今年，外贸在压力中开局，走出一条清晰的"上扬线"。7月17日，记者从省政府新闻办举行的新闻发布 会上获悉，上半年，全省货物贸易进出口总值4585.4亿元，同比增长15.2%。 "进出口规模创历史同期新高。"合肥海关副关长姜开源介绍，外贸顶住压力、保持动力、展现活力。今 年上半年，我省货物贸易进出口、出口、进口均实现了两位数增长。其中，出口3098.5亿元，同比增长 15.4%；进口1486.9亿元，同比增长14.7%。从排位上看，进出口总值居全国第9位、中部第1位，进出口 增速居全国第6位、长三角第1位。从季度走势看，二季度进出口同比增长16.8%，比一季度加快3.5个百 分点，连续10个季度保持同比增长。 出口动能持续增强，内需扩大带动进口稳步增长。"上半年，全省出口机电产品2229.1亿元，同比增长 18.5%，占全省出口总值的71.9%。其中，出口汽车含底盘46.1万辆，出口量继续保持全国第1位；出 口'新三样'产品371.3亿元，同比增长67.8%。"姜开源介绍，随着"两重""两新"政策持续发力，我省进口 连续3个月保持增长。上半年，全省进口机电产品563.3亿元，同比增长31.4%，占全省进口总值的 ...

Group 1: Export Performance - June export growth rate was 5.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding the Wind consensus forecast by 2.7 percentage points[3] - Cumulative export growth for the first half of the year was 5.9%, slightly higher than last year's full-year growth of 5.8%[3] - Trade surplus for the first half of the year reached $585.95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.52%, surpassing last year's growth of 20.7%[3] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 16.1%, but the decline narrowed by 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, with U.S. exports accounting for 12% of total exports[4] - Exports to ASEAN countries maintained high growth at 16.9%, with Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines showing growth rates of 23.8%, 27.9%, and 10.2% respectively[4] - Exports to the EU grew by 7.6%, down 4.4 percentage points from the previous month, with Germany's export growth slowing to 3.5%[4] Group 3: Product-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive product exports showed improvement, with declines narrowing to -7.1% for bags, -1.6% for textiles, and -4.0% for footwear[5] - Mechanical and high-tech product exports grew by 8.2% and 6.9% respectively, with integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships showing high growth rates of 24.2%, 23.1%, and 23.6%[5] - The contribution of mechanical products to export growth was 4.8 percentage points, while high-tech products contributed 1.6 percentage points[5] Group 4: Import Trends - Import growth returned to positive territory at 1.1%, a significant rebound of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Mechanical and high-tech products were the main drivers of import growth, with rates of 6.4% and 10.0% respectively[6] - Energy product imports faced declines, with coal, crude oil, and natural gas showing decreases of -44.7%, -15.0%, and -5.9% respectively due to falling prices[6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to continue, supported by tariff exemptions and ongoing "export grabbing" strategies[7] - However, medium to long-term pressures may build due to the expiration of tariff exemptions and potential demand exhaustion[7] - Risks include unexpected changes in overseas policies and slower-than-expected economic recovery abroad[8]

