基建投资逐步放缓 公路项目相对偏弱 卓创资讯分析师 李海宁 [导语]"十五五"预计房地产市场投资逐步放缓，基建投资也将更加注重投资质量和投资效益，这两个方 向的投资变化也将导致沥青市场需求总量下滑，"十五五"时期沥青需求可能成为近三个五年计划的最低 水平。 根据卓创资讯预测，2025年国内消费量预计在3078.03万吨左右，较2024年增加187.63万吨，增幅 6.49%。预计"十五五"时期，沥青消费量明显下滑，未来5年的国内消费量均值在2705万吨，而"十三 五"时期五年均值为3179万吨，"十四五"时期五年均值预计为3142万吨，"十五五"可能是近三个五年计 划中国内消费水平最低的一个。当然随着道路建设的周期性变化，国内沥青需求可能呈现先降后增的趋 势。 沥青市场的两大下游分别是公路建设及防水方向市场需求，其中公路建设属于传统基建的主要组成部 分，公路建设投资与地方政府财政关联密切，防水市场需求则与房地产施工面积的多少直接强相关，因 此基建投资及房地产投资的变化情况会通过影响沥青需求向沥青价格方向传导。从房地产投资及公路方 向的基建投资来看"十五五"时期我国的房地产市场发展及基建投资预计都逐步从追求高速 ...

经济观察网 建筑建材行业进入结构调整深度转型期，2025年1-10月全国房地产开发投资同比下降 14.7%，10月全国建材家居经理人信心指数环比下跌61.68点，跌幅进一步扩大，行业大多企业面临增长 焦虑。而作为防水行业龙头东方雨虹（002271）却彰显发展韧性：2025 年第三季度单季营收同比逆势 增长8.51%，经营活动现金流净额同比激增 184.56%。这家企业在年度后两个月，通过渠道结构重塑、 闲置资产优化、全球化布局等筑牢发展根基，成为行业高质量发展的标杆。 渠道重构："零售+工程" 双轮驱动激活增长 过去依赖地产大客户的直销模式在行业调整期压力凸显，东方雨虹率先启动渠道变革，主动放弃了一些 地产大客户业务、施工业务等直销业务，确立 "零售优先、合伙人优先" 战略。从数据来看，2025 年上 半年公司工程与零售渠道收入合计 114.06 亿元，收入占比提升至 84.06%，直销业务占比则降至15%， 成功构建 "零售 + 工程" 双轮驱动格局。 一方面零售端持续发力，继去年营收突破 102.09 亿元成为行业首个零售破百亿企业后，2025 年上半年 零售收入占比进一步提升至 37.28%。通过 "虹 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - October domestic fixed asset investment data is under pressure, with a focus on companies benefiting from overseas business growth, such as Huaxin Cement, which saw a 76.01% year-on-year increase in net profit [6] - The cement price is marginally rising, while the decline in float glass prices is narrowing [2] - The real estate market remains under pressure, with significant year-on-year declines in new and second-hand housing transactions [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others benefiting from domestic demand recovery and tariff disruptions [6] - Companies in the waterproofing sector like Oriental Yuhong and Keshun Co. are recommended due to frequent price increases [6] - The solar glass sector is also highlighted, with companies like Qibin Group and Xinyi Solar expected to benefit from price adjustments [6] Cement Market Analysis - National cement prices increased by 0.3% week-on-week, with price rises mainly in Hebei, Fujian, Henan, Hunan, and Guangxi [2] - The average price of float glass decreased slightly, with a 0.16% decline [2] - The market for photovoltaic glass remains stable, with no significant changes in prices [2] Real Estate Market Insights - In the 46th week, new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.6452 million square meters, down 26% year-on-year [3] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 monitored cities showed a year-on-year decline of 8% [3] Company Performance Highlights - Huaxin Cement's net profit for the first three quarters reached 2.004 billion yuan, up 76.01% year-on-year, driven by overseas business growth [6] - Keda Manufacturing reported a 47.19% increase in revenue, with net profit rising by 63.49% [6] - The company Three Trees achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 81.2% year-on-year [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The overseas business continues to show strong growth, with companies like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing benefiting from this trend. Huaxin Cement reported a net profit of 2.004 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 76.01% [8] - Domestic demand expectations are rising, and the industry is experiencing price increases due to tariff disturbances and self-discipline in the market. Recommendations include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [8] - The waterproofing industry is seeing frequent price increases, indicating a turning point in industry revenue, with recommendations for companies like Oriental Yuhong and Keshun [8] - The special electronic cloth sector is experiencing high demand, with companies like China Jushi and China National Materials Technology benefiting from this trend [8] Summary by Sections Cement Market - National cement prices increased by 1% week-on-week, with price rises concentrated in regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Sichuan, ranging from 10 to 50 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of floating glass decreased by 3.30% to 1202.68 yuan/ton, with a narrowing decline [2][63] - The domestic market for photovoltaic glass is seeing a slight decline in prices, with 2.0mm coated panel prices at 12.5-13 yuan/square meter, down 1.92% [2][73] Real Estate Transactions - In the 44th week, new home transaction area in 30 major cities was 202.66 million square meters, down 40% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions in 15 monitored cities decreased by 22% [3][22] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, Keda Manufacturing, and others in the special electronic cloth sector like China Jushi and China National Materials Technology [8][9]

