Core Insights - On October 17, China Aluminum conducted a block trade with a transaction volume of 580,000 shares and a transaction value of 4.9126 million yuan, at a price of 8.47 yuan per share [1] - The buyer was Ping An Securities Co., Ltd., and the seller was China International Capital Corporation [1] Trading Activity - In the last three months, China Aluminum has recorded a total of six block trades, amounting to a cumulative transaction value of 30.1571 million yuan [1] - The closing price of China Aluminum on the day of the trade was 8.47 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.51% [1] - The daily turnover rate was 2.13%, with a total trading volume of 2.408 billion yuan and a net outflow of main funds amounting to 34.1802 million yuan [1] Financing Data - The latest financing balance for China Aluminum is 3.373 billion yuan, with an increase of 64.1925 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 1.94% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently consolidating, with the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) experiencing fluctuations, ultimately closing down by 1.69% despite an early gain of over 2% [1][3]. Market Performance - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) had a total trading volume of 57.74 million yuan and a latest scale of 606 million yuan as of October 16, with an average daily trading volume of 12.2 million yuan in October [1]. - Among the three ETFs tracking the same index, this ETF leads in both scale and liquidity [1]. Component Stocks - Notable performers include the copper leader Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, which hit the daily limit, and lithium leaders Shengxin Lithium and Zhongfu Industrial, both rising over 2% [3]. - The top ten gainers included five gold leaders, with Western Gold rising over 3% and Zhongjin Gold increasing over 2% [3]. - Conversely, stocks like Bowei Alloy and Chuangjiang New Materials saw declines exceeding 6%, negatively impacting the index [3]. Gold Price Influences - International gold prices are approaching 4,400 USD/ounce, driven by three main factors: 1. Historical trends show gold prices typically rise during the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycles, with an average increase of 6% within 60 days of such announcements [4]. 2. The recent U.S. government shutdown has heightened risk aversion, increasing demand for gold [5]. 3. The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and diversification of reserve currencies is expected to sustain global central bank gold purchases, with global official gold reserves reaching a record high of 36,274 tons as of June [5]. Future Gold Price Predictions - Some institutions remain optimistic about gold prices, with Bank of America predicting a potential rise to 6,000 USD in spring 2024 [6]. - Current allocations of gold in global investment portfolios are relatively low, indicating room for growth [6]. Sector Opportunities - The rare earth sector is expected to see significant performance in Q3, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shenghe Resources projecting substantial profit increases due to rising prices and capacity releases [6]. - In lithium, advancements in solid-state battery technology are anticipated to boost demand, with leading companies maintaining a high self-sufficiency rate in lithium supply [7]. - Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply disruptions, particularly from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is crucial for energy transition and new production capabilities [7]. Long-term Outlook - The nonferrous metals sector is positioned as a key player in the current commodity bull market, driven by long-term capital expenditure cycles and increasing demand for strategic metal resources [8]. - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) offers a diversified investment approach across various metals, including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, which can mitigate risks associated with investing in a single metal [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The international spot gold price has reached a record high of over $4380 per ounce, driven by increased trade tensions, the US government shutdown, and dovish statements from Fed officials. The value of gold as a hedge has been further enhanced by geopolitical risks and the trend of central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization. The large capital inflow into the Shanghai gold futures contract indicates strong market sentiment [3]. - **Copper**: Demand is suppressing copper price increases, but rising expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, macro factors are the core drivers of aluminum prices. With the expansion of China's core CPI in September and expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the reduction of inventory, the Shanghai aluminum futures may show a slightly upward trend. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its price is declining. Cast aluminum alloy has strong support due to raw material shortages and policy factors [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of domestic and overseas zinc markets are different, with the domestic market showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Low inventory provides short - term price support, and attention should be paid to the opening of export windows and potential macro - driven factors [63]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: In the nickel industry chain, the quota for nickel ore in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is in a peak season, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are sluggish after the holiday, but export prospects are positive. Macro factors such as Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations should be monitored [77]. - **Tin**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand. Supply is constrained by the delayed resumption of Burmese mines and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, while demand is divided between weak traditional electronics and strong high - end solder demand from AI servers and new energy vehicles. Low inventory supports prices, but high prices are suppressing trading [91]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase, which may support the futures price [106]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly, but inventory pressure limits the upside. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The international spot gold price has broken through $4380 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract has the largest capital inflow in the domestic commodity futures market [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Trade tensions, the US government shutdown, Fed officials' dovish statements, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are the main factors driving the rise in gold prices [3]. Copper - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 84,390 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.78%. London copper has a daily increase of 0.45% [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Demand restricts price increases, but interest rate cut expectations may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. Aluminum - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai aluminum futures main contract is 20,910 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Alumina futures main contract price is 2,800 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0.36% [39]. - **Market Outlook**: Macro factors drive short - term price trends. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai zinc futures main contract is 21,815 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. London zinc has a daily increase of 0.85% [64]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic and overseas zinc markets have different fundamentals, and low inventory provides short - term price support [63]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel futures main contract is 121,160 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0%. The stainless steel futures main contract price is 12,630 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0% [78]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is booming, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are slow, but export prospects are positive [77]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai tin futures main contract is 280,750 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.21%. London tin has a daily increase of 1.01% [92]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand, and low inventory supports prices [91]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 75,700 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 760 yuan [107]. - **Market Outlook**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which may support the futures price [106]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Data**: The latest price of industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,430 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 2.03%. Polysilicon and other product prices are also provided in the report [117]. - **Market Outlook**: As the dry season approaches, industrial silicon production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Tin - Supply remains tight with low processing fees and uncertain future supply from Myanmar. Demand is weak, especially in traditional sectors, despite some support from AI and photovoltaic industries. Short - term macro - economic factors may cause price fluctuations. Consider buying on dips due to strong supply - side factors. If Myanmar's supply recovers, prices may weaken; otherwise, prices may remain high and volatile [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Cost support is evident, but raw material supply is tight. Supply is restricted by raw material availability and policy uncertainty, while demand is gradually recovering. Inventory is starting to decline, but the absolute level is still high. ADC12 prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [3]. Alumina - The market is in an oversupply situation. Spot prices are expected to remain under pressure, and the futures main contract may fluctuate between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include cost - profit changes and policies in resource - rich countries [4]. Aluminum - Macro - economic factors are favorable, providing support for aluminum prices. The fundamental situation is in a tight balance, with supply shortages in some areas and a mixed demand situation. High prices are suppressing downstream procurement. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [4]. Nickel - Macro - economic uncertainties exist. The industry is facing pressure, with nickel - iron prices under stress and shrinking profits. Inventory is increasing, and stainless steel demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [5]. Stainless Steel - Macro - economic risks are increasing, and raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. However, downstream demand during the peak season has not met expectations, and inventory is putting pressure on prices. The short - term market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market is strong, driven by news and strong downstream demand. Production and demand are both increasing, and the industry is in a de - stocking phase. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract price center around 74000 - 76000 yuan/ton [10]. Copper - High copper prices are suppressing demand. Macro - economic factors such as the approaching Sino - US tariff deadline and US employment data may affect prices. Copper supply shortages are a long - term concern, which will support copper prices. The main contract is expected to find support between 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [12][14]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.18% to 281200 yuan/ton, and LME 0 - 3 decreased by 15.05% to - 130.01 dollars/ton [2]. - **Internal - External Ratios and Import Profits/Losses**: Import losses decreased by 8.72% to - 13986.17 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.92 [2]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 5.71% to - 370 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: August tin ore imports decreased by 0.11%, and September SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF weekly inventory decreased by 8.55% to 5879 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.32% to 7786 tons [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21050 yuan/ton, and some scrap - refined spreads increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: September recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 tons, and the recycled aluminum alloy production rate increased by 7.73% to 57.54% [3]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 2.84% to 5.48 tons [3]. Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.14% to 20950 yuan/ton, and alumina prices in some regions decreased [4]. - **Ratios and Profits/Losses**: Import losses decreased by 107.2 yuan/ton to - 2253 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.59 [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: September alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.39% to 62.70 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.73% [4]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.12% to 122150 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 increased by 2.60% to - 206 dollars/ton [5]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Costs**: The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from integrated MHP decreased by 0.62% to 116448 yuan/ton [5]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 0.25% to 28550 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.75% to 29575 tons [5]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.78% to 13000 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased by 8.82% to 315 yuan/ton [7]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.48% to 938 yuan/nickel point [7]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 tons, and stainless steel imports increased by 60.48% to 11.72 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 0.56% to 50.18 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% to 8.32 tons [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 792.86% to - 1940 yuan/ton [10]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 decreased by 1060 yuan/ton to - 1120 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: September lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 tons [10]. - **Inventory**: September lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 0.38% to 64539 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 32930 tons [10]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.07% to 85175 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [12][14]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [12][14]. - **Fundamental Data**: September electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 tons, and electrolytic copper imports decreased by 10.99% to 26.43 tons [12][14]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 6.73% to 17.75 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 15.42% to 10.97 tons [12][14].

