Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated downward on Friday, with the main March contract closing down 0.40% to 14.82 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main March contract closed down 0.05% to $425.60 per ton. The market is stimulated by the decline in Brazil's sugar - making ratio and early harvest, and the dry weather in central - southern Brazil supports sugar prices, while the increasing supply in the Northern Hemisphere suppresses sugar prices [7]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded yesterday. The 01 contract closed at 5,337 yuan per ton, up 18 yuan or 0.34%, with a reduction of 27,587 positions. The domestic new sugar price has been lowered. In the fundamental aspect, the number of sugar mills in the south starting production is increasing, the market lacks confidence, and the new sugar price is falling. The short - sellers of the main SR601 contract have completed position transfer or hedging. The large discount of the 01 contract and only 1,671 warehouse receipts are unfavorable to short - sellers, and there may be a market to repair the basis with a space of about 100 yuan [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: SR601 closed at 5,337 yuan per ton, up 18 yuan or 0.34%, with a position reduction of 27,587. SR605 closed at 5,244 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position increase of 14,181. The US sugar 03 contract closed at 14.82 cents per pound, down 0.06 cents or 0.40%, with a position reduction of 2,516. The US sugar 05 contract closed at 14.41 cents per pound, down 0.01 cents or 0.07%, with a position reduction of 342 [7]. 2. Industry News - **Brazil**: In November, Brazil exported about 3.3023 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 2.48%. From April 2025 to November 2025 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Brazil had cumulatively exported 25.2591 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [9]. - **India**: The average production cost of sugar in India has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram. The industry calls for an increase in the minimum selling price of sugar. From the start of the 2025 - 26 sugar - crushing season to November 30, 2025, the sugar production reached 4.108 million tons, compared with 2.876 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation increased to 428, compared with 376 in the same period last year [9]. - **Yunnan**: As of December 8, 2025, 16 sugar mills in Yunnan had started production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 6 more than the same period last year. The planned design capacity of the operating sugar mills was 59,900 tons per day, an increase of 23,500 tons per day compared with the same period last year [9]. - **Guangxi**: As of December 6 - 7, 2025, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 11 fewer than the same period last year. The daily sugar - cane crushing capacity was 425,000 tons, a decrease of 112,500 tons compared with the same period last year [9]. 3. Data Overview - **Futures Trading Data**: The table shows the trading volume, position changes of the top 20 members in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures, including details such as the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of each member and their changes [22].

Core Insights - International sugar prices rebounded in November, with ICE raw sugar futures closing at 15.21 cents per pound, a monthly increase of 5.48% [1] - Domestic sugar prices in China declined due to supply pressures, with Zhengzhou white sugar futures closing at 5400 yuan per ton, a monthly decrease of 1.51% [1] - The global sugar market is expected to have a supply gap of only 231,000 tons for the 2025/2026 season, indicating a near balance between supply and demand [2] Group 1: International Market Dynamics - The increase in global sugar production is primarily driven by India, Thailand, and Pakistan, with total production expected to reach 180.59 million tons, an increase of 5.42 million tons from the previous season [2] - Global sugar consumption is projected to rise to 180.82 million tons, with Asia and Africa being the main growth drivers over the next decade [2] - The USDA and Datagro predict a potential global sugar surplus ranging from 1 million to 4.2 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, reflecting uncertainty in future supply chains [2] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to increase by 300,000 to 700,000 tons, aligning with market expectations of 40 to 41 million tons [3] - As of mid-November, Brazil's cumulative sugar production reached 39.18 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.09% [3][4] - Despite a decrease in sugarcane crushing volume, the increase in the sugar extraction rate (ATR) has helped maintain production levels [4] Group 3: India's Sugar Sector - India's sugar production is projected to increase significantly, with the government raising the minimum sugarcane purchase price to 3,550 rupees per ton, a 4.41% increase [5] - The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) estimates a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, an 18.54% increase from the previous season [6] - The Indian government has allowed the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar for the 2025/2026 season, with calls for additional export quotas due to high production levels [6] Group 4: Thailand's Recovery - Thailand's sugar production is expected to recover significantly, with total sugar production projected between 10.5 million to 11 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, an increase from the previous season [7] - The official start of the sugarcane crushing season is set for December 1, with favorable weather conditions anticipated to boost production [7] Group 5: China's Sugar Market - China's sugar production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to reach 11.