2025年12月16日陕西省统计局发布的数据显示，2025年1月至11月，全省限额以上企业（单位）消 费品零售额同比增长8.1%，其中以旧换新类商品零售额尤为亮眼。 提振消费的动能，源于政策与需求的有效对接。以旧换新政策持续显效，家用电器、通信器材、汽 车类商品零售额大幅增长，尤其是1级和2级能效家电65.8%、智能手机60.0%、新能源汽车34.8%的增 速，是政策对绿色消费、品质消费趋势的敏锐捕捉。当前，政策需更注重"靶向滴灌"，通过补贴杠杆引 导消费需求向低碳化、智能化、高端化转型，既降低居民换新门槛，又推动产业不断升级，从短期刺激 转向长期培育。 消费市场稳健运行，离不开基本盘的坚实支撑。粮油、食品类商品零售额同比增长12.6%，彰显了 民生消费的韧性，也说明提振消费并非只盯大宗消费与新型消费，而是要构建"基本需求稳固、升级需 求突出"的格局。结构平衡，让消费市场在面对外部波动时更具抗风险能力，也为政策发力提供清晰靶 向，既通过金融支持、补贴优惠激活升级潜力，又通过保障供给、优化环境筑牢民生底线。 中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为2026年经济工作重点任务之一。陕西 要用好我国 ...

12月26日，以"新开局、新动能、新征程"为主题的"启航·2025金融峰会"在北京圆满举办，大会由金融界主办，汇聚监管部门、行业协会、金融机构、上市 公司、媒体等领域数百位相关领导和重磅嘉宾。会上，第十四届金融界"金智奖"年度评选结果重磅揭晓，金龙鱼荣获"上市公司韧性发展"奖项。 责任编辑：钟离 作为粮油食品行业的领军企业，金龙鱼深耕主业三十余载，始终以稳健的战略布局与敏锐的市场洞察力应对行业波动，其发展韧性在业绩表现、创新转型与 责任践行中全面彰显。业绩层面，企业已实现从前期调整到稳步复苏的关键跨越，今年前三季度累计实现营业收入1,842.70亿元，同比增长5.02%；归母净 利润达27.49亿元，同比增幅高达92.06%，向市场传递出积极信号。 1991年，第一瓶金龙鱼小包装食用油上市，推动消费者从吃散装油向吃安全、卫生的小包装油转变；2002年，第二代调和油开启食用油行业"营养均衡"革 命；再到稻米油、6步鲜大米、"零反"系列食用油等多款创新产品的相继落地，金龙鱼始终聚焦核心竞争力培育，在研发创新与质量安全领域精耕细作。面 对银发经济崛起与健康需求升级的市场趋势，金龙鱼于2025年4月顺势推出大健康品牌 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in Qinghai Province is stable and progressing steadily as of November 2023, with efforts focused on high-quality development [1] Industrial Production - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to November, with a 0.2 percentage point increase compared to the previous period [2] - The manufacturing sector showed significant contributions, with a 10.4% increase in added value, driving a 6.4 percentage point growth in industrial added value [2] - Key industries performed well, with 18 out of 35 industrial categories experiencing growth, resulting in a growth rate of 51.4% [2] - Notable growth in specific sectors includes non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing at 23.5%, and chemical raw materials and products manufacturing at 8.8% [2] - Major product outputs saw rapid increases, including lithium iron phosphate (74.9%), lithium-ion batteries (46.0%), and carbonates (22.1%) [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 9.6% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed by 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous period [3] - High-tech service industry investment grew by 20.2%, with a notable increase in information transmission and IT services at 52.4% [3] - Industrial technological transformation project investments surged by 23.7%, reflecting a 10.0 percentage point increase from the previous period [3] - Infrastructure investment, accounting for 33.8% of total fixed asset investment, grew by 19.4%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous period [3] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 948.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [4] - Among 19 categories of goods, 12 categories experienced retail sales growth, including hardware and electrical materials (44.3%) and household appliances (21.8%) [4] - Other categories with notable growth include beverages (21.0%), books and magazines (14.4%), and construction materials (10.3%) [4]

