Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices are expected to trade in a range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the upside of copper prices, but the supply - demand contradiction in the medium - long term provides support. The short - term trading focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will affect the Fed's decision in September [1]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is expected to remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price oscillating between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and the 21,000 yuan/ton level is a key resistance [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand of the aluminum alloy market remains weak, with the main contract price expected to oscillate between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply and import of scrap aluminum [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are likely to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals do not strongly support a continuous rise in zinc prices, but low inventories provide support [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate [9]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is expected to have an interval adjustment in the short term, with the main contract price between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is weakening, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. The cost support is strengthening, but the spot demand is weak [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract price having strong support between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Although the market sentiment is weak, the fundamentals are in a tight balance [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 190 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased by 10.08% to 944 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week to 55.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,154 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased to - 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,644 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 13.59% week - on - week to 13.54 million tons [6]. Tin - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49%. The import profit and loss decreased to - 19,038.82 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 120,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The futures import profit and loss decreased to - 1,857 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import increased by 116.90% month - on - month to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped to 13,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased to 400 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.00% week - on - week to 49.65 million tons [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spreads**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 85,700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2509 - 2511 decreased to 40 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 93,958 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 97,846 tons [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment of a weakening US economy and commodity inflation restricts the space for interest rate cuts, suppressing the upside of copper prices. The short - term focus is on interest rate cut expectations. In the fundamental aspect, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions and long - term overcapacity coexist, and the price is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, macro factors provide some support, but the supply - demand structure is under pressure. The supply is stable with a slight increase, while the demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. The short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. As it enters the transition period from the off - peak to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import situation remains the same, the spot price may remain relatively firm, and the spread between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate of global mines in May and domestic mines in July is lower than expected. The supply at the smelting end is increasing, while the demand is in the seasonal off - peak period. Low global inventories support prices. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - The actual tin ore supply remains tight. If the supply recovery fails to meet expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels [9]. Nickel - The macro environment has increased expectations of more aggressive easing. The spot price is basically stable, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The stainless steel demand is weak, and the new energy downstream has low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is oscillating weakly. The export pressure has been temporarily alleviated, and the nickel iron price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is expected to increase, but the terminal demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract referring to 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is slightly adjusted, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short - term, while demand is showing a positive trend. The overall inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with the main contract fluctuating in the range of 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.38 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,289 yuan/ton, an improvement of 113.2 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum products have increased to varying degrees [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions. The scrap - to - refined price difference in some regions has changed, such as a 9.38% decrease in the scrap - to - refined price difference of Foshan crushed raw aluminum [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 625,000 tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 266,000 tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,728 yuan/ton, an improvement of 62.92 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 89 dollars/ton, up 41.27% from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remains stable at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,350 yuan/ton, up 6.82% from the previous day [10]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in July was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The forward - spot spread is 385 yuan/ton, up 24.19% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in July was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread remains stable at 2,300 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month. The total inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Macroscopically, the "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the space for interest - rate cuts, suppressing the upside potential of copper prices. The short - term focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will influence the Fed's decision in September. - Fundamentally, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. With "tight mine supply + resilient demand," there is support for prices. In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The price is expected to range between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions such as the crackdown on bauxite theft in Shanxi and the demonstration in Guinea have raised concerns, but mid - term production capacity is expected to increase, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. - For electrolytic aluminum, although there is some support from domestic consumption - stimulating policies and expectations of Fed rate cuts, the supply is stable with a slight increase, and demand is still in the off - season. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, with a focus on the 21,000 yuan/ton resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, as it enters the transition period from the off - season to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import price ratio remains the same, the supply of imported aluminum alloy ingots and scrap will be limited. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate in May globally and in July domestically fell short of expectations. The smelter's production enthusiasm is high, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. Demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to range between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - Supply of tin ore remains tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. Demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season. If supply recovers smoothly, short - selling opportunities may arise; otherwise, the price will remain high and volatile [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the US inflation pressure has eased, and the market expects more aggressive easing policies. Industrially, the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the price of ferronickel is rising, but there is still an oversupply pressure. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the downstream of the new energy sector has a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak, with low procurement enthusiasm from downstream enterprises. Although the export pressure has been alleviated, the terminal demand is still weak. The price of ferronickel is rising, and the supply of stainless steel is expected to increase in August. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short term, while demand is entering the peak season and is showing a positive trend. Although the actual demand has not significantly increased due to inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the overall market atmosphere is strong. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various types of copper decreased slightly, with the SMM 1 electrolytic copper at 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 3.59% to 1,020 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47%, and imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74%. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventories decreased by 10.01% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The import loss decreased by 113.2 yuan/ton to 1,289 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.41% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 30 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31%. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 2.03% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The import loss decreased by 62.92 yuan/ton to 1,728 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03%. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 13.59% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price was 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 41.27% to 89.00 dollars/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 to - 230. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remained unchanged at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 6.82% to 2,350 yuan/ton. - **Supply and Inventory**: In July, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 1.72% [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 1.00% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41%, and demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View Copper - In the short - term, copper prices are expected to range - bound between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Macro factors like US economic data and tariff policies, along with fundamental supply - demand and inventory conditions, will influence the price. The market is in a state of short - term supply - demand weakness during the off - season, but "tight mining end + demand resilience" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton this week. The market will experience a game between short - term supply disturbances and over - capacity. Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors include supply and demand fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,400 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as tight scrap aluminum supply and weak terminal demand [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Upward rebound requires continuous inventory reduction and improved interest - rate cut expectations without overseas economic recession. Downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and refined zinc inventory accumulation. The current supply - demand situation provides limited support for continuous price increase, but low inventory provides price support [9]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate. Supply is currently tight, and demand is expected to be weak [12]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward price space [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract operating range of 13,000 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Cost support is strengthening, but the weak spot demand restricts the fundamentals [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely in a relatively strong range, around 85,000 yuan/ton. The market is affected by short - term news, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider light - position long - entry at low prices [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 79,435 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.05%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 53.62 yuan/ton to 65TT yuan/ton, a decline of 4.54%. The import profit and loss increased by 119.85 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74% [1]. - The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 9.80 million tons to 61.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.79% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 20,710 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.24%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamentals - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.4 million tons to 58.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.26% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.22%. The import profit and loss increased by 80.61 yuan/ton to - 1,813 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamentals - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97% [9]. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 1.60 million tons to 12.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.13% [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 269,500 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.26%. The import profit and loss decreased by 717.98 yuan/ton to - 16,507.39 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamentals - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94% [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.36%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamentals - China's refined nickel production in the reference period decreased by 3,220 tons to 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume increased by 10,325 tons to 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.38%. The 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamentals - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) decreased by 6.83 million tons to 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83% [16]. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.65 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.23%. The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamentals - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62% [19]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in July decreased by 2,012 tons to 97,846 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [19].

