PVC开工小幅提升，社会库存累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 氯碱日报 | 2025-11-28 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4517元/吨（+28）；华东基差-57元/吨（-18）;华南基差-27元/吨（-28）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4460元/吨（+10）；华南电石法报价4490元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+25）；电石利润-100元/吨（+25）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-848元/吨（-28）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-516元/吨（-25）；PVC出口利润-3.4美元/吨（-8.8）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存31.5万吨（-0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.21%（+2.06%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.12%（-0.19%）；PVC开工率78.85%（+1.37%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.6万吨（-2.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2238元/吨（+9）；山东32%液碱基差106元/吨（-40）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价750元/吨（-10）；山东 ...

资料显示，潍坊亚星化学股份有限公司位于山东省潍坊市奎文区北宫东街321号，成立日期1994年8月11 日，上市日期2001年3月26日，公司主营业务涉及烧碱、CPE等化工产品的研发、生产与销售。主营业 务收入构成为：化工产品99.86%，其他0.14%。 亚星化学所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学原料-氯碱。所属概念板块包括：小盘、新材料、储能、国资 改革、山东国资等。 截至9月30日，亚星化学股东户数1.48万，较上期减少5.84%；人均流通股26223股，较上期增加 30.47%。2025年1月-9月，亚星化学实现营业收入6.41亿元，同比减少2.53%；归母净利润-1.44亿元，同 比减少46.40%。 分红方面，亚星化学A股上市后累计派现2.24亿元。近三年，累计派现0.00元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 11月27日，亚星化学盘中上涨2.07%，截至09:53，报8.89元/股，成交3094.40万元，换手率0.91%，总市 值34.47亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入151.70万元，大单买入508.36万元，占比16.43%，卖出356.66万元，占 比11.53%。 亚星化学今年以来股价涨85.21 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Styrene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Plastic: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Glass: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical futures market shows a complex trend. Some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market conditions, presenting different price trends such as consolidation, upward or downward movement [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different medium - and short - term outlooks. Some products are expected to be strong in the medium term, while others have limited medium - term rebound space or are in a state of range - bound consolidation [3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures are weakly consolidating around the 5 - day moving average. Tight supply in Shandong has pushed up prices, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upside [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures are in a bearish pattern. Stable domestic supply and weakening demand have led to poor market trading [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are volatile. Although there are factors such as potential supply improvement and rising prices, high arrival expectations and weakening demand may lead to range - bound consolidation [3] - Styrene futures are consolidating at a low level. Improved supply - demand structure and repaired profits may keep the short - term state, with limited upward momentum [3] Polyester - PX is expected to be weak in the short term but strong in the medium term due to factors such as weakened demand and potential supply decline from maintenance [5] - PTA is driven by cost, with expectations of improved processing margins. Ethylene glycol has short - term price rebounds but limited medium - term upside [5] - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle chip is mainly cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's near - month contract is strong, and there are expectations of port destocking. It may be appropriate to go long unilaterally or do positive spreads on the month - to - month difference [6] - Urea prices may return to a stalemate. Although there is demand release, the oversupply situation is expected to continue [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC is in a volatile trend. With potential improvement in exports and cost support, it may follow cost changes [7] - Caustic soda is also volatile. High production and weak demand lead to a weak market, and attention should be paid to profit changes [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in a volatile trend. Although there is destocking, the long - term supply may exceed demand. Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8] - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with potential production line cold repairs and cost support [8]

烧碱产业日报 2025-11-26 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2229 | -19 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 150260 | 5169 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -19656 | -2067 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 241509 | 79282 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2229 | -19 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2380 | -15 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -19656 | -2067 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 760 | 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日, ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Methanol - Short - term outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish. Inner - land marginal devices are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operation. Iranian devices are starting to limit gas and stop production, but the current shipment volume is still high [1][2]. Polyolefin - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and slight inventory depletion. PE shows supply increasing and demand decreasing, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is under relatively high pressure [6]. Natural Rubber - The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and terminal demand support is insufficient. The price trend depends on the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Affected by news, the geopolitical premium is declining, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the support level of Brent at $60 per barrel and the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drive is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in November - December, but loose from December to the first quarter. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to oscillate at a low level. - Short - fiber: The absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Supply is generally loose, demand support is limited, and the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. - Styrene: Although the short - term supply - demand is expected to improve, the overall drive is limited, and the 01 contract should be treated with oscillation [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although there is short - term inventory depletion, the medium - term demand is expected to remain rigid. - Glass: There is short - term rigid demand support, but there are concerns about the long - term demand, and the price may be under pressure [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is difficult to be optimistic, continuing the weak trend [15]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down, while the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 8.70%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with port inventory down 4.16% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, while some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid increased [2]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all closed down, and the regional spreads and basis had different degrees of changes. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates increased slightly [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased, and the basis and non - standard price spread changed. - **Fundamentals**: Production in major producing countries decreased, tire production and exports decreased, and inventory increased. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of various refined oils decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some polyester products decreased, and the cash flow and processing fees had different degrees of changes. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the supply was relatively high while the demand was weak. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to change in different periods. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to be in a low - level oscillation. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip Price and Spread**: Short - fiber prices and spreads changed, and bottle - chip supply - demand was loose [11]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and related raw materials changed, and the spreads and import profits also changed. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: Styrene prices and spreads changed, and the cash flow improved. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Price and Spread**: Glass prices in different regions and futures prices had different degrees of changes. - **Soda Ash Price and Spread**: Soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories changed. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas had different degrees of change [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda and their spreads changed. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of PVC and caustic soda supply - side and demand - side industries changed, and the inventory changed [15].

