1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.7% to 84.6% week - on - week; the downstream alumina开工率 increased by 0.10% to 82.58%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 52.57%. The national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 4.93% to 52.54 tons, with production enterprises in North China actively accumulating inventory due to bullish expectations. The prices of caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the chlor - alkali profit increased to 323 yuan/ton. The increase in 50 - alkali exports boosted the spot market atmosphere, but due to the strong liquid chlorine price and the repair of chlor - alkali profit, there were few planned maintenance devices in April, and the improvement of domestic supply - demand was limited. The daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2200 - 2350 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the futures holding volume was 201,115 hands, an increase of 11,137 hands; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was 3,254 hands, an increase of 1,960 hands; the futures trading volume was 427,939 hands, an increase of 106,468 hands. The closing price of the January contract was 2,427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 737 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,303 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was - 37 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 222.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 20th to March 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%. From March 21st to 27th, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.10% to 82.58%; from March 20th to 26th, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 52.57%. As of March 26th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 525,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 4.93% and a year - on - year increase of 14.28%. The SH2605 contract fell 4.13% to close at 2,250 yuan/ton. Market expectations are that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East will ease. The average weekly profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong from March 20th to March 26th was 323 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, geopolitical conflicts lead to increased volatility in the market. Overseas ethylene - based PVC supply is tightened, while domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply issues. The demand side is gradually recovering, but the spot supply pressure from the cancellation of March PVC warehouse receipts is large. The cost - side pressure is still being transmitted, and the social inventory pressure has been somewhat alleviated [3]. - For caustic soda, international geopolitical conflicts lead to an expected passive reduction in overseas chlor - alkali plant loads, increasing export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products and raising export quotes. The price of 50% caustic soda has weakened, while the 32% caustic soda price has followed the upward trend. The supply - side operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand - side non - aluminum industry has seen an increase in rigid demand procurement, with alumina production showing a slight improvement [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Key Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5353 yuan/ton (-198), the East China basis is -153 yuan/ton (-42), and the South China basis is 27 yuan/ton (+8) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5200 yuan/ton (-240), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5380 yuan/ton (-190) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 3165 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 275 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -35 yuan/ton (-228), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -778 yuan/ton (-344), and the PVC export profit is 80.7 US dollars/ton (-58.8) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 33.9 tons (-2.7), the social PVC inventory is 60.0 tons (-1.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 84.66% (+0.27%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 68.66% (+2.81%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.67% (+1.06%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.9 tons (-0.6) [1]. Market Analysis - Geopolitical conflicts cause increased market volatility. Overseas ethylene - based PVC raw material supply is tightened, and domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply problems. The calcium carbide - based PVC has improved profits and increased some loads. The demand side is gradually recovering, but the spot supply pressure from the cancellation of March PVC warehouse receipts is large. The cost - side pressure is still being transmitted, and the social inventory pressure has been somewhat alleviated, but domestic trade transactions are average [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Key Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2340 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -37 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 737 yuan/ton (-1), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1340 yuan/ton (-60) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1299 yuan/ton (-3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 827.2 yuan/ton (-43.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 296.16 yuan/ton (-123.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1868.03 yuan/ton (-50.