2025年12月14日 | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 | 11 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面高位震荡态势 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：基本面新增驱动有限，高位宽幅震荡 | 20 | 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：预计镍价低位震荡运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，耐蚀合金需求承压，前期重心 下移挤压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库斜率稍有趋缓，这也将精炼镍过剩的压力进 行结构性转向，硫酸镍与盘面溢价回归收敛。不过，总量过剩矛盾与湿法投产预期或仍然拖累镍价。远端 低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. The structural shift in surplus and potential risks from Indonesia's policies should be noted. Stainless steel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short on price increases, with the next - week's price range expected to be between 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the next - week's price range estimated to be between 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market lacks new driving forces, and the high - level oscillation is expected to continue. The price of the futures main contract is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is waiting for Malaysia's December production reduction to confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to operate with a light position. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [91][93]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate at a low level, and soybean No.1 is expected to trade within a range. The prices of both are expected to oscillate next week [104][108]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The supply - demand mismatch has been marginally alleviated, and the near - end of the futures market remains relatively strong [122][127]. - **Sugar**: The international market is in a weak - expectation pattern and is expected to be sorted out at a low level. The domestic market is expected to operate weakly [148][150]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upside space may be limited [176][193]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2601 contract in the futures market may face pressure [195][198]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategies of large oil mills [210][211]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with the surplus pressure structurally shifted. Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slight surplus and limited upside space for prices [4][5]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons this week, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons. Stainless steel inventories also showed certain changes [6]. - **Market News**: There are various news events, such as Indonesia's policy adjustments, production restrictions in some projects, and changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price first declined and then rose, with the spot price falling. Polysilicon's futures price opened low and closed high, with the spot price stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's supply has a certain increase in some regions but a decrease in the southwest. The demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply has a slight decrease in the short - term, and the demand has a certain change in silicon wafer production [29][30]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social and factory inventories have increased, and polysilicon's factory inventory has also increased [29][30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices have increased, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply has a certain change in overseas shipments and domestic production, and the demand has a decline in downstream procurement willingness. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate has slowed down [57]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views**: Palm oil rebounded after the MPOB report, but the high - inventory situation restricted the upside. Soybean oil lacked upward driving forces and oscillated within a range [90]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil's high production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. It needs to confirm the production reduction in December to find the price bottom. Soybean oil is affected by the slow sales progress of US soybeans and is expected to oscillate [91][93]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices first fell and then rose, while soybean No.1 prices were relatively strong [104]. - **Next - Week's Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean prices and China's procurement, and soybean No.1 affected by spot prices and market news [104][108]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot prices slightly declined, and futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The basis has strengthened [122][123]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices declined, wheat prices fell, and the import corn auction restarted. Corn starch inventory decreased, and attention should be paid to the spot market [124][127]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: International sugar prices increased slightly, and domestic sugar prices declined. The net long position of funds increased slightly [148][149]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: The international market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and the domestic market is expected to operate weakly [150]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton is in a low - level narrow - range oscillation, and domestic cotton futures and spot prices are slightly stronger. The basis is relatively strong, and the increase in cotton warehouse receipts restricts the upside [176]. - **International and Domestic Fundamentals**: International cotton has various changes in production, consumption, and exports in different countries. Domestic cotton has a certain increase in prices, and the downstream situation is slightly worse [180][188]. Hogs - **This Week's Market Review**: Spot prices oscillated and adjusted, and futures prices were slightly stronger in oscillation. The basis has changed [195][196]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices may face pressure [197][198]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices oscillated [210]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price has regional differentiation, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties [211].