Group 1 - Cangzhou Mingzhu's controlling shareholder is set to change to Guangzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, acquiring 19.58% voting rights through the transfer of 167 million shares [1] - Guotou Fengle's application for a private placement of shares has been approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, moving forward to the registration process with the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - Hunan Baiyin plans to adjust its share repurchase price ceiling to 8 CNY per share, with a total repurchase fund between 92.6 million and 123 million CNY [2] Group 2 - Zancore's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2.71% of the company's total shares, amounting to 324,790 shares [3] - Tongfu Microelectronics intends to reduce its holdings by up to 1% of the total shares, equating to 15,176,000 shares [4] - Huajin Capital's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the total shares, which is 10,341,200 shares [5] Group 3 - Ansheng Technology and partners are establishing a joint venture with a registered capital of 788 million CNY for a battery recycling project [6] - Huaten Technology plans to acquire 100% of Huayi Microelectronics through a combination of cash and stock issuance [7] - CICC has received approval to register a 10 billion CNY technology innovation corporate bond [9] Group 4 - Taijia shares' shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the total shares, which is 755,210 shares [10] - Nanfang Energy expects a net profit of 342 million CNY for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 125.08% [12] - Shunbo Alloy's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2.05% of the total shares, which is 1,372,900 shares [14] Group 5 - Shenzhen Energy is participating in the establishment of a 1 billion CNY renewable energy industry fund, focusing on investments in various energy sectors [15] - China Electric Port's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1% of the total shares, which is 759,900 shares [16] - Liangpinpuzi's controlling shareholder's transfer of control has been terminated due to unmet conditions [17] Group 6 - Jingsheng Electromechanical's five executives plan to reduce their holdings by up to 277,620 shares, which is 0.21% of the total shares [19] - Shaoneng shares' shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the total shares, which is 31,444,100 shares [20] - Xiaoming shares' shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2.97% of the total shares, which is 557,030 shares [21] Group 7 - Fangzheng Electric's shareholders and executives plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3.37% of the total shares [22] - Hainan Huatie is under investigation by the CSRC for suspected information disclosure violations [23] - Qianli Technology has submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and the remarks of multiple Fed officials have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, increasing policy support and boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. In terms of assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; among commodity sectors, black is short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and Fed officials' remarks have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and policies have increased support, boosting risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, black is short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as coal, banking, insurance, and port shipping, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the acceleration of domestic economic growth and the increase in policy support, risk appetite has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to rise. With the increase in risk aversion and the expectation of Fed rate cuts, spot gold reached a record high. Short - term, precious metals are strongly running, and the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term, long positions can be held or reduced on rallies; medium - and long - term, buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was weak on Thursday, but the futures price rebounded slightly. Market expectations have improved due to the approaching Fourth Plenary Session and expectations for the APEC meeting. The real demand has improved marginally, and steel supply may decline stage - by - stage. The steel market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, while the futures price declined. Iron production is still high, and steel mills' restocking has ended. With the narrowing of profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded from the bottom. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased due to the decline in steel production. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the Lanzhou charcoal market is stable. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly in a range. Supply has increased marginally, and there is an expectation of anti - involution, forming a bottom support. Demand has improved marginally during the traditional peak season but is currently slowing down. It is expected to run weakly in a short - term range [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: From January to September, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. Copper social inventory is at a relatively high level. The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be high in 2026. The US economy has uncertainties, which are potential risk points. In the short - and medium - term, domestic electrolytic copper production is high, demand is facing a test, and de - stocking is less than expected [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, aluminum prices were strong. Aluminum social inventory decreased significantly, and aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The smelting profit is high, supply is rigid, imports are high, and demand is weakening marginally. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tightening globally. The demand has improved slightly but remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support from low smelting start - up and peak - season expectations, but the upside is limited by high - price consumption suppression and macro risks [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's statement about meeting with Putin and the upcoming high - level Sino - US and Russia - US talks have raised expectations of increased Russian oil supply. Western sanctions and Sino - US trade tensions have also affected demand. Crude oil prices are expected to decline [14]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices test support, the probability of asphalt breaking through support has increased. Demand is nearing the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is difficult for asphalt to have a strong upward drive [14][15]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly. Production has reached a new high, and the 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt digestion. It is expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly due to rumors of storage and capacity regulation [14]. - **PX**: PX is weakly oscillating. Although it gets some demand support from PTA's high - start, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [15]. - **PTA**: After the decline of crude oil prices, polyester is in a low - level oscillation. Downstream demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is increasing. PTA prices will continue to run weakly [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The sentiment of ethylene glycol is weak. Port inventory is rising, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. It is expected to continue to be in an oversupply situation in late October [16]. - **PP**: The PP market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. New capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: The supply of LLDPE is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is rising slightly. It is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and its future trend depends on the implementation of export policies [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the CBOT November soybean contract rose. Strong domestic demand offset trade concerns, and the September soybean crushing volume reached a record high [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the start - up rate returned to normal. However, the oil mill inventory is under pressure, and the fourth - quarter soybean supply may be loose. Without guidance from US soybeans, it may oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade dynamics for rapeseed meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, the short - term risk of rapeseed oil has decreased. Soybean oil prices may be relatively weak due to inventory pressure [21]. - **Palm Oil**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle. In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, suppressing prices, but exports also increased, providing some support [21]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has increased, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, the quantity is small. With the decrease in temperature and the recovery of consumption, pig prices may stabilize [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold approaching $4400 per ounce, leading to significant gains in the A-share market, particularly in the non-ferrous metal sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold stocks led the surge in the A-share market on October 17, with the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) rising over 2% during intraday trading [1] - Key stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy increased by over 8%, while Western Gold and Silver Nonferrous rose by more than 6% [1] Group 2: Policy and Economic Environment - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, has issued a "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Non-Ferrous Metal Industry (2025-2026)," marking a new phase of institutional support and structural prosperity for the industry [3] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new round of interest rate cuts, potentially transforming the global liquidity environment [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are evident, with limited new copper mine discoveries and slow capital expenditure leading to tightened global copper supply, which is expected to push prices higher [4] - Demand is being driven by sectors such as AI, new energy, and infrastructure upgrades, with significant increases in the demand for copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Non-ferrous metals are positioned as key players in the current commodity bull market, supported by long-term capital expenditure cycles and rising global manufacturing investment [5] - The industry is expected to experience a core bull market over the next one to two years, particularly in industrial non-ferrous metals, small metals, and gold [5] Group 5: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) and its associated funds is recommended to capture the overall sector performance while mitigating risks [7]

Summary of the Conference Call on Aluminum Industry Outlook Industry Overview - The focus is on the aluminum sector, particularly electrolytic aluminum, with a positive outlook for 2025 and beyond, anticipating an economic bottom early in the year [1][3][12]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Positioning**: The aluminum sector is currently undervalued relative to gold, with valuations below the 40th percentile over the past two years. Most mainstream companies in this sector have single-digit valuations, aligning with market expectations [1][3]. 2. **Profitability and Demand**: The profit margin for electrolytic aluminum is approximately 4,500 RMB per ton, indicating significant potential for profit improvement with price increases. The expected global demand growth for electrolytic aluminum is between 3% and 5% under normal economic conditions [1][6][10]. 3. **Supply Dynamics**: Global electrolytic aluminum production is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 2% over the next three years, with cautious expansion from Chinese enterprises due to resource constraints [1][6][12]. 4. **Inventory Levels**: Current global electrolytic aluminum inventory is critically low, around 150,000 tons, equivalent to about one week of turnover. This low inventory level could lead to market squeezes and price spikes if shortages occur [1][8]. 5. **Economic Recovery Impact**: A potential economic recovery coupled with liquidity easing could trigger significant price increases and performance improvements in the electrolytic aluminum sector, making it a top investment choice [2][11][12]. Additional Important Points - **Defensive Attributes**: The aluminum sector exhibits strong dividend characteristics and stability in capital flows, making it a defensive investment during periods of risk aversion [6][9]. - **Regional Supply Constraints**: In the U.S. and Europe, high electricity prices and resource scarcity hinder the resumption of production in major aluminum companies, limiting overall supply growth [9]. - **Domestic Demand Trends**: In the domestic market, demand is expected to see slight declines in construction and photovoltaic sectors, while the automotive sector may experience modest growth due to increased aluminum usage in electric vehicles [10]. - **Future Variables**: The end of geopolitical conflicts could significantly boost demand for basic metals like copper and aluminum, further enhancing the market outlook [11]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the favorable conditions for the aluminum sector, particularly electrolytic aluminum, suggesting it as a strategic investment opportunity in the coming years.