铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/07 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17025 2038 8.35 三月 17305 2063 10.82 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.82 -950.80 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/07 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -1050 -1220 -1490 -1730 理论价差 506 910 1323 1736 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 25 -35 -100 -165 理论价差 215 336 457 578 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -235 -305 -380 -480 理论价差 215 332 448 564 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 40 50 45 55 理论价差 211 319 426 533 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 630 720 830 1000 锡 5-1 价差 310 理论价差 5522 期现套利跟踪 2025/07/07 铜 当月合约-现货 次月 ...

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -70 -55 理论价差 119 219 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 120 220 理论价差 135 249 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/07/04 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.61 3.90 4.65 0.93 1.19 0.78 伦（三连） 3.62 3.82 4.82 0.95 1.26 0.75 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导 ...

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/03 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/03 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -280 -470 -770 -1000 理论价差 506 910 1323 1736 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -85 -140 -195 -245 理论价差 215 335 456 576 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -165 -235 -325 -435 理论价差 215 331 447 563 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 105 120 120 125 理论价差 210 317 423 529 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 690 780 940 1050 锡 5-1 价差 -1000 理论价差 5546 期现套利跟踪 2025/07/03 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -140 -420 理论价差 237 644 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 25 -60 理论价差 113 243 国 ...

Group 1 - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has shown a bullish signal after three months, entering a relatively certain bullish cycle, with continuous fund inflows [1] - The ETF's underlying index includes six components: copper (approximately 50%), aluminum (approximately 16%), nickel (approximately 11%), tin (approximately 8%), lead (approximately 8%), and zinc (approximately 8%), all maintaining bullish signals at the daily level [1] - As of July 1, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF has seen a net inflow of 81.7191 million yuan over the past five days, reaching a new high in scale at 966 million yuan and a new high in shares at 565 million [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities analysis indicates that the refined copper market remains in a tight balance due to limited production guidance and declining TC/RC fees, with support for copper prices from China's economic stability and a soft landing in the U.S. economy [2] - Current market prices for copper are considered reasonable, with potential for further upward movement contingent on domestic macro policies and overseas economic recovery [2] - Expectations of rising inflation, interest rate cuts, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index may support copper prices in maintaining a strong oscillating trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ (White stars) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not rated [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (White stars) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand fundamentals, and technical trends. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] - Some metals are in a state of high inventory, which affects their price trends and investment opportunities. For example, lithium carbonate has high inventory, and its price rebound is not stable [9] - Market sentiment and external events also have an impact on metal prices. For example, the US dollar index, fiscal policies, and manufacturing PMI data can all affect the price of non - ferrous metals [2][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper in the afternoon session increased in position and rose to 80,600 yuan. The spot copper was reported at 80,205 yuan, with a premium in Shanghai of 200 yuan and in Guangdong rising to 90 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference was still 2,100 yuan. In July, the LME Hong Kong warehouse will be put into use, and attention should be paid to the logistics impact. Technically, the short - term upward trend of Shanghai copper may reach above 81,000 yuan. Long - term trend trading is still recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today. The spot premium in East China continued to decline by 30 yuan to 40 yuan, the processing fee of aluminum rods in South China fell to negative, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase slightly. There are signs of advanced terminal consumption and off - season negative feedback. The recent improvement in macro - risk appetite has promoted the strength of non - ferrous metals. The position of the Shanghai aluminum index is at a high level in recent years, indicating great market divergence. Be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly, and the Baotai ADC12 quotation was stable at 19,500 yuan. The peak - season contract maintained a certain premium. The spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy is large, but the price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 only fluctuates around 400 yuan. If it expands, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy. Recently, the spot transaction price of alumina is 3,000 - 3,100 yuan. The price of Guinea ore has stabilized at 75 US dollars, corresponding to the cost in Shanxi of around 3,000 yuan. The domestic operating capacity has increased for six consecutive weeks to over 93 million tons, and the spot liquidity has improved. In the context of oversupply, the futures market fluctuates weakly, and it is advisable to short at high levels [3] Zinc - Trump promoted the "big and beautiful" bill, the US dollar index continued to decline, and the external metal market was strong, which pulled up the domestic market. The fundamentals of zinc still show an increase in supply and weak demand. The zinc price first declined and then rose during the day, and closed down overall. The weighted position decreased by more than 6,000 lots to 268,800 lots, and the funds flowed out by 184 million yuan. The 600,000 - ton zinc smelter in Huoshaoyun has started feeding production, and the new production capacities of Wanyang and Yunnan Copper have gradually come into production. There is still pressure on the domestic supply side, and zinc is still mainly recommended for short - selling on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded and fluctuated at a high level, and the market trading was active. In terms of spot, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,600 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel was 150 yuan. The loading progress of nickel mines in the Philippines has limited impact on the supply of the ore end, and the calming of the situation in Indonesia is still the main pressure on the ore end. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is quoted at 913 yuan per nickel point, and the support from upstream prices has weakened significantly recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory increased to 35,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased to 38,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory remained at a high level of around one million tons, with the latest report at 992,000 tons. Technically, Shanghai nickel is at the end of the rebound, waiting for the short - selling opportunity to mature [7] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin was driven by the sentiment in the copper market at the end of the session, and increased in position and rose nearly 270,000 yuan in the short term. Today's spot tin was 266,500 yuan, with a premium of 110 yuan over the delivery month. The tin market is in the off - season of consumption, and the price range of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan is considered a relatively high - level area. Contracts in the far - month are recommended for short - selling [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated and rebounded, and the market trading was active. The total market inventory continued to rise to the recent highest level of 137,000 tons. Downstream replenishment increased by 300 tons to 40,635 tons, and traders continued to replenish inventory by 1,000 tons to 37,000 tons. The confidence of downstream enterprises has significantly increased. It is understood that the downstream production schedule in July is relatively strong, and the factor of rushing for exports still exists. Technically, lithium carbonate is in a rebound, but the current inventory is still high, and the ore price is also in the rebound period. The rebound of the futures