Summary of Dongfang Yuhong's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Dongfang Yuhong - **Industry**: Waterproofing, mortar, and coating industry Key Points Industry Performance - Despite weak industry demand, Dongfang Yuhong achieved growth with a 12% year-on-year increase in membrane sales and over 60% growth in powder sales, attributed to strategic adjustments in retail, engineering, and direct sales channels [2][3][4] - The company is benefiting from structural demand, particularly in key engineering and large industrial sectors, with expectations for the industrial segment to stabilize in the coming year [2][8] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Dongfang Yuhong reported an 8.5% revenue growth, ending a seven-quarter decline, with total revenue for the first three quarters at 20.6 billion yuan, down approximately 5% year-on-year [3][4] - The retail channel saw a revenue increase of 6% to 2.3 billion yuan, while the engineering channel's revenue was 9.76 billion yuan, showing a slight decline [4] - Direct sales revenue reached 1.1 billion yuan in Q3, achieving double-digit growth [4] Profitability and Cost Management - The company reduced sales and management expense ratios by 1-2 percentage points through efficiency improvements, although gross margins declined due to last year's price adjustments [5][6] - Gross margin for the engineering channel improved to 23% following a price increase, while the retail channel's gross margin slightly decreased to around 32% due to product structure changes and rebates [6] Cash Flow and Accounts Receivable - Dongfang Yuhong achieved positive operating cash flow for the first time in nearly a decade, indicating improved business quality through transformation efforts [7] - The company has seen significant improvements in cash flow and accounts receivable management, with a reduction in bad debt provisions due to increased property sale discounts [9][10] Market Strategy and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on small B clients and has made progress in transitioning from large real estate clients, with expectations for the industrial segment to stabilize in 2026 [8][11] - Future revenue growth is anticipated from domestic retail expansion, new product categories, and maturing overseas operations [8] Overseas Expansion - Dongfang Yuhong is actively expanding in overseas markets, particularly in North America, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America, with a goal to increase overseas revenue share by 5 percentage points annually over the next five years [3][24][28] - The company is investing in local factories to enhance supply chain efficiency and reduce costs in international markets [25][26] Competitive Landscape - The waterproofing industry remains fragmented with many small players, but Dongfang Yuhong has increased its market share to an estimated 25-30% due to the exit of numerous competitors [18][19] - The company maintains a cost advantage of 10-15% over other large enterprises and higher compliance costs for small businesses, which do not provide a true cost advantage [19] Asset Management - The company holds approximately 2 billion yuan in real estate assets, with a significant portion classified under accounts receivable [20][22] - Bad debt provisions have increased due to higher property sale discounts, but future stabilization in property prices may reduce impairment amounts [9][10] Conclusion - Dongfang Yuhong's strategic adjustments and focus on structural demand have positioned the company for potential growth despite industry challenges, with a strong emphasis on improving cash flow, profitability, and expanding its international presence [2][8][25]

Summary of North New Building Materials Conference Call Industry Overview - The gypsum board industry is facing challenges due to macroeconomic downturns and a 18.9% decrease in new construction area, leading to reduced demand and price pressure [2][3][4] - Customers are shifting towards more cost-effective alternatives, further impacting prices [2][3] - Increased competition from foreign brands and cross-industry entrants has intensified pressure in the low-end market [2][3] Company Performance and Strategies - North New Building Materials has seen a doubling in sales of its home decoration product series (e.g., Longpan Guochao series, Taishan series) in the retail and rural markets from January to September, which is expected to drive overall volume and price increases [2][4] - The company is optimistic about a price increase for gypsum boards in 2026, supported by signs of rational recovery in the industry as small and high-end brands begin to raise prices [2][4] - The company is investing in technological innovations, such as the TF version and its derivatives, to enhance product attributes and replace other materials [2][4] - A new 2000 square meter production line is under construction, expected to release 20 million square meters of capacity, significantly improving pricing and profit margins [2][4] Financial Performance - The waterproof business has achieved positive revenue and profit growth despite adverse external conditions, benefiting from the company's strong capabilities and future development certainty [5][6] - Beijing Jiaboli's net profit exceeded 300 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by market share pursuit, cost reduction, and improved operational quality [5][6] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue internal development while pursuing external expansion in the waterproof and coating sectors, targeting large-scale acquisitions in the construction coating market and focusing on niche areas like automotive and marine coatings [5][6][8] - North New Building Materials is actively pursuing globalization, focusing on greenfield projects in Southeast Asia and Africa, while using acquisitions in developed markets [8][9] Market Dynamics - The company is addressing the competitive landscape by simplifying competition and enhancing product differentiation, particularly in strategic locations [13][23] - The company aims to expand the gypsum board market by introducing new applications and products, such as fire-resistant applications, to increase market capacity [23][24] Challenges and Responses - The company acknowledges challenges in the gypsum board sector, including price pressure and competition, and is implementing measures to enhance internal collaboration and optimize production layouts [15][18] - North New Building Materials is committed to maintaining a balanced growth strategy, focusing on value-driven operations rather than just scale [12] Conclusion - North New Building Materials is navigating a challenging market environment with strategic innovations, a focus on quality, and a commitment to expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally. The company is optimistic about future price increases and growth opportunities in various segments, including waterproofing and coatings.

Summary of Dongfang Yuhong Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Dongfang Yuhong - **Industry**: Waterproofing materials within the construction materials sector Key Points and Arguments Industry Dynamics - The waterproofing industry has experienced a significant supply-side clearing, primarily due to the implementation of new waterproofing regulations and the collective procurement model during the real estate bubble, which led to excessive investments and pressure on balance sheets and cash flows [2][4][5] - The industry is expected to transition into an oligopoly, with leading companies like Dongfang Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, and Keshun Holdings controlling approximately 40% of the market share [2][6][7] Company Performance - Dongfang Yuhong has increased its market share to 22% as of 2024, positioning itself as a leader in the industry [2][5][8] - The company has implemented price increases since early 2025, which have been followed by other leading firms, contributing to improved profit margins [6][9] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with projections indicating that operational profits could exceed 2 billion in 2025, and potentially reach between 2.5 billion to 3 billion in 2026 due to overseas expansion [13] Future Growth Potential - Dongfang Yuhong has significant growth potential through optimizing product structure, enhancing service quality, and adjusting pricing strategies [2][8] - The company is focusing on channel transformation, with retail channels accounting for 36% of total sales, and plans to expand its special mortar business, which currently contributes over 15% to total revenue [10][12] - The anticipated recovery in the waterproofing industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, similar to trends observed in the cement industry [9] Strategic Initiatives - Future strategies include enhancing the proportion of engineering and retail channels, which currently make up 70%-80% of total sales [11] - The company plans to expand its product categories, including special mortars and construction sealants, and is actively pursuing overseas market opportunities, such as the acquisition of a Chilean building materials retail supermarket [12] Market Outlook - The overall market for waterproofing materials is expected to stabilize and gradually recover over the next two years, with leading companies likely to benefit from collaborative price increases [7][9] Additional Important Insights - The competitive landscape is shifting, making it increasingly difficult for smaller companies to gain market share, thereby solidifying the position of leading firms like Dongfang Yuhong [7][8] - The company’s resilience and strategic adjustments have positioned it favorably to navigate the current market challenges and capitalize on future opportunities [10][13]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate policy continues to optimize, and expectations for domestic demand are strengthening. The focus is on sectors such as waterproofing, cement, and float glass, which are expected to benefit significantly from improved cash flow and are currently at the bottom of the industry cycle [4][5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the