天眼查App显示，近日，兰考县娜禾粮油食品有限公司成立，法定代表人为陈勇，注册资本30万人民 币，经营范围为许可项目：食品销售（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具 体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）一般项目：食用农产品初加工；农产品的生产、销 售、加工、运输、贮藏及其他相关服务；食品互联网销售（仅销售预包装食品）；食品添加剂销售；低 温仓储（不含危险化学品等需许可审批的项目）；谷物种植；豆类种植；薯类种植；油料种植；水果种 植；蔬菜种植；技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；信息技术咨询服 务；广告设计、代理；互联网销售（除销售需要许可的商品）（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照 依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

Economic Overview - November economic data shows a consistent trend with previous periods, indicating weakness in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments, while consumer confidence remains low[7] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year decreased from -1.7% to -2.6%, reflecting a significant fluctuation and pointing towards a need for improved supply-demand structure[7] - Retail sales growth in November dropped to 1.3%, influenced by previous high base effects and a decline in consumer confidence post "Double Eleven" promotions[7] Policy and Investment Insights - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been fully deployed, but the impact on investment growth may take time to materialize[7] - The focus on effective industrial investment is emphasized, with policies aiming for high-quality and sustainable growth rather than mere quantitative expansion[7] - Recent policies aimed at enhancing consumer goods supply-demand compatibility and promoting consumption are expected to gradually improve consumer sentiment[7] Production and Trade Dynamics - Industrial value-added output slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points, but high-tech industries showed a robust growth of 8.4%, indicating technology's crucial role in overall economic growth[7] - Export delivery value improved slightly from -2.1% to -0.1%, suggesting a narrowing of production fluctuations due to external trade conditions[7] Future Outlook - The market anticipates weaker growth in Q4 compared to Q3, with the expectation that the effects of new policies will take time to manifest, leading to continued economic challenges until year-end[7] - Despite current weaknesses, China's economic momentum remains strong, supported by counter-cyclical policies and a focus on domestic demand, particularly consumption[7]

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年12月15日 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 从业资格证号： F3063825 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 11月消费投资低于预期 摘要 11月固定资产投资增速和社零增长均低于市场预期。11出口增速 超市场预期。11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长低于市场预期， 11月服务业生产指数同比增速较10月回落0.4个百分点。11月国内房 地产销量同比和房价继续下行，12月上旬的数据也表现如此。截至今 年10月底，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已全部完成投放，11月的 投资数据未表现出明显改观。中美在10月末元首会晤之后，不断拉长 合作清单、压缩问题清单，相对稳定的国际环境有利于中国出口。出 口信心稳定则有利民间投资增长。 1-11月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，市场预期下降2.2 %，1-10月份为同比下降1.7%。分类来看，1-11月份广义基建投 ...

Economic Overview - In November, the national economy continued to show a stable and progressive development trend, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies and promoting high-quality development [2][6] - The total grain production for the year is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44% [3] - The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry saw significant growth, with increases of 7.7% and 8.4% respectively [3] - The production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles grew by 100.5%, 20.6%, and 17.0% year-on-year respectively [3] Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and physical goods online retail sales accounted for 25.9% of total retail sales [4] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in cultural, sports, and travel services [4] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, while manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% [5] - Infrastructure investment fell by 1.1%, and real estate development investment dropped by 15.9% [5] - Investment in high-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, saw significant increases of 29.6% and 19.7% respectively [5] Policy Impact - A series of proactive macro policies have effectively supported stable economic operations, leading to expanded consumer demand and increased key investments [7][8] - The implementation of consumption upgrade policies has resulted in significant sales growth in home appliances and communication equipment [8] - The industrial production growth was supported by policies promoting market demand and industrial upgrades [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a continuous recovery trend [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a narrowing decline trend since August [10][11] Long-term Economic Outlook - The resilience of the economy remains strong, with macro policies providing robust support and new growth drivers emerging [12][13] - The expansion of market demand and the continuous growth of new economic drivers are expected to positively impact economic development [12][14] - The upcoming economic policies aim to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply, ensuring a solid foundation for future growth [14]