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 52.00 tons (+2.00), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.40 tons (-0.20), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.60% (+0.70%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 82.58% (+0.10%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 52.57% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.36% (+0.39%) [2]. Market Analysis - International geopolitical conflicts lead to an expected passive reduction in overseas chlor - alkali plant loads, increasing export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products and raising export quotes. The price of 50% caustic soda has weakened, while the 32% caustic soda price has followed the upward trend. The supply - side operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand - side non - aluminum industry has seen an increase in rigid demand procurement, with alumina production showing a slight improvement. Domestic trade follow - up is limited, and caustic soda is accumulating in Shandong and Jiangsu. The price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has increased, while the cost support has weakened [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Export orders have improved, but the pressure of supply surplus remains high. The 2605 contract of caustic soda is still recommended to be short - allocated on rallies, with a reference operating range of 2,150 - 2,550 yuan/ton [1][33] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Overview of Caustic Soda Fundamentals - Since March, the intensifying conflict between the US and Iran has driven the chemical sector to strengthen, causing caustic soda futures to rise at the beginning of the month but fall sharply this week. The main reason is that after the geopolitical sentiment subsides, the trading logic returns to the fundamentals. The short - term surplus pattern, approaching contract delivery, and high liquid chlorine prices suppress the price [4]. - As of March 31, the 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,340 yuan/ton. Driven by futures premium and export improvement expectations, the spot price rebounded to 2,303 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to - 37 yuan/ton [4]. - As of March 27, the latest weekly output reached 851,000 tons, remaining at a five - year high. High profits lead to weak maintenance willingness of chlor - alkali plants. The latest national weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda reached 520,000 tons, maintaining the inventory accumulation trend [4] 2. Impact of the US - Iran Conflict on Caustic Soda Fundamentals - The US - Iran conflict affects caustic soda fundamentals in two ways: potential overseas production cuts due to global energy price changes and support for caustic soda prices from the pressure on liquid chlorine prices caused by the reduction of PVC ethylene method production. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Asian (ex - China) and European natural gas shortages may lead to chlor - alkali plant production cuts, and China's export orders are expected to increase. The international price of caustic soda has risen from $340/ton to $480/ton, with an export profit of 458 yuan/ton, and export inquiries are active. However, short - term export channels and transportation capacity limitations are expected to restrict the actual export volume [17]. - The current data does not support the expectation of pressured liquid chlorine prices. Although the output of ethylene - based PVC has decreased due to rising crude oil prices, the output of calcium carbide - based PVC has increased, causing the total PVC output to rise. Moreover, due to the higher chlorine consumption of the calcium carbide method, the liquid chlorine price has rebounded after a short - term decline, currently at 300 yuan/ton. The prices of liquid chlorine and liquid caustic soda have risen simultaneously, and chlor - alkali plants have insufficient willingness to reduce production [17] 3. Outlook for the Future - Although export orders have improved, short - term exports are difficult to increase significantly. In reality, the new production capacity of caustic soda is gradually releasing output, and the inventory remains high. The short - term supply surplus pattern is difficult to change. In addition, the high premium of the 05 contract may increase the number of registered warehouse receipts, and the delivery pressure will also put pressure on the near - month 05 contract [33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For PVC, geopolitical conflicts lead to increased market volatility. Overseas ethylene - based PVC supply is tightened, while domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply problems. The cost of ethylene - based PVC rises, and the export support remains. Although there is pressure from the cancellation of March PVC warehouse receipts, the social inventory pressure is relieved to some extent. The market sentiment is greatly affected by the US - Iran war, and multiple factors need to be tracked [3]. - For caustic soda, the international geopolitical conflict causes overseas chlor - alkali plants to have a passive load - reduction expectation, driving up the export inquiry and price of domestic chlor - alkali products. The 50% caustic soda price has loosened, and the 32% caustic soda price has followed the increase. The supply - side operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand - side non - aluminum industry has seen an increase in rigid demand procurement. The caustic soda market is affected by the news of the easing of geopolitical conflicts, and the actual execution of export orders and the price trend of 32% caustic soda need to be focused on [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5,551 yuan/ton (-64), the East China basis is -111 yuan/ton (+54), and the South China basis is 19 yuan/ton (+64) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,440 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,570 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 3,165 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 275 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -35 yuan/ton (-228), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -778 yuan/ton (-344), and the PVC export profit is 139.5 US dollars/ton (+7.6) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - plant PVC inventory is 33.9 million tons (-2.7), the social PVC inventory is 60.0 million tons (-1.