1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in oil prices has weakened the cost - side support. For PE, there is supply pressure due to the release of new production capacity and the approaching of the demand off - season, while for PP, the supply - demand situation remains weak in the short term, and the cost - side support shows different trends for different production methods [1][2] - The recommended strategies are to cautiously sell short LLDPE for hedging, maintain a neutral stance on PP, conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] 3. Summaries According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 6762 yuan/ton (- 31), PP main contract at 6317 yuan/ton (- 55), LL North China spot at 6800 yuan/ton (+ 0), LL East China spot at 6900 yuan/ton (+ 0), PP East China spot at 6360 yuan/ton (- 20), LL North China basis at 38 yuan/ton (+ 31), LL East China basis at 138 yuan/ton (+ 31), PP East China basis at 43 yuan/ton (+ 35) [1] - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 82.7% (- 0.4%), PP operating rate was 78.3% (- 1.3%) [1] - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 296.4 yuan/ton (- 54.1), PP oil - based production profit was - 463.6 yuan/ton (- 54.1), PDH - based PP production profit was - 414.4 yuan/ton (- 21.4) [1] - Imports and exports: LL import profit was - 11.1 yuan/ton (+ 10.3), PP import profit was - 231.8 yuan/ton (- 10.1), PP export profit was 2.8 US dollars/ton (+ 1.2) [1] - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 49.9% (- 0.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.9% (+ 0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.2% (+ 0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 62.6% (+ 0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Supply - side device maintenance has increased slightly, but new production capacity is being released, and demand is entering the off - season. Cost - side support from oil - based production has weakened due to the decline in oil prices [2] - PP: The supply - demand situation remains weak in the short term. Although maintenance devices have increased, it has limited impact on the oversupply situation. Demand is also weakening, and the cost - side support for oil - based production has weakened while that for PDH has strengthened [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously sell short LLDPE for hedging, neutral on PP [3] - Inter - period: Reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high [3] - Cross - variety: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PP market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, with limited follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving. There is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, and the anti - involution policy in the PP industry has not been implemented yet [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving start - up rate of the main downstream of drawstring remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 25th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Shanghai Secco's single - line led to an increase in the PP enterprise start - up rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil price dropped. New production capacity was put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PP2601 contract increased positions and fluctuated downward, closing at 6317 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The position increased by 581 lots to 605,759 lots [2] - **Spot**: PP spot prices in various regions partially declined, with drawstring reported at 6180 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 25th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Shanghai Secco's single - line led to an increase in the PP enterprise start - up rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of November 21st, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving start - up rate of the main downstream of drawstring remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 68.5 tons week - on - week, 8 tons higher than the same period last year, and the petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down [4] 4. Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [6]

上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为350.5元/吨（+9.1），PP油制生产利润为-389.5元/吨（+9.1），PDH制PP生产利润 为-393.0元/吨（-53.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-21.4元/吨（-54.6），PP进口利润为-221.6元/吨（-54.4），PP出口利润为1.6美元/吨（+6.8）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.6%（+0.0%）。 市场分析 聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-25 需求季节性转弱，短期上行驱动有限 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6793元/吨（+23），PP主力合约收盘价为6372元/吨（+15），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6900元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6380元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为7元/吨（-23），LL华 东基差为107元/吨（-23）， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyethylene is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The contract is 12601. With the capacity being put into production, new devices are gradually coming into operation, and the existing production load is also high. Meanwhile, imports are expected to increase in Q4, leading to significant supply pressure. As the demand enters the end of the peak season and struggles to digest the high output, the price center of polyethylene may continue to move downward [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Affected by the futures market, the spot price also declined. The basis strengthened overall. The basis in East China strengthened by 60 to around 180 yuan/ton, remained flat in North China at around -20 yuan/ton, and weakened by 10 to around 190 yuan/ton in South China. The non - standard basis showed a similar trend [20]. - **Spread on the Futures Market**: The 1 - 5 spread remained slightly at around -60, at a historical low. The L - PP01 spread climbed above 430 yuan/ton, and the PP - 701 spread was at a high level. Overall, PP faced greater supply pressure (high load and new production), while L had more maintenance and stronger support from agricultural film demand. The methanol market was weak, with port inventories reaching a new high under high imports. The methanol price continued to decline, and the MI0 profit improved month - on - month [28]. 