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 540,000 tons [8] - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from both increased local production and high import levels, leading to a potentially oversupplied market [8][9] - As of late November, the number of sugar factories operating in Guangxi has decreased, reflecting challenges faced by producers amid low prices [9] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is expected to transition from expectations to reality, with key factors being the actual implementation of India's ethanol policy and the final production levels in the Northern Hemisphere [13] - The domestic sugar market is likely to experience continued pressure from new sugar supply and imports, with prices fluctuating around the production cost level [13] - A potential rebound in sugar prices may depend on seasonal consumption increases and stronger international sugar prices [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The SR2501 contract is less than one month away from the delivery month. Last week, the 01 - 03 spread was basically stable with a slight premium. The strong performance of 01 is due to the fact that the current price of new sugar is generally higher than that of old sugar and higher than the futures price, leading to the need for spot - futures convergence under the condition of the futures price being at a discount. However, the huge supply pressure poses a great challenge to both the spot and futures markets, making it difficult to achieve convergence through a rebound. The SR2603 and SR2605 contracts currently show a structure where the near - term contracts are at a discount, mainly because the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to have an increased production. The discount of the far - term contracts is widening. In the long run, the 03 contract faces pressure during the off - season of consumption and the peak of inventory, not less than the 01 contract, while the 05 contract will be impacted by imported sugar. Therefore, the pattern of the far - term discount is difficult to break, and the spread may widen further [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Domestic Market - The spot price in Nanning is 5450 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it is 5340 - 5420 yuan/ton [3] - China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3] - As of December 1st, 39 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, 22 less than the same period last year. The daily crushing capacity is 309,500 tons/day, a year - on - year decrease of 187,500 tons/day [3] International Market - According to ISMA data, India had produced 4.1 million tons of sugar as of the end of November, higher than 2.88 million tons last year [4] - Brazil exported 3.3023 million tons of sugar in November, a year - on - year decrease of 2.59% [4] - ISMA estimates that India's sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 34.35 million tons (including ethanol), with 3.4 million tons used for ethanol [4] - India has signed contracts to export 100,000 tons of sugar, and the shipment will be delivered before mid - January, and the transportation has started. The weakening of the rupee may promote more trade [4] - The market expects that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November increased by 14.9% to 18.85 million tons, and sugar production increased by 18.9% year - on - year to 1.075 million tons [4] - India has opened an export quota of 1.5 million tons, lower than the market's expectation of 2 million tons. Due to the current domestic sugar price in India being higher than the overseas price, the possibility of exports is low at present [4] - As of November 19th, 147 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, have started production, crushing 11.277 million tons of sugarcane and producing 868,100 quintals of sugar, with an average sugar recovery rate of 7.4%. In the same period last year, only 91 mills were in operation, crushing 1.35 million tons of sugarcane, with a sugar recovery rate of 4.2% [4] Sugar Futures Weekly Prices and Spreads | Contract | Closing Price on 2025 - 12 - 08 | Change Rate | Spread | Closing Price on 2025 - 12 - 08 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR01 | 5337 | 0.64% | SR01 - 05 | 70 | 0 | | SR03 | 5281 | 0.3% | SR05 - 09 | - 20 | 0 | | SR05 | 5244 | 0.21% | SR09 - 01 | - 50 | 0 | | SR07 | 5257 | 0.25% | SR01 - 03 | 38 | 0 | | SR09 | 5262 | 0.17% | SR03 - 05 | 32 | 0 | | SR11 | 5263 | 0.29% | SR05 - 07 | - 11 | 0 | | SB | 14.82 | 0% | SR07 - 09 | - 9 | 0 | | W | 425.7 | 0% | SR09 - 11 | 5 | 0 | | | | | SR11 - 01 | - 55 | 0 | [6] Sugar Spot Weekly Prices and Spreads | Location | Price on 2025 - 12 - 08 | Change | Spread | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nanning | 5360 | - 80 | Nanning - Liuzhou | 10 | 0 | | Liuzhou | 5350 | - 80 | Nanning - Kunming | 20 | 10 | | Kunming | 5320 | - 110 | Nanning - Zhanjiang | 60 | 10 | | Zhanjiang | 5300 | - 100 | Nanning - Rizhao | - 290 | 60 | | Rizhao | 5650 | - 150 | Nanning - Urumqi | 260 | 60 | | Urumqi | 5100 | - 150 | Kunming - Rizhao | - 310 | 50 | [7] Sugar Weekly Basis | Location - Contract | Basis on 2025 - 12 - 08 | Change | Location - Contract | Basis on 2025 - 12 - 08 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nanning - SR01 | 107 | 42 | Kunming - SR01 | 67 | 47 | | Nanning - SR03 | 145 | 38 | Kunming - SR03 | 105 | 43 | | Nanning - SR05 | 177 | 40 | Kunming - SR05 | 137 | 45 | | Nanning - SR07 | 166 | 37 | Kunming - SR07 | 126 | 42 | | Nanning - SR09 | 157 | 32 | Kunming - SR09 | 117 | 37 | | Nanning - SR11 | 162 | 34 | Kunming - SR11 | 122 | 39 | [8][10] Sugar Weekly Import Price Changes | Import Source | Quota - in Price on 2025 - 12 - 05 | Weekly Change | Quota - out