Copper - Overnight copper prices showed a downward trend, with domestic refined copper imports continuing to incur losses [3][12] - Macro factors include significant selling of long-term Japanese government bonds due to pre-election expectations and expansionary fiscal narratives, leading to market tension [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons [3][12] - Domestic copper consumption is entering a low season, with inventory accumulation stronger than in the past two years, indicating a need for adjustment [3][12] - Despite the current market conditions, there is still support from funds, making a significant price drop unlikely, with attention on the LME support level of $12,000 per ounce [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.12% to $17,760 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.68% to 140,110 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 972 tons to 284,736 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell by 320 tons to 41,478 tons [4][13] - Indonesia plans to adjust nickel quotas based on industry demand to support local mineral prices, although specific quota levels for 2026 were not disclosed [4][13] - Primary nickel production increased significantly by 18.5% to 37,200 tons, with hedging demand potentially exerting pressure on prices [4][5][13] - Short-term nickel prices may be supported by Indonesian policies, but high inventory levels pose upward pressure [5][13] Aluminum & Alumina - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,668 yuan per ton, down 0.85% [6][14] - SHFE aluminum prices also decreased, with AL2603 closing at 23,775 yuan per ton, down 1.02% [6][14] - The market is experiencing a high inventory level, and there is a lack of purchasing interest from alumina plants, leading to continued inventory accumulation [6][14] - Domestic downstream inventory is expected to continue accumulating, with a potential for short-term price corrections in aluminum [6][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract settling at 8,745 yuan per ton, down 0.4% [7][15] - Polysilicon prices remained strong, with the main contract at 50,700 yuan per ton, up 0.91% [7][15] - The market is shifting from speculative trading to a focus on fundamentals, with pressures on polysilicon prices due to supply-demand imbalances [7][15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures reached a limit up at 160,500 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 1,500 yuan to 152,500 yuan per ton [8][16] - Weekly production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with various sources of lithium showing production increases [8][16] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate rose by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, indicating a mixed supply-demand situation [8][16] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook unless clear negative feedback from demand emerges [8][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. With both supply and demand decreasing, combined with the upward price transmission effects of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is evident. There is short-term potential for demand growth, which will boost prices. The upward price limit depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward limit is restricted by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates in the photovoltaic industry may stimulate short-term polysilicon exports, but it may also deplete medium- and long-term demand. After polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the hope for coordinated price support was dashed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with downstream production capacity accelerating to clear. In the short term, attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and the January production plan; in the medium to long term, focus on the recovery of demand and inventory clearance progress [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,605 yuan/ton and closed at 8,845 yuan/ton, a change of 140 yuan/ton (1.61%) from the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the 2605 main contract was 235,167 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 18, 2026, was 11,283 lots, a change of 144 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of January 15, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 555,000 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week [1]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. This week, polysilicon production cuts continued, providing limited support for industrial silicon demand. Organic silicon maintained a staggered peak emission reduction policy and continued self - disciplined production cuts, also providing weak support for industrial silicon demand. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable to slightly weak. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics may bring upward momentum to the demand side [1]. Supply - On the same day, a major factory in Xinjiang announced production cuts. The planned production in January is expected to decline significantly, which will positively impact the industrial silicon price. If the production cuts are effective, the supply of industrial silicon will contract significantly, and the inventory will shift from accumulation to depletion [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated upward, opening at 50,200 yuan/ton and closing at 50,505 yuan/ton, a 0.63% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The position of the main contract reached 44,571 lots (46,220 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 12,235 lots [3]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg [3]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory also increased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 321,000 tons, a 6.29% change from the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 24.78GW, a - 5.53% change from the previous period, polysilicon weekly production was 21,500 tons, a - 9.66% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer production was 10.83GW, a 2.95% change from the previous period [3]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.49 yuan/piece [4]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.41 yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W [6]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.77 yuan/W [6]. - Recently, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the minimum opening volume of the polysilicon futures 2701 contract, changing the minimum opening order quantity from 1 lot to 10 lots. The reduction of speculative funds makes the market fluctuations more in line with the supply - demand fundamentals, stabilizes the hedging effect, and strengthens the influence of industrial customers on prices [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to maintain a weak oscillation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7]

Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Weekly Report (January 12 - January 16, 2026) [1] - Report Date: January 18, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Shi Enbing [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The market is expected to oscillate. Supply-side: The number of open furnaces decreased by 7 this week, mainly from Sichuan. Social and warehouse inventories increased slightly. Demand-side: Both the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti-involution. Polysilicon production in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons. The organic silicon industry is supporting prices, with weekly production continuously decreasing slightly. The aluminum alloy开工率remains stable. The market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan, and short positions can be considered at high prices [3]. Polysilicon - The market is expected to oscillate. The National Energy Administration commented on the "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry. For mature sectors such as silicon materials and wafers, backward production capacity should be eliminated. For the component sector, sales below cost should be rectified. The spot market is in a wait-and-see state this week. Supply-side: Weekly production decreased by over 10%, and industry inventory increased slightly. Demand-side: Wafer production in January remains stable, while cell and component production decreased by over 10% month-on-month. The cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates on the 9th supports component exports during the window period, and demand is expected to remain stable in the off-season. After the "anti-monopoly" event, the market has fully priced in the negative news, and the near-term balance sheet has shifted from loose to tight supply-demand balance. Next week, attention should be paid to the emotional impact of the follow-up feedback from industry associations [4]. 3. Summary by Catalogue 01 Futures Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price oscillated between 8605 - 8755 yuan/ton. The spread between the first and fourth contracts was 65. The trading volume decreased by 8100 lots to 371,900 lots. The capital inflow decreased by 70 million yuan to 3.233 billion yuan. The warehousing receipts increased to 56,415 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract 2605 oscillated widely between 48,670 - 50,200 yuan. The warehousing receipts increased by 390 tons to 13,680 tons. The capital inflow decreased by 735 million yuan to 3.797 billion yuan [4]. 02 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The spot price remained stable. Xinjiang Tongyang 553 was reported at 8700 yuan/ton, Kunming 421 at 10,000 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 at 9800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Valuation**: The electricity price in the southwest region has gradually recovered after switching to the dry-season electricity price. The production costs in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan are estimated to be 8487.5 yuan/ton, 9720 yuan/ton, and 9600 yuan/ton respectively, with profits of 312.5 yuan/ton, -380 yuan/ton, and -400 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - **Supply**: This week's production was 78,420 tons, a decrease of 1860 tons (-2.3%) from last week. The number of open furnaces decreased by 7, with an overall furnace opening rate of 27.76%. Xinjiang's production increased by 43.94% year-on-year, Sichuan's decreased by 24.73%, and Yunnan's decreased by 7.96% [3]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 3000 tons to 555,000 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehousing receipts increased by 1975 tons to 56,415 tons [3]. - **Demand**: - **Polysilicon**: Production this week was 22,030 tons, a decrease of 13.3% week-on-week. The industry's total inventory was approximately 316,800 tons, an increase of 1.6% week-on-week [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The average price of DMC remained unchanged at 13,850 yuan/ton (+1.8%). The prices of industrial chain products increased by 250 - 350 yuan. DMC production decreased by 400 tons to 43,600 tons, a decrease of 0.9% week-on-week. Weekly inventory decreased by 1300 tons, a decrease of 2.9% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The average price of ADC12 was 23,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan week-on-week; the average price of A356 was 24,300 yuan/ton, with the price rising first and then falling. The regenerative 开工率this week was 58%. In December, passenger car production decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle production increased by 18.5% year-on-year in November [3]. - **Export**: Industrial silicon exports in November showed a year-on-year improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and a month-on-month increase of 21.8% [3]. 