行业报告 | 行业研究周报 食品饮料 证券研究报告 食品饮料周报：政治局会议定调积极，看好饮料旺季催化 市场表现复盘 本周（4 月 21 日-4 月 25 日）食品饮料板块/沪深 300 涨跌幅分别-1.36%/+0.38%。具体板块来 看，本周零食（+4.50%）、软饮料（+2.21%）、其他酒类（+0.06%）、调味发酵品（-0.33%）、肉 制品（-0.53%）、啤酒（-0.72%）、保健品（-1.28%）、白酒 III（-1.75%）。 周观点更新 白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for companies like Haidilao, China Feihe, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed trend in the cost indices of six categories of consumer goods, with spot cost indices for beer, frozen food, dairy products, seasonings, instant noodles, and soft drinks showing changes of +2.69%, +1.67%, +1.09%, -0.12%, -0.18%, and -1.58% respectively, while futures cost indices showed changes of -3.78%, +1.38%, +0.46%, -1.64%, -1.64%, and -2.61% respectively [36]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 2.69% compared to last month, while the futures index decreased by 3.78%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.08% and the futures index by -5.24% [12][37]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.12%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. The price of soybeans has been rising due to limited domestic supply and decreased imports [16][38]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 1.09%, and the futures index increased by 0.46%. Fresh milk prices have stabilized at 3.08 yuan per kilogram, with oversupply continuing to pressure prices [19][39]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles decreased by 0.18%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. Palm oil prices have fallen due to increased production and inventory accumulation [24][40]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index for frozen food increased by 1.67%, and the futures index increased by 1.38%. Vegetable prices have decreased significantly due to increased supply [28][41]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks decreased by 1.58%, and the futures index decreased by 2.61%. Prices are under pressure due to weak demand and capacity expansion [32][42].

白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有增长，或加速行业库存去化节奏，助力行业逐步走出调整。 4 月 25 日中央政治局会议提到，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，同时，还提到将通过创设新工具精准引导资金流向科技创新、 扩大消费、稳定外贸等领域。当前（2025-04-26）申万白酒指数 PE-TTM 为 19.44X，处于近 10 年 11.49%的合理偏低水位，在中央政治局会议积极定调背景下，建议关注后续具体刺激政 策出台为板块带来的估值修复机会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, attributed to a challenging consumer environment and internal channel adjustments [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 449 million yuan, down 18.52% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 34 million yuan, down 58.27% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 31.38% and 7.63%, respectively, both showing a decline of 7.32 and 7.27 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company experienced a net cash flow from operating activities of -67.71 million yuan, reflecting a decrease due to timing differences in procurement payments and increased prepayments for coconut raw materials [2]. Product Performance - Revenue from coconut juice beverage products was 228 million yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year, while revenue from canned fruit products was 155 million yuan, down 25.5% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue for both coconut and canned products was primarily influenced by the overall consumer environment and the company's channel adjustments [1]. Management Changes - The company appointed Mr. Lv Jianliang as Vice President, who has extensive experience in fast-moving consumer goods sales, indicating a strategic focus on channel reform [3]. - The company aims to implement tailored channel strategies based on market conditions and enhance its marketing organization and performance systems [3]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 2.022 billion yuan, 2.272 billion yuan, and 2.539 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.03%, 12.35%, and 11.76% respectively [4]. - Expected net profits for the same period are projected at 157 million yuan, 187 million yuan, and 220 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 6.46%, 18.94%, and 17.99% [4].

