Core Insights - Tianjin Dongli District focuses on innovation-driven development, cultivating new quality productivity, and continuously releasing new development momentum [1] - The district has added 226 national high-tech enterprises and 133 specialized and innovative enterprises over the past five years, with a technology contract transaction volume of 43 billion yuan [1] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the manufacturing value-added in Dongli District accounts for over 30% of GDP [1] Group 1: Industry Development - Dongli District has cultivated three billion-level industrial chains in new energy intelligent connected vehicles, light industry, and high-end equipment, with the new materials industry cluster's output nearing 50 billion yuan [1] - Strategic emerging industries account for 30.8% of the district's regulated industrial output [1] - The aerospace industry chain's output increased by 60% year-on-year in 2022, supported by leading enterprises like Aisida [1] Group 2: Traditional Industry Transformation - A total of 33 projects, including those from China and American Schering-Plough and Jinqiao Welding Materials, have secured 1.24 billion yuan in national bond funding, driving nearly 10 billion yuan in investments for smart upgrades and energy-saving initiatives [2] - Dongli District has launched 85 "smart transformation" projects in the past three years, enhancing traditional industries while fostering new emerging industries [2] - Twelve enterprises, including Tiangang and Steel Pipe Company, have been recognized as national green factories, while Pinggao Intelligent Electric and Zhixin Electric have been awarded as national excellent intelligent factories [2] Group 3: Collaboration and Investment - Dongli District has leveraged the opportunities from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development, successfully attracting 122 high-quality projects with a total investment of over 40 billion yuan [2] - Collaborations with high-level institutions such as Tsinghua University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences have been established to enhance resource integration [2]

自 9 月 4 日开始，电子信息制造业稳增长行动方案落地，其他重点行业稳增长行动逐步出台。实施新一 轮十大重点行业稳增长行动，就是进一步稳住工业经济，全力巩固经济发展基本盘。 从本轮十大重点行业稳增长行动方案的具体内容看，主要是兼顾短期稳预期与长期调结构，注重质的有效 提升和量的合理增长，顺应经济社会发展新趋势，有利于优质企业脱颖而出，有利于高质量发展和新型工 业化走深走实。 金秋时节，我国工业经济稳增长又进一步落子布局。 稳预期调结构 从9月4日《电子信息制造业 2025-2026 年稳增长行动方案》率先出台，到 9 月 29 日《机械行业稳增长 工作方案（ 2025-2026 年）》印发，十大行业（钢铁、有色金属、石化、化工、建材、机械、汽车、电 力装备、轻工、电子信息制造业）稳增长方案已全部发布。 方正中期资深研究员魏朝明表示，十大重点行业影响较大，同时又面临着不同的现实挑战。钢铁、有色金 属、建材等相关产业供过于求的风险有所凸显，减量提质促进供需动态平衡的任务艰巨。汽车、电子信息 制造业等行业承担着高质量发展的重任，在快速发展过程中面临着新问题新挑战，需要明确规则边界，加 大对新质生产力的扶持力度。 ...

