Market Overview - The rubber sector experienced a decline of 0.34% on September 10, with Sanwei Equipment leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12557.68, up 0.38% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the rubber sector included: - Kexin New Source (300731) with a closing price of 45.01, up 4.38% and a trading volume of 136,100 shares, totaling 613 million yuan [1] - Tiantian Technology (300587) closed at 8.96, up 2.28% with a trading volume of 422,500 shares, totaling 376 million yuan [1] - Significant decliners included: - Sanwei Equipment (831834) which closed at 15.79, down 7.93% with a trading volume of 70,100 shares, totaling 113 million yuan [2] - Quancheng Shares (605183) closed at 20.55, down 3.20% with a trading volume of 29,600 shares, totaling 61.52 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The rubber sector saw a net inflow of 13.648 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 56.306 million yuan [2] - However, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 69.9536 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Kexin New Source (300731) had a net inflow of 49.3875 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 23.2366 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Sanwei Shares (603033) recorded a net inflow of 10.5857 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 9.2531 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Other notable stocks included: - Lian Ke Technology (001207) with a net inflow of 9.0254 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shuangjian Shares (002381) faced a net outflow of 1.8029 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral [7] - BR is rated neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with less rainfall in major production areas, raw material prices may rise, and cost - side support may weaken. Demand has an improvement expectation, and port inventory is expected to rise after downstream stocking ends [7] - For BR, supply is expected to decline, demand has an improvement expectation, and prices may have upward - repair momentum, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7] Market News and Data Futures - RU主力合约 closed at 15,940 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR主力合约 at 12,735 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton; BR主力合约 at 11,690 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan/ton [1] Spot - Yunnan - produced whole latex in Shanghai market was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,865 dollars/ton, down 25 dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,785 dollars/ton, down 40 dollars/ton; PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price was 11,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import Volume - In August 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 664,000 tons, up 7.8% from the same period in 2024 [2] Tire Industry - Tire enterprises' production capacity utilization has returned to normal, and some enterprises' orders and production volume have increased. The "Golden September and Silver October" has a positive impact on market sentiment, and market stocking is expected to increase [2] Export Volume of Cote d'Ivoire - In the first 8 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, up 14.4% from the same period in 2024. In August, exports were up 14.8% year - on - year and down 8.9% month - on - month [2] Global Natural Rubber Production and Consumption - In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, up 7.9% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons, down 0.3% from the previous month. In the first 7 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption decreased by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] Heavy - Truck Market - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 vehicles, down 1% month - on - month and up about 35% from the same period in 2024. From January to August, cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, up about 13% year - on - year [3] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, up 7% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spread - On September 9, 2025, RU basis was - 890 yuan/ton (- 30), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 940 yuan/ton (- 70), imported profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,594 yuan/ton (- 308.29), NR basis was 508 yuan/ton (+ 129); whole latex was 15,050 yuan/ton (- 350), mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (- 250), 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (- 100), STR20 was quoted at 1,865 dollars/ton (- 25), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (- 250), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,700 yuan/ton (- 50) [4][5] Raw Materials - Thai smoked sheet was 61.10 baht/kg (- 1.00), Thai latex was 56.00 baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 52.95 baht/kg (+ 0.25), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.05 baht/kg (- 0.25) [5] 开工率 - All - steel tire开工率 was 60.74% (- 4.15%), and semi - steel tire开工率 was 66.92% (- 4.05%) [6] 库存 - Natural rubber social inventory was 1,264,898 tons (- 5,911), Qingdao Port natural rubber inventory was 592,275 tons (- 10,020), RU futures inventory was 162,230 tons (- 16,410), and NR futures inventory was 46,569 tons (+ 907) [6] 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spread - On September 9, 2025, BR basis was 110 yuan/ton (+ 240), Sinopec's ex - factory price of butadiene was 9,350 yuan/ton (- 150), Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was quoted at 11,900 yuan/ton (- 200), Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 11,800 yuan/ton (- 150), Shandong private - owned BR was 11,650 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,471 yuan/ton (- 275) [6] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis BR was 76.16% (+ 0.31%) [6] 库存 - BR traders' inventory was 7,260 tons (+ 640), and BR enterprises' inventory was 24,650 tons (- 450) [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The market for natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber shows complex trends influenced by various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, international trade policies, and economic indicators. For example, the supply of natural rubber is affected by weather conditions, harvest areas, and import - export policies in major producing countries. Demand is closely related to the automotive and tire industries, with factors like vehicle production, sales, and tire inventory levels playing important roles. Additionally, macro - economic indicators such as global stock market values, manufacturing PMIs, and interest rates also impact the rubber market [120][142][230]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - **RU Natural Rubber**: Prices fluctuate over time. For instance, on 25 - 09 - 10, the RU main 01 contract closed at 15915 points, down 25 points or 0.16% [1]. - **NR 20 - number Rubber**: Similar to RU, NR prices also change. On 25 - 09 - 10, the NR main 11 contract closed at 12695 points, down 40 points or 0.31% [1]. - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: The price of BR has its own movement pattern. On 25 - 09 - 10, the BR main 11 contract closed at 11655 points, down 20 points or 0.17% [2]. Important News - **Trade Policies**: China launched an anti - dumping investigation into imported halogenated butyl rubber from Canada, Japan, and India. Brazil extended the 10.8% natural rubber import tariff for 24 months. The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation into new passenger and light - truck pneumatic rubber tires imported from China [2][7][345]. - **Company News**: Hainan Rubber suffered losses due to Typhoon "Jianyu". The Qingdao - based Sino - Chem Equipment planned a major asset restructuring. Michelin South America will close its Brazil factory [14][173][222]. Logical Analysis - **Supply - Demand Factors**: In July, the average price of domestic car tires increased, while that of truck and bus tires decreased. The inventory levels of various rubber products in different regions and warehouses also changed, affecting the market supply - demand balance. For example, the inventory of Qingdao Bonded Area showed different trends of accumulation or depletion [2][7]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Global stock market values, manufacturing PMIs, and interest rates all have an impact on the rubber market. For example, a decline in the global stock market value may lead to a decrease in market confidence and thus affect the rubber price [142]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies include holding short or long positions, or taking a wait - and - see approach for different contracts such as RU and NR. For example, on 25 - 09 - 10, it was recommended to hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and the NR main 11 contract [1][3]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Involves trading combinations like RU2511 - BR2511 and RU2511 - NR2511, with specific stop - loss settings [3][8]. - **Options Trading**: Generally, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's rubber industry has achieved significant progress in industrial scale, technological innovation, structural transformation, and internationalization [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The rubber industry in China has seen a profit growth of 62.8% compared to 2019, with the number of large-scale rubber product enterprises increasing by 26.3% [1] - The industry's operating revenue has grown by 18%, and the export delivery value has increased by 40.2% [1] - The production of radial tires has risen by 36.7% [1] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Advances in technological innovation include the development of bio-based rubber with significant energy-saving and carbon-reduction effects, and the transition from steam vulcanization machines to electric vulcanization machines [1] Group 3: Industry Upgrading - The industry is accelerating its upgrade from low-end to high-end products, moving towards green and intelligent development [1] Group 4: Internationalization - The rubber industry is actively expanding internationally, with companies establishing factories abroad and increasing export volumes [1] Group 5: Challenges - The industry faces challenges such as rapid capacity expansion, structural contradictions in low-end products, intensified competition, and significant pressure from international anti-dumping and countervailing policies, particularly affecting the tire sector [1] Group 6: Future Directions - The rubber industry aims to focus on green low-carbon, intelligent, high-end, and international development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - Emphasis will be placed on promoting green low-carbon transformation in response to domestic and international policy requirements [2] - Accelerating the intelligent upgrade of the entire industry chain is a priority, including automation and smart product innovations [2] Group 7: High-End Development - The industry will focus on increasing the proportion of high-end products in natural and synthetic rubber, enhancing collaboration across the supply chain, and fostering partnerships with academic and research institutions [3] Group 8: Internationalization and Branding - The rubber industry will pursue internationalization and brand development, aiming to enhance product value and build globally recognized Chinese brands [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic rubber market is currently experiencing a lackluster performance, with the RU2601 contract facing resistance from previous high levels, and the potential for a strong upward trend similar to September of last year depends on market momentum changes [1] Supply Side Analysis - Supply from major producing regions is affected by weather conditions, with Thailand's rubber water price at 54.2 THB/kg, down 15% from 64.4 THB/kg last year, while Yunnan's rubber water price slightly increased by 0.7% to 14,500 CNY/ton [2] - From January to July, China imported a total of 1.6534 million tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 