Group 1 - The report emphasizes the dual-driven model of upgrading traditional industries and nurturing emerging industries, focusing on the transformation of sectors like petrochemicals and steel through digital and green technology [1][2] - Shanghai's traditional manufacturing industry has achieved an 85% coverage rate in intelligent transformation, which is expected to accelerate energy efficiency improvements and structural optimization [2] - Emerging industries such as intelligent connected new energy vehicles and low-altitude economy are prioritized, with Shanghai opening 1,200 kilometers of testing roads for autonomous vehicles, accumulating over 10 million kilometers of testing mileage [2] Group 2 - The report highlights the low-altitude economy as a new focus area, with Shanghai laying out plans in core fields like drones and eVTOL, which will enhance the collaborative effects across the industry chain [2] - The satellite internet and aerospace industries are expected to synergize with Shanghai's technological reserves in integrated circuits and artificial intelligence, creating a "space-ground integration" industrial ecosystem [2] - The ongoing industrial policy in Shanghai is projected to strengthen the foundation of the real economy, with new productive forces becoming the core driver of economic growth, benefiting the Yangtze River Delta and the national industry [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall market is in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the future. The short - term decline is due to the weakening of market sentiment driven by the correction in the stock market, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. Technically, the futures price is oscillating in a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton and may face a direction selection in the short term [2]. - The demand for iron ore is in the off - season, with iron water production likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel apparent demand may be due to year - end rush construction. The global iron ore shipment is slightly rising but is expected to decline later due to southern hemisphere seasonal factors. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory is rising. Technically, the futures price is under pressure, but there may be support near the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot Roll - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties increased slightly, the inventory continued to rise, and the apparent demand decreased month - on - month [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3265 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) was 3230 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from last week; the spot price of hot - rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) was 3260 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or kill down. Wait for the later bottom signal to be confirmed and then add positions on dips. Pay attention to whether there is a possibility of an effective downward breakthrough in the short term [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The demand is in the off - season, and iron water production is likely to decline seasonally. The supply is affected by southern hemisphere seasonal factors, with the global shipment expected to decline. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory is rising [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 777.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.33% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract was 102 US dollars/dry ton, down 2.46% from last week. The price of Macfarlane powder (Qingdao Port) was 773 yuan/wet ton, down 2.03% from last week [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or kill down [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In late January 2026, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 717 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8 million tons, or 1.1%. It was 4 million tons less than at the beginning of the year, a decrease of 0.6%, and 17 million tons less than the same period last year, a decrease of 2.3% [6]. - Indonesian mining officials said on Tuesday that due to Indonesia's large - scale production reduction plan, local miners have suspended spot coal exports. The production quotas issued to major miners last month were 40% - 70% lower than the 2025 level [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure, and its futures prices are weak. The support for coal - coke replenishment is gradually weakening, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures prices are oscillating. There are disturbances on the supply side of glass, but the oversupply situation limits the upside space of glass and soda ash futures prices. Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the futures prices are under pressure, but there is still replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, and the cost side still provides support. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and the post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand on the real - world side remain to be verified, and attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the prices of finished steel products [2] Carbon Element - The growth space for coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. As domestic coal mines approach the holiday, production will gradually decline, and the fundamentals of coking coal will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [2] Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. When the futures prices rise to a high level, they may face selling - hedging pressure. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. In the long - term, the futures prices may still oscillate around the cost valuation [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances on the glass supply side, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress prices, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the prices will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no expectation of negative feedback, and the cost side provides support. The futures prices are expected to oscillate widely. The spot market transactions are generally weak, the profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the iron - water output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has slightly increased. The demand for building materials has weakened seasonally, while the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience [8] - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the spot and futures prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, the arrivals have continued to weaken, and the supply side is subject to weather - related disturbance expectations. The iron - water output has slightly decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' replenishment has accelerated. The port inventory has continued to increase, and the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand both decline seasonally, and the price in East China has increased slightly. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the finished steel products. The arrival volume of steel mills will decline seasonally, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and blast furnaces will decrease, and the inventory of steel enterprises has increased [10] - **Coke**: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices remain oscillating. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [11][13] - **Coking Coal**: The online auctions show a mixed trend of rising and falling, and the futures prices oscillate. The domestic coal mine production will gradually decline before the holiday, and the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [14] - **Glass**: As the holiday approaches, the demand weakens, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The supply may be disturbed, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high, and the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress prices [15] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production remains at a high level, and the prices oscillate. The overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [15][18] - **Manganese - Silicon**: The inventory pressure remains high, and the prices fluctuate around the cost. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the production - control efforts of manufacturers [19] - **Silicon - Iron**: The trading volume is gradually decreasing, and the upside of the futures prices is under pressure. The market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity before the holiday suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. The futures prices are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [21]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 4 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 4 / 7 / 7 / 4 | | 卒」卒4日听刊 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | に | 橡胶 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 红枣 | 自糖 | 燃油 | | | | 铁矿石 | 多晶硅 | 三十债 | | | | 甲醇 | 棉纱 | 十债 | | | | РУС | 尿素 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 塑料 | 棉花 | 二债 | | | | 生猪 | 胶版印刷纸 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 原油 | 玉米 | 五债 | | | | 液化石油气 | 乙二醇 | 沥青 | | | ...

Fixed Income Research - The net financing amount is at a historically high level, indicating that the logic of asset scarcity has dissipated. The overall change in the issuance guidance rates published by the trading association has mostly decreased by 5 to 1 basis points. In January, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with only medium-term notes seeing a decrease in issuance amount, while other varieties saw increases. The net financing amount for credit bonds increased month-on-month, with medium-term notes showing a decrease, while other varieties saw increases. Corporate bonds, directional tools had negative net financing, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds had positive net financing [2][3]. - In the secondary market, the transaction scale of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with transaction amounts for all varieties declining. The yield on credit bonds remained low and fluctuated, with most varieties showing a month-on-month decline in average yield. The credit spread for most varieties narrowed month-on-month, with the varieties that widened mainly concentrated in the 7-year term. Most varieties' spreads are at historical lows. From an absolute return perspective, insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand will continue to drive the recovery of credit bonds. Although fluctuations are inevitable due to various factors, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds remain insufficient. In the long run, future yields are still in a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments remains feasible [3]. Fund Research - In January, the market for actively managed equity funds saw a significant increase in issuance, with a total of 88 new funds issued, amounting to 91.48 billion yuan. The issuance of actively managed equity funds and passive equity funds was 41.70 billion units and 19.62 billion units, respectively, with a significant increase in the issuance of actively managed equity funds. Overall, the issuance market for equity funds has warmed up significantly, especially for actively managed equity funds [6][7]. - The performance of equity markets was outstanding in January, with all types of funds showing varying degrees of increase. The average increase for commodity funds was the largest at 17.92%. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the mid-cap balanced style had the largest increase at 8.99%, while the large-cap value style had the smallest increase at approximately 4.22% [8]. Industry Research - The valuation repair of the real estate chain can continue, with positive signals from the government regarding real estate policies. The market is transitioning from a large-scale expansion phase to a focus on quality improvement. The goal is to actively construct a new development model for real estate, emphasizing both short-term and long-term strategies. The sales recovery process will significantly impact bond valuations, and investors with a higher risk appetite may consider early positioning, especially in companies showing strong performance in new financing and sales recovery [4][10]. - In the paper industry, several leading companies have announced price increases for white cardboard and corrugated paper, with expected price hikes of 200 yuan/ton for white cardboard and 30-50 yuan/ton for corrugated paper. The upcoming annual maintenance period for paper companies will disrupt supply, while the approaching Spring Festival will boost packaging demand from e-commerce, food, and beverage sectors, supporting price increases [12]. - In the metals industry, the steel sector is expected to continue a weak performance due to the Spring Festival holiday, with production and demand both shrinking. The copper market is also anticipated to see inventory accumulation due to reduced production activities during the holiday, with a focus on post-holiday demand verification [13][15].

