Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for the plastic in the polyolefin market, the unilateral strategy suggests being cautiously bearish [3]. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic factors have boosted the sentiment in the polyolefin market, leading to a slight increase in polyolefin prices. The sharp decline in international oil and propane prices has weakened the cost - side support for polyolefins. The return of previously shut - down and overhauled plants and the commissioning of new production capacity have slightly increased the supply. Although petrochemical plants are about to enter the traditional maintenance season and future maintenance of existing plants will be intensive, it can only relieve some of the pressure from new supply. Upstream inventory is being depleted, but the inventory reduction of middle - stream traders is slow. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season, with limited demand improvement, and the willingness of downstream buyers to replenish inventory is low [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7288元/吨（+39），PP主力合约收盘价为7072元/吨（+28）；LL华北现货为7170元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 118元/吨（-59），LL华东基差为12元/吨（-39），PP华东基差为48元/吨（-28） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为76.4%（-2.3%），PP开工率为79.3%（-0.3%）；PE油制生产利润为366.9元/吨（-11.7），PP油制生产利润为 - 53.1元/吨（-11.7），PDH制PP生产利润为253.7元/吨（-41.2） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The report does not provide specific content for this part. 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 98.4元/吨（-50.2），PP进口利润为 - 537.0元/吨（-60.2），PP出口利润为28.2美元/吨（+7.4） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（+0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.0%（-1.2%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report mentions that upstream inventory is being depleted, while the inventory reduction of middle - stream traders is slow, but no specific inventory data is provided [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PP2509 oscillates weakly, closing at 7,044 yuan/ton. In the short - term, PP2509 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with the daily K - line focusing on support around 7,000 and pressure around 7,140 [2] - There is a situation of weak supply and demand for PP. In the short - term, the main basis is neutral. At the beginning of July, there are many PP parking devices, and the production and capacity utilization rate are expected to decline. In the long - term, the supply pressure brought by new capacity still exists [2] - The downstream off - season atmosphere is strong, and the orders of products mainly decline. The downstream operating rate of PP may continue the trend of a slight decline [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polypropylene is 7,044 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; the trading volume is 210,887 lots, down 7,959 lots; the open interest is 423,329 lots, down 2,430 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 holders is - 67,671 lots, an increase of 415 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 7,404 lots, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of PP (fiber/injection molding) is 909 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East intermediate price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) is 879 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton [2] - The duty - paid self - pick - up price of PP (drawn grade) in Zhejiang is 7,220 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene is 796 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the CFR price of propane in the Far East is 549 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars/ton [2] - The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.72 US dollars/barrel, up 0.38 US dollars/barrel; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan is 572.75 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of polypropylene in petrochemical enterprises is 79.3%, down 0.54 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of polypropylene is 49.05%, down 0.58 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in plastic weaving is 43.2%, down 0.36 percentage points [2] - The operating rate of polypropylene in injection molding is 55.43%, down 0.35 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in BOPP is 60.41%, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of polypropylene in PP pipes is 36.6%, up 0.54 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in tape master rolls is 48.95%, down 0.59 percentage points [2] - The operating rate of polypropylene in PP non - woven fabrics is 36.28%, down 0.37 percentage points; the operating rate of polypropylene in CPP is 56.38%, down 0.62 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polypropylene is 13.61%, down 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.27%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polypropylene is 10.37%, down 0.42 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 20th to 26th, the domestic polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 0.23% increase from the previous cycle; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.30%, a 0.54% decrease month - on - month [2] - From June 20th to 26th, the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05% [2] - As of June 25th, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 785,800 tons, a decrease of 34,700 tons from the previous period, a 4.23% month - on - month decrease [2]