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current production cut scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and the follow - up depends on actual production cuts. The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [3][16][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 370 yuan/ton to 8435 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - fed 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8750 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 3260 yuan/ton to 58770 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Partial Start of Production Cuts, Polysilicon Capacity Integration and Acquisition Platform Launched - **Industrial silicon**: This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures dropped significantly. Factories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Gansu had changes in the number of furnaces. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.45 tons. After updating the balance sheet, it is estimated that industrial silicon will be in tight balance in December, but there may be inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year. The current factory inventory pressure is not large, and the basis has only strengthened by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The current futures price has reached the cash cost line of 50% of the monthly output [11]. - **Organic silicon**: This week, the organic silicon price remained stable. Some device operations changed, the overall enterprise operating rate was 69.84%, the weekly output was 4.62 tons, a decrease of 4.74% week - on - week, and the inventory was 4.44 tons, a decrease of 2.63% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly. The price of N - type dense re - feeding material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg, and the granular material remained at 50 - 51 yuan/kg. Considering the production cuts of leading enterprises, the planned production in December is expected to be 11.2 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate. The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [13]. - **Silicon wafers**: This week, the silicon wafer price stopped falling. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.18/1.20 - 1.23/1.50 yuan/piece. The planned production in December is 45GW. After the production cuts, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [14]. - **Battery cells**: This week, the battery cell price continued to decline. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells dropped to 0.28 yuan/watt, and the G12R model remained at 0.275 yuan/watt. The planned production in December is 47.8GW. The cost pressure is rising, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise [14]. - **Components**: This week, the component price remained basically stable. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects was 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. The planned production in December will drop significantly to 37GW. The price is expected to remain stable [15]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial silicon**: The current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. The new warehouse receipts are difficult to digest. The current futures valuation is low, and the strategy is to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies [16]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall. The strategy is to focus on long - buying opportunities on dips after the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and observe the absolute price of the 01 contract for arbitrage [17]. 3.4 Hot News Compilation - The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, aiming to solve the "involution" - style vicious competition in the photovoltaic industry. The platform will operate in a dual - track mode of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible use of production capacity" [18]. - The winning bid candidates for the 2.5GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement of China Three Gorges Corporation were announced, with the bid price ranging from 0.75 to 0.763 yuan/W and an average price of 0.756 yuan/W [19]. 3.5 Industrial Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data tracking charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, output, inventory, and profit data [20][30][34][40][48][55].

现货方面，12月12日多晶硅价格持稳，N型致密料47-53元/千克，N型混包料46-50元/千克，N型颗粒硅46-51元/千克。 12月7日，阿曼阿拉伯银行与联合太阳能多晶硅公司(United Solar Polysilicon)敲定2.2亿美元融资协议，用于支持其建设年产10万吨高纯多晶硅工 厂。据悉联合太阳能多晶硅公司10万吨多晶硅工厂即将投产。 截至2025年12月12日当周，多晶硅期货主力合约收于57190元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周增持28445手。 本周(12月8日-12月12日)市场上看，多晶硅期货周内开盘报52780元/吨，最高触及57625元/吨，最低下探至52780元/吨，周度涨跌幅达2.07%。 消息面回顾： 截至12月4日，多晶硅总库存29.1万吨，硅片库存21.3GW。截至12月8日，多晶硅注册仓单2,810手。 机构观点汇总： 广州期货：近日产能整合收购平台的成立为盘面提供了核心支撑，推动价格出现阶段性上行，但当前品种市场关注度高、干预因素较多，此次价 格反弹更多是前期利好预期的阶段性兑现，相关细则等关键信息尚未落地，价格向上拓展的空间或较为有限，叠加基本面"强预期弱现实"的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is running weakly, with prices breaking through support levels. In the short - term, after a smooth decline, attention should be paid to the rebound near technical support levels. The supply reduction of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck, and demand support is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak, but it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti - involution" related commodities improves. For polysilicon, there is a significant divergence between expectations and reality. The expected "anti - involution" is strong, but the downstream reality is weak. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and attention should be paid to the pressure performance at the 60,000 - yuan mark on the disk [16][18] Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Demand - The weekly output of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 26,300 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month. The DMC output is 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,300 tons. From January to October, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy is 15.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. From January to October, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 598,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9,700 tons or 1.66% [14] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of industrial silicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistical caliber is 507,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,800 tons. Among them, the factory inventory is 273,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,100 tons; the market inventory is 191,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons [14] Price - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 8,435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygenated) has a premium of 765 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 8.32%; the 421 has a premium of 415 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 4.69% [15] Cost - According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang is reported at 8,504.17 yuan/ton; in Yunnan, it is 9,720.00 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 9,825.00 yuan/ton; and in Inner Mongolia, it is 8,985.71 yuan/ton [15] Supply - The weekly output of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber is 82,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [15] 02. Spot and Futures Market Industrial Silicon - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 8,435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygenated) has a premium of 765 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 8.32%; the 421 has a premium of 415 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 4.69% [23] Polysilicon - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical polysilicon N - type reclaimed feedstock is 52.3 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the average price of N - type dense material is 51 yuan/kg, also remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 57,190 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,040 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract is - 4,890 yuan/ton, with a basis ratio of - 9.35% [26] 03. Industrial Silicon Total Output - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber is 82,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons. In November 2025, the output of industrial silicon is 360,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year decrease is 672,900 tons or 15.39% [31] Main Production Areas Output - Not specifically summarized in text, but data on production in different regions such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are presented in figures [33][35][38] Production Cost - As of December 12, 2025, the electricity prices in the main production areas of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber remain unchanged month - on - month, and the silica price also remains stable month - on - month. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang is reported at 8,504.17 yuan/ton; in Yunnan, it is 9,720.00 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 9,825.00 yuan/ton; and in Inner Mongolia, it is 8,985.71 yuan/ton [43][46] Visible Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of industrial silicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistical caliber is 507,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,800 tons. Among them, the factory inventory is 273,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,100 tons; the market inventory is 191,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons [49] 04. Polysilicon Output - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 26,300 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month. Under the SMM caliber, the polysilicon output in November is 114,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 tons; from January to November, the cumulative output of polysilicon is 1.1897 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07% [54] Operating Rate and Scheduled Production - The operating rate of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber in November is 44.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.91 percentage points. SMM predicts that the polysilicon output in December will be 113,500 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month [57] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 298,800 tons; under the SMM caliber, the polysilicon inventory is 293,000 tons [60] Cost and Profit - As of December 12, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistics is 41,790.63 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of polysilicon is 8,314.63 yuan/ton, with relatively good profits [63] Silicon Wafer - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of silicon wafers under the SMM caliber is 12.15GW, an increase month - on - month. The silicon wafer output in November is 54.37GW, a month - on - month decrease of 6.28GW. From January to November, the silicon wafer output is 603.19GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35%. The silicon wafer inventory is 23.3GW, a slight increase month - on - month. The predicted silicon wafer output in December is 45.7GW, a significant decrease month - on - month [66][69] Battery Cell - Under the SMM caliber, the battery cell output in November is 55.61GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66GW. The operating rate of photovoltaic batteries in November is 56.