Report Information - Report Title: Stock Market Adjustment, Bond Market Rebound - Report Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Yang - Contact: liuyang18036@greendh.com - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3063825 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0016580 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was to rise first and then fall. There is an obvious seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. The yield curve of Treasury bond cash bonds has changed little. The manufacturing PMI in August continued to be below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand being slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index increased slightly. The export of South Korea in August showed a certain growth. The wholesale price of agricultural products continued to rise, and the inflation pressure was limited in the short term. If the stock market continues to be strong, it may suppress the bond market; if the stock index adjusts, it will be beneficial to bond bulls [5][7][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - The main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. On Monday, they refused to fall and rebounded to close a medium - positive line. On Tuesday, there was a small - scale fluctuation adjustment. On Wednesday, they attacked again and closed a medium - positive line. On Thursday, they rose and then fell slightly. On Friday, they fell sharply. For the whole week, the 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.18%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% [5] Stock - Bond Seesaw - The Wind All - A Index hit a new high on Monday this week, then fell for three consecutive days from Tuesday to Thursday, and rebounded sharply on Friday. Although the Treasury bond futures showed independence on some single days, the overall stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious [7] Changes in the Yield Curve of Treasury Bond Cash Bonds at Maturity - As of September 5, compared with August 29, the 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1 BP to 1.41%, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield fell 2 BP to 1.61%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 1 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield fell 3 BP to 2.11% [9] Manufacturing PMI in August - The official manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. Large - scale enterprises continued to expand in the boom range, medium - sized enterprises' prosperity declined, and small - scale enterprises hovered at a low level. The PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry and high - tech manufacturing industry increased. The procurement volume index increased, indicating that corporate procurement activities accelerated [12] Production and Demand in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The production index in August was 50.8%, showing continuous expansion. The new order index was 49.5%, indicating that market demand was still slightly weak. Industries such as medicine and computer communication electronics had rapid production and demand release, while industries such as textile and clothing and chemical raw materials had insufficient production and demand [14] New Export Orders and Import Index in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The new export order index in August was 47.2%, and the import index was 48.0%. The new export order index changed little compared with July. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm, the two sides agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, and China's export growth in August might be acceptable [17] Price Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The purchase price index of major raw materials in August was 53.3%, and the ex - factory price index was 49.1%. The purchase price index of raw materials continued to be in the expansion range, and the expansion amplitude increased in August. The prices of some industries rose, while those of some industries were below the critical point. The average value of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index in August was basically the same as that in July [19] Inventory Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The raw material inventory index in August was 48.0%, and the finished - product inventory index was 46.8%. The finished - product inventory index fell to a relatively low level again. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits was 4.8%, and the year - on - year growth of finished - product inventory was 2.3%. Manufacturing enterprises were cautious about increasing inventory [22] Business Expectation Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The employment index in August was 47.9%, hovering at a relatively low level. The business activity expectation index was 53.7%, showing a slight rebound in the expectation of future prosperity [24] Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index in August - The non - manufacturing business activity index in August was 50.3%. The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, and the service industry business activity index was 50.5%. Some industries such as capital market services and transportation were in a high - level boom range, while industries such as retail and real estate had weak prosperity [26] Construction Industry Indexes in August - The new order index in August was 40.6%, and the employment index was 43.6%. The business activity expectation index was 51.7%. Affected by weather conditions, the prosperity of the construction industry slowed down [29] Service Industry Indexes in August - The new order index in August was 47.7%, and the employment index was 