新华社符拉迪沃斯托克2月5日电 据俄罗斯卫星通讯社5日报道，俄驻古巴大使维克托·科罗内利在接受卫 星通讯社采访时表示，俄罗斯将继续向古巴供应石油。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Geopolitical risks continue to drive up oil prices, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $1.93, or 3.05%, to settle at $65.14 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $2.13, or 3.16%, to settle at $69.46 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures rose $15.20, or 3.32%, to settle at $473.50 per barrel [1] European Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - The refining value difference and crude oil price difference slightly deteriorated for WTI MEH (cracking) and Arab Extra Light, with an arbitrage incentive of -$3.89 (closed) and a spread change of -0.34 [2] - The arbitrage window for WTI MEH (cracking) and Arab Light remained closed and stable, with an arbitrage incentive of -$5.00 (closed) and a spread change of -0.38 [2] - The economic efficiency of West African crude oil for WTI MEH (cracking) and Nemba did not significantly improve, with an arbitrage incentive of -$5.19 (closed) and a spread change of -0.19 [2] - The situation for Mars (coking) and Arab Heavy slightly improved, possibly due to the narrowing of the heavy crude oil discount, with an arbitrage incentive of -$3.38 (closed) and a spread change of 0.75 [2] - The arbitrage window for Mars (coking) and Vasconia marginally improved and remained open, with an arbitrage incentive of $0.07 (open) and a spread change of 0.19 [2] - The price disadvantage for Mars (coking) and Castilla narrowed, but the arbitrage remained closed, with an arbitrage incentive of -$2.42 (closed) and a spread change of 0.41 [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The price disadvantage of North Sea crude oil for Bonny Light (cracking) and Forties widened, and the arbitrage window deepened and closed, with an arbitrage incentive of -$3.31 (closed) and a spread change of -0.38 [4] - The price advantage of Algerian crude oil for Bonny Light (cracking) and Saharan Blend significantly expanded, and the arbitrage space increased greatly, with an arbitrage incentive of $5.26 (open) and a spread change of 2.19 [4] - The price discount of Russian oil for Bonny Light (cracking) and Urals remained huge, and the arbitrage window remained at an extremely high level, with an arbitrage incentive of $24.43 (open) and a spread change of -1.21 [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The trans - Atlantic freight decreased or the spread widened for Forties (cracking) and WTI MEH, and the economic efficiency increased, with an arbitrage incentive of $2.07 (open) and a spread change of 0.87 [4] - Similar to the trend of WTI MEH, the arbitrage conditions for Forties (cracking) and Eagle Ford improved, with an arbitrage incentive of $2.32 (open) and a spread change of 0.78 [4] - The West African crude oil arbitrage window for Forties (cracking) and Bonny Light was stable with little change, with an arbitrage incentive of $3.63 (open) and a spread change of -0.01 [4] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Russian oil's dominant position for Urals (cracking) and Saharan Blend was stable, and the arbitrage window of other oil types remained closed, with an arbitrage incentive of -$22.31 (closed) and a spread change of 0.1 [5] - The spread slightly deteriorated for Urals (cracking) and Azeri Light, but the Russian oil - dominated pattern remained unchanged, with an arbitrage incentive of -$20.46 (closed) and a spread change of -0.28 [5] - The arbitrage conditions of West African oil for Urals (cracking) and Bonny Light marginally improved but were still uncompetitive, with an arbitrage incentive of -$22.54 (closed) and a spread change of 0.22 [5] Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - The competitive disadvantage of Murban relative to ESPO (cracking) further expanded, with an arbitrage incentive of -$15.13 (closed) and a spread change of -1.38 [6] - The arbitrage window for ESPO (cracking) and Bonny Light deepened and closed, lacking economic efficiency, with an arbitrage incentive of -$15.33 (closed) and a spread change of -0.79 [6] - North Sea crude oil for ESPO (cracking) and Forties maintained a deep disadvantage with little change, with an arbitrage incentive of -$22.20 (closed) and a spread change of -0.26 [6] Key Market News - An Iranian senior source said that the US leaking the news of canceling negotiations showed a lack of sincerity, and Iran would not accept negotiations on any issues other than the nuclear issue [6] - The Iranian foreign minister said that the Iran - US nuclear negotiations were scheduled to be held in Muscat, Oman, at around 10 am local time on Friday (2 pm Beijing time on the 6th). Affected by the repeated news, oil prices gave back half of the previous gains [6] - An Iranian official source said that the Iran - US negotiations originally scheduled for the 6th in Oman had been canceled due to new conditions imposed by the US and differences between the two sides on negotiation issues [6] - OPEC's crude oil production decreased last month. In January, OPEC's average daily oil production was 28.83 million barrels, a decrease of 230,000 barrels per day compared with the previous month. About one - third of the decline was caused by Venezuela [6] - The Trump administration said that the US had agreed to cooperate with Japan, Mexico, and the EU to jointly develop key mineral resources for industries such as defense [7] Trend Strength - The crude oil trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Oil Market - Oil prices saw a significant increase, with WTI March contract closing at $65.14 per barrel, up $1.93 (3.05%) [2][14] - Brent April contract closed at $69.46 per barrel, up $2.13 (3.16%) [2][14] - EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventory by 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million barrels, the lowest level since November 2024 [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 rose by 3.98% to 2797 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 increased by 3.39% to 3268 yuan/ton [3][17] - China's refining capacity utilization rate for reduced pressure was 68.05%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2603 increased by 1.69% to 3361 yuan/ton [5][18] - Social inventory rate for asphalt rose to 25.43%, up 0.64% week-on-week [5][18] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 rose by 205 yuan/ton to 16385 yuan/ton [6][19] - Natural rubber social inventory in China increased by 0.9 million tons to 128.1 million tons, a 0.7% increase [6][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5218 yuan/ton, up 1.32%, while EG2605 closed at 3788 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [7][20] - PX futures closed at 7296 yuan/ton, up 1.25% [7][20] Methanol - Domestic methanol prices showed a mixed trend, with Taicang spot price at 2238 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia at 1797.5 yuan/ton [8][21] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly in February, while demand may decline due to MTO unit repairs [8][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China polypropylene (PP) ranged from 6550 to 6750 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9][22] - The market is expected to see an increase in inventory as the holiday approaches [9][22] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed a strong adjustment, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4820 to 4900 yuan/ton [10][23] - The market is facing weak demand from the real estate sector, which may limit support for PVC downstream products [10][23] Urea - Urea futures closed at 1787 yuan/ton, up 0.56% day-on-day, with stable prices in the spot market [11][24] - Daily