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 84.66% (+0.27%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 68.66% (+2.81%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.67% (+1.06%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sale volume of production enterprises is 77.9 million tons (-0.6) [1]. Market Analysis - Supply: Geopolitical conflicts lead to the reduction of overseas cracking units, and the supply of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC is tightened. Some domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply problems, and the expectation of load reduction increases. The calcium carbide - based PVC has improved profits due to price increases, and some loads have been increased [3]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate is gradually recovering, but there is relatively large pressure from the cancellation of March PVC warehouse receipts. The supply contraction, continuous export, and recovery of downstream operations have alleviated the social inventory pressure to some extent, but domestic trade transactions are average [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Oscillation [4] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,353 yuan/ton (-89), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -47 yuan/ton (+92) [1]. - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 738 yuan/ton (+1), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1,400 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,302 yuan/ton (+3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 870.3 yuan/ton (+83.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 419.29 yuan/ton (+3.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,918.03 yuan/ton (+50.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 52.00 million tons (+2.00), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.40 million tons (-0.20), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.60% (+0.70%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operating rate is 82.58% (+0.10%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 52.57% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.36% (+0.39%) [2]. Market Analysis - Supply: The operating rate has slightly increased. Due to the rising caustic soda price, the willingness of enterprises to carry out maintenance in March has decreased [3]. - Demand: The non - aluminum industry's operating rate has recovered, and rigid demand procurement has increased, but the increase is limited. The alumina operating rate has slightly increased, and the procurement price of 32% caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been raised twice this week [3]. - Market performance: The internal trade follow - up is limited, and caustic soda has accumulated inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu. The price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has increased, while the cost support has weakened. The caustic soda futures market is affected by the news of the easing of geopolitical conflicts, and the price fluctuation will intensify in April [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Oscillation [5] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5] - Inter - variety: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PVC: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, which affects the prices of oil and chemical products [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations, and their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated below the 5 - day moving average. The circulation volume in the northern mainstream propylene market increased temporarily, and downstream enterprises' resistance to receiving goods remained unchanged, with a cautious trading atmosphere [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures showed a relatively strong consolidation. For polyethylene, the cost was supported by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the supply side provided support. The demand side was in the spring plowing season, but the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited. For polypropylene, the upstream refineries' ex - factory prices remained high, the middlemen actively sold goods, but the high - price transaction pressure was prominent, and the downstream's enthusiasm and willingness to start work were weak [2] Polyester - Affected by the situation between the US and Iran, oil prices were strong, and PX and PTA prices fluctuated. The overall single - side trend was dominated by energy and closely related to the Middle East situation. PTA was dragged down by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [3] - Ethylene glycol's load decreased slightly, the port inventory increased, and the downstream recovery was slow. There was an expectation of tight supply due to the un - recovered external supply of Middle East energy chemical products [3] - Short fiber's load increased weekly, the downstream weaving's load increase slowed down, and new orders were not negotiated smoothly. The market was mainly affected by the Middle East situation and followed the raw material fluctuations [3] - Bottle chip's efficiency was good, the load increased significantly last week, the price was under pressure, and the monthly spread continued to weaken. The load decreased slightly in the new period [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene futures contract rose significantly. The domestic pure benzene's starting load decreased, downstream consumption increased, and the port inventory continued to decrease. The