Core Viewpoint - Coca-Cola demonstrates resilience in turbulent markets, showcasing its defensive attributes and strong brand power, making it a compelling investment option for stability-focused investors [2][18][19] Market Performance - Coca-Cola's stock surged approximately 19.7% in the three months leading to late April 2025, with a year-to-date gain of about 18.8%, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of around 10% [3][4] - The company's low beta of 0.45 indicates lower volatility compared to the market average, enhancing its appeal during market downturns [4] Dividend Information - Coca-Cola has a dividend yield of 2.83% and has increased its annual dividend for 63 consecutive years, solidifying its status as a Dividend King [6][7] - The latest quarterly dividend was raised by approximately 5.2%, resulting in an annual dividend of $2.04 per share, up from $1.94 in 2024 [7][9] - The dividend payout ratio is reported at 82.6%, but a more sustainable ratio based on comparable EPS is 70.8% [8] Financial Performance - In FY2024, Coca-Cola's organic revenues increased by 12%, driven by an 11% improvement in price/mix, indicating strong pricing power [10] - The Comparable Operating Margin expanded to 30.0% in FY2024 from 29.1% the previous year, despite increased input costs [11] - Comparable EPS increased by 7% to $2.88 in FY2024, even after a significant currency headwind [13] Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - Reported cash flow from operations decreased by 41% to $6.8 billion in FY2024, impacted by a $6.0 billion deposit related to tax litigation [14] - Excluding this item, Free Cash Flow reached $10.8 billion, an 11% increase year over year, highlighting strong cash-generating capabilities [14] Strategic Initiatives - Coca-Cola is expanding its product portfolio in response to evolving consumer preferences, including categories like water, sports drinks, and low/no-sugar options [15] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts maintain a strong consensus Buy rating for Coca-Cola, with a 12-month price target of $75.06, suggesting a potential upside of 4.31% [16] - The company's management projects solid growth in organic revenue and comparable EPS for the fiscal year, despite anticipated currency headwinds [17]

| 等方面带来新的推动力，但整体团队磨合仍需一定时间。 | | --- | | 3. 公司销售费用投入情况？ | | 2025年第一季度公司销售费用金额同比和环比均有 | | 所下降，公司将继续进行渠道精耕和精细化管理，根据不 | | 同市场情况制定不同的销售策略，结合公司战略及销售 | | 规划更有针对性地进行投入，在费用投放和费用结构上 | | 也会进行一定的优化和调整。 | | 面对市场挑战，公司将以"主动求变"的姿态，聚焦 | | 水果罐头+椰基饮料赛道，持续创新，寻求新动能。加强 | | 品类创新，打造差异化产品矩阵，因地制宜拟定区域政 | | 策，提高产品在消费者面前的曝光度，促进产品销售。对 | | 于体现产品质价比的渠道，公司也会进行接触和开拓。 | | 4. 公司水果罐头和椰子水产品的发展规划？ | | 公司坚持高品质的罐头产品，对水果罐头产品研发 | | 思路主要是在便携、休闲化和配料多元化的小包装罐头 | | 产品，同时随着公司多元化渠道的开拓，希望在该渠道巩 | | 固公司水果罐头产品优势，近期也推出了减糖版等不同 | | 配料的水果罐头产品，以满足不同消费者的需求。同时， | | 在 ...

一、主要会计数据和财务指标 | 报告期指标 | 2024年年报 | 2023年年报 | 本年比上年增减(%) | 2022年年报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益（元） | 0.5800 | 0.6000 | -3.33 | 0.5600 | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.31 | 4.22 | 2.13 | 5.7 | | 每股公积金(元) | 1.32 | 1.44 | -8.33 | 2.18 | | 每股未分配利润(元) | 2.07 | 2.10 | -1.43 | 2.31 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | - | - | - | - | | 营业收入(亿元) | 14.15 | 14.12 | 0.21 | 14.04 | | 净利润(亿元) | 2.24 | 2.37 | -5.49 | 2.21 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 13.19 | 13.21 | -0.15 | 13.32 | | 名称 | 持有数量(万股) | 占总股本比 | 增减情况 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 例(%) | (万股) ...