production of urea was reported at 21.03 million tons, with a slight increase expected due to the resumption of gas-based production [11][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures closed at 1229 yuan/ton, up 2.08%, with stable prices in the spot market [12][26] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.37%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points [12][26] Glass - Glass futures closed at 1109 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with stable prices in the spot market [13][27] - Concerns about supply fluctuations are present as multiple production lines are planned for resumption [13][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and mid - term layout should be the main operation idea [1]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [1]. - For urea, the current situation of internal and external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high levels [1]. - For rubber, the overall commodity has rebounded, with expected large - amplitude fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. Buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 can resume position - building [7]. - For PVC, the overall domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support it, the fundamental situation is poor. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [10]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply is wide, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profit - taking can be gradually carried out [14]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward valuation space still exists. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate is declining [17]. - For polypropylene, the cost side predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply pressure in H1 2026 is relieved. The demand side has seasonal fluctuations. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [19]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulating pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [21]. - For PTA, the supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is affected by the off - season. It has entered the inventory - accumulating stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, and there is a risk of correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long at low levels [23]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, the import is expected to remain high in February, and the port inventory - accumulating cycle will continue. The valuation is currently neutral to low, and there is a risk of rebound due to factors such as the tense situation in Iran and coal price rebound [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures closed up 12.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.80% increase, at 462.40 yuan/barrel. The related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 107.00 yuan/ton, a 3.98% increase, at 2797.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 107.00 yuan/ton, a 3.39% increase, at 3268.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still an Iranian supply gap, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and mid - term layout should be the main operation idea [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, regional spot prices changed as follows: Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan/ton, Lunan increased by 5 yuan/ton, Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei increased by 55 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 23.00 yuan/ton, at 2279 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 6 yuan [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [1]. Urea - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, regional spot prices: Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Northeast remained unchanged; Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 17 yuan/ton, at 1787 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of internal and external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high levels [1]. Rubber - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, multiple commodities rebounded after a sharp decline. The short - term market is priced by funds and has a low correlation with fundamentals. Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls are optimistic due to macro - expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 29, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises for all - steel tires was 62.41%, 0.29 percentage points lower than the previous week and 54.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.35%, 0.08 percentage points higher than the previous week and 53.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 25, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.2 million tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 84.7 million tons, a 0.4% decrease; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 42.5 million tons, a 0.3% increase. As of January 30, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, an 1.88% increase. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15150 (+200) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1930 (+15) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1920 (10) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10400 (+50) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12400 (0) yuan [4][5][6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity has rebounded, with expected large - amplitude fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. Buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 can resume position - building [7]. PVC - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the PVC05 contract increased by 84 yuan, at 5155 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4900 (+100) yuan/ton, the basis was - 255 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 99 (+13) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 700 (0) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 590 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.9%, a 0.2% increase from the previous week; the calcium carbide method was 80.6%, a 0.6% increase; the ethylene method was 75%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.1% decrease. The factory inventory was 29 million tons (- 1.8), and the social inventory was 120.6 million tons (+2.9) [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support it, the fundamental situation is poor. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6190 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6210 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7777 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton; the basis was 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 185.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.63 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB device profit was - 46.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.1 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.28%, a 0.35% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, an increase of 0.80 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.56%, a 1.84% decrease; the PS operating rate was 55.60%, a 1.70% decrease; the EPS operating rate was 53.26%, a 5.45% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 66.10%, a 0.70% decrease [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply is wide, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profit - taking can be gradually carried out [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6918 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 35.03 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons; the trader inventory was 2.92 million tons, unchanged. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward valuation space still exists. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate is declining [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6801 yuan/ton, an increase of 71 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6780 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 21 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 43.1 million tons, a decrease of 3.67 million tons; the trader inventory was 19.39 million tons, a decrease of 1.08 million tons; the port inventory was 7.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply pressure in H1 2026 is relieved. The demand side has seasonal fluctuations. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [19]. PX - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the PX03 contract increased by 100 yuan, at 7180 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 5 US dollars, at 902 US dollars. The basis was - 67 yuan (- 58), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 116 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 89.2%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 81.6%, a 0.6% increase. The Zhonghua Quanzhou plant was restarting. The PTA load was 76.6%, unchanged. The Sichuan Energy Investment plant was restarting. In January, South Korea exported 40.8 million tons of PX to China, a decrease of 2.5 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of December was 465 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 313 US dollars (+3), the South Korean PX - MX was 150 US dollars (- 1), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (- 8) [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulating pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [21]. PTA - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the PTA05 contract increased by 68 yuan, at 5218 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 60 yuan, at 5140 yuan. The basis was - 62 yuan (+6), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (+8). The PTA load was 76.6%, unchanged. The Sichuan Energy Investment plant was restarting. The downstream load was 84.2%, a 2.2% decrease. Multiple plants were under maintenance or restarting. The terminal texturing load decreased by 14% to 52%, and the loom load decreased by 16% to 33%. On January 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.6 million tons, an increase of 3.3 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 39 yuan, to 398 yuan, and the on - screen processing fee increased by 9 yuan, to 432 yuan [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is affected by the off - season. It has entered the inventory - accumulating stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, and there is a risk of correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long at low levels [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: On February 5, 2026, the EG05 contract increased by 21 yuan, at 3788 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 5 yuan, at 3675 yuan. The basis was - 105 yuan (-

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Precious Metals High Volatility Continues, Stock Index Trends Diverge - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20260205" [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to have limited impact on the market. The market views him as a hawkish figure, but it's difficult for him to implement the policy of shrinking the balance sheet. There are resistances for significant hawkish or dovish turns. Attention should be paid to the Iran-US situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The positive policy expectation remains the macro main - line. There is a growing expectation that policies in the first quarter will boost the economy to achieve a "good start" in the 15th Five - Year Plan. The policy environment is favorable. In January, both fiscal and monetary policies were proactive, and the economy showed overall stability with strong exports [9]. - Asset views: Emphasize the structural opportunities of portfolio allocation. Recommend over - allocating IC and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectation, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectation support the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities. Precious metals have high short - term volatility and are recommended to be observed. Non - ferrous metals are relatively advantageous, and black commodities are volatile. Crude oil has high uncertainties [9]. 4. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Market Data 4.1.1 Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - Index futures: The prices and various period - on - period changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are presented. For example, the CSI 300 futures price was 4693.6, with a daily increase of 0.2%, a weekly decrease of 0.37%, etc. [2]. - Treasury bonds: Information on 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures is given, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.398, with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2]. 4.1.2 Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates - Foreign exchange: The dollar index was 97.3872, with a daily decrease of 0.23%, and the dollar intermediate price was 6.9385, with a decrease of 68 pips [2]. - Interest rates: Data on various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, 10Y US treasury bond yield, etc., and their changes are provided [2]. 4.1.3 Industry Index - The prices and various period - on - period changes of different industries are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, etc. For example, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index was 5718.7165, with a daily increase of 1.39% [3]. 4.1.4 Domestic and Overseas Commodities - Domestic commodities: Information on various domestic commodities such as shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products is presented, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the gold price was 1143.37, with a daily increase of 4.39% [4]. - Overseas commodities: Data on overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are provided, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.9, with a daily increase of 2.83% [6]. 4.2 Viewpoints on Different Asset Classes 4.2.1 Financial Assets - Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with the trend stabilizing and style complementing gains [10]. - Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with implied volatility continuing to decline and selling options to increase income [10]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile, as they fell across the board, and factors such as the implementation of monetary policies need to be concerned [10]. 4.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be volatile, as geopolitical conflicts have eased and the "Warsh trade" suppresses liquidity expectations [10]. 4.2.3 Shipping - The container shipping to Europe line is expected to be volatile, as spot freight rates are under pressure and shipping companies are reducing prices to attract cargo before the festival [10]. 4.2.4 Black Commodities - Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and supply and demand [10]. 4.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others like zinc, lead, etc. are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply and demand, and policies [10]. 4.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand, and geopolitical situations. Styrene is expected to rise in a volatile manner [12]. 4.2.7 Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors. For example, cotton is expected to rise in a volatile manner, while sugar is expected to decline in a volatile manner [12].