Group 1 - The central government's new policy document aims to anchor agricultural modernization and promote rural revitalization, focusing on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing targeted assistance, and ensuring stable income growth for farmers [1] - The document outlines six key areas: improving agricultural production capacity, implementing regular precise assistance, promoting stable income growth for farmers, advancing rural construction tailored to local conditions, strengthening institutional innovation, and enhancing the Party's leadership over agricultural work [1] Group 2 - Precious metals experienced a rebound influenced by two main factors: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which boosted the dollar index, and a significant short-term increase in precious metals prices, particularly silver, leading to profit-taking and increased market volatility [2][20] - The long-term support factors for gold remain intact, and it is expected to return to a steady upward trend after market adjustments, while silver prices are anticipated to remain under pressure in the short term [21] Group 3 - The crude oil market saw a 1.78% increase, influenced by geopolitical tensions involving U.S. military actions against Iranian drones and concerns over increased Venezuelan oil exports exacerbating supply surplus fears [3][15] - The domestic retail prices for refined oil have increased, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [10] Group 4 - The U.S. stock market indices experienced a decline, with significant fluctuations in the military and banking sectors, while the overall market outlook for February remains positive due to seasonal trends and policy support [4][12] - The financing balance decreased by 6.009 billion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [12] Group 5 - The international shipping index for European routes increased by 5.22%, with expectations of continued downward pressure on spot freight rates leading up to the holiday season [34]

Group 1: Community Governance and Volunteerism - The community of Liaojiashan has effectively utilized volunteers, with 131 party members leading 8 volunteer teams, significantly contributing to community governance and activities such as year-end cleaning [5] - Approximately 20% of the community's permanent residents are volunteers, showcasing a strong culture of volunteerism and community engagement [5] - The community has received over 30 national and provincial honors, including being recognized as a "National Rural Governance Demonstration Village" [5] Group 2: Cultural Heritage and Non-material Cultural Inheritance - The art of embroidery in the Hmong culture, which requires extensive manual labor, is at risk of being lost as younger generations struggle to learn the craft [7] - Efforts to innovate traditional clothing and integrate embroidery techniques into modern products have been initiated to preserve this cultural heritage [7] - The call for increased funding for cultural heritage sites and improved incentive mechanisms for inheritors has been emphasized to ensure the continuation of these traditions [7] Group 3: Technology and Innovation in Education - Hunan University of Technology has established a comprehensive incubation system, resulting in the creation of over 100 student-led tech startups [9] - The university's collaboration with local industries has led to significant advancements in lithium battery technology, with a partner company achieving an annual output value exceeding 200 million yuan [9] - A proposal for a provincial-level fund to support the commercialization of university research outcomes has been made to enhance the connection between academia and industry [9] Group 4: Agricultural Innovation and Rural Revitalization - The rice planting cooperative led by a young entrepreneur has adopted mechanization and technology to improve farming efficiency and reduce costs by 100 to 150 yuan per mu [11] - The cooperative provides comprehensive agricultural services to local farmers, enhancing productivity across 12,000 mu of farmland [11] - There is a call for more young individuals to engage in agriculture and contribute to rural revitalization efforts [11] Group 5: Accessibility and Disability Rights - Hunan has taken the lead in establishing a "disability-friendly province," with initiatives involving disabled representatives in public facility assessments [13] - The implementation of local legislation aimed at improving accessibility for disabled individuals has been highlighted, addressing practical needs such as the prohibition of occupying blind paths [13] - The upcoming 2029 National Games and Special Olympics in Hunan is expected to further enhance the systematic upgrade of accessibility environments [13] Group 6: Skills Development in the Steel Industry - The steel industry has seen significant productivity improvements, with innovative practices