45.9%. The business activity expectation index was 57.0%, showing a slight upward trend [31] South Korea's Exports in August - South Korea's exports increased by 1.3% year - on - year in August. The daily average export amount calculated by working days increased by 5.8% year - on - year. The semiconductor export amount reached a record high, and the automobile export also showed strong momentum [34] Agricultural Product Price Index - The Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index on September 5 was 117.93, higher than that on August 31 but significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating that the price continued to rise but was still lower than last year [37] Nanhua Industrial Products Index - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index continued to decline after hitting a closing high on July 25. It declined slightly in August and fluctuated narrowly this week, indicating limited short - term inflation pressure [39] Capital Interest Rates - After the end of the month, the capital interest rates fell to a low level this week. The weighted average of DR001 was between 1.31% - 1.32%, and the weighted average of DR007 was around 1.44%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was around 1.66%. The central bank carried out a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) repurchase operation on Friday, which fully offset the due amount [41] Market Logic and Trading Strategies - The manufacturing PMI in August continued to be below the boom - bust line, with economic downward pressure still obvious. The service industry business activity index expanded moderately. The strong rebound of the Wind All - A Index on Friday corresponded to the unilateral decline of Treasury bond futures. If the stock market continues to be strong, it may suppress the bond market; if the stock index adjusts, it will be beneficial to bond bulls. The trading - type investment should conduct band operations [44][45]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is 49.40%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.80%, while the new orders index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.50%[1] - The new export orders index recorded 47.20%, up by 0.1 percentage points, and the import index rose to 48.00%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points[1][2] Price Trends - The raw material purchase price index increased by 1.8 percentage points to 53.30%, marking three consecutive months of rise[2] - The factory price index rose by 0.8 percentage points to 49.10%, also showing a three-month upward trend[2] - The price gap between raw material purchases and factory prices increased by 1.00 percentage point to 4.20 percentage points[2] Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for August is 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating accelerated expansion[2] - The service sector PMI reached 50.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, with capital market services showing strong growth[2][3] - The construction sector PMI fell to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, affected by adverse weather conditions[2][3] Investment Recommendations - The economic weak recovery pattern continues, with manufacturing supply PMI above the critical point for four consecutive months[3] - Focus on high-rated short-duration credit bonds while controlling low-rated risks in credit bonds[3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a "bull steep" trend, with long-end bonds offering better value[3]

Economic Indicators - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI output indices were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5%, respectively, showing a slight month-on-month increase[15] - The manufacturing production index has remained in the expansion zone for several months, with high-tech manufacturing PMI at 51.9% and equipment manufacturing PMI at 50.5%[1] Demand and Supply - New orders and new export orders indices have slightly increased, indicating a stabilization in domestic and international market demand[2] - The price index has been rising, with major raw material purchase prices and factory prices improving, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing market order[2] Industrial Profitability - From January to July 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 40,203.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, but the decline is narrowing[2] - Manufacturing profits grew by 4.8%, with high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 18.9% in July, indicating strong support from new economic drivers[2] Price Levels - In July, the CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while the core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a continuous recovery in domestic demand[3] - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, but the decline is showing signs of narrowing, indicating an improvement in market supply-demand structure[3] Future Outlook - The overall economic outlook remains stable, with new economic drivers such as high-tech manufacturing and consumption upgrades becoming significant growth engines[3] - Despite uncertainties in the external environment, the continuous and stable macroeconomic policies are expected to support economic structure optimization and high-quality development[4]

