（原标题：高市错误言论使日经济雪上加霜，鼓吹"日本人优先"是南辕北辙） 高市早苗此前还提出"日本人优先"的口号，通过严控外国人政策以图获取民众的支持。但实际上，不少 日本经济学家认为，由于现在的在日外国人相对"年轻"，外籍居民增加将改善日本的财政状况，而且外 国劳动力与日本人在就业方面的竞争有限。 缺少中国游客导致旅游业受挫、日本电影出口也在中国市场面临困境，这些都说明日本经济较高的对外 依赖度。高市早苗一系列错误言论和排外政策，又将日本经济引向何方？ 高市早苗发表涉台严重错误言论后，中方提出严正交涉和强烈抗议，与此同时，相关部门也发出避免前 往日本旅游和留学预警。由此出现了一波中国赴日旅游团的"退单潮"。 （资料图） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 出口连续4个月萎缩、食品涨价持续，GDP负增长……日本经济再度亮起红灯。但日本首相高市早苗上 台后并没有专注于恢复经济，而是公开发表涉台错误言论，将日本经济拖入更深的危机之中。 据新华社报道，当地时间11月21日晚，数百名日本民众在位于东京的首相官邸前举行集会，抗议高市早 苗近日在日本国会发表的涉台错误言论，要求其撤回相关表态并作出解释和道歉。 受到高市早 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan have sparked widespread criticism and concern, as they disregard legal and historical facts, potentially jeopardizing regional stability and Japan's own interests [1][3]. Group 1: Political Context - Takaichi's statements violate the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan, fundamentally damaging the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations [3][11]. - The four political documents include the 1972 Japan-China Joint Communiqué, which acknowledges Taiwan as an inseparable part of China, and the 1978 Treaty of Peace and Friendship [3][5][11]. Group 2: Domestic and International Reactions - Takaichi's comments have drawn significant criticism domestically and internationally, with calls for her to resign from various Japanese political figures and public protests [16][17]. - The remarks have led to a decline in Japan's tourism and consumer stocks, as investors fear deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations will reduce the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan [17][20]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The Tokyo stock market has seen declines in tourism-related stocks due to concerns over reduced Chinese tourist numbers, with a reported 1.8% annual decline in Japan's GDP for the third quarter [17][18]. - Chinese tourists accounted for 29.4% of all visitors to Japan in the first nine months of 2025, making their potential absence a significant economic concern [20]. - Takaichi's statements have also negatively impacted the release and box office performance of Japanese films in China, with several films being postponed and existing releases experiencing a sharp decline in ticket sales [22][24].

Group 1 - The issuance scale of financial bonds by commercial banks reached 2.95 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.79% [1] - The issuance of tier-2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds totaled approximately 1.38 trillion yuan, becoming the main types of bonds issued [1] - In October, the establishment scale of standard trust products increased by 12.86% month-on-month, despite a decrease in the number of products established [1] Group 2 - The storage industry is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by the rapid development of AI technology, with SanDisk raising flash memory contract prices by 50% [2] - The demand for high-end storage products is surging due to the requirements of AI servers and terminal products for storage speed, capacity, and power consumption [2] - In Q3 2025, China's tablet market shipped 8.49 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, with the consumer market growing by 12.3% [2] Group 3 - The Beidou system's large-scale applications are entering a critical stage of marketization, industrialization, and internationalization, with a focus on five key application areas [3] - The integration of Beidou technology with mobile communication, inertial navigation, and high-precision vision is being promoted to enhance its application in smart cities and other sectors [3] Group 4 - The Northeast region is preparing for a new wave of ice and snow tourism, leveraging its unique resources and diverse activities to attract more visitors [4] - The film market in 2025 has reached a total box office of 45.018 billion yuan, with expectations to surpass 50 billion yuan with upcoming major releases [4] Group 5 - China's offshore wind power capacity reached 44.61 million kilowatts in the first three quarters of 2025, maintaining its position as the world's largest [5] - Samsung is set to launch the Galaxy S26 series, featuring the world's first 2nm mobile chip, marking a significant advancement in the smartphone industry [5] Group 6 - Douyin has initiated a campaign to combat "false low prices" in the sale of Moutai, addressing consumer complaints about misleading marketing practices [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has reported 39 apps, including Changba, for illegally collecting personal information [6] Group 7 - Xibei has closed nearly 10 stores across multiple locations since October, with the closures being part of a unified arrangement [6] - Shanghai Changtan Light Commercial Management Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 2.4 billion yuan, focusing on various management services [7] Group 8 - Shenzhen Conostech completed approximately 200 million USD in C+ round financing, focusing on high-end surgical robots [8] - China Unicom's subsidiary, Zhinet Technology, has restarted its IPO process with guidance from China International Capital Corporation [8] Group 9 - Xinyang Technology announced plans for a share reduction of up to 3% by its shareholder, Spring Hong Investment [9] - Jiangnan Chemical successfully acquired 100% of Chongqing Shun'an Explosive Materials Co., Ltd., enhancing its market presence in Southwest China [10] Group 10 - Kelu Electronics reported an annual production capacity of approximately 10GWh at its Yichun energy storage base and is building a new facility in Indonesia [11] - Cambridge Technology exercised its over-allotment option, increasing its H-share issuance to 77.062 million shares [11] Group 11 - Ruima Precision announced the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary to meet its business development needs [12][13] Group 12 - The US stock market indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.82%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq up 2.27%, driven by strong performances in tech and AI stocks [14]