天津东丽：科技创新驱动产业升级 237项成果落地转化 中新网天津10月15日电 (江莹)在14日举行的天津市政府新闻发布会上，东丽区委书记贾堤介绍，该区通 过科技创新推动产业升级，已有237项科技成果成功实现从实验室到生产线的转化。 贾堤表示，天开东丽园自开园以来，成立了天津市低空经济产业联盟，设立5亿元专项引导基金，配套 服务设施完善，新增运营载体3.68万平方米。围绕低空经济、航空航天等主导产业，已吸引202家科技 型企业入驻。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 在对外开放方面，东丽区深化与上合国家经贸合作，3000多个中国制造产品覆盖中亚市场，其中，同乌 兹别克斯坦的贸易额近4亿元。五年来，全区外贸进出口额年均增长15.6%。 同时，东丽区推进国企改革、经开区改革等一系列举措，破解发展体制机制障碍。今年上半年，园区规 上工业增加值增长11%，财政收入增长24.2%。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：王永乐 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by two national departments in China regarding nine key industries is seen as a roadmap for stable growth, indicating a clear direction for investment opportunities in the coming years [2][4][6]. Group 1: Policy and Industry Direction - The nine industries are part of a long-term strategy, marking the transition from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th, outlining where resources should be allocated in the next five years [6][7]. - China's policy continuity is emphasized as a significant certainty, contrasting with other markets where policies frequently change [7][9]. - The focus is on long-term logic rather than short-term numerical fluctuations, with funding expected to follow established policy directions [9]. Group 2: Key Themes in the Nine Industries - The first theme is "high-quality development," which prioritizes stability over rapid growth in certain sectors, such as construction materials and light industry, to protect supply chains and employment [11][13]. - The second theme is "domestic discourse power," promoting self-sufficiency in technology, particularly in AI servers, allowing for a 20% price premium for domestic products [13][15]. - The third theme is "green transformation," which aims to upgrade industries through low-carbon processes, emphasizing environmental standards as a competitive advantage [15][17]. - The fourth theme is "anti-involution," which seeks to control new capacity in industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries, shifting the focus from scale to technology [17]. Group 3: Structural Opportunities in Specific Industries - The electronic information manufacturing sector is highlighted as a key beneficiary, with a projected growth rate of 7% and a target for AI server industry scale exceeding 400 billion [19][21]. - The automotive industry is transitioning to a focus on new energy and smart technologies, with a projected 20% growth in electric vehicles, indicating a shift from price competition to technological advancement [21][22]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is encouraged to focus on high-value-added products rather than raw material extraction, signaling a shift towards processing and innovation [24][26]. Group 4: Investment Logic for the Future - The investment logic for the next five years emphasizes policy benefits, industry characteristics, and technological capabilities rather than chasing new concepts or hot trends [26].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has announced the 2025 Green Factory Recommendation Work, focusing on energy conservation and carbon reduction to enhance the green competitiveness of industries, supporting enterprises in 53 key sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The recommendation work includes green factories and green industrial parks, with enterprises or parks meeting the requirements voluntarily conducting self-evaluations based on new evaluation criteria [2][4]. - Provincial industrial and information departments will select enterprises or parks based on the principle of "choosing the best among the best" and ensuring that recommended entities meet or exceed the average level of existing national green factories and parks in their regions [2][4]. Group 2: Specific Requirements - New applicants for national green factories and industrial parks must register on the management platform, complete self-evaluations, and provide supporting materials without needing third-party evaluation reports [3][4]. - Existing national green factories and parks must also log onto the management platform for self-evaluation against new criteria, with those scoring in the bottom 5% for three consecutive years being removed from the list [5][6]. Group 3: Work Requirements - Provincial departments are required to enhance the verification of data and supporting materials for enterprises or parks to ensure the quality of recommendations, with a deadline for submission set for November 7, 2025 [6]. - Experts from MIIT will review the recommended lists, ensuring a rigorous selection process, and any entity found to have falsified data will be removed from the list and barred from reapplying for three years [6]. Group 4: Key Industry List - The key industries supported in this initiative include steel, petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, building materials, machinery, light industry, textiles, and electronics [12].

重点行业能效"领跑者"，是指在山东省内从事生产经营活动，同类可比范围内主要工序、单位产品能耗 指标达到相应国家强制性能耗限额标准先进值和能效标杆水平，且持续提升能源利用效率的企业。重点 行业主要包括石化化工、钢铁、有色金属、建材、轻工、纺织等行业，具体包括原油加工、煤制焦炭、 煤制烯烃等38个细分行业。省工业和信息化厅将会同省发展和改革委员会、省市场监督管理局组织专家 对各市推荐的申报材料进行复审，择优遴选出山东省重点行业能效"领跑者"名单。重点行业能效"领跑 者"称号有效期为一年。（记者 付玉婷） 省工业和信息化厅、省发展和改革委员会、省市场监督管理局近日联合印发《山东省重点行业能效"领 跑者"遴选管理办法》，山东将每年开展一次重点行业能效"领跑者"认定，通过多种形式广泛宣传推广 先进经验，带动全行业能源利用效率整体提升。获得山东省重点行业能效"领跑者"称号的企业，优先推 荐申报国家能效"领跑者"及省级绿色制造示范标杆单位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated the 2025 Green Factory Recommendation Work to enhance energy conservation and carbon reduction, focusing on 53 key industries to improve the green competitiveness of enterprises [1][5]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The recommendation work includes both green factories and green industrial parks, with enterprises or parks voluntarily conducting self-evaluations based on new evaluation criteria [5][6]. - Provincial industrial and information departments will select enterprises or parks that meet the requirements, ensuring that recommended entities are at least at the average level of existing national green factories and parks in their regions [5][6]. Group 2: Specific Requirements - New applicants for national green factories and parks must register on the Industrial Energy Conservation and Green Development Management Platform and complete self-evaluations without needing third-party evaluation reports [6][7]. - Existing national green factories and parks are required to conduct self-evaluations against new criteria, with those scoring in the bottom 5% for three consecutive years being removed from the list [6][7]. Group 3: Work Requirements - Provincial departments must ensure the authenticity and accuracy of data and supporting materials submitted by enterprises or parks, with a deadline for submission set for November 7, 2025 [7]. - The MIIT will review the recommended lists and publicize the final list of 2025 green factories and parks, with penalties for any falsification of data [7]. Group 4: Key Industries - The 53 key industries supported in this initiative include sectors such as steel, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, building materials, machinery, light industry, textiles, and electronics [14][15][16][17][18][19][20].

