| Million 国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年10月29日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ななな | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F03107558 Z0021515 | | 液化石油气 文文文 | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价回落,SC12合约日内跌0.81%。上周美国API原油及成品油库存超预期下降,但俄罗斯Rosneft在德 子公司已获得美国制裁豁免,令市场认为上周制裁升级仍有回旋余地。我们认为从地缘博弈的角度来看，中美 贸易博弈的缓和与破局亦限制了敏感油制裁力度和供应犹动的上限，综合OPEC+持续增产背景下的持续累库压 力,我们认为本轮油价反弹的空间有限，择机再次布局原油空单与虚值看涨相结合 ...

要说最近国际能源圈最炸的消息，当属特朗普给俄罗斯送上的"制裁大礼包"。 这位美国总统二话不说，直接对俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司下了狠手，摆明了要切断莫斯科的"战 争钱袋子"。 可这招刚出手，全球油价半天就飙涨6%，印度炼油厂断供的消息紧跟着传来，连欧盟都被架在了火上 烤，这盘围绕石油的大棋，到底是在促和平还是掀波澜？ 制裁猛如虎，俄油出口遭重锤，印度先慌 神特朗普这次的制裁可不是走过场。 按照规则，只要敢买这两家俄企的石油，就得面临被踢出美元金融体系的风险。 要知道，全球石油贸易几乎都靠美元结算，这招等于是掐住了买家的命脉。 国防智库专家汤姆·基廷格看得明白，他直言美国这24小时的动作，比欧盟过去半年的努力都管用，"敢 说别人不敢说的话，这制裁力度确实够硬"。 制裁的连锁反应来得比谁都快。 国际油价几小时内就拉涨6%，加油站还没来得及调价，更棘手的情况已经出现，俄罗斯直接暂停了对 印度最大炼油厂的原油供应。 这一下可戳中了印度的痛处，要知道自乌克兰冲突以来，印度早就成了俄罗斯原油的"头号粉丝"。 数据最能说明问题。 2024年7月，印度每天要从俄罗斯买207万桶原油，占了自己进口总量的44%；即便到了9月， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has imposed sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, following similar actions by the UK, leading to an immediate increase in global oil prices [1] - Lukoil is the second-largest oil producer in Russia, accounting for approximately 2% of global oil production, with operations in 20 countries and a projected net profit of $10 billion for 2024 [1] - The company has begun evaluating potential buyers for its assets and may seek to extend its "business winding-up permit" to ensure uninterrupted operations of its international assets [2] Group 2 - Russia has consistently claimed that Western sanctions lack legitimacy and are counterproductive, with President Putin describing the U.S. actions as "unfriendly" but asserting they will not significantly impact the Russian economy [4] - Russian officials emphasize that pressure tactics are ineffective and advocate for constructive dialogue to achieve results [4]

2025.10. 29 本文字数：2343，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 据媒体数据，截至27日，今年以来印度股市中的外国投资者已经撤出超过170亿美元的资金，降至多年来低点， 与2023年外国资金净流入达200亿美元形成鲜明反差。这也使得印度成为亚洲外国投资组合资金流出情况最严重 的市场。 虽然外资大幅流出，但在美印接近于达成贸易协议消息的提振下，印度Nifty 50指数上周一度连续六日收涨，创 下自9月12日以来最长连涨纪录，逼近历史高位。上周五，Gift Nifty期货上涨至26300点，预示印度股市有望 突破前期高点。Gift Nifty期货是一种以美元计价的衍生品合约，追踪Nifty 50指数的表现。29日，Nifty 50指 数报26011.30点，继续在历史高位附近徘徊。本月也有望录得自3月以来最佳月度表现。 来源：新华社 美印接近达成贸易协议 当前美印接近达成贸易协议，美国可能将对印关税从50%降至15%~16%。据印度媒体报道，作为谈判的关键筹 码，能源与农业成为核心议题。印度方面或同意逐步减少从俄罗斯进口的石油，以换取美方的关税让步。据悉， 该贸易协议的第一阶段成果预计将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, reaching a 10-year high, while the ChiNext Index rose nearly 3%, marking a 4-year high. The North Stock 50 Index surged over 8% [1] Market Performance - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.7% to 4016.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.95% to 13691.38 points, the ChiNext Index climbed by 2.93% to 3324.27 points, and the North Stock 50 Index gained 8.4%. The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North exchanges reached 22,909 billion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - The banking and liquor sectors declined, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw a strong rally. Other sectors such as brokerage, coal, insurance, electricity, and oil also experienced gains. The photovoltaic industry chain stocks surged, and sectors related to lithium mining, solid-state batteries, and rare earth concepts were active [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Securities, the market is expected to maintain a strong performance. The approval of the "15th Five-Year Plan" by the 20th Central Committee is anticipated to boost market confidence. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates in October, which may enhance market risk appetite. Overall, multiple favorable factors are likely to support a strong market performance in the short term [1] Investment Focus - In terms of sector allocation, the mid-term focus is on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors. If market fluctuations occur, attention may shift to sectors with stagnant growth, such as high-dividend and consumer sectors [1]