import volume was expected to decrease, and the East China port was expected to continue destocking [5] - The styrene futures contract rose significantly. The sharp rise in the pure benzene price provided strong support from the cost side. The production of styrene might increase slightly, the inventory might continue to decline, and the demand side was expected to weaken slowly [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures rose strongly. The import volume decreased, the MTO start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased, and the East China port continued to destock. The domestic methanol plant's start - up increased, the profit of inland olefin enterprises continued to rise, and the downstream plant's start - up load increased. The supply - demand situation was expected to be strong [6] - The urea futures continued to consolidate at a high level. The domestic output decreased slightly, the agricultural fertilizer demand declined, the start - up of industrial compound fertilizer and melamine plants increased, and the urea production enterprises continued to destock. The urea market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The overall supply increased slightly, the downstream procurement was poor, the inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased seasonally but was still at a relatively low level compared with history. The export was expected to improve from March to April [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. The liquid caustic soda inventory increased, the chlor - alkali profit continued to rise, the industry's capacity utilization rate increased, the high - strength caustic soda had good support from export orders, and the downstream alumina production was stable, but the downstream traders' enthusiasm for purchasing decreased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated. The industry inventory increased, the maintenance increased this week, the start - up and weekly production decreased, the rigid demand for float glass was stable, the photovoltaic glass had a serious oversupply, and there was a trend of cold repair and production reduction, which was expected to drag down the demand for soda ash [8] - Glass fluctuated. The industry continued to destock, but the intensity slowed down, the inventory pressure in the middle and upper reaches was large, and the downstream was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The production capacity fluctuated slightly, and the glass futures price was expected to fluctuate widely within a range [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the trading mainline of the caustic soda market switched, and the price shifted from "low - level repair" to "central - level upward movement", which was the result of the superposition of sentiment, flow, and marginal fundamental repair [2][3] - In April, the caustic soda price is more likely to operate in a "high - level volatile and strong" manner rather than a "unilateral continuous short - squeeze". The price center is expected to rise compared with February, but further upward movement requires continuous inventory decline and actual export orders [17][18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In March, the trading mainline of the caustic soda market changed. In February, the core contradiction was high - start, high - inventory, and unconfirmed post - holiday demand recovery, with prices showing low - level stability and basis repair. In March, geopolitical disturbances, improved foreign inquiries, marginal decline in domestic factory inventories, and stable alumina demand drove the price to move upward [2][3] - From late February to March 26, the national 32% liquid caustic soda price rose from 634 yuan/ton to 728 yuan/ton, a 15% increase. The caustic soda price increase was in the context of the overall valuation increase of the energy and petrochemical chain [3] - The caustic soda main contract rose from 2125 yuan/ton at the end of February to 2442 yuan/ton on March 9 and 2547 yuan/ton on March 16, then fluctuated, with a maximum of 2675 yuan/ton, and closed at around 2500 yuan/ton on March 26. The weekly average price of Shandong 32% caustic soda was 716 yuan/ton, a 14% increase from the previous month [4] - The core of the trading logic in March was the superposition of "export expectation + energy cost expectation + high - level sentiment". The continuation of the market depends on export order fulfillment, inventory decline, and stable alumina procurement [4] - In early March, the main driver was external shocks. After the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the supply expectations of global natural gas and olefin chains tightened, and the export expectation of high - concentration caustic soda increased [5] - After mid - March, the market transitioned from "pure expectation - driven" to "real - data verification". Whether the price could stabilize depended on factors such as whether factory inventories peaked and declined, whether alumina procurement remained stable, and whether the spot market could follow the upward movement of the futures [6] 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - The high - start pattern continued in March, and the supply pressure was marginally relieved. The industry average start - up rate remained at a high level, with about 86.1% in February, around 86.4% in the first week of March, and 84.6% this week. The national chlor - alkali load is expected to recover to around 85% next week [8] - The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased from 50.96 million tons at the end of February to 55.57 million tons in the first week of March and 52.54 million tons this week, a 4.93% increase month - on - month. The de - stocking needs to be verified [8] - In April, the focus of the market on supply is whether high - start