leading to an annual increase in production capacity by nearly one million tons [16] - A focus on training and mentoring has resulted in the development of skilled workers, including national role models and skilled masters [16] - Recommendations for combining traditional apprenticeship models with modern training methods have been made to attract youth to skilled trades [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry in China [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes a long-term perspective on the market, suggesting that despite short-term volatility in precious metals, the long-term bull market remains intact due to unresolved U.S. debt issues [7][12] - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked material benefiting from the re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with expectations for price increases due to supply tightness [7][13] - The copper sector is viewed positively, with the gold-to-copper ratio reaching historical highs, indicating potential for copper price increases amid supply constraints [7][14] - For precious metals, investors are advised to wait for price stabilization before increasing positions, as significant price fluctuations have been observed recently [7][15] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the dynamics of precious metals, noting significant price drops in gold and silver, with gold prices reaching $4,880 per ounce and silver prices at $85 per ounce during a recent week [7][12] - The zinc market is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by infrastructure projects in developing regions, with a noted decrease in zinc smelting fees indicating supply constraints [7][13] - The copper market is projected to maintain upward momentum due to a high gold-to-copper ratio and ongoing supply challenges from major mining companies [7][14] - The report suggests a cautious approach to precious metals, recommending that investors wait for market stabilization before making new investments [7][15] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with a slight decrease in iron output and weakening demand for rebar [16][21] - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, with total steel inventory at 891 thousand tons, reflecting a 2.56% weekly increase [23] - Steel prices have generally declined, with the overall steel price index down by 0.20%, and specific products like cold-rolled steel experiencing a 0.44% decrease [35][36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [39] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with December 2025 production reaching 1.5858 million units, a 9.02% increase year-on-year [43] - Lithium prices have shown a notable decline, with the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 159,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 5.62% decrease [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, the total amount of stock reduction by executives and their related parties in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached approximately 6.373 billion yuan, with a net reduction of about 5.91 billion yuan after accounting for increases [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Reduction - The total reduction amount in January 2026 was approximately 6.373 billion yuan, involving 222 companies [4][12]. - The highest reduction amount was from Tianshan Aluminum, with a reduction of approximately 816 million yuan [5][12]. - The second highest reduction was from Gaode Infrared, totaling approximately 798 million yuan [5][12]. - Perfect World ranked third with a reduction of approximately 464 million yuan [5][12]. - The non-metallic mineral industry had the highest reduction amount, approximately 1.113 billion yuan, followed by the defense industry at about 889 million yuan [12][21]. Group 2: Stock Increase - The total amount of stock increase in January 2026 was approximately 462 million yuan, involving 34 companies [13][21]. - The highest increase was from Dazhong Mining, with an increase of approximately 392 million yuan [15][18]. - The second highest increase was from Kaipu Biological, totaling approximately 27 million yuan [15][18]. - The third highest increase was from Sentai Co., with an increase of approximately 15 million yuan [15][18]. - The steel industry had the highest increase amount, approximately 392 million yuan, followed by the pharmaceutical industry at about 27 million yuan [21].

【环球时报驻德国特约记者 青木】"如果没有雄心勃勃、行之有效且务实的产业政策，欧洲经济注定沦 为竞争对手的游戏场。" 欧盟委员会负责工业战略的执行副主席斯特凡纳·塞茹尔内2日在多家欧洲媒体 上发表文章称，欧洲需要用"欧洲制造"战略来保护其自身产业。据路透社报道，这篇文章得到超过1100 名企业首席执行官（CEO）和商界领袖的联合署名。 塞茹尔内在文章里写道："我们必须一劳永逸地在最具战略意义的领域建立真正的欧洲优先权。"这篇文 章发表于欧盟"工业加速器法案"提出之前，该法案预计将在本月提出，其可能制定优先考虑本地制造产 品的要求。该计划的目标是推进能源密集型产业的脱碳，并加强欧洲产业。然而，此举已导致欧盟国家 间产生分歧。 塞茹尔内表示，无论是公共采购、直接国家援助还是其他形式的财政支持，受惠企业必须将其生产的实 质性部分放在欧洲本土。他将此称作"一项经济独立之举，是对德拉吉报告的直接落实"。瑞士《新苏黎 世报》在其分析文章中提到，欧盟法律框架下公共采购市场规模达5500亿瑞士法郎（约合4.9万亿元人 民币）。 这篇文章得到1100余名欧洲行业领袖联合署名，其中包括钢铁制造商安赛乐米塔尔和塔塔钢铁，制药公 司 ...