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.93美元，收于每桶65.14美元，涨幅 为3.05%；4月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.13美元，收于每桶69.46美元，涨幅为3.16%。 国际油价4日显著上涨。 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market closed mixed on February 4, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 260.31 points (0.53%) to 49,501.30, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 350.61 points (1.51%) to 22,904.58, and the S&P 500 dropped by 35.09 points (0.51%) to 6,882.72 [1] Employment Data - The ADP report indicated that private sector employment in January increased by only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the Dow Jones estimate of 45,000 [4][6] - The report highlighted a "low hiring, low firing" environment, suggesting that the labor market remains nearly stagnant, which may raise concerns for Federal Reserve policymakers regarding the need for more economic support [5][6] Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector faced significant selling pressure, with major companies like AMD experiencing a sharp decline of 17.31%, marking its largest single-day drop since 2017 [10][11] - Other tech stocks such as Nvidia, Oracle, and Broadcom also saw declines, contributing to the overall poor performance of the tech sector, which was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, falling over 2% [8][11] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced a 3% drop, briefly falling below the $73,000 level, which further intensified market risk aversion [3] Upcoming Financial Reports - A busy earnings week is underway, with Alphabet set to report on Wednesday and Amazon expected to release its earnings on Thursday, as over 100 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to announce their financial results this week [9]

综合央视新闻等媒体报道，在北京时间周四凌晨的数小时里，原定于本周五进行的美伊谈判在谈崩边缘走了一遭后， 暂时回归正轨。 受此影响，国际油价日内大幅波动。布伦特原油在周四凌晨1点30分猛然拉涨超3%后，又在4点左右显著回落。不过 由于各方对美伊能谈出成果的期待进一步降低，目前布油仍维持着超1%的涨幅。 （布伦特原油分钟线图，来源：TradingView） 市场传闻起伏的背后，正是美伊两国在外交战线上的激烈博弈。 作为本周初的市场认知，在美国威胁对伊朗动武的背景下，两国同意于本周五在伊斯坦布尔举行会谈，周边相关国家 也将作为观察员列席。美国和伊朗将针对核协议进行双边会谈，然后对伊朗的弹道导弹、军事代理人等问题进行多边 会谈。 随后伊朗方面周二提出，希望将会谈地点改到阿曼，而且只跟美国进行双边会谈，以确保谈判仅聚焦于核问题。 据知情美国官员透露，美国方面一开始对这个提议持开放态度，但在周三告知伊朗"要么按照既有的安排来谈，要么 就不谈了"。随后伊朗回应称"那就不谈了吧"。 伊朗方面则通过官方媒体放风称，谈判取消的原因是美方施加了新的条件，以及双方在谈判问题上存在分歧，而非会 谈地点的问题。 随后就是全球金融市场目睹 ...

在美国难以消化委内瑞拉石油的情况下，本周有消息称印度或将加入委内瑞拉原油的销售网络。但印度 官方目前对此尚未回应。 据报道，影响美国炼油厂需求的另一大原因是油价。目前交付至美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区的委内瑞拉石油 价格每桶比基准布伦特价格要低9.5美元左右，这个价格较1月中旬已有两三美元的优惠，但相对于同样 运抵墨西哥湾沿岸地区的加拿大石油而言，却贵出差不多1美元。 目前，美国石油巨头雪佛龙除在委内瑞拉从事开采工作外，同时也掌握委内瑞拉石油外销权。此外，美 国政府还给大宗商品贸易公司维多集团以及托克集团颁发了经销委内瑞拉石油的许可证。但路透社梳理 发现，无论是雪佛龙还是维多集团和托克集团，要给大量委内瑞拉石油找到买家都很吃力。数据显示， 雪佛龙去年12月从委内瑞拉出口的石油量为每天9.9万桶，该数字到今年1月骤然升至每天22万桶。雪佛 龙首席执行官沃斯上周披露，目前该企业旗下的炼油厂每天能处理15万桶委内瑞拉石油，这意味着该企 业从委出口的石油还有大量剩余，卖不掉的就变成库存。近期船舶监测数据显示，多艘由雪佛龙租用、 装有委内瑞拉石油的油轮或在美国港口等数日才卸货，或在航行途中减速。 贸易公司维多集团和托克集团的销 ...