading volume was 7,879 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,914 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.53 cents/pound, a 0.46% decline [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,762, a decrease of 67 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 249 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 69, a decrease of 5 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0, an increase of 74 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,292 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,983 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,243 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 75.34 cents/pound, an increase of 0.26 cents/pound (0.35%) from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (- 0.10%) from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB information, the cotton spot trading is average, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The offers of cotton in inland warehouses are relatively numerous, and the spot basis remains relatively stable. Different regions and qualities of cotton have different sales bases [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has rebounded, with increased downstream restocking purchases, but overall it is still average. The feedback from textile enterprises varies greatly, and the yarn price continues to rise slightly [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined slightly yesterday. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season, providing support for the ICE cotton futures. The ICE cotton is in short - term oscillation waiting for new drivers [2]. 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The overall market remains under pressure, and it is recommended to go short after rebounds [7]. Summary by Directory Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply and Demand Balance**: Since the 2021/22 season, due to the impact of the macro - economy and the pandemic, cotton consumption has been frustrated, while production has remained at a relatively high level. The domestic cotton market has shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the price center has moved down. In the 2024/25 season, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to be optimistic, but demand still faces pressure, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose [13]. - **New Cotton Growth**: In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the output reached a high in recent years. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, the weather in the producing areas was generally good, and there was a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Currently, the new cotton is growing well, but attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [19]. - **Inventory Situation**: The 2023/24 season had sufficient cotton supply and a high carry - over inventory. At present, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. However, industrial inventory has remained at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still relatively high. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 89.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from the previous month [23][24]. - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a decrease of 25.0% from the previous month and 82.1% from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3% [34][43]. Downstream Demand - **Demand Status**: Overseas interest - rate cuts are still uncertain, and the US tariff policy is also uncertain. The domestic policy is boosting the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Although downstream orders for gauze have improved recently, overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and the finished product inventory is high [47]. - **Retail and Export Data**: In July 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 9.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 83.11 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 2.6766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. From January to July, China's textile and clothing exports were 17.041 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.63% [50]. Global Supply and Demand Situation - **Global Balance**: In the 2024/26 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption will also recover significantly, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to decline, demand will be stable, and the ending inventory will decrease [71]. - **US Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, the planting area of US cotton increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the output increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the output is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. Last week, US cotton export sales rebounded [72][73]. Spread and Basis - **Spread**: The report shows the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads of cotton, and the data changes over time [100]. - **Basis**: The report presents the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09, and the data changes over time [102].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton present a neutral outlook. The 25/26 annual production and consumption data from different institutions show a relatively balanced supply - demand situation. The market is expected to enter the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, and if the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract can hold above the 14,000 mark, there will be further upward momentum. In the short term, it will fluctuate in the range of 14,050 - 14,250 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors are the postponement of trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the off - season of consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions' reports on the 25/26 annual cotton production and consumption data vary. For example, the ICAC 8 - month report shows a production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons; the USDA 8 - month report shows a production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. Customs data shows that in July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 25/26 annual data shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,234, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1109, indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast of the ending inventory in July for the 25/26 annual is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position has decreased. The main trend is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the market sentiment is optimistic. If the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract can stabilize above the 14,000 mark, there will be further upward momentum. In the short term, it will fluctuate in the range of 14,050 - 14,250 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The report provides the production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2024/25 (July and August data), as well as the monthly adjustments and year - on - year changes [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 annual, the global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is basically flat at 2.56 million tons; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26 (July forecast), data such as the beginning inventory, sowing area, harvest area, yield per unit area, production, import, consumption, ending inventory, domestic cotton 3128B average price, and Cotlook A index are provided [14]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