- The "ERP and DRP standardized equal-weight calculation model" is used to compute A-share odds, which as of September end, declined to 0.2 standard deviations, indicating a neutral level[10] - The "macro victory rate scoring card model" synthesizes asset victory rates based on factors like credit and PMI pulses, which recently bottomed out, pushing A-share victory rates to 19%[10] - The "bond odds model" is constructed using the expected yield difference between long and short bonds, with recent bond odds retreating to -0.9 standard deviations, reflecting valuation risks for long bonds[11] - The "bond victory rate model" integrates credit and growth expansion data, showing a decline to -6%, indicating low victory rates[11] - The "AIAE indicator model" for US stocks is at 54%, its historical peak, corresponding to 2.4 standard deviations, signaling high pullback risks[15] - The "Federal Reserve liquidity index model" combines quantity and price dimensions, showing a tightening liquidity index at 20%, a medium-high level[15] Model Backtesting Results - ERP and DRP model: A-share odds at 0.2 standard deviations, victory rate at 19%[10] - Bond odds model: -0.9 standard deviations, victory rate at -6%[11] - AIAE indicator model: 54% historical peak, 2.4 standard deviations[15] - Federal Reserve liquidity index: 20% medium-high level[15] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Value factor: High odds (0.9 SD), medium trend (-0.3 SD), low crowding (-1.4 SD), comprehensive score 3, recommended for focus[19][22] - Small-cap factor: Medium odds (-0.2 SD), strong trend (1.6 SD), medium-low crowding (-0.5 SD), comprehensive score 2.2, configuration value improved[20][23] - Quality factor: High odds (1.4 SD), weak trend (-1.2 SD), medium-low crowding (-0.5 SD), comprehensive score 0.6, recommended for long-term attention[24][26] - Growth factor: Medium-high odds (0.8 SD), medium trend (0.1 SD), high crowding (1.0 SD), comprehensive score 0.1, recommended for standard allocation[27][28] Factor Backtesting Results - Value factor: Odds 0.9 SD, trend -0.3 SD, crowding -1.4 SD, score 3[19][22] - Small-cap factor: Odds -0.2 SD, trend 1.6 SD, crowding -0.5 SD, score 2.2[20][23] - Quality factor: Odds 1.4 SD, trend -1.2 SD, crowding -0.5 SD, score 0.6[24][26] - Growth factor: Odds 0.8 SD, trend 0.1 SD, crowding 1.0 SD, score 0.1[27][28] Strategy Construction and Evaluation - "Odds-enhanced strategy" allocates assets based on odds indicators under volatility constraints, achieving annualized returns of 6.6%-7.5% and maximum drawdowns of 2.4%-3.0% since 2011[39][41] - "Victory rate-enhanced strategy" uses macro victory rate scoring to allocate assets, achieving annualized returns of 6.3%-7.7% and maximum drawdowns of 2.3%-2.8% since 2011[42][44] - "Odds + victory rate strategy" combines risk budgets from both strategies, achieving annualized returns of 7.0%-7.6% and maximum drawdowns of 2.7%-2.8% since 2011[45][47] Strategy Backtesting Results - Odds-enhanced strategy: Annualized returns 6.6%-7.5%, max drawdowns 2.4%-3.0%[39][41] - Victory rate-enhanced strategy: Annualized returns 6.3%-7.7%, max drawdowns 2.3%-2.8%[42][44] - Odds + victory rate strategy: Annualized returns 7.0%-7.6%, max drawdowns 2.7%-2.8%[45][47]

联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 金融制造行业 10 月投资观点及金股推荐 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江金融行业（地产、非银、银行）和制造行业（电新、机械、军工、轻工、环保）2025 年 10 月投资观点及金股推荐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 于博 赵智勇 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BRP550 王贺嘉 蔡方羿 徐科 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490517090001 SFC：BUX462 SFC：BUV463 SFC：BUV415 刘义 吴一凡 马祥云 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521120002 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BUV596 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that Chinese "manufacturing hard consumption" companies are entering a golden development period for globalization, transitioning from "product export" to "brand export" due to technological accumulation, supply chain advantages, and global layout [1][2] - The Chinese government has introduced favorable policies to support the globalization of manufacturing hard consumption enterprises, including guidance on brand internationalization and cross-border trade facilitation [2][3] - In 2024, policy support will focus on cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouse construction, addressing challenges in overseas storage and distribution for enterprises [3][4] Group 2 - Chinese manufacturing hard consumption enterprises have developed a multi-faceted overseas expansion model characterized by "technological breakthroughs, localized production, and brand upgrades," with significant global factory layouts [3][4] - The innovation capabilities of Chinese companies in the consumer electronics and smart hardware sectors are gaining global recognition, with products like robotic vacuum cleaners and portable chargers consistently ranking as best sellers on cross-border e-commerce platforms [4][5] - The report identifies three major opportunities for the globalization of Chinese manufacturing hard consumption during the 15th Five-Year Plan period: the release of demand in emerging markets, product premiumization driven by technological upgrades, and the improvement of cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouse systems [5][6] Group 3 - The globalization of Chinese manufacturing hard consumption is evolving from simple "product output" to "standard output" and "service output," with companies participating in the formulation of global industry standards and establishing comprehensive after-sales service networks [5][6] - The report emphasizes that the globalization journey of Chinese manufacturing hard consumption enterprises has entered a new phase, supported by policies, industrial foundations, and innovation vitality, positioning them as key players in the global consumption market [6][7] - The report outlines a comprehensive policy framework to support the internationalization of the domestic consumption industry, facilitating the transition from "product export" to "capacity export" and "brand export" [24][25]