以下文章来源于聪明投资者 ，作者聪明投资者 聪明投资者 . 聚焦优秀投资人和企业家，甄选高质量的内容，追求可累进的成长。更多内容可下载"聪明投资 者"APP，官网：www.cmtzz.cn 编者按 "长期投资之父"菲利普·卡雷特（Philip Carret）说，投资的天才之处，在于一半靠耐心，一半靠复利。他 有资格这么说，毕竟他已经成功投资了七十多年。 卡雷特出生于1896年11月29日，马萨诸塞州林恩人，早年毕业于哈佛大学化学系。第一次世界大战期 间，他驾驶着索普威思骆驼战机服役于美国空军。战后他短暂进入哈佛商学院，但很快辍学，转而投身 金融业，最初成为一名债券销售员。从1922年起，卡雷特在《巴伦周刊》任职四年，当时这份周刊仍由 创始人克拉伦斯·巴伦亲自管理。1927年，他成为Blyth,Witter&Co.（即后来的Paine Webber前身）首席经 济学家，并管理该公司旗下的封闭式基金。1928年，他独立创办了先锋基金（Pioneer Fund），成为美国 历史最悠久的开放式共同基金之一，并以极低的换手率和极强的长期回报穿越了大萧条、二战、70年代 滞涨以及无数市场动荡，直到1983年他卸任基金经理 ...

分渠道来看，2025Q1传统渠道相对承压较大，一方面新零售渠道快速发展，抢占线下传统商超的需求， 另一方面公司主动进行传统渠道网点优化。同时公司积极拥抱零食专营连锁渠道，2024年与头部零食专营 系统达成合作，2025Q1积极开拓中腰部零食专营系统，Q1实现收入4644.6万元，环比2024Q4增加614.9万 元，零食量贩渠道保持环比提速，全年预计将实现较好收入增量。 成本上涨叠加业务结构变化导致毛利率下降，费用率有所提升，净利率下降2025Q1公司毛利率同 比-7.32pct至31.38%，一方面部分原材料价格有所上涨，另一方面零食专营渠道和原料销售业务毛利率相 对较低。Q1销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率/财务费用率分别同比+0.14pct/+1.53pct/-0.03pct/+0.36pct， 公司期间费用率有所提升。综合来看，Q1净利率同比-7.27pct至7.63%。 主业需求承压，新渠道开拓较好，维持"增持"评级 欢乐家2025Q1收入4.5亿元，同比-18.5%，归母净利润0.3亿元，同比-58.3%。收入业绩仍有承压，我们下 调2025-2026年盈利预测，并新增2027年盈利预测，预计2 ...

以下文章来源于财经天下WEEKLY ，作者财经天下 财经天下WEEKLY . 《财经天下》周刊官方账号，提供有品质的深度报道，讲述中国企业在时代浪潮中的精彩故事。 泰国富二代创办的if椰子水，凭借精准踩中健康消费趋势、轻资产的高效运营模式，以及差异化产品设 计等策略，在中国卖爆了，一年创收10个亿。最近，更是交了招股书，打算闯关港交所。不过，这个 椰子水老大躺着赚钱的好日子结束了，如今正在被9.9元中国同行绞杀。 图片来源：if天猫旗舰店 中国人买爆泰国椰子水 4月20日的晚上，北京朝阳区的一个健身房里，一场私教课结束后，30岁的张笑，拧开一瓶透明塑料瓶 装的椰子水，仰头灌下一大口。饮料进入喉咙后，她扫了一眼瓶身的配料表——100%椰子水。这款名 为if的椰子水，她近段时间以来常喝，因为没有任何添加剂。 距离她1000多公里的安徽，90后然然当天也下单了一箱if椰子水，这是她本月第三次采购，她家饮水 机旁上次购买的一箱if椰子水，如今只剩下一瓶。 if，是当下最火的椰子水，市场份额排名第一，是第二名超吉椰的四倍多。7年前，泰国富二代彭萨克 带领if进入中国市场时，很少有人能够想到，这个品牌会在多年后以迅猛之姿 ...