棉系周报：下游稳定为主 棉价震荡略偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（8.11-8.15） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花走势反弹，01重新站上14000关口。金九银十消费旺季即将到来，市场预期增强。除 非订单一开始就偏少，否则短期走势偏强。不排除先涨后跌的情况出现。 ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产量2539.2万 吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口267.7亿美元，同比 下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增加0.1%。农 村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unexpectedly positive USDA report, both domestic and international cotton prices rebounded. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the US for 90 days is also favorable for domestic cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, recent downstream consumption has been average, with the operating rate remaining at a historically low level and the pace of cotton inventory reduction slowing down. Overall, short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In the international market, the price of US cotton futures rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 67.48 cents per pound, up 0.84 cents per pound from the previous week, a increase of 1.26%. The December - March spread of US cotton weakened slightly, closing at - 1.55 cents per pound on Friday, down 0.12 cents per pound from the previous week. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,120 yuan per ton, up 320 yuan per ton from the previous week, a increase of 2.32%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,216 yuan per ton, up 38 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened significantly, closing at 1,163 yuan per ton on Friday, down 287 yuan per ton from the previous week. The January - May spread of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, closing at 30 yuan per ton on Friday, down 20 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week ending August 15, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill operating rate was 37%, unchanged from the previous week; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous week. According to the USDA's August supply - demand report, the global cotton production forecast for August was 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons from the July forecast. Among them, the US production forecast was lowered by 300,000 tons to 2.88 million tons due to a 15% reduction in the planted area compared to the July forecast; China's production forecast was raised by 110,000 tons to 6.86 million tons; the production forecasts for Brazil and India remained unchanged. The global consumption forecast was lowered by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons, and the ending inventory was lowered by 740,000 tons to 16.09 million tons. The US inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased by 6.12 percentage points to 26.28% [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: No trading strategy suggestions were provided [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, domestic and international spreads, and US cotton spreads, etc., to show the historical trends of various spreads [26][28][30]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Production**: Charts show the processing and inspection volume and total processing volume of domestic cotton [39]. - **Imports**: Include the monthly and annual cumulative import volume of domestic cotton, the cumulative and weekly export contract volume of the US to China, and the monthly and annual cumulative import volume of domestic cotton yarn [41][43][45]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Show the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [47]. - **Sales Progress**: Include the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [50]. - **Inventory**: Include the weekly commercial inventory of domestic cotton, the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory, and the raw material and finished - product inventories of spinning mills [53][55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: Show the net positions of CFTC funds and commercial entities [59]. - **US Situation**: Include the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the cotton good - to - excellent rate, the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volume, production and planted area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [61][63][70][72][73]. - **Brazil Situation**: Include the planted area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [75][78][80]. - **India Situation**: Include the planted area, production, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [83][86][88].

Core Viewpoint - Cotton is evolving from a traditional textile material to a multifunctional resource, capable of producing valuable compounds like astaxanthin through advanced biotechnological methods [4][12]. Group 1: Cotton's Traditional Uses - Cotton fibers are categorized into three main types: coarse short-staple cotton, fine-staple cotton, and long-staple cotton, each serving different textile applications [4]. - The majority of cotton grown in China is fine-staple cotton, which is widely used in everyday textiles and medical supplies [4]. Group 2: Innovative Applications - The development of engineered cotton capable of producing astaxanthin, a potent natural antioxidant, represents a significant advancement in cotton's utility [6][12]. - Astaxanthin is recognized for its superior antioxidant properties compared to vitamin E and β-carotene, with applications in food, feed, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics [6]. Group 3: By-products and Sustainability - Cotton seeds are a major source of edible oil and protein for animal feed, with cottonseed meal being the second-largest source of plant protein in China [8]. - Cotton by-products, such as cottonseed hulls and short fibers, have diverse applications in food, pharmaceuticals, and biodegradable materials, enhancing the overall value of cotton production [9][10]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The integration of synthetic biology in cotton research is expected to lead to the development of new cotton varieties with enhanced functionalities and colors, reducing environmental impact from dyeing processes [12]. - The ongoing research aims to expand cotton's application across agriculture, food, health products, energy, and environmental sectors, positioning cotton as a versatile and sustainable resource [11][12].