Group 1 - In August, U.S. job growth significantly slowed, with only 54,000 jobs added, below the market expectation of 68,000 and a sharp decline from the revised 104,000 in July [1][3] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with reduced job vacancies and a slowdown in wage growth, indicating a shift towards a more relaxed supply-demand relationship in the labor market [1][5] - The ADP report indicates that while overall hiring has slowed, sectors like leisure, hospitality, and construction continue to see growth [3][5] Group 2 - The manufacturing, transportation, and education sectors experienced negative job growth in August, highlighting a broader trend of hiring deceleration across both goods-producing and service sectors [5][7] - The Challenger report shows that hiring intentions have dropped to the lowest level since 2009, while layoffs have increased significantly, reflecting a cautious approach from employers [5][7] - Market analysts agree that the slight cooling of the labor market is a fact, leading to a consensus that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting [5][7] Group 3 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a critical reference for the Federal Reserve's decision, with expectations of a 75,000 increase in non-farm jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate [7] - Following the ADP data release, U.S. stock futures showed minimal volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down approximately 0.25%, and the dollar index remaining stable around 98.25 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. federal government has significantly increased the tariff costs borne by residents of Colorado, leading to higher prices in daily consumption and severe impacts on key industries in the state [1] Industry Impact - The tariff costs for Colorado residents have surged to seven times higher than a year ago, rising from 3% to 21% [1] - The industries most affected by the tariff policies include agriculture, construction, and aerospace [1] - The construction industry has seen increased prices for essential materials such as lumber, steel, aluminum, and copper due to tariffs, making new homes more expensive in Colorado [1] - There is a warning that the tariff costs for residents are expected to continue rising significantly in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The construction industry is a pillar of the national economy and plays a significant role in local economic growth, employment stability, and fiscal revenue enhancement. The Shandong provincial government has introduced a work plan to promote high-quality development in the construction sector to support economic stability [1][3]. Group 1: Key Measures - The work plan includes 6 areas and 13 specific measures aimed at improving the construction industry's quality and efficiency, following recent policy initiatives for service industry development [1][3]. - The plan addresses urgent issues such as payment delays and financing challenges while focusing on long-term competitiveness and brand building [3]. Group 2: Financial Support and Project Management - Shandong aims to stabilize construction investment by implementing checklist management for key projects, enhancing resource and financial support, and accelerating project initiation and construction progress [3]. - To alleviate payment delays, the government will intensify efforts to clear outstanding payments and regulate payment practices among government units and state-owned enterprises [3]. Group 3: Financing Solutions - The province plans to increase financial support through new loans, optimized interest rates, and project guarantees, while also enhancing connections between banks and enterprises to direct resources toward quality projects [3]. - Strengthening industry monitoring and accurate data collection on project output will provide a scientific basis for policy formulation [3]. Group 4: Support for Private Enterprises - Construction enterprises will be included in special actions to support private businesses, facilitating policy benefits and promoting collaborative development through order mutual guarantees and capacity sharing [4]. - The promotion of the "Qilu Construction" brand and typical case studies aims to create a favorable development environment and ensure effective policy implementation through enhanced inter-departmental coordination [4].

Group 1 - Shandong Province has introduced a comprehensive set of policies to stabilize the economy, including a third batch of policy measures focusing on service, construction, and cultural tourism sectors [2][3] - An additional 1 billion yuan will be allocated to support the development of the service industry, building on the existing 2 billion yuan provincial service industry development guidance fund [2][3] - The third batch of policy measures includes 16 initiatives aimed at enhancing service industry support, ensuring project construction, and providing assistance to enterprises facing difficulties [2][3] Group 2 - The service industry plays a crucial role in the overall economic growth of Shandong, prompting the government to develop targeted measures for high-quality service industry development, including 42 specific initiatives [3] - Key sectors such as wholesale and retail, transportation, finance, and real estate will receive focused strategies to unlock service consumption potential and improve the quality of service industry development [3] - The government aims to enhance the structure and efficiency of the service industry by promoting high-end productive services like industrial internet and technology services [3] Group 3 - The "Work Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of the Construction Industry" includes 13 specific measures addressing issues like clearing overdue payments and supporting private construction enterprises [4] - The plan emphasizes the importance of ensuring timely payment of debts to construction companies and facilitating their participation in new urban infrastructure projects [4] - Regular project opportunity lists will be published to provide transparency regarding investment scales and qualification requirements for private construction enterprises [4] Group 4 - The "Work Plan for Expanding Cultural and Tourism Consumption" outlines 20 measures focusing on digital tourism, performance arts, inbound tourism, and night economy [5] - New cultural and tourism products and experiences will be introduced, such as the "Good Guest Shandong" tourism credit card and upgraded digital services [5] - Innovative models like the "ticket root economy" will be strengthened, offering discounts on tourism services linked to event tickets, enhancing the overall consumer experience [5]