Price | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brazil | 4079 | - 93 | 5168 | - 121 | | Rizhao - Brazil | 1556 | - 72 | 462 | - 49 | | Liuzhou - Brazil | 1240 | 4 | 151 | 32 | | Zhengzhou Sugar - Brazil | 1224 | - 4 | 135 | 24 | | Thailand | 4127 | - 91 | 5231 | - 118 | | Rizhao - Thailand | 1507 | - 75 | 399 | - 52 | | Liuzhou - Thailand | 1192 | 2 | 88 | 29 | | Zhengzhou Sugar - Thailand | 1176 | - 6 | 72 | 21 | [11]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Date: December 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Data - SRO9: Closing price 5,262, increase of 0.17%, volume 6,374, increase of 1,257, open interest 28,876, increase of 1,892 [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,337, increase of 34, increase rate of 0.64%, volume 173,785, increase of 20,741, open interest 289,716, decrease of 27,587 [3] - SROE: Closing price 5,244, increase of 11, increase rate of 0.21%, volume 118,780, increase of 25,273, open interest 309,725, increase of 14,181 [3] Spot Price Data - Sugar spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,505 (no change), Kunming 5,345 (decrease of 25), Wuhan 5,810 (no change), Nanning 5,430 (no change), Yingkou 0 (no data), Rizhao 5,700 (no change), Xi'an 5,960 (decrease of 20) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 168, Kunming (data missing), Wuhan 473, Nanning 93, Rizhao 363, Xi'an 623 [3] Inter - month Spread Data - SR05 - SR01: Spread - 23, change - 33; SR09 - SR05: Spread 18, change - 2; SR09 - SR01: Spread - 75, change - 25 [3] Import Profit Data - Brazilian imports: ICE主力 14.82, premium (0.19), freight 37.75, in - quota price 4,049, out - of - quota price 5,144, spread with Liuzhou 361, spread with Rizhao 556.00, spread with the market 193 [3] - Thai imports: ICE主力 14.82, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4,082, out - of - quota price 5,192, spread with Liuzhou 313, spread with Rizhao 508.00, spread with the market 145 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - As of December 8, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, 11 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 425,000 tons, 112,500 tons less than the same period last year. 16 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, 6 more than the same period last year, with a planned daily crushing capacity of 59,900 tons, 23,500 tons more than the same period last year [5] - In November 2025, the actual arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar was 114,500 tons, and the forecasted arrival was 363,500 tons [6] Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest stage, the sugar - making ratio has decreased, and the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil is 39.179 million tons, 800,000 tons more than the same period last year. International sugar prices show signs of bottom - building and are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [8] - Domestically, sugar mills are starting to crush, and the supply and sales pressure will gradually increase. However, due to tightened imports of syrups and premixes and high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are relatively high, supporting the futures price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Brazilian sugar supply pressure is easing, international sugar prices are showing signs of bottom - building, and are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term. Domestically, although there are sales pressure, considering the high production cost and low futures price, it is recommended to build long positions at low prices [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options at low prices [10] Group 4: Related Diagrams - Diagrams include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, monthly production, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, sugar basis for different months, and inter - month spreads for different contracts [11][14][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The sugar market is expected to remain weak under multiple supply pressures, and the main contract may continue to test the support around 5,200 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The core contradiction lies in the imbalance between the supply increase caused by the concentrated listing of new domestic and foreign sugar and the weak downstream demand. The accelerated domestic crushing progress and the optimistic production expectations of major international producers have jointly pressured the market, leading to a simultaneous weakening of futures and spot prices, with funds leaving the market to wait and see, and the market struggling to find effective support in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Review**: The 11 - day sugar continuous contract closed at 14.8, down 2.70% from last Friday; the main Zhengzhou sugar contract closed at 5,303 yuan/ton, down 1.80%. Spot prices in major domestic producing areas generally declined, with Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming down 1.65%, 1.65%, and 1.84% respectively. The basis of Liuzhou sugar and the main contract increased by 17.50% to 47 yuan/ton. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts remained unchanged at 183. Market sentiment showed that the proportion of those bullish, bearish, and neutral on Zhengzhou sugar remained unchanged at 10%, 55%, and 35% respectively [5]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **China's Sugar Production and Sales**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Sugarcane Sugar Production and Sales in Major Producing Areas**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Beet Sugar Production and Sales in Major Producing Areas**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory**: The data has not been updated, and the market is concerned about the inventory accumulation progress after the listing of new sugar [3]. - **China's Sugar Import and Export**: The import profit margin has expanded. The processing profits of Thai and Brazilian sugar within the quota increased by 1.66% and 2.14% week - on - week respectively, and the profits outside the quota increased even more (7.47% and 8.68%) [3]. - **China's Major Sugar Importing Countries**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit**: The import processing cost decreased by 1% - 2% week - on - week. For Brazil, the quota - within processing cost decreased by 1.58% to 3,987 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside decreased by 1.63% to 5,085 yuan/ton; the quota - within import profit increased by 2.14% to 1,812 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside increased by 8.68% to 714 yuan/ton. For Thailand, the quota - within processing cost decreased by 1.37% to 4,027 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside decreased by 1.40% to 5,137 yuan/ton; the quota - within import profit increased by 1.66% to 1,772 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside increased by 7.47% to 662 yuan/ton [29]. 3.3. International Market Fundamentals - **Brazil's Available Sugar Quantity**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugarcane Crushing Volume**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Ethanol Production**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugar Import and Export**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs**: Not elaborated in the provided content.

Group 1 - The article highlights the traditional method of producing brown sugar in Laowu Village, Longhui County, Shaoyang City, Hunan Province, showcasing local craftsmanship and agricultural practices [2][5][6] - Workers are actively involved in the harvesting of sugarcane, indicating a strong agricultural base in the region that supports the sugar production industry [3] - The process of cooling and packaging the brown sugar is emphasized, reflecting the steps taken to ensure product readiness for market distribution [5][6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, influenced by currency fluctuations and production levels in major producing countries [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.08 (-0.54%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +0.40 (+0.09%) [1] - Sugar prices fell to 2-week lows due to increased sugar production in India, with a reported 43% year-on-year increase in production to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) [2] - Sugar prices rallied to 6-week highs last Friday amid concerns about tighter global supplies [4] Group 2: Production Insights - Brazil's sugar production forecast for 2025/26 was raised to 45 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [3] - India's sugar mills are currently crushing cane at a higher rate, with 428 mills operational as of November 30, compared to 376 a year ago [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [6] Group 3: Policy and Export Dynamics - India's food ministry is considering raising the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which could lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills may divert more cane to ethanol production [4] - India has allowed mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar for the 2025/26 season, which is lower than previous estimates [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a decline in the Brazilian real, which has fallen to a 7-week low against the dollar, promoting export sales from Brazil's sugar producers [1] - India's sugar production has surged, with a reported increase of +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) for the October-November period, contributing to lower sugar prices [2] - Brazil's sugar production outlook remains bearish, with Conab raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT, and a reported increase of +8.7% year-on-year in the first half of November [3] Price Movements - Sugar prices reached 6-week highs last Friday due to concerns over tighter global supplies, but recent adjustments in production estimates have contributed to price volatility [4] - India's food ministry's decision to allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, provides some support for sugar prices [5] Production Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [6] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26, indicating a significant increase in supply [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, it is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship will shift from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not show significant improvement. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the general direction remains bearish. However, domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, increasing the difficulty of long - short games and reducing the probability of a trending market. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In November, the international raw sugar price rebounded. As of November 28, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 15.21 cents per pound, up 0.79 cents per pound from the previous month, a 5.48% increase. The raw sugar 3 - 5 month spread was 0.51 cents per pound, up 0.12 cents per pound from the previous month; the London white sugar 3 - 5 month spread was $5.2 per ton, up $2.8 per ton from the previous month; the raw - white spread of the March contract was $100 per ton, up $8 per ton from the previous month. Domestically, the Zhengzhou sugar price declined slightly in November. As of November 28, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5400 yuan per ton, down 83 yuan per ton from the previous month, a 1.51% decrease. The spot price in Guangxi was 5450 yuan per ton, down 230 yuan per ton from the previous month; the basis