2025年8月14日A股三大股指涨跌不一，创业板新能源 ETF 华夏（159368）连续四个交易日收涨， 今日小幅调整，截至午盘，下跌 0.28%。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 光伏方面，中国银河证券表示，"反内卷"政策持续推进，7月国家发改委、市场监管总局研究起草 《价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》，将对规范价格秩序具有指引作用。在相应政策推动影响下，多晶 硅、硅片及电池片价格明显回升，组件价格小幅上涨。展望后市，硅料端的价格传导已经初见成效。光 伏行业出清与整合势在必行，该行预计2027年进入稳态发展阶段，从产能成本差异性、企业资金实力等 维度来看，硅料环节比较优势最为明显，整体有望实现产能整合和出清。 创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）是全市场首只上市跟踪创业板新能源指数的ETF基金，该指数主 要涵盖新能源和新能源汽车产业，涉及电池、光伏等 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Range-bound" [1] Core Viewpoints - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **2509 Contract**: The closing price was 82,560, with a volume of 162,667 and an open interest of 117,650. Compared to previous periods, there were significant changes in volume and open interest [2] - **2511 Contract**: The closing price was 82,520, with a large volume of 1,417,704 and an open interest of 356,998. Volume and open interest also showed notable fluctuations [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 20,829 hands, with changes compared to previous periods [2] - **Basis**: The basis between different contracts and product grades showed various changes [2] - **Raw Materials**: Lithium concentrate prices and other raw material prices changed compared to previous periods [2] - **Lithium Salts**: Prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other lithium salts increased compared to the previous day [2][3] - **Downstream Products**: Prices of products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also had different degrees of change [2] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 78,124 yuan/ton, up 3,557 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 75,800 yuan/ton, both up 3,500 yuan/ton [3] - The Lithium Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to relevant enterprises in the lithium industry chain to strengthen upstream - downstream collaboration, maintain industrial safety, and resist "involution - style" vicious competition [4]

倡议书表示，让我们携手共进，积极践行上述倡议，以实际行动抵制"内卷式"恶性竞争，共同营造公平公 正、平稳有序的市场环境，推动我国锂产业迈向高端化、智能化、可持续的高质量发展新阶段。 通过签订长期合作协议等方式稳定市场供应，推动布局优化与产业链协同,保障产业链供应链循环畅通，维 护行业良性发展环境。 中国有色金属工业协会锂业分会文件 8月12日，据中国有色金属工业协会锂业分会微信公众号，为强化行业自律，防止"内卷式"恶性竞争，保障 产业链供应链安全，促进锂行业健康有序发展，中国有色金属工业协会锂业分会向锂产业链相关企业发出 倡议书。 中色协锂业分会(2025) 12 号 倡议书提出，加强上下游协同，维护产业安全。秉持产业命运共同体发展理念，坚持市场公平竞争原则， 坚决抵制无序竞争、垄断市场、虚假宣传等行为。积极研判市场发展趋势，合理布局新建产能。提升产业 链上下游战略合作层次与协同发展水平，增强信息透明度减少沟通壁垒。通过签订长期合作协议等方式稳 定市场供应，推动布局优化与产业链协同,保障产业链供应链循环畅通，维护行业良性发展环境。 关于锂行业健康发展的倡议书 为强化行业自律,防止"内卷式"恶性竞争,保障产业链 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. After the disappointment of US copper tariffs, the electrolytic copper market in non - US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. Copper pricing returns to macro trading, and it may still fluctuate within a range without significant macro disturbances. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Zinc - The TC of zinc ore has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global mine output in May and domestic mine output in June are both lower than expected. The smelter's enthusiasm for resuming production is high, and the smelter's operating rate is stronger than the seasonality. The supply - side relaxation logic of the mine end is gradually transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined zinc output in July exceeded expectations. The demand side is significantly suppressed by the strong disk price, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. The basic situation of "loose supply + weak demand" is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices, but the low inventory provides price support. It is expected that zinc prices will still operate in a shock in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported to rebound, and the basis weakens, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the future, and the core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 in the short term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected that the price will still be under pressure at a high level in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract this month is 20,000 - 21,000 [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum in the market is relatively tight, which provides certain support for recycled aluminum on the cost side. The demand side is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue, which will continuously suppress the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, and the reference range for the main contract is 19,200 - 20,200 [8]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees of smelters continue to be at a low level. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply resumes smoothly, there is a large downward space for tin prices; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals do not change much. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. It is expected that the disk will adjust within a range in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Recently, the disk is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions. The short - term sentiment is temporarily stable, but the policy support still exists, and the spot demand on the fundamentals does not drive significantly. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,200 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term suspension expectation of the market is fermenting, and the uncertainty on the supply side will inject trading variables into the disk. Currently, the supply - demand balance is in line with expectations. The upstream operating rate changes little, and the supply remains sufficient. The demand performance is stable. Recently, the market sentiment and news - surface disturbances dominate the disk trend. The main contract price is expected to fluctuate widely around 67,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading without a position [13][14]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,350 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous value; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 10 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 1,474 yuan/ton, up 75.56 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 25 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 1,294 yuan/ton, up 39.9 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are 30 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC15 price is 20,150 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 are 20 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price is 267,600 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 premium is - 42.00 US dollars/ton, down 3.00 US dollars from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 470 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 is - 206 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2509 - 2510 are - 100 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the spot - futures spread is 235 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2509 - 2510 are - 60 yuan/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,950 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous value; the basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is 2,090 yuan/ton, down 1,810 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 400 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; in June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 521,600 tons, down 7.01% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - In July, the refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month. The galvanizing operating rate was 56.77%, down 2.65% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum - In July, the alumina output was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The aluminum profile operating rate was 50.00%, down 0.99% week - on - week [7]. Aluminum Alloy - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, down 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.60%, up 3.02% week - on - week [8]. Tin - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month. The SHEF inventory was 7,671 tons, up 3.42% week - on - week [9]. Nickel - The domestic refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory was 25,451 tons, up 0.69% week - on - week [10]. Stainless Steel - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output (43 manufacturers) was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 514,800 tons, down 0.20% week - on - week [11]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month. The total lithium carbonate inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - The path of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year remains unclear, inflation hasn't slowed due to tariffs, and employment is still weakening. Powell adopts a wait - and - see attitude towards the subsequent interest rate cut path. The result of Sino - US trade negotiations is an extension of 90 days, and the tariff result is yet to be further negotiated. The market's expectation of a 50% tariff on US electrolytic copper has failed, leading to a sharp decline in US copper prices and the end of the US - LME copper arbitrage. The upward momentum for non - US copper prices has ended. - During the traditional off - season, there is a stage of weak supply and demand. However, after the copper price drops, the spot trading improves marginally. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support. - Without a clear interest rate cut path and significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. After the failure of the US copper tariff, the non - US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. Copper pricing returns to macro trading, and it may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3900 yuan/ton, but the global mine output growth in May and the domestic mine output growth in June are both lower than expected. - With TC entering an upward cycle and smelting profits being continuously repaired, smelters are highly motivated to resume production, and the smelter operating rate is stronger than the seasonal level. The supply of the mine end is gradually transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined zinc output in July exceeded expectations. - The demand side is significantly suppressed by the rising disk price, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries are weak due to factors such as the rise and fall of ferrous metal prices and the off - season of demand. - The low spot premium and low inventory level provide price support, but the domestic social inventory may enter a replenishment cycle. In the short term, with the landing of domestic and foreign macro events, without substantial improvement in interest rate cut expectations and Sino - US economic macro expectations, the zinc price is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy - season barge transportation pressure, and the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory is at a historical low, which supports the short - term price rebound and reduces the basis. However, the impact of "anti - involution" on the alumina industry is minimal except for the emotional aspect. The recovery of production capacity and new production due to profit repair will jointly increase the spot supply, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3000 - 3400 in the short term. - For aluminum, yesterday's aluminum price remained volatile. In the off - season, the downstream procurement willingness is low, and the market discount continues to expand. The domestic consumption stimulus atmosphere is still strong, and the "anti - involution" has a certain supporting effect on the aluminum price, but the changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and tariff events bring great uncertainty to the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, and the decrease in the molten aluminum ratio drives the inventory to bottom out. The demand side is weak, with weak construction and real - estate completion, declining household appliance exports, and weakening orders after the end of photovoltaic installations. Only the demand for new - energy vehicle lightweighting remains resilient. In the face of the pressure of inventory replenishment expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, the aluminum price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract price in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 this month [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy disk price follows the aluminum price and fluctuates. The market trading is mainly for hedging by spot - futures traders to shrink the aluminum - aluminum alloy price difference, and the terminal trading is sluggish. The social inventory in the main consumption areas has increased significantly, and areas such as Ningbo and Foshan are close to full storage. - On the supply side, due to the off - season, the output of new scrap aluminum is limited. The import price is inverted, and Thailand has stopped issuing licenses to recycling factories, resulting in a shortage of scrap aluminum supply in the current market, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. - On the demand side, it is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season. The orders in the terminal automotive industry are weak, and downstream die - casting enterprises generally have a bearish outlook on the market, maintaining a low - inventory rigid procurement strategy and having a strong willingness to bargain. The weak demand situation will continue to suppress the upward momentum of the price. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,200 [8]. Tin - On the supply side, the actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee continues to be low. The domestic tin ore imports in June remained at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar is gradually advancing, and it is expected to start shipping around the end of August. - On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, the orders for photovoltaic tin strips in the East China region have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. The electronic consumption in the South China region has entered the off - season, and the operating rates of soldering enterprises have declined significantly. Considering the impact of the US tariff policy on trade and the weakening influence of domestic consumption stimulus policies, the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. - Attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply recovers smoothly, there is a large downward space for the tin price, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the weak data on the US employment and factory orders have increased the market's expectation of the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. In China, during the policy window period of the meeting, seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new - type industrialization. - At the industrial level, yesterday's spot price continued to rise, and the premiums of various brands remained stable. The ore price is mainly stable. Philippine mines are mostly in the shipping stage. The mainstream transaction price of 1.3% nickel ore is mostly around CIF42, and that of 1.4% nickel ore is mostly around CIF50. The domestic iron mills mostly maintain reduced - load production, and the supply of nickel ore still needs time to recover, so nickel iron still has cost support. The demand for stainless steel is still weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, and the terminal demand is relatively weak. In the new - energy sector, the downstream ternary materials have a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventory remains high, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories have increased. - In the short term, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals change little. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. It is expected that the disk will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [10]. Stainless Steel - Macroscopically, similar to nickel, the weak US data increases the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, and China has introduced relevant policies. - At the industrial level, the ore price is mainly stable. The market negotiation range has shifted upward, and the nickel - iron quotation has risen to 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold). Iron mills are operating at a loss and reducing production, and steel mills are mostly in a wait - and - see attitude in raw material procurement. The chromium - iron price is weakly stable, and there is still a small room for callback in the spot price due to the decline in the procurement price of chromium - iron steel mills. The supply of stainless - steel mills has decreased due to maintenance, but the production reduction is less than expected, and the short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce. The terminal demand remains weak, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, while the growth rate of the emerging downstream is generally expected to decline. Purchases are mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and although the bargaining space for traders has increased, the trading volume is still difficult to increase. The social inventory of stainless steel is slowly decreasing, and the warehouse receipts continue to decrease. - In the short term, the disk is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions. The short - term sentiment is temporarily stable, but the policy support still exists, and the spot demand on the fundamentals does not drive significantly. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy directions and supply - demand rhythms [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate disk rose overall. There was a lot of news about mine shutdowns, and the market's expectation of short - term production suspension has fermented. The mine - right approval is approaching the deadline, but the actual result has not been clearly determined. The uncertainty on the supply side will inject trading variables into the disk. - Fundamentally, the current supply - demand balance situation meets expectations. The upstream operating rate changes little, and although some production lines are under maintenance, the supply remains sufficient. The production data decreased last week, and the marginal growth rate of supply has slightly slowed down. The demand performance is stable, and the seasonal characteristics are fading. The battery cell orders are okay, and the material production scheduling data is more optimistic than the market expectation. However, due to the off - season and inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the actual demand has not been significantly boosted. - Recently, the market sentiment and news - related disturbances dominate the disk trend, and the trading core has shifted to the mine end. There are many matters to be verified in the news. The main price center is expected to fluctuate widely around 67,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see for unilateral trading without a position. Attention should be paid to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [13][14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.34% to 78,350 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 20.82% to 660 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 increased by 1.51 to - 49.25 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 120.22 to - 142 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio remained unchanged at 8.15 [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 remained unchanged at - 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; in June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. - The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton; the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 7.01% to 52.16 million tons. - The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 2.36 to 71.73%; the operating rate of recycled copper rod production increased by 1.98 to 29.29%. - The domestic social inventory increased by 12.97% to 13 million tons; the bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.34% to 8.11 million tons; the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.20% to 7.25 million tons. - The LME inventory increased by 1.48% to 15.61 million tons; the COMEX inventory increased by 0.39% to 26.22 million short tons; the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 96.18% to 2.03 million tons [1]. Zinc Price and Related Indicators - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 22,330 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss increased by 75.56 to - 1474 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio increased by 0.01 to 8.07 [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased by 130 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased by 145 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%; in June, the refined zinc import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the refined zinc export volume was 0.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. - The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 2.65 to 56.77%; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate decreased by 2.79 to 48.24%; the zinc oxide operating rate increased by 0.14 to 56.13%. - The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots increased by 3.47% to 10.73 million tons; the LME inventory decreased by 3.79% to 9.7 million tons [4]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.54% to 20,630 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss increased by 39.9 to - 1294 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio increased by 0.02 to 8.03. - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased by 15 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 19.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 1.96 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 million tons. - The aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 0.99% to 50.00%; the aluminum cable operating rate increased by 0.32% to 61.80%; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate remained unchanged at 63.20%; the aluminum foil operating rate decreased by 1.01% to 68.90%; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 1.11% to 54.60%. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.82% to 56.40 million tons; the LME inventory increased by 0.41% to 46.8 million tons [7]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC15, SMM East China ADC12, SMM South China ADC12, SMM Northeast ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,150 yuan/ton; the price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,300 yuan/ton. - The spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 25 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton;

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - In the short term, aluminum prices are still under pressure at high levels. The main contract price this month is expected to range from 20,000 - 21,000. In the future, it is necessary to focus on inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - It is expected that the aluminum alloy market will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to mainly fluctuate. The main reference range is 22,000 - 23,000 [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short term, the stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news have dominated the market trend. The main price center of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000. It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see for unilateral trading without a position. In the near future, attention should be paid to news increments and supply adjustments [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.25% to 78,675 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed different degrees of changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, electrolytic copper imports were 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.20% to 20,520 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.25% to 20,050 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.59% to 22,300 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, refined zinc imports were 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.45% to 267,000 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In June, domestic tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.54% to 121,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. There were also changes in inventory [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,000 yuan/ton; the spot - futures spread decreased by 14.29% to 210 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. There were also changes in imports, exports and inventory [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.21% to 71,200 yuan/ton; the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) increased by 81.40% to 3,900 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. There were also changes in inventory [19].