拒绝"内卷式竞争"，构筑健康市场生态—— 优质优价，让市场有效运行 消费者更加看重品质与体验，愿意为"值得"买单；越来越多的企业从"价格战"中抽身，潜心于技 术、质量与品牌；日益完善的营商环境，则为"优者胜出"提供了舞台……从一味强调低价，到注重优质 优价，中国市场正经历一场重要的转变。 "十五五"规划建议明确提出，"形成优质优价、良性竞争的市场秩序"。在多位专家看来，这是纵深 推进全国统一大市场建设的重要要求，意味着今后5年，中国将着力引导和保障市场竞争聚焦于价值创 造，通过价格信号有效激励创新与提质，从而为构建新发展格局、增强经济内生动能奠定更坚实的市场 基础。 从"卷价格"转向"优价值" 如何理解优质优价？ "优质优价是'十五五'规划建议中提出的一个新要求，具有鲜明的时代特征和指导意义。"许光建 说。优质优价是市场经济有效运行的基本要求。竞争是市场经济的本质特征，合理的价格机制是市场竞 争机制发挥作用、激发市场活力和增强发展动力的前提和基础。随着我国经济社会发展进入新阶段，生 产者将生产出质量更加优异的产品，越来越多的消费者也会购买高质量的产品。 优质优价写入国家发展规划建议，体现了当下怎样的变化？ 消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is undergoing a significant transformation from a focus on low prices to an emphasis on quality and value, as consumers increasingly prioritize quality and experience over mere cost savings [6][10][11]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumers are shifting their purchasing criteria from "absolute low prices" to safety, quality, and service, indicating a rational pursuit of a better quality of life [7][10]. - The middle-income group is expanding, and Generation Z is becoming the main consumer force, focusing more on quality, health, experience, and emotional resonance [10][14]. Group 2: Industry and Market Dynamics - Many companies are moving away from price wars and are instead focusing on technology, quality, and brand development [6][12]. - The "Fifteen Five" plan emphasizes the creation of a market order that prioritizes quality and fair competition, which is essential for fostering innovation and enhancing economic vitality [6][8][11]. Group 3: Implications for Business - Companies are encouraged to adopt a "quality over price" strategy, which can lead to higher customer satisfaction and loyalty, even if it results in lower foot traffic compared to low-price competitors [12][13]. - The integration of quality standards and branding can help businesses focus on producing high-quality products while ensuring fair compensation for producers [7][13]. Group 4: Regulatory and Policy Framework - The market regulatory authority is actively implementing policies to combat "involution" in competition, including holding discussions with businesses and enforcing fair competition practices [15][16]. - Experts suggest that breaking down local protectionism and enhancing market access for high-quality products are crucial for achieving a balanced market environment [16][17].

据了解，该活动由四川省粮食和物资储备局、北京市粮食和物资储备局联合主办，四川省粮食行业协会 承办。 推介会上，"天府菜油"授权产品企业代表获得北京超市供应企业协会会员单位授牌。这不仅是"天府菜 油"开拓京城市场的重要里程碑，更是川京粮油产业、餐饮行业资源互补、协同发展的新起点，为推动 更多"川字号"优质粮油产品进入首都市场、服务首都市民开启了新窗口。 北京商报讯（记者 郭缤璐）11月26日，以"天府油韵·京城盛宴"为主题的2025"天府菜油"品牌推介会在 北京举行。推介会期间，来自四川的38家粮油、食品企业现场展示了百余款优质产品，20家企业成功签 约，签约总金额超2亿元。 ...