3.2 Domestic Production Profit and Supply - **Cost Curve**: The oil - based process has the largest capacity share, with the East China oil - based cost at 7192 yuan/ton. The coal - based process is an important supplement to domestic PE production, with the Inner Mongolia coal - based cost at 5523 yuan/ton. The light - hydrocarbon process has the second - largest share, but lacks a clear cost calculation formula. The MTO process has a relatively small capacity share, and its marginal impact is limited [54][55][56]. - **Production Profit**: This week, oil prices oscillated and then declined after mid - week. The Brent crude oil price fell below 82 US dollars per barrel. The oil - based profit was at a relatively good level in recent years. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was weak, and the profit of ethylene procurement improved. Affected by supply tightening and strengthened winter - storage expectations, the price of thermal coal continued to rise, the CTO profit deteriorated but remained high, and the inland MTO profit was under pressure [57][58]. - **Domestic Capacity and Production**: As of October 2025, the new domestic PE capacity totaled 393 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 10.49%. The planned new capacity in 2025 is 563 million tons, and the capacity growth rate is expected to be 14.91%. This week, the domestic PE output was 67.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.35 million tons compared to the previous week. The operating rate was 82.71%, a decrease of 0.43% compared to the previous week. The maintenance loss was 9.95 million tons, an increase of 1.05 million tons compared to the previous week. New maintenance was added to devices of Wanhua Chemical, Jilin Petrochemical, and Zhongying Petrochemical, and the maintenance devices had not restarted, resulting in a decrease in supply this week [78][79][80]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import Profit - **US Dollar Price in the International Market**: The prices in Northwest Europe were at a high level, especially for LD and HD. The US prices declined. The US dollar prices in the Chinese market showed mixed trends, the prices in Southeast Asia decreased slightly with weak demand, and the prices in South Asia remained stable with light trading [96]. - **Domestic and International Price Spread**: The spread between CFR China and the periphery recovered. The import windows for LD and some HD products were open. Recently, the inventory pressure of foreign suppliers has weakened, and the reporting of offers has slowed down [97][107]. 3.4 Downstream Operation and Profit - **Downstream Operation**: The downstream has entered the end of the peak season. The demand for greenhouse films is gradually shrinking, and the operating rate of mulch films has declined from the high level. The operating rate of packaging films increased by 0.3% month - on - month, with some rigid demand remaining. The operating rates of pipes and hollow products increased by 0.3%, while the operating rates of drawing and injection molding decreased by 1% and 0.1% respectively [122]. - **Downstream Profit**: Relevant data showed the profit trends of different types of films such as mulch films and double - protection films, but specific analysis was not provided in the report [123][132]. 3.5 Inventory - This week, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 2.59 million tons to 50.33 million tons, including a reduction of 2.5 million tons in the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies and 0.09 million tons in coal - based inventory. The social inventory decreased by 1.42 million tons to 48.59 million tons. The increase in upstream maintenance and active inventory reduction, combined with the rigid demand consumption of downstream enterprises, led to the reduction of upstream and social inventories [11][150]. 3.6 Position, Trading Volume, and Warehouse Receipts - **Position**: The positions of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of plastics showed different trends over time [165]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of plastics also showed different trends over time [167][168][169]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts of L showed a change trend over time [174].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6770 | -0.95% | 344017 | -3991 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | 0 | | -35 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -61 | | -48 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6770 | | 6800 | | | | 东 华 | 6910 | | 6940 | | | | 华 南 | 7050 | | 7050 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 原料端原油价格震荡，单体环节利润压缩，PE 盘面低位震荡，近端下游农膜、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent announcements by Daon Co., including the transfer of a subsidiary and the establishment of a new company, highlighting the company's strategic moves in the polymer materials sector and its focus on emerging technologies and markets [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Announcements - Daon Co. announced the transfer of 51% equity in its subsidiary, Daon Wanyi (Hebei) Polymer Materials Co., to Hebei Wanyi Special New Materials Manufacturing Co. for 2.46 million yuan, resulting in Daon no longer holding any shares in Daon Wanyi [2]. - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary, Shandong Daon Technology Co., with a registered capital of 10 million yuan, aims to enhance the company's market competitiveness and overall strength [4]. Financial Performance - Daon Wanyi's revenue has stagnated in recent years, with reported figures showing a revenue of 5.18 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025 and a net loss of 36.64 million yuan [4][9]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Daon Co. achieved a revenue of 4.456 billion yuan, marking an 18.23% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 143 million yuan, up 30.11% [9]. Business Development and New Technologies - The company is focusing on new materials and business areas, including breakthroughs in DVA, robotics materials, and TPV [5]. - Daon has made significant progress in high-quality rubber, with TPV products validated for mass production and increased sales of HNBR products [5]. - The company is advancing in the development of high-end composite materials and bio-based materials, including biodegradable polyester materials for medical applications [6][8]. Production Capacity and Expansion - Daon currently has an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons for modified plastics, 90,000 tons for thermoplastic elastomers, and 60,000 tons for copolyester materials [8]. - A new materials expansion project is underway in Shandong Longkou, which includes the construction of a 100,000-ton TPU production line and a 60,000-ton multi-functional polyol project [8]. Industry Trends and Events - The article mentions the upcoming Third Polymer Recycling Conference scheduled for December 11-13, 2025, in Ningbo, focusing on polymer recycling policies, advanced recovery technologies, and sustainable development in the industry [12][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to experience weak and volatile trading in the near term due to factors such as the upcoming implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, limited impact of the BIS policy, high levels of futures warehouse receipts, and the decline in prices of coking coal and coke which dampen market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased slightly by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate has continued to decline slightly and is at a low level. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC has alleviated concerns about Chinese exports, but the upcoming anti - dumping duties have led traders to adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Last week, export orders increased month - on - month. Social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and its improvement requires time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and new production capacities have been put into operation. There is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry yet [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4449 yuan/ton, the highest was 4509 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4456 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.20%. The position volume decreased by 57,942 lots to 1,374,454 lots [2] - **Basis**: On November 21, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4410 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4456 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 46 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The maintenance of some devices such as Shandong Xinfa has ended, and the PVC operating rate has increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%. New production capacities including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into operation or are in low - load operation [4] - **Demand**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, real estate investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased significantly year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion further declined. As of the week of November 16, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% month - on - month but was still at the lowest level in recent years [5] - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 20, PVC social inventory increased by 0.41% month - on - month to 1.0326 million tons, 23.47% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The PVC market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. Factors contributing to this include a decrease in PVC and downstream开工率, high social inventory, ongoing real - estate adjustments, upcoming Indian anti - dumping taxes, high futures warehouse receipts, and falling prices of coking coal and coke suppressing market sentiment [1]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. PVC开工率 decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. Downstream开工率 slightly declined and remains at a low level. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC alleviated concerns about exports, but the upcoming anti - dumping tax has made traders cautious [1]. - From January to October 2025, the real - estate sector is still in adjustment. Investment, new construction, and completion areas have significant year - on - year declines, and the growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further dropped. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. New production capacities such as Tianjin Bohua are in operation, and some enterprises' maintenance is about to end [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a low of 4416 yuan/ton, a high of 4490 yuan/ton, and closed at 4456 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 1.15% decline and a decrease of 25423 hands in positions to 1432396 hands [2]. - On November 20, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4410 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4456 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 yuan/ton, strengthening by 6 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang entered maintenance, causing the PVC开工率 to decline. New production capacities like Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, and Qingdao Gulf are in production [4]. - On the demand side, the real - estate sector is still in adjustment. From January to October 2025, real - estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a 14.7% year - on - year decrease. The sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a 6.8% decrease. The sales volume was 6901.7 billion yuan, a 9.6% decrease. New construction and completion areas also decreased significantly. As of November 16, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 13, PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year. Although it decreased slightly, it is still high [6].

格隆汇11月20日丨银禧科技(300221.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司的PPO业务材料分为PPO注塑用改性塑料 与化工合成的电子化学品PPO材料。PPO注塑用改性塑料是公司成熟的产品，共用改性塑料产线，产能 充足。公司的电子化学品PPO年设计产能为300吨，但受多种因素影响，实际产能远低于设计产能，目 前还在爬坡中。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The PET industry is experiencing an improvement in supply-demand structure and processing fee levels, leading to a stable operational performance for the company [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company has implemented industry initiatives since July to combat internal competition, resulting in a decrease in overall production load due to scheduled maintenance [1] - The company emphasizes a commitment to steady operations and aims to reward investors through performance and long-term value growth [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The overall supply-demand structure of the PET industry continues to improve, with processing fees showing a positive recovery trend [1]