Core Viewpoint - Wanhua Chemical has achieved a significant technological breakthrough in high-refractive polycarbonate (PC) materials, marking a milestone in domestic production capabilities and aiming to break foreign monopolies in this sector [3][5]. Group 1: Technological Breakthroughs - The collaboration between Wanhua Chemical, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, and Hikvision has led to the establishment of a national key laboratory for high-performance organic optical polymers, resulting in the development of a complete manufacturing technology for high-refractive PC [3]. - The newly developed high-refractive PC has a refractive index exceeding 1.64, a light transmittance of at least 89%, and a glass transition temperature of at least 145°C, addressing traditional PC's limitations [5]. - This marks the first time in China that a 1500 tons/year industrialization of high-refractive PC technology has been achieved, with initial product indicators reaching international advanced levels [3][5]. Group 2: Market Context and Industry Dynamics - The global high-refractive PC market has been dominated by companies like Mitsubishi and Teijin, prompting Wanhua Chemical to innovate and develop new synthesis processes that do not use phosgene or organic solvents [5]. - The domestic PC industry has seen a compound annual growth rate of 20% over the past five years, with China's PC production capacity now accounting for over 40% of the global total [6]. - Despite the growth, the industry faces structural overcapacity and a significant demand gap for high-end products, with an annual shortfall of over 800,000 tons [7][8]. Group 3: Future Trends and Developments - The industry is shifting towards high-end, differentiated, and green PC materials to meet the evolving demands of downstream industries and sustainability trends [8]. - Recent advancements include the development of high-viscosity PC materials suitable for aerospace applications and the introduction of bio-based PC materials that combine the toughness of PC with the optical properties of PMMA [9][10]. - The ongoing innovation in the PC sector indicates substantial room for growth and improvement, particularly in addressing the imbalance between supply and demand for high-end applications [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market shows a pattern of weak current situation but strong expectations. It is expected to oscillate in a relatively strong manner. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream production after the Spring Festival [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region continued to drop by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08% on a month-on-month basis, remaining at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the average operating rate of PVC downstream industries rebounded by 17.11 percentage points to 17.11%, but was 6.34 percentage points lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, downstream industries have not fully resumed production. Export orders increased slightly after the festival, but most export enterprises have completed their March pre-sales. With the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1st, PVC export orders are expected to be low in March. Additionally, India has launched an anti-subsidy tax investigation, leading to a decline in PVC export expectations. Social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to rise last week, remaining at a relatively high level with significant inventory pressure. In 2025, the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased on a month-on-month basis, and the housing market was sluggish during the Spring Festival. The real estate market needs more time to improve. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor-alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have declined, but the current output reduction is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in position and oscillated. The lowest price was 4,927 yuan/ton, the highest was 5,099 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 5,016 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.93%. The position increased by 12,576 lots to 1,078,460 lots [2] - On March 5th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China region rose to 4,870 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2605 contract futures was 5,016 yuan/ton. The current basis was -146 yuan/ton, strengthening by 49 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08% on a month-on-month basis, remaining at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons, and Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons, were put into operation in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. From January to December, the commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. From January to December, the new housing construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; among them, the new residential construction area was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. From January to December, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%. From January to December, the housing completion area was 603.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%; among them, the residential completion area was 428.3 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. The overall real estate market needs more time to improve. As of the week of February 22nd, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 92.37% on a month-on-month basis. The housing market was sluggish during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to whether post-festival real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of February 27th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.71% to 1.353 million tons on a month-on-month basis, 58.02% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to rise this week, remaining at a relatively high level (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6]

