Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the cost support is weakening, the supply side has复产 expectations, the consumption side is average, and the fundamentals remain weak [3]. - For polysilicon, the consumption side shows signs of weakening, the supply side has news of joint production cuts but it is difficult to achieve in the short term, and there is still some game in the market [8][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly oscillating at a low level. The main contract 2507 opened at 7,840 yuan/ton and closed at 7,880 yuan/ton, a change of (-15) yuan/ton or (-0.19)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 183,690 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 23, 2025, was 65,298 lots, a change of -355 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply Side - The spot price of industrial silicon has declined. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon is 8,500 - 8,800 (-50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon is 9,300 - 9,700 (-100) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon is 8,000 - 8,100 (-50) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon is 8,000 - 8,100 (-50) yuan/ton. Since May, the price of electrode raw materials has been declining, with a decrease of about 700 - 1,000 yuan/ton [2]. Consumption Side - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC is 11,300 - 11,600 (0) yuan/ton. The average price this week remained stable compared to last week. The domestic DMC market's trading center has moved up slightly, and the downstream enterprises'开工 rate has increased. The monomer enterprises' DMC shipments have improved compared to last week [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. - Inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [4]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 22, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures rebounded, opening at 35,600 yuan/ton and closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.14% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 77,294 (73,488 the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 126,262 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon weekly output was 21,500.00 tons, a change of 0.40% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 13.30GW, a change of 7.10% month - on - month [5][12][13]. Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term futures price is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation, mainly conduct range operations. - Inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [9][15].

万联证券股份有限公司投资顾问屈放在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，"抢装潮"过后，企业对市场 整体处于观望状态，导致多晶硅的下游需求有所减少。 硅业分会的报告显示，5月份以来，部分多晶硅企业再度进入停产或检修状态，一定程度上反映了企业 的避险行为，可视为本阶段价格已达到企业承受亏损的极限。另外，即将进入丰水期，预计本年度暂无 新增复产计划，均为产能置换，甚至是以小产能替代大产能。供应大幅缩减能够在一定程度上缓解当前 的供需错配局面，缓和产业和企业各方的压力。 据硅业分会统计，截至目前，多晶硅在产企业数量为11家，基本全部处于降负荷运行状态。对此，硅业 分会判断，多晶硅的价格有止跌企稳的趋势。 根据中国光伏行业协会公布的行业单耗及现有成本结构测算，多晶硅的现金成本约为36元/千克。若考 虑7元/千克的折旧费用，则生产成本上升至43元/千克。 中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会(以下简称"硅业分会")5月21日发布的最新一周多晶硅价格显示，本周 多晶硅价格持稳。N型复投料成交价格区间为3.60万元/吨至4.10万元/吨，成交均价为3.86万元/吨；N型 颗粒硅成交价格区间为3.50万元/吨至3.70万元/吨，成交均价为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent weakness in the 20 - year US Treasury auction and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's have led to a decline in the 10 - year US Treasury and the US dollar index. Geopolitical issues in the Middle East and concerns about stagflation from tariffs have provided upward momentum for precious metals [2][4]. - For copper, due to factors such as high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns, the copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation [7][10]. - In the case of alumina, the suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea may narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and the price of alumina is expected to be strong in the short term [14][19][20]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, with ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, along with factors like declining LME inventories and increasing imports, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate [23][26]. - For zinc, as some smelters resume production and downstream demand remains weak, the zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range [28][29]. - In the lead market, the current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement [31][34]. - For nickel, although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, suppressing the upside of the nickel price [36][39][40]. - Stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with short - term support from production cuts and costs, but lacking upward demand drivers [41][42]. - For industrial silicon, with increasing supply and high inventory, the price is under pressure, and short - term short positions are recommended [45][46]. - In the polysilicon market, with production and demand adjustments and ongoing contract delivery contradictions, short - term short positions are still recommended [48][51][52]. - For lithium carbonate, due to weak downstream demand expectations and high inventories, short positions are advisable [54][57]. - In the tin market, with the phased resumption of African tin mines and limited demand improvement, the tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term [59][61]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.76% to $3314.36 per ounce, and London silver rose 0.95% to $33.38 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.92% to 777.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.86% to 8285 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.56% to 99.60, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.587%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.19% to 7.203 [2]. Important资讯 - The US Commerce Secretary hopes to reach trade agreements with major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the market expects two interest rate cuts this year. There are geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the 20 - year US Treasury auction had weak demand [2]. Logic Analysis - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and weak 20 - year US Treasury auctions have led to a decline in the US Treasury and the US dollar index. Fed officials' concerns about tariffs and geopolitical issues in the Middle East have provided upward momentum for precious metals [4]. Trading Strategy - Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. Copper Market Review - The LME copper price fell 0.28% to $9487. LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168,800 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1401 short tons to 173,023 short tons [7]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a winning yield of 5.047%. Peru plans to set up a "mining fund" for small - scale miners. Vicuna expects two copper projects in Argentina to start production in 2030. China's imports of anode copper and electrolytic copper had different trends in April [7][8]. Logic Analysis - US trade negotiations, high - yield 20 - year US Treasury auctions, upcoming mid - year negotiations on copper concentrate processing fees, and seasonal consumption patterns affect the copper market. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the market may show a back structure in the medium term. Demand remains resilient during the 90 - day tariff suspension [10]. Trading Strategy - The copper price is expected to be in a high - level consolidation for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures price of alumina 2509 contract rose 1.85% to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in various regions increased [12]. Important资讯 - Bauxite mining in the Guinea AXIS矿区 has been suspended, with an annual capacity of about 40 million tons. The transition authorities in Guinea have designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserves. There was a spot alumina transaction in Guangxi on May 21 [14][15][16]. Logic Analysis - The suspension of bauxite mining in Guinea is likely to narrow the annual supply surplus of bauxite. The price of bauxite is expected to rise to $75 - 80. The impact on alumina is more medium - term, and short - term supply and demand may change if alumina production capacities resume [19]. Trading Strategy - The alumina price is expected to be strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract fell 30 yuan per ton to 20,185 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. Important资讯 - EU - US trade negotiations are ongoing. The US 20 - year Treasury auction had an impact on the market. Global primary aluminum production in April was 6.033 million tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot imports reached a record high in April [23][25]. Logic Analysis - With ongoing tariff negotiations and a stable macro - environment, the LME aluminum inventory is decreasing, and aluminum imports are increasing. The aluminum consumption shows an upward trend, and the inventory is at a low level, which may support the price spread [26]. Trading Strategy - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; consider long positions in the 06 - 09 contract spread for arbitrage; wait and see for options [26]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc price fell 1.47% to $2684.5 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan per ton. The spot market had weak downstream demand and a slight decline in the spot premium [28]. Important资讯 - The LME has approved three additional warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The tender price of a zinc mine in North China increased [28][29]. Logic Analysis - As some smelters resume production, supply may increase, while downstream demand remains weak. The zinc price is likely to fluctuate within a range, and may decline with inventory accumulation [29]. Trading Strategy - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within a range, and short positions can be lightly tried at high prices for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead price fell 0.28% to $1978.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2507 contract fell 0.33% to 16,835 yuan per ton. The spot market had regional transactions, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs [31]. Important资讯 - China's lead concentrate imports in April decreased 4.3% month - on - month but increased 22.1% year - on - year. Some secondary lead smelters plan to resume production [32][34]. Logic Analysis - The current loss of secondary lead smelters supports the lead price, but the off - season demand restricts its upward movement. Short - term macro factors should be monitored [34]. Trading Strategy - No specific trading strategy details provided in the text. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose $100 to $15,630 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201,786 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 400 yuan to 123,760 yuan per ton. Spot premiums had different changes [36]. Important资讯 - Nickel Industries' production and sales data in the first quarter of 2025 are reported. Hong Kong has more LME - approved warehouses. In March 2025, there was a supply surplus of 39,400 tons of refined nickel globally [36][39]. Logic Analysis - Although the firm nickel ore price provides some support, the supply surplus of refined nickel is expected to expand after May, and the improvement in the nickel ore shortage situation will suppress the upside of the nickel price [40]. Trading Strategy - The nickel price is expected to oscillate for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel 2507 fell 5 yuan to 12,870 yuan per ton. Spot prices for cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are reported [42]. Important资讯 - China's stainless steel exports decreased 5% in April, and imports increased 10% [42]. Logic Analysis - There may be a supply shortage of 304 stainless steel, but demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is difficult to digest. The price is expected to oscillate widely, following the nickel price and macro - sentiment [42]. Trading Strategy - The stainless steel price is expected to be slightly strong in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon main contract fell 1.75% to 7865 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and downstream demand was weak [45]. Important资讯 - The US has launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal [45]. Logic Analysis - With increasing supply and high inventory, the price of industrial silicon is under pressure. Although there is some speculative buying demand below 8000 yuan, the actual supply - demand situation has not improved [46]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading; sell out - of - the - money call options; conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 contracts [46]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon main contract rose 0.93% to 