03 Polysilicon - **Price**: This week, the prices of silicon materials and wafers remained stable, while the price of cell sheets increased slightly by 4% [3][4]. - **Valuation**: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Qinghai, and Xinjiang are 42,465 yuan/ton, 39,540 yuan/ton, 45,415 yuan/ton, and 43,963 yuan/ton respectively, with profits of 17,135 yuan/ton, 20,460 yuan/ton, 14,585 yuan/ton, and 14,370 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Supply**: This week's production was 22,030 tons, a decrease of 13.3% week-on-week. Production in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons month-on-month [4]. - **Inventory**: The industry's total inventory increased by 5000 tons to approximately 316,800 tons, an increase of 1.6% week-on-week [4]. - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of N-type wafers remained stable this week. In December, wafer inventory increased by 18.92% month-on-month and 17.4% year-on-year. Wafer production in January is planned to be 45.2 GW, a decrease of 2% year-on-year and an increase of 3% month-on-month [4]. - **Cell Sheets**: The price of cell sheets increased slightly by 4% this week. Cell production in January is planned to be 39.36 GW, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year and 15.8% month-on-month [4]. - **Components**: The price of components increased slightly by 3 - 5% this week. The latest weekly inventory was 30.4 GW, an increase of 1.33% week-on-week. Production in January is planned to be 32.47 GW, a decrease of 19% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year. Component exports in November were 20.09 GW, an increase of 22.92% year-on-year and 3.6% month-on-month. In November 2025, new photovoltaic installations were 22.02 GW, a decrease of 11.9% year-on-year and an increase of 74.8% month-on-month. The year-end installation intensity slightly exceeded expectations, and the annual total is expected to exceed 300 GW. The latest average winning bid price for photovoltaic components was 0.71 yuan/watt, with a winning bid procurement capacity of only 0.2 GW [4]. 04 Organic Silicon, Aluminum Alloy, and Export - **Organic Silicon (DMC)**: The price increased to 13,850 yuan/ton (+1.8%) this week. Weekly production decreased by 0.9% week-on-week, and inventory decreased by 2.9% week-on-week. The gross profit margin was 13.73% [3][53][55]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The prices of ADC12 and A356 oscillated within a range this week. The regenerative aluminum alloy 开工率this week was 58%. In December, passenger car production decreased by 4.2% year-on-year [3][59][61]. - **Export**: Industrial silicon exports in November decreased by 3.7% year-on-year and increased by 21.78% month-on-month [3][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon (SI): Bearish [6] - Polysilicon (PS): Hold [7] - Lithium carbonate (LC): Sideways [82] 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of new energy products are at a high level with increased volatility. The industrial silicon market is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, leading to a bearish outlook. The polysilicon market has poor contract liquidity, so investors are advised to be cautious. The lithium carbonate market is expected to be sideways, with fundamental support but price adjustment pressure at high levels [6][7][82] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production was 78,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77%; the number of open furnaces was 221, a week - on - week decrease of 7. In December, the production was 397,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 19.75%; the planned production in January was 377,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 24.26%. The supply side is generally bullish, but there are differences among regions [6] - **Demand Side**: The weekly production of polysilicon was 22,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.27%. The weekly production of silicone was 43,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90%. The demand side is bearish [6] - **Inventory Side**: The visible inventory was 510,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.99%. The inventory side is neutral [6] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton was 9,054.17 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%; the gross profit per ton was - 81 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton. The cost and profit situation is neutral [6] - **Investment View**: Bearish, with a weak support for prices below [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Short position. Risks to watch include production cuts and restarts by large manufacturers and changes in environmental protection policies [6] 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production was 22,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.27%. In December, the production was 115,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 18.71%; the planned production in January was 107,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19%. The supply side is bullish [7] - **Demand Side**: The weekly production of silicon wafers was 10.45GW, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%. The demand side is bullish [7] - **Inventory Side**: The factory inventory was 316,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The registered warehouse receipts were 13,680 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.07%, showing continuous growth. The inventory side is bearish [7] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton was 42,969 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.41%; the gross profit per ton was 16,241 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 174 yuan. The cost and profit situation is bearish [7] - **Investment View**: Hold. Existing contracts have poor liquidity, and investors are reminded to pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold. Risks to watch include production cuts and restarts by large manufacturers and changes in anti - involution policies [7] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production was 22,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. In December, the production was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 41.00%; the planned production in January was about 98,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year increase of 56.78%. The supply side is neutral [82] - **Import Side**: In November, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The import side is bearish [82] - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate was 97,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.19%. The