Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trend and Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the crude oil 2509 contract are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a slight upward bias respectively, with an overall view of running strongly [1]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed up 2.03% at 507 yuan/barrel on the overnight session of Monday, and the 2508 contract is expected to maintain an oscillation with a slight upward bias on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has re - emerged due to Israel's air strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, leading to a rebound in geopolitical premium and an increase in the confidence of oil market bulls after a previous significant decline [5]. - The demand factor of crude oil has come into play with the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. - Market sentiment has been repaired as Trump extended the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, and the bullish atmosphere has supported the sharp rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2509 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. - Due to the Israeli air strikes on Lebanese Hezbollah, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has emerged again. After a sharp decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. Against the backdrop of the divergence between bulls and bears, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price slightly down 0.70% to 497.6 yuan/barrel. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]. - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the closing price of the day's daytime session to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and weak, an increase of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and strong, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - The concepts of oscillatory and strong/weak only apply to the intraday view, not to the short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.2 Crude Oil (SC) Market Analysis - The intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is weak operation [5]. - The core logic is the combination of geopolitical risks, the rebound of bullish confidence, and the peak oil - using season, leading to the oscillatory and weak trend of the crude oil futures contract [5].

Group 1 - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils dated July 7, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The short - term is defined as within a week, and the medium - term is from two weeks to one month, based on the previous day's night - session closing price [7] Group 3 - For the soybean meal (M) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic involves import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operating rhythm, and stocking demand. With the release of imported soybean arrival pressure, domestic soybean supply is abundant. Oil mill soybean meal inventory has risen for 8 consecutive weeks. Downstream's expectation of future supply tightening supports procurement demand, and the short - term futures price may be oscillating bullish, affected by external markets and domestic supply [6][7] - For the soybean oil (Y) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic includes US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. US soybean oil inventory decline and new tax bill boost demand, and the domestic market is in a balanced state between inventory pressure and cost support, with short - term prices likely to be oscillating bullish [7][8] - For the palm oil (P) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic involves biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. Malaysian palm oil production decline and strong exports may lead to inventory decrease, and domestic inventory has risen for 5 consecutive weeks, with prices following the international market and short - term volatility increasing [7][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are all generally positive, with an "oscillatingly strong" reference view for the short - term [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The growth of US soybean oil's bio - fuel demand continues to boost US soybean crushing consumption. However, good US crop weather and the expectation of a Brazilian harvest limit the upside of US soybean futures prices. The market focus will shift to the yield adjustment due to weather disturbances from July to August. The trading logic of the soybean meal market revolves around import costs, and short - term soybean meal futures prices may rebound following US soybean futures prices [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil has seen a strong rebound. The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil lead to a stronger expectation of a decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory in June. The rising Malaysian palm oil prices support domestic palm oil futures prices. With continuous inflow of market funds, the short - term oscillatingly strong trend of palm oil futures prices is expected to continue [8]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [7]. - **Core Logic**: The influencing factors include US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7].

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，甲醇震荡偏强 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：在地缘风险快速降温以后，甲醇期货溢价陆续回吐。随着国内甲醇产能持续释放，周度 产量和周度开工率显著回升，内部供应压力有增无减。叠加海外船货不断到港，外部供应预期逐渐 增大，港口迎来累库周期，华东和华 ...

7月2日，国内商品多数上涨，多晶硅大涨7%，触及涨停并维持至收盘，玻璃涨超6%，工业硅、氧化铝涨超4%，硅铁、生猪、碳酸锂、烧碱、焦煤、焦炭、 纯碱涨超3%，螺纹、热卷、锰硅涨超2%，红枣、PVC、尿素、铁矿石、菜油、棕榈油、原木、甲醇、沪胶等涨超1%；下跌品种跌幅均不足1%。 中证商品期货价格指数日内走势图（来源：新华财经专业终端） 同样产能过剩的玻璃今日也在市场预期下显著走强。市场消息显示，面对"内卷式"竞争加剧和需求减弱的背景，多数光伏玻璃企业已计划自7月起主动减 产，预计减产规模将达到30%。光伏玻璃的减产也对玻璃盘面形成了一定的支撑。但当前终端需求持续下滑而库存虽然开始去化但仍旧处在高位，因此展望 后市，西南期货认为，当前多数深加工企业仍然刚需维持，实际供需矛盾不突出，市场情绪偏淡，盘面已然历史绝对低位，短时或有多头情绪发酵，但预计 持续性一般。 鸡蛋反弹依然乏力 今日下跌品种较少，且跌幅均不足1%。鸡蛋近期低位企稳，但反弹力度仍显不足。目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压力较大，鸡蛋供应 比较充足。同时，受梅雨季节影响，高温高湿气候下鸡蛋存储成本增加，下游经销商采购谨慎，蛋价持续处于同期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The rubber and synthetic rubber markets are expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a focus on weak operation [1][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - For both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2509 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2508, the short - term and mid - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", with a reference view of "weak operation" [1] 2. Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Core logic: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal effect of common positive factors for energy - chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market re - dominate. The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure, while downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. On Monday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures closed down 0.46% to 13,945 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Tuesday [5] 3. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Core logic: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal effect of common positive factors for energy - chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the synthetic rubber market re - dominate. The operating loads of some private cis - butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up the output and capacity utilization rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber last week. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. On Monday night, the 2508 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures closed down 0.22% to 11,245 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Tuesday [7]

策略参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 核心逻辑：目前豆粕交易逻辑并未改变，来自于原料大豆进口成本的变化，令豆粕期价跟随外盘美豆波动 节奏。昨夜美国农业部公布了备受瞩目的种植面积报告和库存报告。报告显示， 6 月 1 日美国大豆库存总 量高于市场预期，给近月美豆合约带来压力。实际大豆种植面积数据对远月美豆合约偏利多。受此影响， 国内远期豆类合约获得支撑，豆粕期价止跌回稳后，反弹行情持续。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-06-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着地缘因素弱化，能化商品期货的共性利多边际效应递减，胶市供需结 ...