Group 1 - *ST Tianmao has submitted an application to voluntarily terminate its listing to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] - Zhongwei Company has recently launched six new semiconductor equipment products [2] Group 2 - Jingxing Paper has experienced no significant changes in its operating environment, maintaining a consecutive increase in stock performance [3] - Tongrun Equipment has also reported no major changes in its operating environment, with a consecutive increase in stock performance [3] - Anzheng Fashion has raised concerns about potential irrational speculation in its stock price, following a consecutive increase [3] - Eurasia Group's stock may also be subject to irrational speculation, as indicated by its consecutive increase [3] - Jiangsu Shuntian will change its stock abbreviation to "Suhao Fashion" starting September 10 [3] - Zhonghuan Hailu has terminated plans for a change in company control and will resume trading on September 5 [3] - Jingyi Co., Ltd. may face a change in control due to potential judicial auction of shares held by its controlling shareholder [3] - Wencan Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary Tianjin Xiongbang experienced a fire incident, but no casualties were reported [3] - Foton Motor's August sales reached 51,375 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.09% [3] - Yutong Bus reported August sales of 4,260 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.78% [3] Group 3 - Guoguang Chain's actual controller plans to reduce their stake in the company by no more than 2.99% [3] - Jimin Health's actual controller and concerted parties plan to reduce their stake by no more than 3% [3] - Gongdong Medical's actual controller and concerted parties intend to reduce their stake by no more than 3% [3] - Jiahe Meikang's Hongyun Jiukang plans to reduce its stake in the company by no more than 1% [3] Group 4 - Southeast Network Frame has won a bid for a project worth 1.686 billion yuan for the comprehensive development of Wucun in Pujiang Street [3] - Ningbo Construction's subsidiary has collectively won bids for construction projects totaling 1.117 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - Bishkek contributes 44.6% of the national GDP, indicating its significant role in the country's economy [1] Economic Performance - The industrial output of Bishkek reached 61.3 billion som (approximately 700 million USD) [1] - Fixed asset investments totaled 29.45 billion som (approximately 340 million USD) [1] - The construction sector's total output increased by 1.6 times [1] - The average nominal wage in the city reached 53,139 som (approximately 610 USD), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.7% [1] - A total of 21,181 new jobs were created during the period [1] Budgetary Performance - Local budget revenue amounted to 12.7 billion som (approximately 150 million USD), with tax revenue contributing 9.4 billion som (approximately 110 million USD) [1] - Tax revenue exceeded the planned target by 7.7% and showed a year-on-year growth of 22.4% [1] - Budget expenditures reached 7.6 billion som (approximately 87 million USD), marking a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [1] Investment Projects - The city government actively promoted investment, successfully implementing large projects such as a waste-to-energy project (95 million USD) and a comprehensive building project at the Ak-Kula racetrack site (300 million USD) [1]

Employment Data - The latest ADP report indicates an addition of +54K new private-sector jobs in August, missing expectations by 20K [1] - The four-month average for private-sector job growth is +55K, a significant decline from the previous average of +102K [2] - Large corporations added only +18K jobs, while medium-sized companies contributed +25K and small firms added +12K [3] Industry Performance - The Leisure/Hospitality sector saw the highest job growth with +50K new jobs, followed by Construction at +16K and Professional/Business Services at +15K [4] - The Trade/Transportation/Utilities sector experienced the largest decline with -17K jobs, and Education/Healthcare lost -12K jobs [4][5] Wage Trends - Job Stayers experienced an average earnings gain of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a +7.1% increase, indicating a narrowing wage gap [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims rose to +237K, exceeding expectations and marking the highest monthly total since June [7] - Continuing Jobless Claims decreased to 1.940 million, remaining below the critical 2 million mark for 13 consecutive weeks [8] Productivity and Labor Costs - Q2 Productivity increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of +3.3%, the strongest quarterly productivity since Q3 2024 [9] - Unit Labor Costs for the quarter were lower than expected at +1.0%, suggesting a favorable economic environment [9] Trade Deficit - The U.S. Trade Deficit widened to -$78.3 billion in July, a significant increase from the previous month's revised figure of -$59.1 billion [10]