Report Overview - The report is a methanol polyolefin morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on March 5, 2026 [1] Methanol Price Data - From February 26 to March 4, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The prices of江苏现货, 华南现货, 鲁南折盘面, 西南折盘面, 河北折盘面, 西北折盘面, CFR中国, and CFR东南亚 showed various changes. For example, the江苏 spot price increased from 2200 on February 26 to 2450 on March 4, with a daily change of -65 on March 4 compared to the previous day [2] Key Figures - The import profit,主力基差, and 盘面MTO利润 on March 4 were -31, -33, and -1106 respectively, with daily changes of 0, -23, and 0 respectively [2] Plastic Price Data - From February 26 to March 4, 2026, the price of东北亚乙烯 increased from 700 to 780. The prices of华北LL, 华东LL, 华东LD, and 华东HD also showed an upward trend. For example, the华东LL price increased from 6825 on February 26 to 7425 on March 4, with a daily change of 100 on March 4 compared to the previous day [12] Key Figures - The进口利润, 主力期货, 基差, 两油库存, and 仓单 on March 4 were -68, 7355, -120, 87, and 8950 respectively, with daily changes of 0, 155, 30, 0, and -60 respectively [12] PVC Price Data - From February 26 to March 4, 2026, the price of西北电石 decreased from 2300 to 2100. The prices of电石法 - 华东, 电石法 - 华南, and 电石法 - 西北 showed some fluctuations. For example, the电石法 - 华东 price increased from 4730 on February 26 to 4810 on March 4, with a daily change of 20 on March 4 compared to the previous day [20] Key Figures - The进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained at 720 from February 26 to March 4. The西北综合利润 and 华北综合利润 remained at 356 and -244 respectively. The基差 (高端交割品) remained at -180 [20] Market Analysis - The V基差 was -330, a 10-point increase from the previous period. This week's trading volume was average. The FOB price of the ethylene method was 575, and that of the calcium carbide method was 570, and the sustainability needs further observation. The price of coal was 600 (unchanged), and the price of semi - coke was 820 (unchanged). The profit of semi - coke was poor, and the profit of calcium carbide was also poor. The ex - factory price of Shandong's spot was 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali was around - 600. The prices of ethylene and calcium carbide remained stable [21] - The upstream prices remained stable this week, with an operating rate of 79.7%, a 1.1% increase from the previous period. This week, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 79.7%, a 1.3% increase from the previous period, and that of the ethylene method was 79.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. Downstream demand remained stable [21] - The upstream factory inventory was 30.9 (an increase of 0.4w from the previous period), the PVC social inventory was 111.4w (an increase of 5w from the previous period), the inventory in East China was 106 (an increase of 5w from the previous period), and the inventory in South China was 5.4w (unchanged from the previous period). The total inventory level was still moderately high, and exports remained unchanged compared to the previous period [21] - Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is relatively low. There is a short - term seasonal recovery in the operating rate. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of downstream enterprises. Overall, the export volume this year is relatively large. The sustainability of subsequent exports needs to be observed. In the long run, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets remains weak. In general, the medium - and long - term outlook for PVC remains poor [21]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **caprolactam** industry, specifically focusing on **hexamethylenediamine (HMD)** and its supply-demand dynamics in China, highlighting the transition towards domestic production and the competitive landscape involving major players like **Invista** and **China National Chemical Corporation (ChemChina)** [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Domestic Production Milestones**: 2021 marked a turning point for domestic HMD production, with Invista's 400,000-ton facility in Shanghai operating smoothly and ChemChina's 200,000-ton capacity achieving around 60% operational efficiency [1]. - **Cost Disparities**: ChemChina's cost per ton is approximately **3,200-3,300 RMB**, primarily due to inferior catalyst performance leading to higher material losses. If operational loads increase to 90% by 2026, this cost disadvantage could narrow to **1,500 RMB** [1][2]. - **Market Transition**: The industry's focus is shifting from production capacity to sales management, with ChemChina needing to address inventory pressures through exports and strategic customer acquisition [1]. - **Technical Bottlenecks**: The stability of PA66 civilian-grade polymerization remains a bottleneck, with Invista holding a monopoly on the technology. Domestic penetration in civilian applications is only **10%**, compared to **70%** for PA6, indicating significant growth potential if technological breakthroughs occur [1]. - **Overcapacity Warning**: The industry faces warnings of overcapacity, with Invista maintaining strong pricing power due to quality premiums. New entrants like **New and Ever** and **Yongrong** could trigger price wars, particularly affecting high-cost production routes [1]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment and Operational Focus**: ChemChina plans to cease large-scale capital expenditures starting in 2026, having previously invested **30 billion RMB** over four years. The focus will shift to increasing operational loads above **80%** [2]. - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The domestic supply chain for nylon 66 has historically been constrained by upstream supply issues, particularly in HMD and its raw materials. Price volatility from 2017 to 2019 hindered the development of nylon 66 applications, with demand growth averaging less than **5%** annually until 2021 [3]. - **Production Challenges**: ChemChina's facility has struggled with stable long-term operations due to issues in the separation process and catalyst performance, impacting production hours significantly [5][6]. - **Byproduct Management**: The industry faces challenges in managing byproducts, particularly dimethylpentane, with varying conversion rates and disposal methods across companies. ChemChina's conversion rate is around **14%**, expected to drop to **8-9%** after catalyst upgrades [6]. - **Future Production Goals**: ChemChina aims to increase operational loads to **80%** or higher by 2026, enhance external sales, and address high catalyst consumption to lower production costs [7][8]. - **Market Pricing Trends**: Invista's pricing for HMD has remained stable, with fluctuations between **18,200-18,300 RMB/ton**. The pricing strategy is influenced by external factors, including crude oil prices and market demand [10][11]. - **Downstream Demand Structure**: The demand for PA66 is shifting, with engineering plastics seeing a decline in demand due to the transition to electric vehicles. The growth potential lies in civilian applications, which currently face significant technological barriers [12][13]. - **Cost Improvement Strategies**: Companies are encouraged to focus on production scale and operational efficiency rather than relying solely on raw material cost reductions, as the latter is limited by market conditions [15]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the evolving landscape of the caprolactam industry in China, emphasizing the importance of technological advancements, cost management, and strategic market positioning to navigate potential overcapacity and competitive pressures. The focus for companies like ChemChina will be on improving operational efficiency and addressing market demand challenges in the coming years [17][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the domestic methanol market has increased recently, with the output rising as the loss of production capacity from domestic methanol overhauls and cut - backs is less than the output from restored production capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises has slightly increased, and port inventory has basically remained stable, showing accumulation in East China and destocking in South China. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will decline next week, and the demand may continue to recover. It is recommended to wait and see due to large short - term price fluctuations affected by the Middle East situation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,553 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 119 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 802,920 lots, down 139,737 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 129,444 lots, down 33,355 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,931, unchanged [3]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,450 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1,960 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The East - West price difference is 490 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 107 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. The CFR price at the Chinese main port is 297 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 330 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 328 euros/ton, up 28 euros. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 33 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.04 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.06 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0442 million tons, down 500 tons; at South China ports, it is 402,500 tons, up 15,000 tons. The import profit of methanol is 18.39 yuan/ton, up 50.8 yuan. The monthly import volume is 1.734 million tons, up 316,400 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 535,300 tons, up 195,000 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 92.8%, up 0.73 percentage points [3]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 14.7%, up 2.65 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 3.33%, down 1.06 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 84.11%, down 0.49 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 67.22%, down 0.65 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 84.08%, unchanged. The MTO disk profit is - 953 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 48.32%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 37.89%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 51.43%, up 14.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 51.46%, up 14.38 percentage points [3]. Industry News - As of March 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 552,400 tons, up 17,100 tons, a 3.19% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 295,200 tons, up 85,500 tons, a 104.91% increase. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol is 1.4435 million tons, down 3,200 tons. East China has accumulated inventory, up 24,200 tons; South China has destocked, down 27,400 tons. As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.32%, up 1.86 percentage points [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is neutral [3]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC show high开工 rates, significant inventory accumulation despite near - term export rush, and low overall valuation. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the chemical products perform well, and PVC is also influenced by the overall sentiment and rising ethylene prices. However, the conflict has led to increased shipping costs and more export order cancellations, and exports to the Middle East are also affected. Short - selling should wait for the release of macro - economic sentiment [3]. - The 05 contract has become the near - term contract, and the 5 - 9 spread shows a reverse arbitrage pattern [3]. - The raw material support is neutral. The calcium carbide开工 rate has declined, with the price in Wuhai at 2,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan compared to before the holiday. The semi - coke medium - sized material is reported at 725 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The ethylene price has increased by 40 US dollars to 751 US dollars/ton [3]. - The supply is neutral - bearish. The domestic PVC开工 rate has rebounded. The overall PVC powder开工 rate is 81.35%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points. Among them, the calcium carbide - based PVC powder开工 rate is 81.77%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points, and the ethylene - based PVC powder开工 rate is 80.40%, a month - on - month increase of 1.53 percentage points [3][17]. - The demand is neutral - bearish. The pipe开工 rate is 13.6%, and the profile开工 rate is 11.30%. The开工 rate has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival. The conflict has led to increased shipping costs and more order cancellations in exports, and the industrial chain has seen significant inventory accumulation [3]. - The profit is neutral - bullish. The single - PVC profit is at a low level, and the comprehensive profit has slightly improved. The calcium carbide integrated profit per ton is - 749 yuan, the Shandong calcium carbide - purchased method profit per ton is - 873 yuan, and the East China ethylene - based profit is 311 yuan/ton. The Northwest comprehensive profit is - 340 yuan/ton, the North China comprehensive profit is - 805 yuan/ton, and the double - ton spread is 2,758 yuan [3]. - Under the background of geopolitical conflicts, the energy and chemical sectors are strong, and the PVC industry, as a part of the chemical sector, is also affected [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Materials - **Semi - coke**: The开工 rate of semi - coke has declined. The sample enterprise开工 rate is 54.62%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points compared to the previous period. The price is stable, with the Shenmu medium - sized material reported at 725 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [5][6]. - **Calcium carbide**: The calcium carbide supply has decreased slightly, and the price has weakened. The calcium carbide price in Wuhai is 2,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan compared to last week. The calcium carbide开工 rate has decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 75.65%, and the overall开工 rate is at a relatively low level [7][11][13]. 3.2 PVC开工 - The weekly PVC开工 rate has rebounded. The overall PVC powder开工 rate this week is 81.35%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points. Among them, the calcium carbide - based PVC powder开工 rate is 81.77%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points, and the ethylene - based PVC powder开工 rate is 80.40%, a month - on - month increase of 1.53 percentage points [15][17]. 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - The downstream开工 rate has recovered from a low level. The pipe开工 rate is 13.6%, and the profile开工 rate is 11.30%. The开工 rate has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival [24][29]. 3.4 PVC Inventory - There has been significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The social inventory has increased to 120.1 million tons, an increase of 9.17 million tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the East China sample inventory is 114.7 million tons, an increase of 8.75 million tons, and the South China sample inventory is 5.37 million tons, an increase of 0.42 million tons. The upstream factory inventory has also significantly increased to 48.29 million tons, an increase of 22.07 million tons compared to the previous period. The industrial chain inventory has seen significant accumulation [32][36][37]. 3.5 PVC Profit - The calcium carbide - based method has suffered serious losses. The Xinjiang integrated profit is - 749 yuan/ton, and the Northwest integrated profit is - 1,212 yuan. The loss of the calcium carbide - purchased method has narrowed, with the Northwest calcium carbide - purchased method profit per ton at - 370 yuan and the North China calcium carbide - purchased method profit at - 873 yuan/ton [39][49]. - The ethylene - based method profit has weakened. The East China ethylene - based profit is 311 yuan/ton, and the North China ethylene - based profit is 461 yuan/ton. The rising ethylene price has compressed the profit [50][52]. - The comprehensive profit is weak, and the double - ton spread has rebounded from a low level. The Northwest comprehensive profit is - 340 yuan/ton, and the Shandong comprehensive profit is - 805 yuan/ton. The double - ton spread has rebounded to 2,758 yuan/ton [55][59]. 3.6 Import and Export - In 2025, exports were good, and attention should be paid to the situation of export rush. From January to December, the year - on - year export volume increased. The annual PVC powder export volume was 3.823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.05%. In December, the export volume was 314,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38,800 tons. From January to December, the PVC powder import volume was 226,600 tons, basically the same as last year [61][64][65]. - The floor export volume has declined. From January to December, the cumulative floor export volume was 4.155 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [66][70]. 