滨化股份2025年三季报显示，公司前三季度营业收入为111.48亿元，同比增长47.35%；归母净利润为1.92亿元，同比增长1.63%。 公开数据显示，滨化股份净利润已连续三年出现下滑，2022年至2024年，滨化股份分别实现营业收入88.92亿元、73.06亿元、102.28亿 元；实现归母净利润11.78亿元、3.83亿元、2.19亿元。 来自金联创的分析称，环氧丙烷价格跌幅大于原料，是滨化股份利润大幅收缩的主因。滨化股份在半年度报告中也坦言，环氧丙烷市场 面临价格下跌、利润下滑、供应过剩和需求疲软的挑战，新增产能持续落地，价格多保持低位。 经济导报记者 王伟 滨化股份位于山东黄河三角洲腹地的滨州市，2010年2月在上交所上市，注册资本6.6亿元，总资产55.82亿元。其具有四十年丰富的烧碱 和环氧丙烷生产经验，是全国最早生产油田助剂的厂商之一，是我国较大的三氯乙烯、油田助剂供应商和重要的环氧丙烷及烧碱产品生 产商，拥有环氧丙烷、三氯乙烯、油田助剂和烧碱四大主营业务格局及独具特色的循环经济一体化生产模式，为国内化工氯碱行业具有 较大影响力的企业。其产品现已覆盖全国三十一个省、市、自治区，并远销亚、美、欧 ...

11月25日，中泰化学（维权）盘中上涨2.16%，截至14:27，报4.73元/股，成交2.15亿元，换手率 1.79%，总市值122.51亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入1004.11万元，特大单买入2520.66万元，占比11.75%，卖出2214.62万 元，占比10.32%；大单买入4390.06万元，占比20.46%，卖出3691.99万元，占比17.20%。 中泰化学所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学原料-氯碱。所属概念板块包括：低价、煤化工、可降解、破 净股、水泥等。 中泰化学今年以来股价涨9.74%，近5个交易日跌7.98%，近20日涨0.64%，近60日跌3.07%。 资料显示，新疆中泰化学股份有限公司位于新疆乌鲁木齐经济技术开发区阳澄湖路39号，成立日期2001 年12月18日，上市日期2006年12月8日，公司主营业务涉及聚氯乙烯树脂、离子膜烧碱等化工产品的生 产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：聚氯乙烯39.69%，氯碱类产品14.99%，粘胶纱线14.83%，其他煤化 工产品11.21%，粘胶纤维7.17%，其他纺织产品5.91%，其他(补充)3.40%，现代贸易1.35%，物流运输 1. ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-25 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4496元/吨（+40）；华东基差-56元/吨（-20）;华南基差4元/吨（-20）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4440元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4500元/吨（+20）。 PVC底部空间缩窄，烧碱现货跟跌 市场要闻与重要数据 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2805元/吨（+0）；电石利润-125元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-848元/吨（-28）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-516元/吨（-25）；PVC出口利润12.9美元/吨（+0.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存31.5万吨（-0.7）；PVC社会库存52.7万吨（-0.6）；PVC电石法开工率80.15%（+0.58%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.31%（+1.18%）；PVC开工率77.48%（+0.77%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.6万吨（-2.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2241元/吨（+5）；山东32%液碱基差134元/吨（-68）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价760元/吨（-20）；山东50% ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Yinglite has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.08%, while the company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 13.75% but a decline of 5.95% over the last five trading days [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 24, Yinglite's stock price is 8.85 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.488 billion CNY [1]. - The trading volume reached 99.83 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 3.75% [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 6.1828 million CNY, with large orders accounting for 6.38% of total buying and 12.57% of total selling [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yinglite reported operating revenue of 1.28 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.97% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -247 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.07% [2]. Group 3: Business Overview - Yinglite, established on November 12, 1996, and listed on November 20, 1996, is located in Shizuishan, Ningxia [1]. - The company's main business includes the production and sale of calcium carbide, lime nitrogen, dicyandiamide, caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride resin, liquid chlorine, and hydrochloric acid [1]. - The revenue composition of Yinglite's main business includes PVC (52.21%), caustic soda (28.20%), E-PVC (12.83%), and other chemical products [1].

烧碱周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第二章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 液碱市场供需处于供增需弱、累库施压、利润收缩的格局，短期走势偏空。供给端虽然部分装置检修，但行业整体开工负荷率提升至90.29%，烧碱产量环 比增加0.55%至87.10万吨，供应压力未减反而微增。需求端支撑有限。尽管主力下游氧化铝产能运行率回升至76.76%，刚需尚在，但非铝下游接货积极 性不高，且粘胶短纤行业亏损加剧，市场观望情绪浓厚，整体需求表现平淡。 库存端累库明显。山东32%液碱工厂库存环比大增13.39%，华东样本企业 库存更是激增25.78%，厂家出货压力加大。利润端大幅缩减。受液碱和液氯价格双降影响，氯碱企业盈利恶化。山东无自备电厂企业ECU由盈转亏，有自 备电厂企业盈利也大幅下滑28.83%。鉴于供应充足且库存持续累积，加上下游买涨不买跌的谨慎心态，市场缺 ...