was 50 yuan per ton, down 147 yuan per ton from the previous month; the 1 - 5 spread was 73 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous month; the out - of - quota spot import profit was 420 yuan per ton, down 439 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry News**: As of December 4, 2025/26, 44 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, 21 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 346,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 175,500 tons. As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugar cane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield at the end of November was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%. Sugar production was 983,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [9]. - **View and Strategy**: As mentioned above, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - foreign spreads, raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios. These charts cover various time periods and contracts from 2021 to 2025, providing a comprehensive view of the spread trends in the sugar market [17][20][25]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [41]. - **Sugar Imports**: Charts display the monthly and annual cumulative imports of sugar, syrup, and premixed powder in China from 20/21 to 2025 [44]. - **National Sales**: Charts present the monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 [49]. - **National Industrial Inventory**: Charts show the monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses [52]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **Brazilian Central - Southern Production**: Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, the cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 [57]. - **Indian Production**: Charts present the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 [62]. - **Thai Production**: Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 [65]. - **Brazilian Shipment Volume**: Charts display the sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil from 2022 to 2025 and the sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 [68].

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Approaching Peak Domestic Sugar Pressing, Prices Under Pressure to Decline [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest phase, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The international sugar price has shown signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Domestically, sugar mills are in the peak pressing season, and the supply and sales pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports and high production costs, the downward price space is expected to be limited [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Wait and see as the Brazilian sugar season is nearing the end, and although the domestic market has increased supply pressure, the downward price space is limited due to high production costs and low current prices [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell put options at low prices [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes**: - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus of 163 tons, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption increasing by only 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The 2024/25 season had a supply - demand gap of 292 tons. Datagro lowered its forecast of the 2025/26 global sugar supply surplus to 100 tons, reduced Brazil's sugar production forecast, and cut India's sugar production forecast by 70 tons. Major importers like China and Indonesia have increased their purchases [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Situation**: - Production is expected to remain high, with the 2025/26 production forecast at 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than in August [9]. - In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased significantly. The cane crushing volume, ethanol production, and sugar production all increased compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil increased by 800,000 tons year - on - year [13]. - Sugar inventory decreased slightly, and exports decreased. In November, sugar and molasses exports were 3.3023 million tons, a 2.59% decrease from the same period last year. Cumulative exports from April to November decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [16]. - **Thai Sugar Situation**: - In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. Exports from January to September 2025 were 4.8685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in production, and exports are expected to increase by 1 million tons [24]. - **Indian Sugar Situation**: - In the 2025/26 season, as of November 30, cumulative cane crushing increased by 45.5% year - on - year, and sugar production increased by 49.81% year - on - year. The average national sugar production cost has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram [32]. - **Domestic Sugar Situation**: - Sugar mills are gradually starting production. As of November 30, 35 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, with a decrease in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year. In Yunnan, 10 sugar mills have started production, with an increase in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year [35]. - Import profits are relatively high [36]. - In October 2025, sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October, sugar imports were 3.9054 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year increase. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased [43]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Includes data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, inventory; Indian and Thai sugar production; and domestic sugar production, imports, etc., presented in various charts and figures [45][56][62]