35.01%, while mixed rubber imports reached 1.9067 million tons, up 12.47% year-on-year, totaling 3.56 million tons with a 21.92% increase [2] - Monthly data shows a narrowing increase in natural rubber imports since June, turning negative in July, primarily due to frequent rainfall in Southeast Asia delaying rubber tapping operations, leading to tighter supply [2] Demand Side Analysis - In July, there were signs of improvement in demand, with the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tires significantly increasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, and heavy truck sales showing a strong year-on-year growth [3] - Tire exports reached a record high in July, with 812,600 tons exported, an increase of 8.87% month-on-month and 11.48% year-on-year, while total exports from January to July were 4.9339 million tons, up 7.18% year-on-year [3] - The inventory of sample enterprises for all-steel tires is at a low level, with available days of inventory at 39.22 days, down 0.23 days from the previous month and 4.12 days from the same period last year, indicating some specifications are even out of stock [3] Price Trends and Market Outlook - Historically, there is a high probability of price increases for all-steel tire products before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, as this period is crucial for channel replenishment [4] - Continuous rainfall has significantly disrupted natural rubber production in major producing areas, leading to supply increases falling short of expectations, while demand remains resilient with strong heavy truck sales [4] - The raw material price trend will be a key variable affecting future market conditions, with the recommendation for investors to maintain a low-position long strategy supported by both fundamental and macroeconomic factors [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of domestic Shandong market cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, and the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China was between 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton. The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient, but some private enterprises in Shandong and East China are expected to undergo maintenance. With the raw material market being generally strong, some traders and downstream buyers have increased their purchases. The inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly this week, while that of trading enterprises increased. Next week, the supply will decrease slightly, and the inventory of production enterprises and sample trading may decline. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase next week, but the increase may be limited. The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,500 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of domestic Shandong market cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, with the spot price between 11,600 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China at 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton as of September 4, 2025 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Some private enterprises in Shandong and East China are expected to undergo maintenance. The inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly this week, and that of trading enterprises increased. Next week, some plants are expected to shut down for about 20 days, and the supply will decrease slightly. The overall capacity utilization rate will increase next week, but the increase may be limited [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,500 yuan [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the given content. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of September 5, the spread between butadiene rubber contracts 10 - 11 was 5 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 4, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,770 tons, an increase of 280 tons from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of September 4, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.4 Upstream Market - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of September 4, the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 592.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.38 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 840 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of September 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.45%, an increase of 0.54% from last week; the butadiene port inventory was 30,950 tons, an increase of 6,950 tons from last week [32]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization**: In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from last month. As of September 4, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 76.16%, an increase of 0.31% from last week [35]. - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Production Profit**: As of September 4, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 462 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of September 5, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 31,910 tons, an increase of 190 tons from last week; the inventory of manufacturers was 24,650 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from last week; the inventory of traders was 7,260 tons, an increase of 640 tons from last week [42]. 3.6 Downstream Market - **Tire开工率**: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a decrease of 4.05 percentage points month - on - month and 12.98 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points month - on - month and 1.12 percentage points year - on - year [45]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, an increase of 8.87% month - on - month and 11.48% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative tire export volume was 4,933,900 tons, a cumulative increase of 7.18% year - on - year [48].

Market Overview - On September 5, the rubber sector increased by 3.75% compared to the previous trading day, with Sanwei Equipment leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51, up 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56, up 3.89% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the rubber sector showed significant gains, with Sanwei Equipment rising by 9.75% to a closing price of 15.99, and Tian Tie Technology increasing by 6.39% to 8.82 [1] - Other notable performers included Heimao Co. at 11.40 (+6.34%), Kexin New Source at 47.42 (+6.04%), and Sanwei Co. at 13.29 (+5.31%) [1] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The trading volume for Sanwei Equipment was 71,200 shares, with a transaction value of 111 million yuan, while Tian Tie Technology had a volume of 692,500 shares and a transaction value of 601 million yuan [1] - The rubber sector experienced a net outflow of 5.28 million yuan from institutional investors and 41.84 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 47.12 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - Tian Tie Technology had a net inflow of 50.17 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 35.93 million yuan from speculative funds [2] - Heimao Co. also saw a net inflow of 28.30 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 13.92 million yuan from speculative funds [2] - Kexin New Source had a net inflow of 22.21 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 19.37 million yuan [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [8] Core Viewpoints - The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue, with domestic Qingdao port and social inventories showing a slight decline. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories during the upcoming traditional peak season [8] - For BR, production is expected to decline in September, but downstream demand is likely to pick up during the traditional peak season, leading to a slight improvement in the supply - demand situation. The inventory is expected to remain stable, and the cost - side support still exists [8] Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,960 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,735 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,810 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 15,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,845 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Global Natural Rubber Supply and Demand - ANRPC's July 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in July would slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, up 7.9% from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons, down 0.3% from the previous month. In the first 7 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, while the cumulative consumption would decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] China's Heavy - Truck Market - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), down 1% month - on - month and up about 35% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative sales in China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, up about 13% year - on - year [2] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 919,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 227,000 tons, up 25% year - on - year; the export of latex was 431,000 tons, up 9% year - on - year. From January to July, Thailand's exports of natural rubber to China totaled 622,000 tons, up 7% year - on - year. The export of standard rubber to China was 398,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 65,000 tons, up 306% year - on - year; the export of latex to China was 157,000 tons, up 65% year - on - year [2] China's Natural Rubber Imports - In July 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheet rubber, rubber in primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 474,800 tons, up 2.47% month - on - month and down 1.91% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, up 21.82% year - on - year [3] Cote d'Ivoire's Rubber Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, up 14.3% compared with the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [3] China's Rubber Tire Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's exports of rubber tires reached 5.63 million tons, up 5.4% year - on - year, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% year - on - year. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, up 4.9% year - on - year, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, up 4.9% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 4, 2025, the RU basis was - 910 yuan/ton (- 25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 985 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,293 yuan/ton (+ 54.64), the NR basis was 403.00 yuan/ton (+ 34.00); the price of whole latex was 15,050 yuan/ton (+ 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton (+ 20), the price of 3L spot was 15,150 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,845 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,400 yuan/ton (+ 20) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 61.35 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.05 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.75), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.75 Thai baht/kg (- 0.55) [5][6] 开工率 - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.74% (- 4.15%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 66.92% (- 4.05%) [7] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,264,898 tons (- 5,911.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (- 3,908), the RU futures inventory was 178,640 tons (+ 170), and the NR futures inventory was 45,662 tons (+ 805) [7] 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spreads - On September 4, 2025, the BR basis was - 60 yuan/ton (+ 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (+ 0), the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,800 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,343 yuan/ton (+ 16) [7] 开工率 - The operating rate of high - cis BR was 76.16% (+ 0.31%) [7] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,260 tons (+ 640), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 24,650 tons (- 450) [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].