Group 1 - The State Council has issued 13 targeted policy measures to stimulate private investment and enhance its development [2][4] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have adjusted the management catalog for the export of precursor chemicals to specific countries, adding the US, Mexico, and Canada to the list [2][4] - The eighth China International Import Expo has achieved a record intended transaction amount of $83.49 billion, marking a 4.4% increase from the previous event [2][4] Group 2 - The National Health Commission has announced that the country has entered the flu epidemic season, with flu activity levels significantly rising, particularly in southern regions [6] - In the first three quarters, China's gold production reached 271.782 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%, while gold consumption fell by 7.95% to 682.73 tons [8] - The total box office for films in China has surpassed 45 billion yuan as of November 10, 2025 [9] Group 3 - A trend of bank app shutdowns has emerged, with over 10 small and medium-sized banks discontinuing credit card apps in 2024, and at least 6 more banks following suit in the first 10 months of 2025 [12] - The 2025 Global Computing Conference was held in Shenzhen, focusing on AI opportunities, with predictions indicating AI could drive a 15% increase in global economic growth over the next decade [13] - For the first time in nearly 30 years, global central banks' gold holdings have surpassed US Treasury bonds, with gold prices rising nearly 50% since the beginning of the year [14]

A-shares Market - On October 9, the Shanghai Composite Index opened high and rose, surpassing 3900 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high, with the closing point less than 2% away from the 4000-point mark. Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has only broken through 4000 points twice in a market rally: in May 2007 and April 2015 [2] - Starting from October 9, all stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange will switch to new code 920, affecting trading orders, market inquiries, and business handling for existing stocks [2] - Delixi Holdings announced on the evening of October 8 that its controlling shareholder and actual controller, Shi Weidong, is planning a change in company control. The company's stock will be suspended from trading starting October 9, with an expected suspension period of no more than 2 trading days [2] Financial Management - According to the Ministry of Finance, on October 15, the fifth issue of RMB government bonds for 2025 will be issued in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, with an issuance scale of 11 billion yuan [4] - As of the end of September, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,387 billion USD, an increase of 16.5 billion USD from the end of August, marking a 0.5% rise. The reserves have remained above 3.2 trillion USD for 22 consecutive months [4] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, international gold prices surged, with New York futures gold breaking the 4000 USD per ounce mark for the first time in history, up over 50% year-to-date [4] Banking Sector - Recently, several banks, including China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and others, fully redeemed the "perpetual bonds" issued in 2020, with amounts ranging from several billion to hundreds of billions. The total redemption scale of "perpetual bonds" by banks has exceeded 900 billion yuan this year [5] Other Industries - On October 9, the National Film Administration reported that the total box office for the National Day holiday reached 1.835 billion yuan, with over 50.07 million viewers and an average ticket price of 36.64 yuan. Domestic films accounted for 98.93% of the box office [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued measures to address price disorder and maintain a good market price order [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Taxation Administration released announcements regarding the tax exemption for new energy vehicles for 2026-2027, detailing technical requirements for pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles [6] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the postal and express delivery industry processed a total of 7.231 billion packages, with an average daily processing volume exceeding 900 million [6] - Data shows that during the holiday, the average daily sales revenue of consumer-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in digital products and automotive consumption [6][7] - From October 1 to 8, the total inter-regional population flow reached an estimated 2.432 billion person-times, setting a historical record for the same period [7]