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75 percentage points. From January to November, the cumulative output of battery cells is 622.72GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.59%. As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories is 9.07GW, an increase month - on - month. The predicted battery cell output in December is 48.72GW, a significant increase month - on - month [75][78] Component - Under the SMM caliber, the component output in November is 46.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2GW. The component operating rate in November is 45.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. From January to November, the cumulative output of components is 524.5GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.13%. As of December 12, 2025, the finished - product inventory of photovoltaic components under the SMM caliber is 30.4GW, remaining stable month - on - month. The predicted component output in December is 39.99GW, a significant decrease compared with November [83][86] 05. Organic Silicon Output - As of December 12, 2025, the DMC output under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,300 tons. The DMC output in November is 209,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,600 tons. From January to November, the cumulative DMC output is 2.2722 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.58% [93] Price and Profit - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of organic silicon under the SMM statistics is reported at 13,600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The gross profit of DMC under the Baichuan Yingfu statistics is 1,709.38 yuan/ton [96] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the DMC inventory under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 44,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,200 tons [99] 06. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export Aluminum Alloy - As of December 12, 2025, the quotation of primary aluminum alloy A356 is 22,410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 130 yuan/ton; the quotation of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21,770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton. From January to October, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy is 15.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is 60%; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is 59.8% [104][107] Export - From January to October, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 598,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9,700 tons or 1.66% [110]

反内卷与查超产推动动力煤筑底，本地消纳与疆煤外送需求共振。2025 年7 月以来，国家能源局及各省 区要求核查煤矿产能，煤价自底部反弹；公司露天煤矿开采成本低，且煤矿周围密布高能耗企业，后续 受益于铁路外运量提升，煤炭业绩有望触底反弹。 煤电联营成本优势显著，煤化工项目开工建设。公司运营4 座火力发电厂，其中准东坑口电站通过输煤 廊道直供电厂，显著降低发电成本，盈利能力稳健。2025 年6 月，公司20.5 亿Nm?/年煤制天然气项目 获核准，建设周期预计约3 年。 公司是输变电制造与能源企业，同时也是新疆优质动力煤生产商。公司业务涵盖高端输变电装备与工程 服务、动力煤产销、火电、多晶硅生产以及新能源工程建设与运营。截至2025 年6 月底，公司煤炭资源 储量约120 亿吨，主要煤种为不粘煤，旗下拥有3 座准东露天煤矿，核定产能7400 万吨/年，未来经各 部门审批有望提升至1.64 亿吨/年。公司已形成煤-电-硅一体化布局，参与疆煤外运、疆电外送，并推进 20 亿Nm?/年煤制天然气项目建设，投产后将接入西气东输管道、进一步增厚公司业绩。 电网改造与出海共振，电气装备景气度持续高企。受"风光大基地"建设和国 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Special Energy (01799) experienced a significant stock price increase, rising over 5% at one point and closing up 3.81% at HKD 7.36, with a trading volume of HKD 8.79 million [1] Industry Developments - A long-anticipated multi-crystalline silicon capacity integration acquisition platform has been officially established, named Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd [1] - Future plans indicate that the retained silicon material capacity of related enterprises will not exceed 1.5 million tons [1] Company Information - Guanghe Qiancheng currently has a registered capital of RMB 3 billion, with major shareholders including Tongwei, GCL, Oriental Hope, Daqo New Energy, and New Special Energy [1] - The company is expected to undergo capital increase, which will lead to changes in the shareholding proportions among existing shareholders, and the equity shares will be freely transferable within the shareholder group [1]

花旗将该合资企业的成立视为收购低效多晶硅产能、促进行业整合的一步，指出协鑫科技在合资实体中 的持股比例，相较于其基于销售量的市占率，似乎低于市场预期，而假如每年多晶硅市场需求同比持 平，目前估计协鑫科技的产能利用率可能从今年约60%下降至明年的约50%。但花旗仍相信，若产能成 功整合，憧憬多晶硅价格将上升，而协鑫科技亦可受惠于利润率扩张，在50%产能利用率下盈利仍可录 得增长。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，中国多晶硅行业推动反内卷，北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司 (光和谦成)日前正式登记成立，被外界视为多晶硅产能整合收购平台，而协鑫科技(03800)在该合资企业 中持股约16.79%，为第二大股东。花旗给予协鑫科技"买入/高风险"评级，目标价为1.72港元。 ...

花旗发布研报称，中国多晶硅行业推动反内卷，北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司(光和谦成)日前正式登 记成立，被外界视为多晶硅产能整合收购平台，而协鑫科技(03800)在该合资企业中持股约16.79%，为 第二大股东。花旗给予协鑫科技"买入/高风险"评级，目标价为1.72港元。 花旗将该合资企业的成立视为收购低效多晶硅产能、促进行业整合的一步，指出协鑫科技在合资实体中 的持股比例，相较于其基于销售量的市占率，似乎低于市场预期，而假如每年多晶硅市场需求同比持 平，目前估计协鑫科技的产能利用率可能从今年约60%下降至明年的约50%。但花旗仍相信，若产能成 功整合，憧憬多晶硅价格将上升，而协鑫科技亦可受惠于利润率扩张，在50%产能利用率下盈利仍可录 得增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Special Energy (01799) saw a significant increase in stock price, rising over 5% in the afternoon trading session, with a current price of 7.36 HKD and a trading volume of 8.79 million HKD, following the establishment of a new polysilicon capacity consolidation acquisition platform [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The newly formed company is named Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., which has been in the works for some time within the industry [1] - The company has a registered capital of 3 billion CNY, with major shareholders including Tongwei, GCL, Dongfang Hope, Daqo Energy, and New Special Energy [1] - Future plans for Guanghe Qiancheng include a capital increase, which will lead to changes in the shareholding proportions among existing shareholders, and the shareholding structure will allow for internal free transfer among shareholders [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The industry is planning to limit the retained silicon material capacity to no more than 1.5 million tons [1]