construction materials sector is 5249.34, with a 52-week high of 5355.99 and a low of 3519.19 [1] Cement Sector - The cement industry is entering its peak season, with overall demand showing a slow recovery. In August 2025, the monthly cement production was 148 million tons, down 6.2% year-on-year. The industry is expected to see a decline in capacity under the anti-overproduction policy, leading to a significant increase in capacity utilization [5][10] Glass Sector - The glass industry is experiencing a downward trend in demand due to real estate impacts, with supply and demand still in conflict. The report anticipates that the anti-overproduction policy will not lead to a drastic capacity reduction but will raise environmental standards and costs, accelerating the industry's maintenance progress [5][15] Fiberglass Sector - The fiberglass sector is driven by demand from the AI industry, with low dielectric products experiencing a surge in both volume and price. The report expects a continued upward trend in demand alongside AI developments [5] Consumer Building Materials - The profitability of the consumer building materials sector has reached a bottom, with no further downward price pressure. The industry is seeing a strong demand for price increases, particularly in waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards, with expectations for improved profitability in the second half of the year [6][7] Market Performance - In the past week (September 15-21), the construction materials sector index increased by 0.43%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.30%. The construction materials sector ranked 12th in performance among 31 first-level sub-industry indices [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext index initially dropping over 1% but recovering in the afternoon, leading to a positive close. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.45%, and the ChiNext index gained 0.68% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Strong performances were noted in sectors such as robotics, internet e-commerce, and logistics, while sectors like pork, non-ferrous metals, and film and television saw declines [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - CITIC Securities indicated that the price of waterproof products in China is stabilizing under the "anti-involution" trend, with a positive outlook for the waterproof sector due to its correlation with construction activity and increased industry concentration [1] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) projected that the ethylene industry may reach a turning point after 2027, driven by the exit of overseas capacities and potential domestic policy controls on new ethylene production [2] - Galaxy Securities highlighted that the building materials industry will deepen its reforms, focusing on structural optimization, green transformation, digital upgrades, and international expansion, with cement industry capacity reduction expected to accelerate [3] - The demand for high-end fiberglass products is anticipated to grow due to the rapid development of emerging industries, benefiting companies with R&D capabilities and production scale [3] - Leading consumer building materials companies are leveraging both domestic and international markets to enhance profitability and expand overseas production capacity, which is expected to contribute significantly to future performance growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Feilu Co., Ltd. is advancing its control change through a private placement of shares to Xiangguang Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. at a price of 8.08 yuan per share, aiming to raise no more than 323.2 million yuan for working capital [1][2] Group 1: Share Issuance and Control Change - The company plans to issue shares to Xiangguang Intelligent, which will hold 11 million shares (5.02% of total shares) and have voting rights of 18.71% after the agreement takes effect [1] - Following the completion of the share transfer and private placement, Xiangguang Intelligent's stake in Feilu Co., Ltd. will increase to between 17.14% and 19.70% of the total share capital, solidifying control and stabilizing the company's equity structure [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Business Development - In the first half of the year, Feilu Co., Ltd. reported a 60.63% year-on-year increase in revenue, particularly in its anti-corrosion business, which has secured several key projects in the rail transit sector [2] - The waterproof business has also seen significant growth, with a 115% increase in total bid amounts compared to the same period last year, reinforcing its market position in both rail transit and water conservancy sectors [2] - The company aims to leverage Xiangguang Intelligent's market and strategic resources to accelerate new product development and market expansion while enhancing internal management and operational efficiency [2]