Core Insights - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday saw 888 million domestic trips, an increase of 123 million compared to the 2024 National Day holiday [1] - Total domestic travel expenditure reached 809 billion yuan, up by 108.19 billion yuan from the previous year [1] Group 1: Cultural and Tourism Trends - The "cultural and tourism integration" trend is gaining momentum, with innovative expressions of traditional culture [1] - In Luoyang, a collaborative approach among museums has enhanced visitor engagement and addressed the fragmentation of cultural resources [1] - The "Dream of the Red Chamber" themed park in Langfang offers an immersive experience, blending reality and performance [3] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The integration of technology in tourism is creating new consumer experiences, as seen in Shenzhen's robot-themed district [5] - Beijing has introduced ten industrial technology-themed travel routes, featuring robot-operated services in restaurants and showrooms [7] Group 3: Film and Entertainment Integration - The film market remains robust, with box office earnings of 1.835 billion yuan and 50.07 million attendees during the holiday [9] - Innovative combinations of film with tourism, food, and cultural experiences are emerging, enhancing consumer engagement [12] Group 4: Sports and Events - Sports events are becoming a significant driver of consumption and economic growth during the holiday period [14] - Various sports competitions, such as basketball leagues and tennis matches, have attracted large audiences and boosted local economies [14][16] Group 5: Policy Support - Government policies are playing a crucial role in stimulating holiday economic activity, with initiatives like personal consumption loan subsidies and consumption vouchers [15][17][19] - These measures are designed to enhance consumer confidence and spending, contributing to the overall vitality of the market [19]

Domestic Macro - The domestic macroeconomic landscape shows distinct characteristics in consumption and industrial policy, with a shift towards rational travel decisions during the National Day holiday, as overall travel intensity was lower than during the May Day holiday [1][6] - The tourism market is evolving towards diversification and personalization, with traditional attractions losing some popularity while niche tourism options like "inter-provincial border tours" and "border tourism" are gaining traction [1][6] - The expansion of visa-free travel has stimulated outbound tourism, reflecting the release of domestic residents' international travel demand and the positive effects of national tourism opening policies [1][6] Foreign Macro - During the National Day holiday, the U.S. ADP employment and services PMI data were weaker than expected, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000 [1][13] - The U.S. services PMI fell to 50, indicating a slowdown in business activity and new orders, which may impact global market sentiment [1][13] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and demand for risk hedging against the dollar [2][17] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of continued market easing following the initial interest rate cuts [2][17] Oil Market - International oil prices fluctuated during the holiday, ultimately stabilizing around pre-holiday levels, influenced by ongoing supply increases and insufficient demand [2][18] - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day, reflecting a focus on maintaining market share amid competitive pressures [2][18] Film Industry - The National Day box office exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, with several films surpassing 100 million yuan in ticket sales, indicating a strong recovery in cultural consumption [8] - The diversity of content, including various genres, has driven demand, with family-oriented films performing particularly well [8] Industrial Policy - The release of growth stabilization plans by seven major industries before the holiday marks a significant shift towards quality and efficiency improvement rather than mere scale expansion [11] - The focus on supply-demand balance and the integration of artificial intelligence aligns with current technological trends, promoting high-end and intelligent industrial development [11] Overall Economic Outlook - The current domestic macroeconomic environment is characterized by structural optimization and diversified demand in consumption, alongside a commitment to high-quality development in industrial policy, which together create a favorable environment for economic growth [12][12] Key Commodity Trends - LME copper prices rose by 2.85% during the holiday, driven by supply concerns from Indonesia and ongoing tightness in the copper market [19] - LME zinc prices increased by 3.7%, supported by declining inventories and stable processing fees [19] - LME aluminum prices continued to rise, reflecting a tight supply-demand balance and positive macro sentiment [20] Agricultural Products - U.S. cotton prices weakened during the holiday due to market information delays caused by the government shutdown, while domestic cotton prices face pressure from new crop expectations [21] - International sugar prices are expected to remain weak due to increased supply from Brazil, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory levels [22] Shipping Industry - During the National Day holiday, shipping rates increased significantly, with major shipping lines raising prices for the second half of October [48] - The market is expected to enter a phase of competition for the year-end peak season, with attention on the impact of shipping rate adjustments [48]