3.7 Related Commodities - The cement demand has shown average performance. Since 2024, the real estate demand has continued to weaken, the cement price has declined, and the开工 rate has been at a low level [73][75]. 3.8 Futures - Spot Analysis - The main contract has strengthened, the spread between contracts has increased in volatility, and the warehouse receipts have been continuously cancelled. The 05 contract has decreased from 4,948 last week to 4,939. The 5 - 9 spread is - 132. On March 2, the warehouse receipt volume was 82,980, a decrease of 11,960 compared to last week [78][82]. 3.9 PVC Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet shows the production, demand, import, export, and surplus of PVC from 2026/1 to 2026/12, as well as the year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and demand [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report focuses on the lithium carbonate market, with the title indicating that the current situation is mainly affected by emotional factors, and attention should be paid to the bottom support [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The 2605 contract's closing price was 150,860, down 21,160 from T - 1; the 2607 contract's closing price was 151,380, down 21,420 from T - 1. The 2605 contract's trading volume was 445,115, and the 2607 contract's trading volume was 64,513. The 2605 contract's open interest was 339,604, and the 2607 contract's open interest was 99,718 [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 37,755, down 441 from T - 1 [2] - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2605 contract was 10,140; the basis between 2605 and 2607 contracts was -520 [2] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,220, down 140 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 5,350, down 175 from T - 1 [2] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 161,000, down 11,500 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 157,500, down 11,500 from T - 1 [2] - **Related Products**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 56,205, down 2,785 from T - 1; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 190,500, down 3,750 from T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Automobile Subsidy Policy**: The Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued the "Implementation Guidelines for the 2026 Automobile Replacement and Upgrade Subsidy in Shenzhen". For individuals who transfer their registered passenger cars and purchase new - energy passenger cars in the "Catalogue of New - energy Vehicle Models Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax" or fuel - powered passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less, one - time subsidies are provided. For new - energy passenger cars, an 8% subsidy of the new car's selling price is given, with a maximum of 15,000 yuan; for fuel - powered passenger cars, a 6% subsidy of the new car's selling price is given, with a maximum of 13,000 yuan [3][4] - **Company Project News**: Yongtai Technology plans to invest 500 million yuan to build a 200,000 - ton lithium - battery electrolyte project in Binhai Coastal Industrial Park. At the same time, the company cancelled the construction of a 200,000 - ton electrolyte and related materials and by - product recycling project of its subsidiary, Shaowu Yongtai High - tech Materials Co., Ltd [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the military strikes between the US, Israel and Iran, with the Iranian Supreme Leader and multiple officials killed and Iran launching a counter - attack, there is an obvious short - term macro drive. The overall methanol enterprise operation rate in Iran is currently around 30%, and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, causing short - term import shipments to stagnate. It is expected that the imported methanol arriving in March will fall short of expectations, which will support the spot and futures prices of port methanol and also drive up the inland market. It is predicted that the domestic methanol market will rise in the short term, with a price increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton for inland resale during the weekend, but the market has prices but no transactions. Continuous attention should be paid to the dynamics of ports and plants in the Iranian region and the actual follow - up of downstream buyers [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has a significant impact on the methanol market. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the low operation rate of Iranian methanol plants will lead to an expected shortfall in imports in March, supporting the rise in methanol prices in the domestic market [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - The prices of methanol in different domestic regions showed different trends from February 13th to February 28th. For example, the price in Jiangsu increased by 0.09%, that in Hebei increased by 0.97%, while that in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.41% [6]. 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - From February 13th to February 28th, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu increased by 0.09%, the futures price increased by 1.01%, and the basis changed from 17 yuan/ton on February 13th to - 3 yuan/ton on February 28th, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 8 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit increased by 323 yuan/ton from February 13th to February 28th [11]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% from last week to 74.90%, and the load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [13]. 