Group 1 - The company, Prit, announced an investment of 1 billion yuan to establish a headquarters and R&D manufacturing base for modified plastic materials in Nansha District, Guangzhou [1] - The project is expected to have an annual production capacity of 400,000 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's one - sided strategy rating is neutral, and there is no cross - period strategy [3] Core View - The geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran has intensified, causing crude oil and propane prices to run strongly, and the cost - side support for polyolefins has been significantly enhanced. There are many short - stop maintenance devices, and it is expected to start up one after another in the future. The short - term supply pressure is not large. The 500,000 - ton/PP device on Line 4 of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has been successfully put into production, and the future supply is expected to increase. The agricultural film industry is in a seasonal off - season, the demand side remains sluggish, the start - up is expected to remain stable, and the overall operating load is at a low level. The start - up rate of packaging film is lower than the same period in previous years, the start - up of plastic weaving has decreased, the terminal's willingness to stock up is low, and the procurement is mainly based on rigid demand. The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of middle - stream traders has decreased. The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the macro - level uncertainty is strong [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7271元/吨（+21），PP主力合约收盘价为7084元/吨（+10），LL华北现货为7320元/吨（-80），LL华东现货为7350元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7200元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为49元/吨（-101），LL华东基差为79元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为116元/吨（-50） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为78.7%（-0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+0.9%）；PE油制生产利润为458.8元/吨（+241.7），PP油制生产利润为58.8元/吨（+241.7），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 1.5元/吨（+139.6） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 6.2元/吨（-90.0），PP进口利润为 - 338.8元/吨（-9.7），PP出口利润为 - 0.7美元/吨（+1.2） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.2%（+0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.6%（-0.8%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Production enterprise inventory has slightly increased, and middle - stream trader inventory has decreased, but no specific data is provided [2]

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 幅下滑趋势。海外需求季节性偏弱，支撑有限。成本方面，伊朗、以色列同意全面停火，近期国际油价大 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 幅下挫。中东地缘因素影响逐渐减弱，短期PP2509预计震荡走势，关注7030附近支撑与7130附近压力。 免责声明 聚丙烯产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7084 | 10 1月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7026 | -1 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7006 | 0 9月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7084 | 10 | | | 成交量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 268911 | -298157 持仓量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 424343 | -24092 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:聚丙烯 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump's statement on the cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a sharp drop in oil prices at the opening, causing a general decline in chemical products. PE supply is contracting due to the conflict - related shutdown of Iranian polyolefin plants and domestic PE device maintenance, while demand is mainly for刚需 restocking in the off - season. Overall, the current supply - demand pressure of PE is not significant, and attention should be paid to import arrivals and full - density device conversion [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7000 - 7400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.74%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 40.1% [2]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management** - For high - inventory situations worried about price drops, shorting L2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 7300 - 7400 range can prevent inventory depreciation. Selling L2509C7300 call options at a 50% ratio in the 70 - 120 range can collect premiums and lock in selling prices [2]. - For low - inventory situations, buying L2509 futures at a 50% ratio in the 7100 - 7200 range can prevent price increases in procurement. Selling L2509P7100 put options at a 75% ratio in the 50 - 100 range can collect premiums and lock in buying prices [2]. Core Contradictions - Supply contraction: The Israel - Iran conflict led to plant shutdowns in Iran, and domestic PE devices are in maintenance, with full - density device conversion reducing the supply of standard products. Demand is mainly for刚需 restocking in the off - season. Attention should be paid to import arrivals and full - density device conversion [3]. Bullish Factors - PE devices are in seasonal maintenance until July. The high HDPE - LLDPE price difference leads to full - density device conversion, and low HDPE inventory can absorb the supply pressure. The Israel - Iran conflict may reduce PE imports from Iran [4]. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year. The off - season and low - profit environment reduce domestic demand [5]. Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - The plastic main - contract basis, L01, L05, and L09 contracts all showed certain changes compared to previous days and weeks. Month - to - month spreads (L1 - 5, L5 - 9, L9 - 1) and the L - P spread also had significant changes [6][8]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads** - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China changed, and regional spreads (East - North, East - South) also showed fluctuations [8]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads** - Spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE films, as well as between LDPE and LLDPE films, changed [8]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits** - Brent crude oil prices, US ethane prices, coal prices, and methanol prices all changed, affecting the processing profits of different PE production methods [8].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-06-24 新装置顺利投产，供应端压力渐增 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7444元/吨（+29），PP主力合约收盘价为7262元/吨（+20），LL华北现货为7440 元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7500元/吨（+50），PP华东现货为7260元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-4元/吨（-69），LL 华东基差为56元/吨（+21）， PP华东基差为-2元/吨（-50）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+0.9%）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-264.8元/吨（+121.8），PP油制生产利润为-664.8元/吨（+121.8），PDH制PP生产 利润为-192.8元/吨（-47.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为26.6元/吨（-20.1），PP进口利润为-306.4元/吨（+9.9），PP出口利润为-4.7美元/吨（-1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.2%（+0.7%）， ...