Group 1 - The overall cross-regional population flow during the National Day holiday from October 1 to October 6 reached 1.83 billion person-times, with a daily average flow increasing by 5.2% year-on-year, but down 2.7 percentage points compared to the May Day holiday [3][35] - The average daily number of self-driving trips decreased by 2% year-on-year to 6.1% compared to the May Day holiday [3][35] - The nationwide migration index during the first five days of the holiday was 7.2% year-on-year, which is still lower than the May Day holiday's 22.2% [12][35] Group 2 - Traditional scenic spots saw a decline in popularity, with tourist reception and revenue in Sichuan's A-level scenic spots increasing by 12.4% and 10.3% year-on-year, respectively, but the growth rate was down 2.3 and 3.1 percentage points compared to the May Day holiday [19][36] - New highlights in tourism include "provincial border tourism" and "border tourism," with booking volumes for places like Zhaotong, Hezhou, and Ganzhou increasing by 95%, 88%, and 70% year-on-year, respectively [22][36] Group 3 - The average price of pre-sale airline tickets for the holiday was 804 yuan, higher than last year's 736 yuan and this year's May Day holiday average of 778.9 yuan [28][38] - Hotel and homestay booking rates for the holiday were 37.1% and 38.5%, respectively, down 6.1 and 9.2 percentage points compared to the May Day holiday [28][38] Group 4 - The film market showed improvement, with national box office revenue during the holiday increasing by 33.1% compared to the May Day holiday, while the average ticket price fell by 5.8% [32][39] - The number of moviegoers increased by 40.2% year-on-year, with lower-tier cities performing better in terms of box office growth [32][39]

Core Insights - The "Super Golden Week" during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival saw a significant increase in travel, with a total of 2.36 billion trips made, averaging about 295 million trips per day, a year-on-year increase of approximately 3.2% [1] - The tourism market is shifting from simple sightseeing to deeper experiential travel, with hotel bookings for stays of two days or more increasing by over 52% year-on-year [1] - The county tourism market is thriving, with over 30 counties seeing hotel booking growth exceeding 100%, indicating a shift towards quality experiences [3] Travel Trends - The trend of "traveling further" is evident, with domestic group tour bookings from non-first-tier cities increasing by over 70% [1][2] - The popularity of music festivals and sports events is driving county tourism, with events like the "Huluguo Music Festival" in Anhui leading to a 2.6-fold increase in hotel bookings [3] - The demand for high-quality accommodations in non-first-tier cities has surged, with bookings for multi-room homestays increasing by 140% [3] Outbound and Inbound Travel - Outbound travel is experiencing a resurgence, particularly among residents of non-first-tier cities, with long-haul group tours increasing by nearly 100% [5] - Popular destinations for outbound travel include Iceland and Norway, with booking increases of over 100% [6] - Inbound tourism is also thriving, with a 33% year-on-year increase in flight bookings by foreign passport holders, indicating a growing interest in lesser-known Chinese cities [6] Travel Behavior - The trend of staggered travel is becoming popular, with over 30% of workers choosing to travel early and return late, leading to a significant increase in bookings during the holiday's beginning and end [7] - Average domestic flight prices dropped by over 30% during the holiday, with some routes seeing price reductions exceeding 50% post-holiday [7] - This "staggered travel" approach helps alleviate pressure on resources during peak travel times, optimizing resource allocation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for A-shares to rise after the National Day holiday, supported by historical trends and recent global market movements, while highlighting key events that may influence market dynamics. Global Market Performance - During the National Day holiday, global stock indices mostly rose, with MSCI global index up by 0.8%, MSCI developed markets up by 0.7%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 2% [6] - Taiwan's weighted index and Korea's composite index each rose by 3.6%, while the US indices saw slight increases: Nasdaq up by 0.5%, Dow Jones up by 0.8%, and S&P 500 up by 0.4% [6] Commodity Market Trends - Most global commodities saw price increases, except for crude oil, which fell by 1.1% for WTI and 1% for Brent due to OPEC+ supply news [8] - Precious metals continued to rise, with COMEX gold up by 2.7% and silver up by 3.9% during the holiday [8] Key Events Impacting Markets - The US government shutdown has delayed key economic reports, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, which in turn supports gold prices [12][13] - Japan's political developments, particularly the potential election of the first female Prime Minister, may lead to increased inflationary pressures and affect market liquidity positively [16] AI and Semiconductor Sector - OpenAI's recent partnerships with major semiconductor companies like Samsung and AMD are expected to significantly boost their performance, driving up related stocks and the overall semiconductor sector [19][20] - OpenAI's collaborations could lead to a substantial increase in computing power, estimated at a cost of $1 trillion, indicating its pivotal role in the future of the AI industry [23] Domestic Consumption Trends - The National Day holiday saw a surge in outbound tourism, with daily outbound travelers expected to exceed 2 million [27] - The domestic consumption market is also heating up, with a nearly 40% increase in spending by inbound tourists during the holiday [30] A-share Market Outlook - Historical data shows a 70% probability of A-shares rising after the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index averaging a 0.48% increase on the first trading day of October [36][37] - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for the A-share market in Q4, expecting a "slow bull" trend amid wide fluctuations [38] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors for investment in Q4 include technology and cyclical industries, particularly those benefiting from advancements in solid-state battery technology and AI demand [44]