镍与不锈钢周报 驱动仍不足 2025年8月26日 宏源期货研究所 吴金恒 从业资格号：F03100418 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021125 电话：010-82293229 www.hongyuanqh.com 电解镍 ⚫ 策略:观望 ⚫ 运行区间：116000-126000 ⚫ 逻辑：供给端，镍矿价格持平，上周到港量增加，港口累库； 国内铁厂亏损幅度扩大，国内铁厂排产下降，印尼铁厂排产 小幅增加，镍铁小幅去库；国内精炼镍排产上升，出口盈利 缩小。需求端，三元材料排产上升，前驱体排产上升；不锈 钢厂排产上升；合金电镀需求稳定。库存端，上周纯镍社会 库存减少，保税区库存持平。综上，纯镍产量高位，供需偏 松，美联储降息预期反复，预计镍价区间震荡。 ⚫ 风险提示：美联储降息预期变化、需求改善超预期、印尼镍产业政策变化 不锈钢 ⚫ 运行区间：12500-13500 ⚫ 逻辑：基本面来看，不锈钢厂排产回升，不锈钢终端需求 一般。成本端支撑坚挺，镍生铁价格上涨，高碳铬铁价格 上涨。库存方面，总库存去库，300系去库。综上，产量 回升，需求一般，库存压力仍存，但不锈钢成本支撑坚挺， "反内卷"情绪影响仍在，预计不锈钢区间 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年8月26日 星期二 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79395 | 78830 | +565.00 | 0.72% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 140 | 150 | -10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 79255 | 78735 | +520.00 | 0.66% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79285 | 78710 | +575.00 | 0.73% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 30 | 30 | 0.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | JEET | 1084 | +467.24 | 43. ...

有色金属基础周报 主要品种观点综述 美联储降息预期增强 有色金属整体震荡偏强 2025-08-25 | | | 本周铜价维持横盘状态，价格波动进一步收敛。周末在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上鲍威尔放鸽，认为风险平衡转变，可能需要调整政策，强调就 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 业风险，为降息敞开大门，消息对铜价将有所提振；国内反内卷政策延续深化，相关品种继续得到支撑，给市场带来情绪化影响。基本面上，本 | | | | | 周国内铜库存小增但整体维持低位水平，LME铜库存累库，沪伦比止跌回稳，铜进口利润转正，进口陆续到货，叠加国产货源有所补充，市场流 | | | | 高位震荡偏强 | 动性得以增加。下游消费未见拐点，现货升水有所下滑，但铜价走跌推动下游企业入市逢低补库需求回升，部分市场到货量亦再度减少，社会库 | 区间交易 | | 铜 | 78500-79500 | 存重新下降。铜市场月底下游消费提升空间有限，同时进口铜到货仍有增量，供需市场矛盾点并不突出，现货升水回升仍面临压力。铜价仍偏于 | 或观望 | | | | 震荡。但从表观消费量来看绝对需求量并不低，体现出目前消费的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices are expected to trade in a range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the upside of copper prices, but the supply - demand contradiction in the medium - long term provides support. The short - term trading focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will affect the Fed's decision in September [1]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is expected to remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price oscillating between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and the 21,000 yuan/ton level is a key resistance [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand of the aluminum alloy market remains weak, with the main contract price expected to oscillate between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply and import of scrap aluminum [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are likely to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals do not strongly support a continuous rise in zinc prices, but low inventories provide support [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate [9]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is expected to have an interval adjustment in the short term, with the main contract price between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is weakening, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. The cost support is strengthening, but the spot demand is weak [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract price having strong support between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Although the market sentiment is weak, the fundamentals are in a tight balance [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 190 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased by 10.08% to 944 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week to 55.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,154 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased to - 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,644 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 13.59% week - on - week to 13.54 million tons [6]. Tin - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49%. The import profit and loss decreased to - 19,038.82 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 120,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The futures import profit and loss decreased to - 1,857 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import increased by 116.90% month - on - month to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped to 13,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased to 400 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.00% week - on - week to 49.65 million tons [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spreads**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 85,700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2509 - 2511 decreased to 40 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 93,958 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 97,846 tons [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment of a weakening US economy and commodity inflation restricts the space for interest rate cuts, suppressing the upside of copper prices. The short - term focus is on interest rate cut expectations. In the fundamental aspect, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions and long - term overcapacity coexist, and the price is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, macro factors provide some support, but the supply - demand structure is under pressure. The supply is stable with a slight increase, while the demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. The short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. As it enters the transition period from the off - peak to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import situation remains the same, the spot price may remain relatively firm, and the spread between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate of global mines in May and domestic mines in July is lower than expected. The supply at the smelting end is increasing, while the demand is in the seasonal off - peak period. Low global inventories support prices. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - The actual tin ore supply remains tight. If the supply recovery fails to meet expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels [9]. Nickel - The macro environment has increased expectations of more aggressive easing. The spot price is basically stable, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The stainless steel demand is weak, and the new energy downstream has low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is oscillating weakly. The export pressure has been temporarily alleviated, and the nickel iron price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is expected to increase, but the terminal demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract referring to 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is slightly adjusted, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short - term, while demand is showing a positive trend. The overall inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with the main contract fluctuating in the range of 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.38 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,289 yuan/ton, an improvement of 113.2 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum products have increased to varying degrees [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions. The scrap - to - refined price difference in some regions has changed, such as a 9.38% decrease in the scrap - to - refined price difference of Foshan crushed raw aluminum [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 625,000 tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 266,000 tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,728 yuan/ton, an improvement of 62.92 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 89 dollars/ton, up 41.27% from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remains stable at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,350 yuan/ton, up 6.82% from the previous day [10]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in July was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The forward - spot spread is 385 yuan/ton, up 24.19% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in July was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread remains stable at 2,300 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month. The total inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Macroscopically, the "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the space for interest - rate cuts, suppressing the upside potential of copper prices. The short - term focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will influence the Fed's decision in September. - Fundamentally, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. With "tight mine supply + resilient demand," there is support for prices. In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The price is expected to range between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions such as the crackdown on bauxite theft in Shanxi and the demonstration in Guinea have raised concerns, but mid - term production capacity is expected to increase, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. - For electrolytic aluminum, although there is some support from domestic consumption - stimulating policies and expectations of Fed rate cuts, the supply is stable with a slight increase, and demand is still in the off - season. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, with a focus on the 21,000 yuan/ton resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, as it enters the transition period from the off - season to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import price ratio remains the same, the supply of imported aluminum alloy ingots and scrap will be limited. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate in May globally and in July domestically fell short of expectations. The smelter's production enthusiasm is high, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. Demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to range between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - Supply of tin ore remains tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. Demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season. If supply recovers smoothly, short - selling opportunities may arise; otherwise, the price will remain high and volatile [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the US inflation pressure has eased, and the market expects more aggressive easing policies. Industrially, the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the price of ferronickel is rising, but there is still an oversupply pressure. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the downstream of the new energy sector has a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak, with low procurement enthusiasm from downstream enterprises. Although the export pressure has been alleviated, the terminal demand is still weak. The price of ferronickel is rising, and the supply of stainless steel is expected to increase in August. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short term, while demand is entering the peak season and is showing a positive trend. Although the actual demand has not significantly increased due to inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the overall market atmosphere is strong. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various types of copper decreased slightly, with the SMM 1 electrolytic copper at 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 3.59% to 1,020 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47%, and imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74%. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventories decreased by 10.01% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The import loss decreased by 113.2 yuan/ton to 1,289 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.41% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 30 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31%. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 2.03% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The import loss decreased by 62.92 yuan/ton to 1,728 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03%. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 13.59% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price was 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 41.27% to 89.00 dollars/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 to - 230. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remained unchanged at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 6.82% to 2,350 yuan/ton. - **Supply and Inventory**: In July, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 1.72% [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 1.00% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41%, and demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is currently at the bottom range and will continue to fluctuate. In the industry, refined nickel still has an oversupply situation. The nickel ore market is calm with a relatively loose supply. The price of nickel sulfate is weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season with weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Market Review - This part presents the historical price trends of the main contracts of domestic and foreign nickel futures from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price unit of yuan/ton [6][7] 3.2 Part 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Upstream: Chinese Nickel Ore Port Inventory - It shows the historical data of the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines to China, with the unit of tons [9][10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream: Electrolytic Nickel Price - Displays the price trends of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price unit of yuan/ton [12][13] 3.2.3 Mid - stream: Nickel Sulfate Price - Presents the average price trends of nickel sulfate in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price unit of yuan/ton [14][15] 3.2.4 Mid - stream: Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Shows the monthly import volume of ferronickel in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of tons, and the Fubao price trends of 8 - 12% ferronickel during the same period, with the price unit of yuan/nickel [16][17] 3.2.5 Downstream: Stainless - steel Price - Displays the closing price trends of stainless - steel futures (continuous) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price unit of yuan/ton [18][19] 3.2.6 Downstream: Stainless - steel Futures Position - Presents the position volume trends of stainless - steel futures from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of lots [20][21] 3.2.7 Downstream: Wuxi Stainless - steel Inventory - Shows the inventory trends of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of tons [22][23] 3.2.8 Downstream: Power and Energy - storage Battery Production - Displays the monthly production volume trends of power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and total power and energy - storage batteries in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of megawatt - hours [24][25] 3.2.9 Downstream: New - energy Vehicle Production - Presents the monthly production volume trends of new - energy vehicles in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the unit of 10,000 vehicles [27][28] 3.3 Part 3: Market Outlook - In the US, on the 12th local time, the US Department of Labor announced that the consumer price index (CPI) in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year. The core CPI in July increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than 2.9% in June and far above the Fed's 2% target; the month - on - month increase was 0.3%, the largest since January. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Wednesday that he believes there is a high probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 7.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92.1%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 3.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 41.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 55.2%. In China, on July 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, stating that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, and implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View Copper - In the short - term, copper prices are expected to range - bound between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Macro factors like US economic data and tariff policies, along with fundamental supply - demand and inventory conditions, will influence the price. The market is in a state of short - term supply - demand weakness during the off - season, but "tight mining end + demand resilience" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton this week. The market will experience a game between short - term supply disturbances and over - capacity. Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors include supply and demand fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,400 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as tight scrap aluminum supply and weak terminal demand [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Upward rebound requires continuous inventory reduction and improved interest - rate cut expectations without overseas economic recession. Downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and refined zinc inventory accumulation. The current supply - demand situation provides limited support for continuous price increase, but low inventory provides price support [9]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate. Supply is currently tight, and demand is expected to be weak [12]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward price space [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract operating range of 13,000 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Cost support is strengthening, but the weak spot demand restricts the fundamentals [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely in a relatively strong range, around 85,000 yuan/ton. The market is affected by short - term news, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider light - position long - entry at low prices [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 79,435 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.05%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 53.62 yuan/ton to 65TT yuan/ton, a decline of 4.54%. The import profit and loss increased by 119.85 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74% [1]. - The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 9.80 million tons to 61.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.79% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 20,710 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.24%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamentals - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.4 million tons to 58.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.26% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.22%. The import profit and loss increased by 80.61 yuan/ton to - 1,813 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamentals - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97% [9]. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 1.60 million tons to 12.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.13% [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 269,500 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.26%. The import profit and loss decreased by 717.98 yuan/ton to - 16,507.39 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamentals - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94% [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.36%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamentals - China's refined nickel production in the reference period decreased by 3,220 tons to 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume increased by 10,325 tons to 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.38%. The 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamentals - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) decreased by 6.83 million tons to 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83% [16]. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.65 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.23%. The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamentals - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62% [19]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in July decreased by 2,012 tons to 97,846 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [19].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The short - term prices of nickel industry chain products are showing a marginal recovery trend, but the fundamental situation of primary nickel surplus remains unchanged, and prices will be under pressure again after the macro - sentiment fades [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The trading sentiment of the US dollar easing expectation has cooled. China's financial data in July was weak, and the economic outlook remains sluggish. The main contract of Shanghai nickel (2509) fell 1.26% to 121,200 yuan/ton. The off - season characteristics of the spot market are still obvious, with supply exceeding demand and weak trading [8]. - The precipitation in the main production areas of the Philippines in the third quarter has limited impact, and shipments will remain at a high level. The approved quota of RKAB in Indonesia is as high as 310 million wet tons, so the supply of nickel ore is expected to increase, and the price is under downward pressure [8]. - Due to the short - term high price of nickel ore, most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. The NPI price continued to rise, reaching 924.5 yuan/nickel point on the 14th. Large stainless - steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [8]. - Supported by cost and rigid restocking of precursors, the price of nickel salts continued to rise. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate on the 14th was flat at 27,530 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Industry News - Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [9][10]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh, which is a step towards its goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and almost no silver, achieving similar efficiency with significantly reduced silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs [10]. - Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the UK power system and Scotland achieve its energy and emission reduction goals [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile market, influenced more by macro - emotions, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range and run relatively strongly in the near future, as the continuous stimulus of recent macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market to some extent, alleviating the previous pessimistic sentiment [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,020 yuan/ton and closed at 122,440 yuan/ton, a change of 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 96,355 lots, and the open interest was 73,889 lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly after a low - open in the night session, maintained a volatile trend after reaching a high and declined slightly. It maintained a strong volatile trend after the opening of the day session and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest continued to decrease slightly. The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong intention to hold prices, and downstream iron plants' pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium in August (Phase I) was mainly +24, flat month - on - month. The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 124,800 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum slowed down slightly. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, and spot trading did not improve. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,693 (- 30.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,746 (+450) tons [1] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly operate within the range for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,150 yuan/ton and closed at 13,200 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 130,429 lots, and the open interest was 143,674 lots. The main contract of stainless steel opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a volatile trend, continued the trend after the opening of the day session, and closed with a positive line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The market supply of stainless steel was in short supply, traders had a clear intention to hold prices, and with the continuous stimulus of macro - policy news, the spot price of stainless steel further increased. However, downstream buyers had a low acceptance of high - priced goods, resulting in intense market gaming and poor trading volume. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,250 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was also 13,250 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium or discount was 90 to 290 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 921.5 yuan/nickel point [2] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]