price is not stable. However, from another perspective, the industrial chain still needs time to digest the new price level around 60,000 yuan, and it is regarded as a short - term fluctuation [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon significantly dropped to 7,765 yuan/ton, and the market trading cooled down. As Yunnan entered the wet season, many industrial silicon plants started to resume production today. At the same time, there is a new expectation of resuming production from a large factory in Xinjiang after the rumor of production reduction. There are frequent fluctuations on the supply side. After the price reached the 8,000 - yuan/ton mark, the chasing - up momentum of long - position funds weakened. Coupled with the possible entry of some hedging funds, the futures price quickly dropped. In addition, the theme of "anti - involution" has once again sparked heated discussions recently, and the market's expectation of supply - side regulation policies has increased. In summary, the price of industrial silicon is at a low level, with a mixture of long and short themes, and its trend is expected to be mainly volatile [10] Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon dropped significantly to 32,700 yuan/ton, and the market trading cooled down, which was affected to some extent by the callback of the industrial silicon futures. The weak reality of polysilicon continues. In July, downstream enterprises continued to revise down their monthly production schedules, and the total inventory of polysilicon remained at a high level of 270,000 tons. The increase in supply from leading enterprises is not clear for the time being. However, from the perspective of the futures price, it is still in a state of discount. Coupled with the recent resurgence of the "anti - involution" theme and the increasing market expectation of supply - side regulation policies, the downward space is still relatively limited, and the trend is expected to maintain a volatile state [11]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/30 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 80110 10134 7.81 三月 79760 9894 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.15 -2612.60 现货出口 1836.25 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22590 2765 8.17 三月 22345 2765 6.23 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.65 -1338.95 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20890 2579 8.10 三月 20480 2579 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.55 -1159.58 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119900 14975 8.01 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2723.01 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Despite concerns about demand uncertainty due to macro and geopolitical factors, the strong reality of copper is increasingly strengthening. There is a potential pattern of buying on dips. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the absence of effective resonance between macro and micro factors, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina shows a tendency of fluctuating upward. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a game between weakening marginal demand and low ingot - casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeezing effects. For waste aluminum, there is still cost support, and continuous attention should be paid to the opportunity of rolling to do long on the AD - AL spread [1][2]. - Nickel: In the short - term, the firm raw material prices provide support, but the market lacks confidence. Mid - term demand may still restrict the fundamentals to be bearish. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel, as well as the changes in overseas policies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.65% to $9,727/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.36% to 78,720 yuan/ton. The import of refined copper and scrap copper in China decreased, and the export window opened. The LME inventory dropped to below 100,000 tons, and the market was worried about extreme market conditions [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, with AO2509 closing at 2,937 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The spot price of alumina declined. The electrolytic aluminum market faced a game between demand and supply - side factors [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.14% to $15,075/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1.19% to 119,490 yuan/ton. The stainless - steel market was in an oversupply state, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the price of waste copper also rose. The LME inventory decreased by 1,200 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 955 tons [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 180 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate price rose, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai changed slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 1,620 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The LME inventory increased by 432 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 222 tons [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 575 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.4%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 142 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The document shows the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It presents the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: The LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are demonstrated [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: It includes the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The document shows the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience [50]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -170 -230 理论价差 146 247 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 170 210 理论价差 175 287 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/06/25 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.59 3.87 4.62 0.93 1.19 0.78 伦（三连） 3.61 3.75 4.79 0.96 1.28 0.75 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: Not clearly rated [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily analysis and investment suggestions for various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., based on factors such as spot prices, inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and international events [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper closed positive. Today's spot copper price is 78415 yuan. Shanghai copper premium shrank to 40 yuan, and Guangdong premium shrank to 30 yuan. With the US manufacturing PMI in expansion and the euro - zone in contraction, and LME copper still stable at the MA20, short positions should be held [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Today, Shanghai aluminum declined with a 150 - yuan premium in East China. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1.5 million tons. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, supply concerns eased. With high market divergence, shorting opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread should be noted. Cast aluminum alloy futures had limited fluctuations. There is a large spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 widens, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy. Alumina spot trading was scarce, and with domestic production capacity in surplus, shorting on rebounds is recommended [3] Zinc - Due to high capital congestion, some short - sellers took profits, causing the price to rise. But downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and the spot premium declined. With supply recovering and demand weak, shorting on rebounds is advised [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined in a volatile manner. With the supply pressure increasing at the ore end and the price support from the upstream weakening, short positions should be held [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed positive with increased positions. With better - than - expected tin concentrate imports in May and weakening consumption, a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts should be held [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded. With the overall inventory increasing and the decline in the downstream inventory, and the slowdown in the decline of Australian ore prices, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon rose slightly. With the expected increase in polysilicon production and the end of organic silicon maintenance, the market rebounded. But with increased supply expected in June, the upside space is limited, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded with reduced positions, possibly due to technical repair. With the terminal demand falling and supply increasing, the imbalance between supply and demand is intensifying, and the trend is expected to be weakly volatile [11]