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From February 13th to February 28th, the CFR China price increased by 1.54%, the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 0.31%, and the spread between them changed from - 62.5 dollars/ton to - 59.5 dollars/ton [16]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From February 13th to February 28th, the domestic methanol spot price increased by 0.09%, the import cost increased by 1.24%, and the import spread decreased by 26 yuan/ton [19]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from February 13th to February 28th [26]. 3.2.8 Methanol Traditional Downstream Production Profits and Loads - Formaldehyde production profit decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.01%; dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 28 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.45%; acetic acid production profit decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and the load decreased by 1.29% [27][29][34]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - MTO production profit decreased by 6 yuan/ton, and the load in East China increased by 2.16%, while that in South China increased by 1.10% [38][39]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - The inventory in East China ports increased by 2.16, and that in South China ports increased by 1.10 [39]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From February 13th to February 27th, the number of methanol warehouse receipts decreased by 10.16%, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged [43]. 3.3 Maintenance Status - Many domestic and foreign methanol plants are under maintenance or have production issues. For example, in the domestic market, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao and other plants are under maintenance; in the international market, some Iranian and other plants are in the process of restarting or have low - operation - rate situations [45][46]. 3.4 Views and Strategies - It is expected that the domestic methanol market will rise in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the military conflict on ports and plants in the Iranian region and the actual follow - up of downstream buyers [5].

Group 1: Methanol - The report provides daily data from February 24 to March 2, 2026, including power coal futures, spot prices in different regions, CFR prices, import profit, main contract basis, and MTO profit [2] - The daily changes on March 2, 2026, show that power coal futures remained unchanged, while most spot prices increased, with the largest increase of 163 in some regions [2] Group 2: Plastic - It presents daily data from February 24 to March 2, 2026, including Northeast Asian ethylene, prices of different types of plastics in various regions, import profit, main contract futures, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts [11] - On March 2, 2026, the daily changes indicate that most prices increased, with the largest increase of 370 in Northeast LL price, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 85 [11] Group 3: PVC - The report offers daily data from February 24 to March 2, 2026, on Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, prices of different production methods in different regions, import US dollar price, export profit, comprehensive profits in Northwest and North China, and basis [19] - The daily changes on March 2, 2026, show a decrease of 50 in Northwest calcium carbide price and an increase of 50 in East China calcium - carbide method price [19][20] - The V basis is - 330, a week - on - week increase of 10. This week's trading volume is average. The upstream is stable this week with an operating rate of 79.7%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1%. The calcium - carbide method operating rate is 79.7%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%, and the ethylene method is 79.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. The upstream factory inventory is 30.9 (in ten thousand units), a week - on - week increase of 0.4, and the PVC social inventory is 111.4 (in ten thousand units), a week - on - week increase of 5. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and exports are flat week - on - week. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low, with short - term seasonal operating rate recovery. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking. Overall, this year's export volume is relatively large, and the subsequent export sustainability should be observed. In the long - term, the new construction demand in the domestic and foreign real estate markets is still weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the expected pattern of PVC is still poor [20]

Group 1 - Qatar Energy, the world's largest LNG producer, announced a suspension of LNG production due to drone attacks on its facilities by Iran, leading to a 50% surge in European gas prices, the largest increase since March 2022 [2] - The European chemical industry is facing severe challenges, with the Cefic report indicating a sixfold increase in production capacity closures from 2022 to 2025, totaling 37 million tons, with Germany accounting for 8.8 million tons, or 25% of the total closures [2] - Major European chemical companies are implementing aggressive downsizing plans, including layoffs and plant closures, in response to the crisis [2] Group 2 - BASF plans to accelerate cost-cutting measures, including layoffs, as confirmed by CEO Dr. Martin Brudermüller during a conference call on February 27, 2026 [3] - BASF's 2025 financial report revealed a sales figure of €59.7 billion, a decrease from €61.4 billion in 2024, while net income rose to €1.6 billion from €1.3 billion in 2024 [5] - The company is reducing capital expenditures to below depreciation levels, with a planned investment of €13 billion from 2026 to 2029, lower than previous expectations [4]