can coexist with de - stocking [9] 3.2.2 Demand - Alumina is the core of total demand, and non - aluminum demand determines marginal elasticity. In March, the alumina start - up rate remained at around 81.8%, and non - aluminum downstream industries improved slightly compared with February, but the overall increase was limited [10] - The key to whether the caustic soda price has continuous support lies in the stability of the alumina demand base and whether non - aluminum demand repair can drive de - stocking [10] 3.2.3 Inventory and Flow - The core of the inventory logic in March was that the inventory direction changed from "continuous accumulation" to "loosening at a high level". The inventory decreased after rising in March, indicating an improvement in the spot acceptance ability [11] - The linkage of inventory, export inquiries, and basis is the key to track. For April, the inventory path is the first indicator to judge the market nature [11] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - The core cost components are electricity (55% - 65% of the total cost, with a power consumption of 2900 - 3100 degrees per ton of caustic soda), raw salt (10% - 15%), and processing and others (about 20%) [12] - In March, the industrial electricity price in main production areas such as Shandong decreased, and the self - supplied power in the northwest had significant advantages. The raw salt price was stable with a slight increase. The full cost in Shandong was about 1800 - 2050 yuan/ton, and the marginal cost was 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton, forming a price bottom [13] - There were regional differences in profits. The profit of self - supplied power + integration in the northwest was 2140 yuan/ton, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 550 yuan/ton, and the profit of single caustic soda enterprises was only 100 - 500 yuan/ton. The increase in liquid chlorine price improved the profit, but the weakening of PVC dragged down the comprehensive profit [13] 3.3 Foreign Trade and International Pricing - In March, the marginal impact of external factors on caustic soda increased. The FOB export inquiry price of caustic soda in East China rose to 340 - 450 US dollars/ton on March 12, higher than the previous transaction range of Northeast Asian liquid caustic soda [16] - The export logic is in the stage of "enhanced expectation, to be tracked for fulfillment". In April, in addition to external events, it is necessary to track whether the foreign quotation remains strong and whether the domestic spot pressure is reduced due to export diversion [16] 3.4 March Outlook and Futures Strategy - In April, caustic soda is more likely to operate in a "high - level volatile and strong" manner. The supporting factors include the increase in the official monitoring price of 32% liquid caustic soda, the marginal decline of factory inventory after mid - March, stable alumina demand, and strong export inquiries [17] - The suppressing factors include the high - start pattern of the industry, high absolute inventory level, and the high proportion of sentiment and geopolitical factors in the March price increase [18] - Key variables to track include the prices of 32%/50% liquid caustic soda, the path of sample factory inventory, the operating load of alumina, and the changes in FOB export inquiries in East China. Industrial customers are more suitable for rolling hedging [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, the international geopolitical conflict shows signs of easing, causing the futures market to decline. However, the supply of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC is tightening overseas, leading to an improved export outlook and rising export prices. In China, some ethylene - based PVC enterprises also face raw material supply constraints. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC has improved, leading to an increase in some production loads. Although there is significant supply pressure from the cancellation of warehouse receipts in March, factors such as cost - side pressure, supply contraction, continuous exports, and the recovery of downstream production have alleviated the social inventory pressure to some extent. The market sentiment is strongly influenced by the US - Iran conflict, and future trends need to be closely monitored [3]. - For caustic soda, the ongoing international geopolitical conflict has led to an expected passive reduction in the production of overseas chlor - alkali plants. This has increased domestic export inquiries and significantly raised export quotes. The reduction in production of domestic ethylene - based PVC enterprises has increased the market's expectation of reduced production of integrated caustic soda. The price of 50% caustic soda has risen rapidly, and the price of 32% caustic soda has followed suit. The production rate has slightly increased, and the demand from non - aluminum industries has increased. The production of alumina has slightly recovered, and major alumina manufacturers in Shandong have raised the purchase price of 32% caustic soda. There is inventory accumulation in Shandong and Jiangsu. The price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has increased. The caustic soda futures market is affected by the news of the easing geopolitical conflict, and future trends need to be closely monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5,650 yuan/ton (- 53), the East China basis is - 150 yuan/ton (- 47), and the South China basis is 0 yuan/ton (+3) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,500 yuan/ton (- 100), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5,650 yuan/ton (- 50) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 3,165 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 327 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is - 35 yuan/ton (- 228), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 778 yuan/ton (- 344), and the PVC export profit is 119.3 US dollars/ton (- 33.7) [1]. - PVC inventory and production rate: The in - plant inventory of PVC is 33.9 million tons (- 2.7), the social inventory of PVC is 60.0 million tons (- 1.0), the production rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 84.39% (+2.50%), the production rate of ethylene - based PVC is 65.85% (- 5.15%), and the overall PVC production rate is 78.61% (+0.12%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.9 million tons (- 0.