聚丙烯产业日报 2025-06-23 免责声明 进一步恶化存疑。短期PP2509预计震荡走势，日度K线关注7190附近支撑与7310附近压力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7262 | 20 1月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7200 | 12 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7187 | 2 9月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 7262 | 20 | | | 成交量聚丙烯(PP)( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - side calcium carbide prices are weak, while ethylene prices show a slight rebound, but overall, the valuation drive remains insufficient. Recently, the strong performance of crude oil due to geopolitical factors has provided some stimulation to the market. The supply - demand situation of PVC continues to be weak, and attention should be mainly paid to external influences [5]. - Operationally, aggressive investors can take a small - scale long position. For the 2509 contract, the support level can be referred to as 4780, and investors can buy and hold put options for protection [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - Last week, the negative value of the PVC 1 - 5 spread narrowed and was higher year - on - year. The 5 - 9 spread remained stable month - on - month and was lower year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure still maintained a contango pattern with higher prices in the distant future, indicating that expectations are stronger than the current situation [12]. - The 9 - 1 spread was weakly stable last week and was higher year - on - year. The basis of the main contract remained stable month - on - month and was higher year - on - year [15]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 PVC Capacity and Output - As of now, the effective PVC production capacity is 28 million tons, with the second - phase 300,000 - ton/year new capacity of Shaanxi Jintai. Last week, the PVC output was 462,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.33%, mainly due to the maintenance of Henan Yuhang and Xinjiang Zhongtai Huatai plants [19]. 3.2.2 Calcium Carbide Method Capacity and Output - As of now, the effective calcium carbide - based PVC production capacity is 20.33 million tons, accounting for about 72.6%. Last week, the output was 343,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.72% [22]. 3.2.3 Ethylene Method Capacity and Output - As of now, the effective ethylene - based PVC production capacity is 7.67 million tons, accounting for about 27.4%. Last week, the output was 118,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.71% and a year - on - year increase of 3.48% [25]. 3.2.4 PVC Start - up and Maintenance - Last week, the upstream PVC start - up rate was 78.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points, at a neutral level in the same period. The maintenance loss was 125,700 tons [28]. - Last week, the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points, at a high level in the same period. The start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.48 percentage points, at a relatively low level in the same period [32]. 3.2.5 PVC and Product Imports - From January to April 2025, the cumulative PVC import volume was 85,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. From January to April, the import volume of plastics and their products in China was 6.8615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.11% [37]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio - From January to April 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 6.7463 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.33%. Last week, the PVC production - sales ratio was 140%, a month - on - month increase of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2 percentage points [42]. 3.3.2 Downstream Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of downstream products was generally weak. Affected by the traditional rainy - season off - season, the start - up of pipe and profile enterprises continued to decline, and the real estate at the macro level still dragged down the terminal demand [45]. 3.3.3 Exports - From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC was 1.3365 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.27%, with an obvious export - grabbing effect. PVC powder was mainly exported to India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc., and the proportion of exports to India was 43.9% [52]. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC floor covering materials was 141.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.67%. They were mainly exported to Europe and the United States. Among them, the proportion of exports to the United States was 27.6%, Canada 9.4%, Germany 5.6%, Australia 3.6%, and the Netherlands 3.5%. Against the background of the tariff war, the export of products to the United States is expected to continue to shrink [54]. 3.3.4 Real Estate and Infrastructure - From a macro perspective, PVC is a commodity with a post - cycle demand in the real estate industry, and its downstream demand is closely related to the real estate industry. From January to May 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year, the floor area under construction decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 22.8%, the completed area decreased by 17.3%, and the sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. The real estate market generally performed stably, and local policy optimization mainly focused on optimizing the provident fund policy. In the first half of June, driven by improved supply and real - estate enterprise promotions, the new - home market in key cities continued to recover, but the differentiation between cities and between new and old projects would still continue, and policy support was still needed to stop the market decline and promote stability [57]. - In terms of infrastructure, in May, the full - caliber and narrow - caliber (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water) infrastructure investment growth rates were 9.2% and 5.1% respectively, down 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points from January to March. As constraints are expected to be further alleviated, infrastructure investment may maintain high - speed growth [57]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory (21 companies) was 355,100 tons, remaining the same month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 41.19%. The PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 569,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 38%. Downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, and export deliveries increased [59]. - The enterprise inventory was 401,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% and a year - on - year increase of 25.23%. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase [64]. 3.5 Valuation 3.5.1 Blue Coke and Calcium Carbide - Last week, the blue - coke price remained stable and was lower year - on - year. The calcium carbide price was weakly stable, with the mainstream price in Wuhai area reported at 2,350 yuan/ton. The power cost decreased, and the decline in the start - up rate of calcium carbide enterprises was less than expected [68]. 3.5.2 Ethylene and Vinyl Chloride - Last week, the ethylene price rebounded month - on - month and was slightly lower year - on - year. The domestic and imported ethylene supplies were relatively tight, and the sharp increase in ethane and crude oil pushed up costs. The vinyl chloride price remained stable month - on - month and was lower year - on - year [71]. 3.5.3 Liquid Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine - Last week, the price of liquid caustic soda decreased month - on - month and was higher year - on - year. The price of liquid chlorine decreased month - on - month and was weaker year - on - year [74]. 3.5.4 PVC Profit - Last week, the loss of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC narrowed slightly month - on - month but was still at the highest loss level in the same period over the years; the loss of ethylene - based PVC widened again month - on - month and was also at the weakest level in the same period [77]. 3.5.5 Chlor - Alkali Profit - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased month - on - month and was higher year - on - year [81].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年6月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年5月PVC产量为201.9692万吨，环比增加3.31%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为79.25%，环比减少0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量34.908万吨，环比减少 0.44%,乙烯法企业产量11.692万吨，环比减少5.15%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检 修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为45.8%，环比减少0.47个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型 材开工率为37.55%，环比减少0.5个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为 42.94%，环比减少1.44个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄 ...