Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key developments and policies announced during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, emphasizing the integration of technology and industry, financial reforms, and the establishment of Shanghai as an international financial center [3][4][6][12]. Policy Highlights - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of high-end, intelligent, and green development in the engineering machinery industry, advocating for the integration of technological innovation with industrial needs [3]. - Vice Premier He Lifeng encouraged enterprises to focus on their core businesses and innovate in products and technologies while adapting to the new development pattern of dual circulation [3]. Financial Governance - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng proposed eight policy measures to enhance global financial governance, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and improvements in cross-border payment systems [4][5]. - The measures aim to strengthen Shanghai's position as an international financial center and improve the international monetary system [4][5]. Financial Regulation - Financial Regulatory Administration Chief Li Yunzhe emphasized the importance of open cooperation in financial reform, supporting foreign investment in green finance, and enhancing the multi-pillar pension system [6][7]. - The administration plans to collaborate with the Shanghai government to promote the development of Shanghai as an international financial hub [6][7]. Capital Market Development - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing announced initiatives to promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation, including reforms to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and measures to support technology-driven companies [8][9]. - The focus is on enhancing the capital market's role in supporting innovation and improving the financial service system for technology enterprises [8][9]. Foreign Exchange Management - SAFE Chief Zhu Hexin outlined plans for a more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent foreign exchange management system, including reforms to direct investment foreign exchange management and enhancing the foreign exchange market [10][11]. - The goal is to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market while supporting the real economy [10][11]. Shanghai International Financial Center - The Central Financial Committee and the Shanghai government issued opinions to accelerate the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, focusing on market development, institutional capacity, and financial infrastructure [12][13]. - The plan includes enhancing cross-border trade and investment facilitation and improving the financial service quality for the real economy [12][13]. Hong Kong-Shanghai Cooperation - The signing of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong International Financial Center Collaborative Development Action Plan" aims to enhance cooperation in financial services, infrastructure connectivity, and cross-border payment systems [14][15]. - The action plan includes 38 measures to strengthen collaboration in various financial sectors, including green finance and technology [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" issued by six Chinese government departments, aiming to enhance financial services in the consumption sector and stimulate economic growth through various measures [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - Financial support for boosting and expanding consumption is essential for serving the real economy and reflects the political and people-oriented nature of financial work [5]. - The strategy combines optimizing supply with expanding demand, increasing financial resources for consumption supply, and improving financial service levels for consumption demand [5][6]. Group 2: Enhancing Consumption Capacity - Strengthening macroeconomic foundations and stabilizing consumer expectations through supportive monetary and fiscal policies [7]. - Supporting employment and income growth to enhance consumer confidence, particularly for small and micro enterprises [7][8]. - Optimizing the insurance and pension systems to improve consumer willingness to spend [8]. Group 3: Expanding Financial Supply in Consumption - Encouraging financial institutions to enhance their service capabilities and provide tailored financial products for diverse consumer needs [9]. - Utilizing structural monetary policy tools to support key service consumption sectors, with a focus on loans for retail, hospitality, and entertainment [10]. - Promoting bond market financing for cultural, tourism, and educational sectors to enhance consumption credit supply [10][11]. Group 4: Supporting Key Consumption Areas - Encouraging financial institutions to provide multi-channel support for consumer goods, including trade-in services for old vehicles and appliances [12]. - Increasing credit support for service consumption sectors such as hospitality, retail, and elder care, with a focus on small and micro enterprises [13]. - Exploring financial support for new consumption models, including digital, green, and health-related consumption [14]. Group 5: Strengthening Financial Infrastructure - Supporting the construction of consumer infrastructure, including cultural and sports facilities, and optimizing financial products for these projects [15]. - Enhancing financial support for logistics and supply chain projects to reduce costs and improve efficiency in the consumption sector [16]. Group 6: Optimizing the Consumption Environment - Improving payment services to enhance consumer experience across various payment methods [17]. - Establishing a robust credit system in the consumption sector to facilitate access to financial services [18]. - Strengthening consumer rights protection mechanisms to ensure transparency and security in financial transactions [19]. Group 7: Organizational Support - Enhancing coordination among financial management departments and relevant authorities to effectively implement consumption support policies [20]. - Improving statistical monitoring and evaluation of financial support for consumption to ensure targeted and effective resource allocation [20].

Domestic Policy News - The second China-Central Asia Summit was held, emphasizing the "China-Central Asia spirit" and the construction of a community with a shared future [10][11] - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of innovation-driven development during his visit to Jiangsu, aiming to expand effective demand and stimulate high-quality economic growth [12][13] Overseas Policy News - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, reflecting a cautious approach to economic uncertainties [14][20] - The Fed's semiannual monetary policy report indicated a stable economic expansion but acknowledged persistent inflation risks, particularly from tariffs and geopolitical tensions [16][20] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices falling by 1.76% and 1.66% respectively, amid ongoing uncertainties in US-China negotiations [22][23] - The central bank announced eight significant financial opening measures during the Lujiazui Forum, aimed at enhancing financial cooperation and high-quality development [23][24] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank's actions led to a loosening of the funding environment, with the DR007 rate dropping below 1.5% [3][22] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market saw fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals rebounding and oil prices experiencing slight volatility [3][4] Forex Market Analysis - The US dollar index rebounded slightly, closing at 98.76, influenced by the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [4][20] Major Asset Rotation Outlook - The report suggests a defensive approach in equity markets, emphasizing the importance of gold and convertible bonds as potential investment opportunities [4][20]

Company Insights - Tesla's stock surged over 8%, marking its largest single-day increase since April 28, as the company launched approximately 10 autonomous taxis in Austin, Texas, charging a flat fare of $4.2 per ride [2] - JinkoSolar's high-efficiency N-type monocrystalline silicon cells and N-type TOPCon high-efficiency photovoltaic modules received third-party certification, indicating advancements in solar technology [14] Industry Insights - The Chinese government, through nine departments, issued a plan for the high-quality development of the gold industry, aiming for a 5%-10% increase in gold resource volume and over 5% growth in gold and silver production by 2027 [3] - The solar power sector experienced a record-breaking installation of over 90 GW in May, representing a staggering 388% increase compared to the same month last year, with a total of 197.85 GW added from January to May 2025, reflecting a nearly 150% year-on-year growth [4] - The cobalt market is expected to see a new price surge due to the Democratic Republic of the Congo extending its cobalt export ban by three months, with domestic cobalt prices projected to exceed 250,000 yuan per ton [10] - The automotive industry is focusing on smart and connected vehicles, with a target for L2 and above level intelligent connected cars to account for over 90% of new vehicles by 2027, indicating significant growth potential in related sectors [11] - The GLP-1 weight loss drug market in China is projected to exceed 15 billion yuan by 2025, driven by an expanding obese population, policy support, and technological advancements [12]

去年8月，中国人民银行与香港金管局签署谅解备忘录，正式启动内地-香港跨境支付互联互通计划。 经过10个月的筹备，这一系统于今年6月22日正式上线，标志着两地金融基础设施互联互通迈入新阶段。 跨境支付通，是内地的网上支付跨行清算系统（IBPS）与香港快速支付系统"转数快"的互联，为两地居民及机构提供安全、高效和便捷的实时跨境支付服 务。两地居民可以透过输入收款方的手机号码或账户号码，进行实时小额跨境汇款。 根据香港金管局介绍，在个人对个人的汇款过程中，对于香港身份证持有人，每人每日上限1万港元，每年上限20万港元（以每家参与机构计算），此限额 独立于现时每日8万元人民币的同名汇款限额；对于内地身份证持有人，现行个人年度购汇便利化额度为5万美元。 | | 北向(香港至內地) | 南向(內地至香港) | | --- | --- | --- | | 匯款人 | 香港身份證持有人 | 内地身份證持有人 | | 上限 | · 每人每日上限港幣10,000元,每年上限港幣 200,000元(以每家參與機構計算) | · 現行個人年度購匯便利佔額度50,000美元 | | | · 此限額獨立於現時每日人民幣80,000元的同 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China, particularly regarding interest rates and fiscal policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Outlook**: The bond market is expected to experience a wide range of fluctuations in the second half of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to range between 1.5% and 1.8% [2][3][11]. 2. **Monetary Policy**: There is an expectation that monetary policy will not undergo significant easing, with limited room for interest rate cuts and a potential 50 basis points for reserve requirement ratio adjustments [3][7]. 3. **Fiscal Stimulus**: A new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion is anticipated, with 100 billion allocated for private investment, which is expected to have a significant multiplier effect on GDP [5][6]. 4. **GDP Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for the year is around 5%, with expectations that investment will precede consumption in driving this growth [6][5]. 5. **Impact of External Tariffs**: The negative impact of external tariffs on exports is expected to be less severe than previously anticipated, with a gradual improvement in data post-June [4][5]. 6. **Debt Supply**: The total supply of bonds is projected to be around 6.88 trillion, with a monthly net financing of approximately 1.15 trillion, which is stable compared to previous years [8][9]. 7. **Institutional Behavior**: Institutional behaviors are expected to influence the bond market significantly, with banks and insurance companies adjusting their strategies based on market conditions [10][12][17]. 8. **Credit Market Performance**: The credit market is expected to outperform interest rate products, with strategies suggested for public institutions to adopt diagonal strategies for credit yield [30][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Consumer Spending**: The government has approved 300 billion for consumer spending, with 160 billion already in progress, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate consumption [6]. - **Long-term Rate Predictions**: Long-term interest rates are expected to gradually decline, potentially reaching below 1.5% by the end of 2025 or 2026, although significant downward movement is limited [29]. - **Market Sensitivity**: There is an increasing sensitivity of the macroeconomic environment to changes in the debt financial cycle, which may affect future predictions and risk assessments [32]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on the bond market, monetary policy, fiscal measures, and broader economic implications.

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 宏观定期 政策半月观—下半年政策有 4 大节点 近半月，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行，陆家嘴论坛召开。我们对每 半月重大政策进行跟踪：1）中央、部委重要会议与政策；2）地方政策；3） 行业与产业政策。本期为近半月（2025.6.9-6.22）的政策跟踪。 核心结论：总体看，近半月政策延续聚焦稳增长、扩内需，具体有 6 大焦点： 一是 6.9-10 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行，聚焦关税和稀土，本次 会议后中美关税水平保持现状，但随着 7.9（对全球）和 8.12（对中国）两个 暂缓期结束，继续紧盯后续美国与中国、欧盟等关税谈判。二是 6.17 总书记 出席第二节中国-中亚峰会并作主旨发言，继 4 月东南亚之行、5 月访问俄罗 斯，6 月来到中亚，也是今年以来第三次元首出访聚焦周边，此次峰会聚焦共 建"一带一路"、人员往来便利化、绿色矿产、贸易畅通等领域。三是 6.18 陆 家嘴论坛开幕，"一行一会一局"一把手出席开幕式并发表主题演讲，其中， 央行将在上海实施 8 项金融开放政策，金监总局聚焦支持上海金融开放，证 ...

Core Insights - Global ESG development is characterized by simultaneous technological innovation and policy improvement, indicating a steady progression towards deep technological innovation, diversified financial tools, and pragmatic policy adjustments in the ESG sector [2][6] - In the carbon neutrality field, Norway has launched the world's first comprehensive CCS value chain "Longship," with an annual storage capacity of 1.5 million tons [2][6][17] - The UK government has allocated £200 million for the Acorn carbon capture project, expected to reduce emissions by 18 million tons annually [2][6] - TerraPower has secured $650 million in funding to advance the construction of advanced nuclear reactors [2][6] - Australia has introduced the world's first sustainable finance taxonomy covering high-emission industries, aiming to guide investments towards green and transitional activities [2][6][13] International ESG Events - Amazon Air has begun using sustainable aviation fuel provided by Neste, with a supply of 7,500 tons planned for 2025 [6][9] - SAP has signed a carbon removal agreement with Climeworks for 37,000 tons of carbon removal credits by 2034 [6][9] - The European Union has simplified carbon border tax rules, exempting 90% of small business imports [6][9] Domestic ESG Developments - In China, the delivery of the world's largest and most efficient methanol reserve car carrier "Anji Hongsheng" marks a significant achievement in carbon neutrality [2][6] - Fujian has released a long-term hydrogen energy industry plan aiming for an annual green hydrogen production capacity of 100,000 tons by 2035 [2][6] - The Shanghai completion of the world's first ship-to-ship liquid CO2 unloading operation establishes a complete carbon cycle system [2][6] Academic Frontiers - Research published in the "International Review of Financial Analysis" indicates that incorporating climate risk factors into financial models can enhance the accuracy of industry volatility predictions [2][4] - A study in "Econometrica" highlights the significant impact of large-scale battery storage on electricity market prices and renewable energy integration [2][4] - Research in "Nature" assesses the impacts of climate change on global agriculture, emphasizing the challenges to food security despite adaptation measures [2][4] Sustainable Finance Initiatives - The Australian sustainable finance taxonomy aims to support the transition to a low-carbon economy and enhance investor confidence in low-carbon investments [13][12] - Volkswagen Bank has successfully issued its first green bond worth €1.5 billion to support electric vehicle financing [6][9] - Goldman Sachs has launched an emerging markets green and social bond ETF to provide investors with exposure to sustainable fixed-income securities [6][9]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the recent economic data releases and geopolitical tensions affecting market dynamics, particularly in China and the U.S. [2][3] Economic Data Summary - In May 2025, China's industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 5.7%, but down from the previous value of 6.1% [2] - From January to May 2025, fixed asset investment in China grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.0% and the previous value of 4.0% [2] - In May 2025, China's retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1% [2] - In the U.S., retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, worse than the expected decline of 0.7%, indicating a weakening consumer momentum [2][6] Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating a potential for two rate cuts in 2025 [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a loose monetary environment amid economic challenges [4] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have led to increased uncertainty in global markets, impacting risk assets negatively [5][6] Market Performance Overview - The bond market in China saw slight gains due to the economic data indicating a need for enhanced domestic demand [4] - A-shares experienced a pullback during the Lujiazui Forum, as the anticipated policy benefits did not resonate with the market, compounded by external geopolitical tensions [5] - U.S. stock markets remained volatile, influenced by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and disappointing retail sales data [6]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 6 月 22 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 本周 A 股表现弱势 我们维持后续大类资产配置顺序为：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.45%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 2.17%；焦煤期货 本周上涨 3.04%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 0.07%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率下跌 2BP 至 1.16%；十年国债收益率与上周持平，仍为 1.64%，活跃十 年国债期货本周上涨 0.15%。 资产配置建议 20250619 《降息应在涨价后》20250619 《论坛内容侧重长期制度建设》20250619 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 5 月经济数据表现延续内部分化，但与此前的经济特点有所不同：工业增 加值同比增速较 4 月有所下降，社零同比增速较 4 月明显上升，且好于万 得一致预期，固投累计同比增速较 1-4 月继续小幅下降。 6 月 18 日，2025 陆家嘴论坛在上海开幕，"一行两局一会"主要负责人 重磅发声；其中，央行宣布八项重磅金融政策；金融监管总局会同上海市 人民政府 ...