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,509 yuan/ton (+7), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 234 yuan/ton (- 7) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 728 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1,400 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,271 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 759.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 438.04 yuan/ton (- 40.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,990.83 yuan/ton (- 200.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and production rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda plants is 52.00 million tons (+2.00), the inventory of flake caustic soda plants is 2.40 million tons (- 0.20), and the production rate of caustic soda is 84.60% (+0.70%) [2]. - Downstream production rate of caustic soda: The production rate of alumina is 82.48% (- 0.24%), the production rate of the printing and dyeing industry in East China is 52.57% (+0.00%), and the production rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.36% (+0.39%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The international geopolitical conflict has a significant impact on the PVC market. Although the conflict shows signs of easing, the supply of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC overseas is tightening, and the export outlook has improved. In China, some ethylene - based PVC enterprises face raw material supply problems, while the calcium carbide - based PVC has seen improved profits and increased production loads. The downstream production is gradually recovering, but the cancellation of warehouse receipts in March will bring significant supply pressure. The cost - side pressure, supply contraction, continuous exports, and the recovery of downstream production have alleviated the social inventory pressure to some extent [3]. Caustic Soda - The international geopolitical conflict has led to an expected reduction in the production of overseas chlor - alkali plants, increasing domestic export inquiries and quotes. The reduction in production of domestic ethylene - based PVC enterprises has increased the expectation of reduced production of integrated caustic soda. The price of 50% caustic soda has risen rapidly, and the price of 32% caustic soda has followed suit. The production rate has slightly increased, and the demand from non - aluminum industries has increased. The production of alumina has slightly recovered, and major alumina manufacturers in Shandong have raised the purchase price of 32% caustic soda. There is inventory accumulation in Shandong and Jiangsu. The price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has increased [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [5]

1. Report Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PX: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market is significantly affected by the Middle East situation, especially the oil price fluctuations [2][3][4][5][6][7] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and the market sentiment is complex [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures closed down. International oil price decline dragged down market sentiment, and downstream观望 increased [2] - For polyethylene, domestic production reduction devices increased, but cost support weakened due to the easing of the Middle East situation [2] - For polypropylene, high - price transactions faced pressure, and downstream enterprises' profit was squeezed, with weak order - taking and low willingness to start work [2] 3.2 Polyester - Affected by the US - Iran situation, PX and PTA prices declined, and the industry's efficiency decreased. The load of both decreased, and the downstream consumption followed up slowly [3] - The load of ethylene glycol decreased, and the price and monthly spread declined due to the expected decline in oil prices [3] - The load of short - fiber decreased slightly, and the downstream weaving load increase slowed down, mainly digesting raw materials [3] - The efficiency of bottle chips improved, the weekly load increased significantly, but the price was under pressure, and the monthly spread continued to weaken [3] 3.3 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The Middle East situation cooled slightly, and the geopolitical risk premium was withdrawn. The domestic pure benzene start - up load decreased, and the inventory decreased [4] - The main contract of styrene futures closed down, but the overall situation was relatively strong and volatile [4] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market adjusted due to the expected geopolitical easing. The import volume decreased, and the inventory in the East China port continued to decline [5] - The spot price of Shandong urea was stable with a slight increase. The domestic device start - up decreased slightly, and the inventory of urea production enterprises continued to decline [5] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell from high levels due to the expected easing of the geopolitical situation. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased significantly [6] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. The inventory continued to decline, and the export inquiry was good [6] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated within the day. The industry inventory continued to decline but still faced pressure. The supply continued to expand [7] - Glass fluctuated weakly within the day. The industry continued to destock, but the intensity slowed down. The inventory pressure of the middle and upper reaches was relatively large [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For caustic soda, on March 24, the early - morning caustic soda market followed the chemical commodities to rise and then fall. The spot price continued to increase, with the liquid caustic soda price in Shandong region being adjusted upwards. Although the demand for low - concentration caustic soda has no obvious increase, some caustic soda plants have low inventory, and with the high futures price, the market is bullish. High - concentration caustic soda is strong in the short - term supported by export orders. This week, the supply of caustic soda decreased further, the number of maintenance enterprises increased, the operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises decreased, the profit increased significantly compared with the previous period, the price of liquid chlorine increased simultaneously, and the export is expected to rise, which may drive up the caustic soda price. The operating rate of downstream alumina manufacturers has gradually increased, non - aluminum demand has improved, and downstream trading volume has increased. Affected by the Middle East conflict, the price of energy and chemical commodities fluctuated sharply, causing the caustic soda futures to rise and fall greatly. Although the fundamentals of caustic soda have improved marginally, the overall pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. With the easing of the Middle East situation recently, the futures price has fallen [1]. - For PVC, on March 24, the PVC futures market fluctuated weakly, and the spot market price retreated weakly from a high level. The market sentiment fluctuated with crude oil. The domestic market shows a polarized trend. The calcium carbide - based PVC has insufficient motivation to chase the price in the short - term due to sufficient supply, while the ethylene - based PVC keeps rising under the continuous cost push. In the short - term, the supply of raw materials such as ethylene in the region is difficult to solve, the high cost of ethylene - based PVC and the Asian - region production cut continue to be beneficial. The calcium carbide - based PVC has foreign trade demand in the long - term. The overall increase in energy prices has raised the cost of the chemical industry, and bulk commodities face the pressure of continued price increases. Although the supply - demand fundamentals of PVC are weak, there is still a passive upward trend in the general environment, and the overall market price center remains in a situation where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall. Attention should be paid to the impact of regional trends on energy and other raw materials [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures - **Price Changes**: The price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 1843.8, while the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda increased by 60.0 to 2800.0, with a growth rate of 2.2%. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 210.0 to 5790.0, a decline of 3.5%. The price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained at 7400.0. SHSROS decreased by 77.0 to 2557.0, a decline of 2.9%. 2H2609 decreased by 60.0 to 2605.0, a decline of 2.3%. SH base difference increased by 77.0 to - 713.3, an increase of 9.7%. SH2605 - 2609 decreased by 17.0 to - 48.0, a decline of 54.8%. V2605 decreased by 398.0 to 5853.0, a decline of 6.4%. V2609 decreased by 347.0 to 5940.0, a decline of 5.5%. V base difference increased by 137.0 to - 150.0, an increase of 47.7%. V2605 - V2609 decreased by 51.0 to - 87.0, a decline of 141.7% [1]. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits - **Price Changes**: The FOB price at East China ports increased by 55.0 to 400.0 US dollars per ton, a growth rate of 15.9%. The export profit increased by 98.7 to 176.4 yuan per ton, a growth rate of 127.2% [1]. PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits - **Price Changes**: CFR Southeast Asia increased by 210.0 to 1050.0, a growth rate of 25.0%. CFRED India increased by 110.0 to 1050.0 US dollars per ton, a growth rate of 11.7%. FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 50.0 to 900.0, a growth rate of 5.9%. The export profit decreased by 34.9 to 1060.7 yuan per ton, a decline of 3.4% [1]. Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rate & Industry Profits - **Operating Rate Changes**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 to 83.9%, a decline of 1.6%. The total operating rate of PVC decreased by 1.2 to 80.1%, a decline of 1.5%. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 140.0 to 86.0 yuan per ton, a decline of 61.9%. The profit of northwest integrated production increased by 150.0 to 777.0 yuan per ton, a growth rate of 23.9% [1]. Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rate - **Operating Rate Changes**: The operating rate of the alumina industry decreased by 0.2 to 82.5%, a decline of 0.3%. The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased by 1.2 to 89.0%, a decline of 1.3%. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry increased by 2.4 to 52.6%, a growth rate of 4.8% [1]. Demand: PVC Downstream Product Operating Rate - **Operating Rate Changes**: The operating rate of Longzhong sample pipe production increased by 1.2 to 39.2%, a growth rate of 3.2%. The operating rate of Longzhong sample profile production increased by 4.4 to 34.4%, a growth rate of 14.5%. The pre - sales volume of Longzhong sample PVC decreased by 30.8 to 78.4 million tons, a decline of 28.2% [1]. Chlor - Alkali Inventory: Social Inventory & Factory Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The factory inventory of caustic soda decreased by 3.0 to 50.0, a decline of 5.7%. The upstream factory inventory of PVC decreased by 1.2 to 36.5 million tons, a decline of 3.1%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.2 to 36.5, a decline of 3.1% [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - PVC: Since April 1st, the export tax rebate for PVC has been cancelled. Due to the ongoing international geopolitical conflicts, overseas cracking units have reduced their operations, tightening the supply of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC. The export outlook has improved, and export prices have risen significantly. Although the spot supply pressure from the cancellation of warehouse receipts in March is large, the cost - side pressure is still being transmitted, and the social inventory pressure has been somewhat relieved. The market sentiment is strong, and future trends need to focus on geopolitical changes, export order execution, downstream receiving rhythms, and device maintenance dynamics [3]. - Caustic Soda: Affected by international geopolitical conflicts, overseas chlor - alkali units may be forced to reduce their operations. This has led to an increase in export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products and a significant increase in export quotes. The price of 50% caustic soda has strengthened rapidly, and the price of 32% caustic soda has followed suit. The current caustic soda price is rising, and the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu is decreasing. The overall sentiment in the caustic soda market is strong, and future trends need to focus on the actual execution of export orders and the price trend of 32% caustic soda [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 6,251 yuan/ton (+376). The East China basis is - 271 yuan/ton (- 46), and the South China basis is - 121 yuan/ton (- 46) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The quotation of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China is 5,980 yuan/ton (+330), and in South China is 6,130 yuan/ton (+330) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The price of semi - coke is 685 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 3,075 yuan/ton (+15), the calcium carbide profit is 237 yuan/ton (+15), the production gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC is 193 yuan/ton (- 73), the production gross profit of ethylene - based PVC is - 433 yuan/ton (- 198), and the PVC export profit is 162.6 US dollars/ton (+6.4) [1]. - **PVC Inventory and Operation**: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 36.5 tons (- 1.2), the social inventory of PVC is 61.1 tons (- 2.1), the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 84.39% (+2.50%), the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 65.85% (- 5.15%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.61% (+0.12%) [1]. - **Downstream Order Situation**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 78.4 tons (- 30.8) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,634 yuan/ton (+90), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 422 yuan/ton (- 31) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 708 yuan/ton (+19), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1,370 yuan/ton (+70) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,204 yuan/ton (+59), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 689.3 yuan/ton (+139.4), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 934.29 yuan/ton (+378.38), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 2,240.33 yuan/ton (+100.00) [2]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Operation**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 50.00 tons (- 3.00), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.60 tons (- 0.30), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 83.90% (- 1.40%) [2]. - **Caustic Soda Downstream Operation**: The operation rate of alumina is 82.48% (- 0.24%), the operation rate of dyeing in East China is 52.57% (+2.42%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.97% (- 1.17%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - **Supply**: Overseas ethylene - based PVC units have reduced their operations, and domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply limitations. Calcium carbide - based PVC has increased its load due to improved profits [3]. - **Demand**: Downstream operations are gradually recovering. Although the spot supply pressure from the cancellation of warehouse receipts in March is large, the social inventory pressure has been somewhat relieved [3]. - **Cost**: Due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost of ethylene - based raw materials has increased, and the cost - side pressure is still being transmitted [3]. Caustic Soda - **Supply**: The operation rate has decreased slightly. The willingness of enterprises to conduct maintenance in March has decreased due to rising prices [3]. - **Demand**: The operation of non - aluminum industries has recovered, with an increase in rigid demand procurement. The operation of alumina has decreased slightly, but the production expectation in Guangxi has improved [3]. - **Profit**: The price of liquid chlorine has risen, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has increased, while the cost support has weakened [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - sided**: Oscillation [4] - **Inter - period**: Wait - and - see [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4] Caustic Soda - **Single - sided**: Oscillation [5] - **Inter - period**: Wait - and - see [5] - **Inter - variety**: None [5]