weekly production of ternary materials was 18,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. The material demand side is bearish [82] - **Terminal Demand**: In December, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.718 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.29%. The terminal demand side is bearish [82] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 10,970 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%, showing a slight inventory reduction. The inventory side is bullish [82] - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external - purchased ore lithium extraction was 148,815 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.06%. The cost and profit situation is bearish [82] - **Investment View**: Sideways. Fundamentals support prices, but there are differences at high prices, and there may be adjustment pressure [82] - **Trading Strategy**: Sideways position. Risks to watch include production cuts at the mining end, changes in environmental protection policies, and disturbances from large power manufacturers [82]

Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for polysilicon is to "observe range-bound fluctuations and focus on actual spot transaction prices." - The investment rating for industrial silicon is to "sell short at the upper end of the range" [1]. Core Views of the Report - For polysilicon, Tongwei Co., Ltd. will halt all production next week, and GCL Technology will significantly reduce production this month. It is expected that polysilicon output in January will drop below 90,000 tons. From April, export tax rebates for photovoltaic products other than photovoltaic cells will be removed, which may lead to a rush to export silicon wafers, cells, and modules from January to March. Polysilicon inventory is expected to decrease in January. The spot market is cautious, and large - scale spot transactions have yet to occur. After the 20th, there may be bulk transactions, and the spot transaction price will be the core guide for the market. The actual transaction price of polysilicon dense material this month is expected to be in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and the futures price reference range is (45,000, 55,000). Trading volume is low in the short term, with high volatility, so participation should be cautious [4]. - For industrial silicon, demand is weak due to organic silicon production cuts, seasonal decline in aluminum alloy operating rates, and reduced monthly polysilicon output. There are no short - term production cut plans for industrial silicon manufacturers, resulting in a slight supply - demand surplus. The cost of industrial silicon is basically stable. The commodity market's bullish sentiment is fading, and industrial silicon, with a weak fundamental outlook, may decline in a volatile manner, with a price range reference of (8,000, 8,800) [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - Supply - demand situation: Production cuts by major companies will reduce output, and potential export rush may lead to inventory reduction. - Trading strategy: Adopt range - bound trading, with low trading volume and cautious participation. There are no current arbitrage or option strategies [4][5]. Industrial Silicon - Supply - demand situation: Weak demand from downstream industries and a slight supply - demand surplus. - Trading strategy: Sell short at the upper end of the range, sell out - of - the - money call options, and there are no current arbitrage strategies [7][8]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking Market Performance - This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices changed little. Manufacturers had low shipment volumes and no large - scale hedging [11]. Downstream Demand - DMC weekly output was 43,600 tons, a 0.91% week - on - week decrease; polysilicon weekly output was 22,000 tons, a 13.27% week - on - week decrease; primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 58.6%, a 0.6 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 58.4%, unchanged from the previous week [7][14]. Production - This week, industrial silicon weekly output was 78,400 tons, a 2.82% week - on - week decrease. The total number of open furnaces was 222, a decrease of 6 from the previous week. Tongwei Co., Ltd. will cut production of 8 submerged arc furnaces for its industrial silicon capacity, with 6 already cut this week [24]. Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory was 555,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,700 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 210,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,200 tons. Downstream raw material inventory was 233,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons [26]. Product Prices - This week, industrial silicon spot prices remained stable, as did DMC and terminal product prices [32][36]. Intermediate and Related Product Data - The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates decreased slightly, while the price and operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly [42][46]. Raw Material Prices - This week, industrial silicon raw material prices remained stable [50]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking Price Trends - This week, the prices of some polysilicon, cells, and modules increased [55]. Component Data - From April 2026, export tax rebates for photovoltaic components will be removed, which may lead to a rush to export from January to March. It is expected that component production scheduling in January will increase to around 40GW. European component inventory has increased to 31.3GW, and domestic manufacturers' component inventory is 30GW, at a moderately low level [63]. Cell Data - Export tax rebates for photovoltaic cells will be reduced and then removed in 2027. It is expected that cell production scheduling in January will increase to around 48GW [64]. Silicon Wafer Data - Current silicon wafer inventory has decreased to 24.78GW. With the cancellation of export tax rebates in sync with components, there is still demand for silicon wafer exports. Silicon wafer production scheduling in January may increase to 50GW [70]. Polysilicon Data - This week, polysilicon output decreased slightly, and factory inventory increased to 320,000 tons. In January, GCL Technology will lower its operating rate, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. will halt production. Polysilicon output this month will drop below 90,000 tons [75].