Economic Overview - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from negative to positive growth, with food prices showing a reduced decline and non-food prices slightly rising [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with a widening decline, indicating that living material prices performed better than production material prices [1] - The average CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, while the average PPI was -2.9%, reflecting a low overall price level in the domestic market [1] External Factors - International commodity prices have decreased, creating downward pressure on domestic prices, particularly affecting industries related to oil and gas, with oil and gas extraction prices down by 12.6% year-on-year and fuel prices down by 10.4% [1] - The rise of anti-globalization sentiments and "reciprocal tariffs" from the U.S. has led to increased trade barriers, impacting China's export industries and potentially leading to further price declines in related sectors [2] Internal Factors - The acceleration of energy structure transformation and the increase in green energy have contributed to lower energy prices, with coal mining and washing prices dropping by 21.8% year-on-year due to reduced demand for thermal power [2] - Intense market competition in certain industries, particularly in manufacturing, has led to price suppression, with many companies engaging in price wars due to product homogeneity [3] Structural Price Changes - Policies aimed at reducing "involution competition" have helped alleviate overcapacity in certain sectors, leading to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as automotive manufacturing and lithium battery production [3] - Consumption-boosting policies have positively impacted certain consumer goods sectors, resulting in price increases for items like arts and crafts, sports goods, and smart consumer products [4] - High-tech industries related to smart manufacturing and digital economy are experiencing rapid growth, with product prices showing a year-on-year increase, indicating a promising future for economic transformation [5]

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 6月CPI同比0.1%，高于前值的-0.1%。PPI同比-3.6%，低于前值的-3.3%。按照CPI、PPI分别 60%、40%粗略模拟的平减指数为-1.38%，持平于5月，继续处于2024年2月以来低点（图1）。 第二， CPI数据符合预期，在6月底周报中我们根据高频数据测算CPI同比0.14%；PPI同比则明显低于我们 当时测算的-3.0%的预期。6月PPI有基数优势，翘尾回升0.2%；同比却较高频数据继续下探，背后可能一是 高频数据对统计数据的表征有偏差；二是有高频数据不易捕捉的中游和下游行业价格弱势。 第三， 从数据来看确实如此，6月PPI煤炭加工价格环比-5.5%、煤炭开采和洗选业价格环比-3.4%、黑色金 属冶炼和压延加工业价格环比-1.8%，均弱于高频数据的焦煤、动力煤、螺纹钢价格表现，原因可能是煤价 是最后一周反弹（图2），而统计采样前三周更为关键；同时钢铁现货价格弱于期货也导致高频数据存在一定 偏差。 第四， 同时中下游制造行业也确实有一些价格异动，PPI耐用消费品分项环比从0.1%回落至-0.1%，其中计 算机通信 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, increasing by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in various industrial sectors [1][4] Group 2 - The decrease in PPI is attributed to seasonal price declines in raw materials, increased green energy production leading to lower energy prices, and downward pressure on prices in export-oriented industries due to a slowing global trade environment [4][5] - The cumulative CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, indicating weak domestic price levels and insufficient consumer demand, which provides ample policy space for further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus [3][5] - The decline in industrial prices is exacerbated by overcapacity in several sectors, prompting discussions on capacity reduction as part of a new round of supply-side reforms [5]

来源： 国家统计局官网 2025 年 6 月份 CPI 同比由降转涨 核心 CPI 继续回升 ——国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读 2025 年 6 月份 CPI 和 PPI 数据 6 月份，扩内需、促消费政策持续显效，居民消费价格指数（ CPI ）同比由上月下降转为上 涨 0.1% ；环比下降 0.1% ，降幅比上月收窄 0.1 个百分点；扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 同比继续回升，上涨 0.7% 。工业生产者出厂价格指数（ PPI ）环比下降 0.4% ，降幅 与上月相同，同比下降 3.6% ，降幅比上月扩大 0.3 个百分点。 一、 CPI 同比由降转涨，核心 CPI 继续回升 CPI 同比上涨 0.1% ，为连续下降 4 个月后转涨。 CPI 由降转涨主要受工业消费品价格有所 回升影响。 工业消费品价格同比降幅由上月的 1.0% 收窄至 0.5% ，对 CPI 同比的下拉影 响比上月减少约 0.18 个百分点。其中，油价变动影响能源价格降幅比上月收窄 1.0 个百分 点，对 CPI 同比的下拉影响比上月减少约 0.08 个百分点；受国际大宗商品价格变动影响， 金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别上涨 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-08 市场稍显谨慎，黑色震荡偏弱 钢材：宏观情绪放缓，钢价震荡下行 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3061元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3191元/吨。现货方面，根据钢银数据显示，昨日建 材全国城市库存375.07万吨，环比增长1.29%；热卷全国城市库存174.22万吨，环比增长1.87%。昨日，全国建材成 交9.6万吨。 综合来看：建材进入消费淡季，建材产量小幅回升，库存维持低位；板材产量环比小幅回升，整体利润尚可，目 前板材产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退坡后影响板材消费，但是当前出口仍保持高位。中央财 经委开会讨论治理"无序竞争"和"落后产能有序退出"，市场情绪得到提振，但由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季 弱需求将持续压制钢材价格。 策略 铁矿：全球发运下滑，矿价震荡走弱 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅走弱。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于731元/吨，跌幅0.68%。现 货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳，贸易商报价积极性一般，市场交投情绪偏冷清，钢厂采购多 以刚需为主。供给方面，本期全球铁矿石发运大幅回落，全球发运总量 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-07-08 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《内外利好共振，成长风格迎来布局 窗口》 - 2025.07.02 宏观研究 破内卷困局，离不开扩内需支撑 核心观点 中央持续强化"反内卷"政策导向，旨在解决名义经济增速低迷和 PPI 持续负增长问题，重点整治低价无序竞争和产能过剩，同时优化 资源配置效率，加速推动产业结构调整，夯实高质量发展基础。 从官方通报"内卷式"竞争行业，结合产能利用率和 PPI 同比增 速来看，煤炭开采和洗选业、化学原料及化学制品、非金属矿物质品、 有色金属冶炼及压延加工业、专用设备、电气机械和器材、通用设备、 汽车、医药或存在"内卷式"竞争问题，预计接下来"反内卷"或将 针对这些重点行业进行展开。 借鉴 2016 年供给侧改革经验，"反内卷"政策推进，或采取"行 政强制+市场调节+技术创新"组合拳。根据 2016 年供给侧结构 ...