35,860 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [48]. Important资讯 - China's electricity consumption data in April are reported [49]. Logic Analysis - Production and demand of polysilicon and silicon wafers are adjusted in May, and there is an inventory reduction. The spot price is weak, and there is a contradiction between the downward fundamentals and contract delivery. Short - term fluctuations are intense [51]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the PS2507 contract for single - side trading; sell PS2507 - C - 40000 options; wait and see for arbitrage [52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract 2507 rose 240 yuan to 61,100 yuan per ton. SMM - reported spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [54]. Important资讯 - A lithium - salt project in Yiliping has improved lithium recovery, and a lithium - salt enterprise in Jiangxi plans to conduct maintenance [55][57]. Logic Analysis - Downstream demand expectations are weak, and inventories are high. Short positions are advisable until there is a clear signal of overseas mine production cuts [57]. Trading Strategy - Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; hold put ratio options [57]. Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.36% to 266,150 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees were stable. The market had limited actual transactions [59]. Important资讯 - The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds on May 21, with a high winning yield [59]. Logic Analysis - The high winning yield of the 20 - year US Treasury bonds has increased risk - aversion sentiment. African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tightness is expected to ease. The tin price is mainly driven by macro factors [61]. Trading Strategy - The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term for single - side trading; wait and see for options [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at high levels. The market may show a long - term back structure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the progress of bauxite suspension in Guinea, bauxite price expectations, and domestic alumina capacity changes. For now, arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [14][15][16]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [21][24]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [27][28]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on lead prices. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [34][35]. - Nickel prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [38][40][43]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [47][48][49]. - Tin prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [53][54][55]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline. Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [59][60]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to be bearish. Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [63][65]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [68][69][70]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 77,920 yuan, down 0.22%. The Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 6,043 lots to 525,000 lots. Spot premiums in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Alumina**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 32 yuan/ton to 3,216 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. Positions increased by 19,583 lots to 511,400 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 20,270 yuan/ton. Positions increased by 3,682 lots to 520,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 1,119 lots to 227,500 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai showed a slight improvement in trading [26]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract fell 1.21% to 16,685 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Lead index increased its position by 7,829 lots to 73,000 lots. Spot prices decreased [30]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 rose 40 to 123,400 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 687 lots. Spot premiums remained unchanged [37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [45]. - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 264,780 yuan/ton, down 2,320 yuan/ton or 0.87%. Positions decreased by 4,639 lots to 54,185 lots. Spot prices decreased [52]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly and strengthened slightly, closing at 7,880 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Spot prices generally decreased [56]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. Spot prices remained stable [61]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [66]. 3.2 Important Information - **Copper**: Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter has resumed operation ahead of schedule and is expected to reach full - capacity production in December. As of May 22, copper inventories in mainstream regions in China increased slightly week - on - week, and it is expected that supply and demand will be weak next week [3]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea Axis mining area has been shut down, and the recovery time is unknown. The Guinea transitional authorities have designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas. Alumina production increased week - on - week, and inventories decreased [10][12]. - **Aluminum**: EU - US trade negotiations are still uncertain. Global primary aluminum production in April 2025 was 6.033 million tons. China's primary aluminum production in April was estimated to be 3.621 million tons. Aluminum inventories decreased, and imports reached a record high [19][20]. - **Zinc**: As of May 22, zinc inventories in seven major regions in China decreased week - on - week [27]. - **Lead**: Due to continuous losses in the secondary lead smelting enterprises, waste battery purchase prices in many regions have been significantly reduced. As of May 22, lead inventories in five major regions decreased [31][33]. - **Nickel**: In March 2025, the global refined nickel production was 317,300 tons, with a supply surplus of 39,400 tons. From January to March, the supply surplus was 123,000 tons [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's stainless steel exports decreased by 5% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10% month - on - month. As of May 22, stainless steel inventories increased slightly [46]. - **Tin**: In April, the production of integrated circuits, electronic computers, and washing machines showed different trends. African tin mines are gradually resuming production [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The US has launched anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal from multiple countries [57][58]. - **Polysilicon**: In April, China's total social electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kWh, up 4.7% year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Copper**: The US is negotiating tariffs, and the negotiation of copper concentrate processing fees is approaching. The spread between Comex and LME is driving the flow of electrolytic copper. Although there is short - term pressure on spreads after delivery, the inventory is still far below the safety level, and demand remains resilient [4]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea policy may reduce the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and bauxite prices are expected to rise. Alumina production increased, but inventories decreased. Attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment is stable. LME aluminum inventories are decreasing, aluminum imports are increasing, and consumption is growing. Aluminum inventories are at a low level, which may support the price difference [21]. - **Zinc**: The market is in a state of supply and demand balance, and inventories are decreasing [27]. - **Lead**: Secondary lead smelters are still in a loss state, which supports lead prices, but the off - season demand restricts the upward space of prices [34]. - **Nickel**: In the first quarter, there was a surplus of refined nickel. Although nickel ore prices support nickel prices, the supply is expected to increase after May, and demand will enter the off - season [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [47]. - **Tin**: African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tension is expected to ease. The demand side has not improved significantly, and prices are mainly driven by the macro - environment [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. Inventories are high, which suppresses prices [59]. - **Polysilicon**: In May, polysilicon production and silicon wafer production decreased, and inventories are expected to decrease. The spot price is weak, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [63][65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [68]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Copper**: Wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [24]. - **Zinc**: Fluctuate within a range. Try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [28]. - **Lead**: Fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [35]. - **Nickel**: Weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [41][42][43]. - **Stainless Steel**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48][49]. - **Tin**: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [54][55]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [60]. - **Polysilicon**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [69][70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price is continuously hitting new lows, with an expected increase in supply, no bright spots on the consumption side, and significant inventory and warehouse receipt pressure. The price is approaching historical lows, and most enterprises face high cost pressure. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream production after continuous price declines and the impact of relevant industry policies [2][3]. - For polysilicon, the spot price is weak, recent trading volume is low, and the futures market shows wide - range fluctuations. The acceleration of warehouse receipt registration requires attention to its impact on the market [5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to reach new lows. The main contract 2507 opened at 7,980 yuan/ton and closed at 7,865 yuan/ton, a change of - 140 yuan/ton (-1.75%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 192,802 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 21 was 65,653 lots, a decrease of 596 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (-100) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,800 (-100) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,200 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,000 - 8,200 (0) yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region continued to decline, while the silicon price in Xinjiang remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [2]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 11,300 - 11,600 (0) yuan/ton. In the organic silicon market, the prices of raw rubber and D4 showed mixed trends. With the arrival of the recent trading window period, the downstream demand for raw rubber increased rapidly, and the trading was good. However, due to the weak demand for room - temperature rubber, the overall trading of D4 was average [2]. - **Strategy** - Given the current situation, attention should be paid to the changes in upstream production after continuous price declines and the impact of relevant industry policies [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 21, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 35,630 yuan/ton and closing at 35,860 yuan/ton, a 0.93% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 73,488 (70,536 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 157,225 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The re - feeding material was quoted at 32.00 - 35.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg; dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.00 (a month - on - month change of - 2.27%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW (a month - on - month increase of 7.22%), the weekly polysilicon output was 21,400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW (a month - on - month increase of 0.50%) [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. For example, the domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the efficient PERC182 battery cell was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W [5][7]. - The registration of warehouse receipts has accelerated recently, with 310 new lots added on that day, and the total warehouse receipts reached 450 lots [7]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, use range - bound operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging when the price is high. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6][7].