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short positions are recommended on price rallies [1] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the impact of news [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, and profit. It also reports on relevant macro and industry news and evaluates the trend strength of both products [2][4] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price was 8,605 yuan/ton, with a volume of 281,253 lots and an open interest of 238,869 lots. For polysilicon, the PS2605 closing price was 50,200 yuan/ton, with a volume of 21,717 lots and an open interest of 46,220 lots [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium against different benchmarks showed various changes, while polysilicon's spot premium against N - type re - investment was +5150 yuan/ton [2] - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon N - type re - investment material was 54850 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan were - 2526.5 yuan/ton and - 5749 yuan/ton respectively. Polysilicon enterprise profit was 10.4 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 55.5 million tons, enterprise inventory was 20.8 million tons, and total industry inventory was 76.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory was 32.1 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions were provided, showing little change overall [2] - **Photovoltaic - Related Products**: The prices and profit conditions of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and EVA in the photovoltaic industry were presented, with some products showing price changes [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 14, 2026, South Korea's polysilicon leader OCI Holding announced that its subsidiary OCI ONE's 2.7GW silicon wafer factory in Vietnam had started production. The factory was acquired from Chinese photovoltaic enterprise Boda Xinneng in October 2025, with OCI ONE holding 65% of the shares. Currently, the factory is in the initial stage of capacity ramp - up and has not entered the shipping or delivery stage [2][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish view; Polysilicon trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Group 1: Copper Market - The macroeconomic environment shows that the US December CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [3][18] - Domestic copper concentrate prices remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply conditions, which is a strong support factor for the market [4][19] - January's estimated electrolytic copper production is 1.1636 million tons, a 1.2% month-on-month decrease but a 14.7% year-on-year increase due to tight copper concentrate supply [4][19] - The net import of refined copper in November decreased by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month to 208,100 tons [4][19] - As of January 16, global visible copper inventories increased by 76,000 tons to 1.037 million tons, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4][20] - Market sentiment is influenced by precious metals, with copper prices showing strength initially but concerns over domestic policy impacts and seasonal demand weakening consumption [5][20] - The overall market outlook for copper remains bullish with a recommendation to buy on dips, but caution against excessive buying is advised [6][20] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - January's refined nickel production is expected to increase by 18.5% month-on-month to 37,200 tons, while Chinese nickel pig iron production is projected to decrease by 1% [7][21] - Demand in the new energy sector is weakening, with a decline in the production of ternary precursor materials and a drop in terminal sales of new energy vehicles [7][21] - LME nickel inventories increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons, indicating a slight build-up in stock [7][21] - Indonesia is adjusting its nickel quotas to support local prices, which may provide some price support in the short term, but overall market sentiment remains weak [7][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Alumina futures are experiencing a weak trend, with prices dropping by 3.2% week-on-week, while aluminum and aluminum alloy prices also show declines [8][22] - The operating rate for alumina has increased slightly, while electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to rise, indicating a mixed supply outlook [8][22] - Downstream industries are preparing for the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to increased processing rates in some sectors, but overall demand recovery is limited [9][22] - Inventory levels for alumina and aluminum are rising, suggesting a potential oversupply situation in the near term [9][24] Group 4: Silicon and Polysilicon Market - Industrial silicon futures are showing a weak trend, with production decreasing week-on-week, while polysilicon prices are also under pressure [11][25] - The supply of industrial silicon is tightening due to reduced operating rates and closures in some regions, while demand remains subdued [11][25] - Inventory levels for both industrial silicon and polysilicon are increasing, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [11][26] - The market is shifting focus from speculative trading to fundamental analysis, with expectations of limited price recovery in the short term [11][26] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate Market - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 70 tons to 22,605 tons, with varying trends in different lithium sources [14][27] - Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is declining, with significant drops in both retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles [14][27] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 263 tons, but overall market sentiment remains pressured due to weak demand [14][28] - The market is experiencing fluctuations in prices due to funding disturbances, with a recommendation to monitor inventory turnover and demand trends closely [14][28]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Indonesia's policy uncertainties, including nickel ore quota adjustments, consideration of taxing associated minerals, and fines for illegal mining, have led to a divergence in market expectations between the secondary market and the industry. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will also be affected by these factors, with a wide - range of fluctuations in the short - term [4][8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices. Polysilicon is expected to see a boost in market sentiment next Tuesday, with a supply - demand situation of weak supply and strong demand. It is not recommended to participate in futures directly, but options can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are strong, and the spot purchase intention is increasing. The short - term downside space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [52][55]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is in a bottom - range oscillation. A clearer buying opportunity is expected in February - March. Soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [79][80][84]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: After the market has digested the negative factors, soybean meal prices may rebound at low levels. Soybean No.1 spot prices are stable and strong, and futures prices will follow the market sentiment [94][99]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with limited downward adjustment space before the Spring Festival [113][118]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, sugar prices are in a low - level consolidation. Domestically, the market maintains a weak basis expectation, and it is necessary to pay attention to import policy changes [136][138][164]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton lacks fundamental drivers, and domestic cotton prices continue to adjust. It is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to trade based on demand [165][180]. - **Pigs**: Pig spot prices will fluctuate and adjust, and the futures market is waiting for the confirmation of the supply - demand increase stage. Attention should be paid to the trading of off - season expectations after the Spring Festival [181][182][183]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices are in a pattern of weak peak - season performance. Futures prices are weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival [197][198]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: Nickel prices fluctuate widely, and stainless steel prices are affected by nickel - related factors and show wide - range fluctuations [7][8][9]. - **Inventory**: Refined nickel inventory in China decreased slightly, while LME nickel inventory increased. The inventory of the nickel - stainless steel industry chain decreased [10]. - **Market News**: Indonesia has introduced a series of policies, including restricting new smelting licenses, adjusting nickel ore quotas, and considering taxing associated minerals [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon prices fell from high levels, and polysilicon prices fluctuated within a range [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon supply decreased marginally, and demand was weak. Polysilicon supply decreased, and demand increased [30][31][32]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon inventory increased, and polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate [30][31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures prices first rose and then fell, and spot prices increased [52]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: High lithium prices may lead to the resumption of overseas lithium mines. Demand is strong in the off - season, and inventory has decreased [53][54]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Price Trends**: Palm oil prices fluctuated, and soybean oil prices were in a range - bound operation [79][84]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Palm oil production in Malaysia may decrease in January, and Indonesia's B50 policy is uncertain. Soybean oil is affected by the US biodiesel policy and South American soybean production [80][83]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Price Trends**: Soybean meal prices were weak, and soybean No.1 prices oscillated [94]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: China's continuous purchase of US soybeans has a positive impact, while the USDA report has a short - term negative impact. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased, and spot prices are stable [94][97]. Corn - **Price Trends**: Spot and futures prices both increased [113][114]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices were stable, and corn starch inventory decreased [115][116][117]. Sugar - **Price Trends**: Internationally, New York raw sugar prices increased slightly. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices decreased slightly [136][137]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazil's production increased slightly, India's production increased significantly, and Thailand's production decreased [154][155]. Cotton - **Price Trends**: ICE cotton prices first rose and then fell, and domestic cotton prices continued to adjust [165][168]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The USDA report adjusted the US and global cotton balances. Domestic cotton supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is in the off - season [169][174]. Pigs - **Price Trends**: Spot prices were strong, and futures prices fluctuated strongly [181]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is tight, and demand is stable. The market is waiting for the confirmation of the supply - demand increase stage [181][182]. Peanuts - **Price Trends**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell [197]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. The inventory pressure may be postponed to after the Spring Festival [197][198].