2025年5月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降3.3%，环比下降0.4%；工业生产者购进价格同比下降 3.6%，环比下降0.6%。1—5月平均，工业生产者出厂价格和购进价格比上年同期均下降2.6%。 一、工业生产者价格同比变动情况 5月份，工业生产者出厂价格中，生产资料价格下降4.0%，影响工业生产者出厂价格总水平下降约2.98 个百分点。其中，采掘工业价格下降11.9%，原材料工业价格下降5.4%，加工工业价格下降2.8%。生活 资料价格下降1.4%，影响工业生产者出厂价格总水平下降约0.36个百分点。其中，食品价格下降1.4%， 衣着价格持平，一般日用品价格上涨0.6%，耐用消费品价格下降3.3%。 工业生产者购进价格中，燃料动力类价格下降9.8%，黑色金属材料类价格下降7.3%，化工原料类价格 下降5.4%，农副产品类价格下降2.6%，纺织原料类价格下降2.5%，建筑材料及非金属类价格下降 1.1%；有色金属材料及电线类价格上涨4.6%。 二、工业生产者价格环比变动情况 5月份，工业生产者出厂价格中，生产资料价格下降0.6%，影响工业生产者出厂价格总水平下降约0.44 个百分点。其中，采掘工业价格下降 ...

Core Insights - In the first five months of the year, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 603.4 billion yuan compared to the previous four months, but saw a year-on-year decline of 1.1% due to insufficient effective demand, falling industrial product prices, and short-term fluctuations [1][3] - The cumulative profit of large-scale industrial enterprises showed a recovery trend, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in January-March and 1.4% in April [3] - The overall revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 54.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while operating costs rose by 3% to 46.88 trillion yuan, resulting in a profit margin of 4.97%, down by 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [4] Profit Composition - The profit composition indicates that investment income and other short-term factors from the previous year had a high base, which dragged down the profit growth rate by 1.7 percentage points [1] - The gross profit of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3 percentage point increase in overall profits [4] Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, the mining industry saw a profit decline of 29% to 358.04 billion yuan, while the manufacturing sector's profits increased by 5.4% to 20,201.4 billion yuan, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 3.7% to 3,422.5 billion yuan [3][5] - Notably, the agricultural and food processing industry experienced a profit increase of 38.2%, while the automotive manufacturing sector faced a significant decline of 11.9% [5] Equipment Manufacturing - The equipment manufacturing sector demonstrated strong performance, with profits increasing by 7.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall profit growth of large-scale industries [5] - Among the eight industries within equipment manufacturing, seven reported profit growth, with electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment showing double-digit growth rates [5] High-Quality Development - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries experienced a remarkable profit increase of 56% due to rapid development in the "three aviation" sectors [6] - Policies promoting equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement have positively impacted profits in related sectors, with significant growth in smart consumer devices and kitchen appliances [6] Future Outlook - The focus for the next phase will be on implementing proactive macro policies to strengthen domestic circulation, enhance innovation, and promote high-quality industrial development, laying a solid foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprise profits [6]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 二手房价环比跌幅扩大 新房销售承压 20250622 研究助理：石舒宇 从业资格号：F03117664 0769-22116880 作者：黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 周度观点 • 5月份，四代住房标准令各线城市二手房房价环比降幅均有所扩大，同比降幅继续收窄；一线、二线新房房价环比转降。 • 一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降1.7%，降幅比上月收窄0.4个百分点。其中，上海上涨5.9%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降4.3%、 5.8%和2.6%。二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比分别下降3.5%和4.9%，降幅分别收窄0.4个和0.5个百分点。 • 一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月持平转为下降0.2%。其中，上海环比上涨0.7%（前值0.5%），北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.4%、 0.8%和0.4%。二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月持平转为下降0.2%。三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%， ...

1—5月份，辽宁省固定资产投资同比增长0.1%。从三次产业看，第一产业投资同比增长16.3%，第二产 业投资同比增长1.7%，第三产业投资同比下降2.1%。分领域看，基础设施投资同比增长1.5%，制造业 投资同比增长12.8%。建设项目8593个，同比减少885个，下降9.3%；完成投资额同比增长6.5%。其 中，亿元以上建设项目3272个，减少199个，同比下降5.7%；完成投资额同比增长11.0%。 1—5月份，辽宁省实现社会消费品零售总额4191.3亿元，同比增长6.4%。其中，辽宁省限额以上消费品 零售额1889.4亿元，同比增长9.7%。从限额以上单位商品零售类别看，零售额同比增长的有：家用电器 和音像器材类（91.2%）、家具类（77.0%）、建筑及装潢材料类（53.0%）、通讯器材类（43.9%）、 文化办公用品类（35.0%）、粮油食品类（20.3%）、日用品类（13.3%）、体育娱乐用品类（9.9%）、 烟酒类（9.4%）、化妆品类（5.8%）、金银珠宝类（4.7%）、汽车类（4.4%）和服装鞋帽针纺织品类 （0.4%）；同比下降的有：石油及制品类（-1.9%）、饮料类（-1.2%）和中西药 ...