2025年05月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：夜盘大幅反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 3 | | 铜：避险情绪升温，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然承压 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势格局依旧 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单累库，关注市场情绪变动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 26 | | 原木：弱势 ...

多晶硅日报 一、行情回顾与展望 市场表现：多晶硅 06 合约价格下跌动能有所衰减。PS2507 收盘价 35860 元/吨, 涨幅 0.93%，成交量 157225 万手，持仓量 73488 手，净增 2952 手。 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 05 月 22 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F30 ...

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating was provided in the content [1][21][35] Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides trading strategies based on market data, industry news, and logical analysis [4][23][37] Section Summaries Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 78,100 yuan with a 0.31% increase, and the Shanghai Copper index increased its position by 3,097 lots to 531,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: Ivanhoe Mining suspended the operation of its Kakula underground mine due to earthquake activity [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The mid - year negotiation between Antofagasta and smelters is approaching, and the copper concentrate processing fee is under pressure. The import of recycled copper may increase, but the long - term supply is still tight. The market may show a back structure in the medium term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to temporarily observe for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [5][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose by 98 yuan/ton to 3,246 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.11%. Spot prices in various regions also increased [9] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Axis mining area had its mining license revoked, and the transition authorities designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas [10][11] - **Logic Analysis**: The Guinea event may reduce the annual surplus of bauxite supply and support the bauxite price. Short - term attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the alumina price will be strongly volatile in the short term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 20,125 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions also changed [18] - **Related Information**: There were news about Sino - US trade, real - estate data, bank interest rates, and Fed officials' statements. Aluminum inventory decreased [19][20] - **Trading Logic**: Fed officials hinted at no interest rate cut before September, and domestic banks lowered deposit rates. Aluminum consumption maintained an upward trend, and low inventory supported the price difference [23] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate. Consider the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 06 - 09 contract and temporarily observe for options [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 rose by 0.83% to 22,410 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders, and the spot premium declined slightly [26] - **Related Information**: The Hong Kong Exchange plans to add three storage facilities in Hong Kong, and the zinc ore tender price in North China increased [27] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters resumed production, downstream orders did not improve, and short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, short positions can be lightly tested at high prices. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2506 rose by 0.45% to 16,900 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand, and regional trading was acceptable [30] - **Related Information**: Some recycled lead smelters reduced the purchase price of waste batteries and planned to stop production [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss state, and the short - term resumption of production willingness is not strong. The demand off - season restricts the upward space of lead prices [32] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 60 to 123,280 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [34] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, nickel ore imports increased seasonally, and the export of ternary precursors decreased [36] - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventory increased, nickel ore prices supported the nickel price, but the supply surplus is expected to expand after May [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to weaken. Consider the double - selling strategy for options and temporarily observe for arbitrage [38] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose by 30 to 12,870 yuan/ton. Spot prices were given [39] - **Important Information**: The European stainless steel market is facing challenges, and prices are falling [40] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, steel mills' production decreased, demand was mainly for rigid demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage [43][44] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 267,730 yuan/ton, with a 1.11% increase. Spot trading was limited [46] - **Related Information**: There was news about the US missile defense system, but it had little impact on the tin market [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices are in a high - level shock. African tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand situation is expected to ease [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to adjust in the short term. Temporarily observe for options [49][50] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures weakened, and spot prices were generally lowered [52] - **Related Information**: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported industrial silicon from multiple countries [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weak, supply will increase, and high inventory suppresses prices [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [54] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures strengthened, and spot prices were given [55] - **Related Information**: The US electricity consumption is expected to reach a record high, and solar power installation capacity is expected to remain stable [56] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, production decreased, inventory decreased, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [57][58] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [59] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and spot prices decreased [60] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, lithium carbonate imports increased significantly [61] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters and mines are reducing production, but demand is not optimistic, and inventory is high [62] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [63][65][66] Second Part: Non - ferrous Industry Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals, including price, spread, inventory, and profit data, as well as multiple charts showing the historical trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [68][79][184]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On May 20, polysilicon showed a weak oscillating trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 35,625 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.99%, and an increase in positions by 7,474 lots to 70,536 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material dropped to 37,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract widened to 975 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon fell below the 8,000-yuan mark, with the main contract 2506 closing at 7,910 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.53%, and a decrease in positions by 10,324 lots to 64,706 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 9,412 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,100 yuan/ton, with the spot premium widening to 95 yuan/ton. Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, due to the lack of a reversal driver in demand and the suppression of warehouse receipt pressure, a defensive short strategy is recommended. Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research View - On May 20, polysilicon and industrial silicon prices both declined. The main polysilicon contract 2506 closed at 35,625 yuan/ton, down 0.99% for the day, while the main industrial silicon contract 2506 closed at 7,910 yuan/ton, down 2.53% for the day [2]. - Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, demand lacks a reversal driver, and warehouse receipt pressure is suppressing prices. A defensive short strategy is recommended [2]. - Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 140 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon also declined, with the largest decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 1,525 yuan/ton and 625 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of N-type polysilicon material and dense material/single crystal use decreased by 500 yuan/ton and 1,000 yuan/ton respectively. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 125 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 66,097 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 4,770 tons to 331,920 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 90 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 210,000 tons to 270,000 tons [4]. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, price differentials between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: The report includes charts showing the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, and the weekly industry inventory, as well as the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [22][23][26]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report includes charts showing the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [29][31][37]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have extensive experience in commodity research and provide services to many leading spot enterprises [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For industrial silicon: Unilateral - Sell on rallies; Inter - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Options - None [3][4] - For polysilicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Futures - spot - None; Options - None [8] 2. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, with potential supply increases from the resumption of production in the northwest and southwest, lackluster consumption, and declining exports [3] - The fundamentals of polysilicon are also weak. With the increase in the number of warehouse receipts, the delivery game is weakening, and the market is expected to run weakly [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract 2505 opened at 8080 yuan/ton and closed at 7910 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton (-2.53%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 64706 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66249 lots, an increase of 152 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8700 - 8900 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9400 - 10000 (-150) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in some regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest continued to decline [1] - In April 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 60,500 tons, a 2% increase month - on - month and a 9% decrease year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 216,700 tons, a 7% decrease year - on - year. In April 2025, the import volume of metallic silicon in China was 500 tons, a 70% decrease month - on - month and an 83% decrease year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5200 tons, a 43% decrease year - on - year [1] Consumption End - The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. In the organic silicon market, the prices of raw rubber and D4 showed different trends. The demand for raw rubber downstream increased rapidly, and the transaction was good, while the overall transaction of D4 was average due to weak demand for room - temperature rubber, and the high - end price declined slightly [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fell, opening at 36020 yuan/ton and closing at 35625 yuan/ton, a 0.99% decrease from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 70536 (63062 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 165519 lots [5] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 33.00 - 35.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 32.00 - 34.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, and N - type silicon was 36.00 - 39.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg [5] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25000 tons, a 2.27% decrease month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a 7.22% increase month - on - month. The weekly output of polysilicon was 21400 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 12.42GW, a 0.50% increase month - on - month [6] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.08 (0.00) yuan/piece [6] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [7]