上周美国对俄罗斯最大两家石油公司实施制裁，原油市场价格直线拉升，布伦特油价从60美元/桶反弹 至66美元/桶，本周油价稍显平静，行情回落。对于这一地缘因素，当前市场如何看待？国泰君安期货 能化高级研究员贺晓勤表示，美国针对俄罗斯制裁的影响将会逐渐消退，油价冲高回落。OPEC+可能 继续增产，原油供应持续宽松。 ...

021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 29 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...

Core Points - The U.S. has imposed severe sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, including secondary sanctions [1][10] - Lukoil announced plans to sell overseas assets to cope with the challenges posed by the sanctions [1][11] - Despite Putin's threats involving nuclear capabilities, the economic difficulties faced by Russia are becoming increasingly apparent [1][9] Sanctions Impact - The sanctions directly target Lukoil and Rosneft, which account for half of Russia's oil exports and provide over 40% of the country's oil and gas revenue [9][10] - Secondary sanctions will affect any entities engaging in transactions with these companies or their subsidiaries [10] - Major clients of Russian oil, including companies in China and India, have ceased imports of Russian oil following the sanctions [10] Lukoil's Response - Lukoil has begun the process of selling its international assets, including a 75% stake in the West Qurna-2 oil field in Iraq, which has a production capacity exceeding 480,000 barrels per day [11][13] - The company is also reviewing potential buyers' offers while maintaining a commitment to "stable operations" [14] - The sale of assets is expected to occur under the gradual approval of the U.S. Treasury [11] Political Dynamics - Putin's calm demeanor in public contrasts with his underlying anxiety regarding the economic impact of the sanctions [3][4] - Trump's administration remains firm, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin dismissing Russian claims as mere "word games" [6][10] - Ukrainian President Zelensky has called for further sanctions against the entire Russian oil industry, not just the two companies [16]

29日，沪指盘中发力上扬，重返4000点上方；创业板指涨超1%，场内超3200股飘绿。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 盘面上看，银行、酿酒、半导体等板块走低，券商、保险、有色、煤炭、石油等板块拉升，海南自贸、 锂矿、量子科技、固态电池概念等活跃。 东莞证券表示，当前市场或有望延续偏强运行态势。一方面，二十届四中全会公报明确了"十五五"时期 经济社会发展的主要目标，新一轮政策部署预计将有效提振市场信心。另一方面，美联储在年内有望继 续实施降息操作，或进一步推动市场风险偏好回升。综合来看，多重积极因素有望对短期市场表现形成 支撑。中期来看，上市公司盈利状况预计将逐步改善，为市场提供额外上行动力。尽管当前企业盈利仍 处于探底企稳阶段，经济修复节奏相对温和，但部分领域已呈现边际改善迹象。此外，未来我国出口预 计仍将保持一定韧性，而内需回暖的持续性可能超出市场预期。整体而言，在政策支持逐步显效的背景 下，预计四季度A股盈利将实现小幅修复，进而对市场形成正向驱动。 截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.37%报4002.83点，深证成指涨0.9%，创业板指涨1.35%，沪深北三市合计成交 14342亿元。 ...

报告日期：2025 年 10 月 29 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：强化逆周期和跨周期调节 中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议发布。其中指出， 提升宏观经济治理效能。强化国家发展规划战略导向作用，加强财政、货币政策 协同，发挥好产业、价格、就业、消费、投资、贸易、区域、环保、监管等政策 作用，促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。强化逆 周期和跨周期调节，实施更加积极的宏观政策，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。 增强宏观政策取向一致性，强化政策实施效果评价，健全预期管理机制，优化高 质量发展综合绩效考核。国内期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一。棕榈油跌超 2%，豆油跌超 1%，PTA、短纤等小幅下跌；玻璃、菜籽粕等涨超 1%，白糖、豆二等小幅上涨。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、玻璃 贵金属：金银大幅回落，昨夜小幅反弹。以色列总理办公室突然发布声明称，在 哈马斯对加沙地带的以军部队开火后，以总理内塔尼亚胡当天指示以军对加沙地 带实施强力打击。以俄乌为代表的地缘政治风险有所降温。最新一轮中美会谈就 解决各自关切的安排达成基本共识，双方同意进一步确定具体细节，并履行各自 国内批准程序。美联 ...