Core Viewpoint - The export performance of China's electromechanical industry has shown remarkable resilience despite the challenging external trade environment, with a total export value of 7.8 trillion yuan, representing a growth of 9.5% and accounting for 60% of total exports in the first half of 2025 [4][6][23] Group 1: Export Performance - The total import and export volume reached 21 trillion yuan, a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [1] - The electromechanical industry saw an export growth of 9.5%, with significant contributions from high-end equipment and new production capabilities [1][4] - Exports of high-end medical devices and equipment have increased, with medical instruments and devices growing by 5.9% in the first half of the year [11][15] Group 2: Industry Resilience - The electromechanical industry has demonstrated strong resilience, with various sectors, particularly emerging industries like automotive and integrated circuits, driving growth [4][6] - Despite a direct decline in exports to the US, exports to ASEAN and the EU have increased, showcasing the industry's adaptability [6][16] - The robust performance is attributed to a complete industrial chain and significant advantages in industrial clusters, making Chinese electromechanical products increasingly preferred in the global market [6][23] Group 3: Technological Advancements - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2%, indicating a shift towards more advanced manufacturing capabilities [16][23] - The industrial robot sector has seen a remarkable increase in exports, with a 61.5% growth in the first half of the year, highlighting the industry's innovation [18][19] - The emergence of AI-enabled products and service robots is becoming a new growth point for the electromechanical industry [21][23] Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry is encouraged to continue focusing on technological innovation, optimizing the supply chain, and receiving policy support to navigate the uncertain external environment [23] - The recent challenges posed by trade protectionism, such as the EU's procurement ban, highlight the need for Chinese companies to enhance their competitiveness in international markets [15][23]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong's economy demonstrated resilience and growth in the first half of the year, achieving a GDP of 68,725.40 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2% despite global economic challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - Guangdong's GDP growth of 4.2% includes contributions from various sectors: primary industry increased by 4.2% to 2,258.86 billion yuan, secondary industry grew by 3.4% to 25,978.86 billion yuan, and tertiary industry rose by 4.6% to 40,487.69 billion yuan [2][3]. - The province's foreign trade reached 4.55 trillion yuan, marking a 4% increase compared to the previous year, outpacing the national growth rate by 1.1 percentage points [3]. Foreign Trade Dynamics - Guangdong's foreign trade structure is diversifying, with exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative continuing to grow, indicating a broader international engagement [3][4]. - The export of electromechanical products, which account for over 60% of total exports, increased by 7.2%, with new export drivers like drones and other innovative products seeing growth rates close to 30% [3][4]. Consumer Market Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods in Guangdong rose by 3.5% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in consumption driven by diverse consumer experiences and innovative policies [4]. Manufacturing Sector Transformation - The industrial output value for large-scale industries grew by 4.0%, with advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 5.9% and 6.0%, respectively [5][6]. - Key high-tech products such as new energy vehicles and industrial robots saw significant production increases, with growth rates of 42.2% and 34.0%, respectively [6]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Guangdong decreased by 9.7%, with a notable decline in real estate development investment by 16.3%, while investments in industrial technology upgrades increased [6]. Future Outlook - The economic outlook for the second half of the year remains positive, with expectations for continued growth driven by industrial upgrades and enhanced supply chain resilience [7][8]. - The government emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach to investment, consumption, and exports to sustain economic momentum [7].

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong's foreign trade has achieved record growth in the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in the export of "new three samples" products by 28.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guangdong's total goods trade import and export reached 4.55 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4%, surpassing the national growth rate by 1.1% [1]. - The export value was 2.89 trillion RMB, growing by 1.1%, while imports reached 1.66 trillion RMB, increasing by 9.5% [1]. - Guangdong's foreign trade accounted for 20.9% of the national total, contributing 28% to the national foreign trade growth [1]. Group 2: Role of Enterprises - There are 130,000 foreign trade enterprises in Guangdong, an increase of 7.6%, with private enterprises making up 110,000 of these, growing by 8.6% [2]. - The total import and export value of private enterprises reached 2.92 trillion RMB, accounting for 64.2% of the province's total foreign trade [2]. Group 3: Export Product Composition - The export of electromechanical products was 1.96 trillion RMB, a growth of 7.2%, representing 67.8% of the total export value [2]. - High-tech product exports reached 505.43 billion RMB, increasing by 13.3%, with significant growth in machine tools and drones at 18.7% and 29.2%, respectively [2]. Group 4: Import Trends - Guangdong's imports of electromechanical products surged by 19.3% to 1.16 trillion RMB, making up 70.1% of total imports [5][6]. - Key components such as central processing units, aircraft parts, and integrated circuits saw increases of 322.5%, 27.5%, and 14.3%, respectively [5]. Group 5: Industrial Upgrades - The province is focusing on industrial transformation, with significant demand for high-end manufacturing equipment reflected in the import statistics [5][6]. - Imports of aerospace equipment and semiconductor manufacturing equipment grew by 63.8% and 47%, respectively, indicating a shift towards advanced manufacturing capabilities [6].

Core Insights - Guangdong's import and export trade reached 4.55 trillion yuan in the first half of 2023, marking a 4% year-on-year increase, which is 1.1 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Imports totaled 1.66 trillion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 9.5%, setting a historical high for the same period [1] Group 1: Import Growth Drivers - The increase in imports is attributed to rising demand and China's ongoing efforts to expand openness, providing more development opportunities globally [2] - Guangdong's industrial production has shown stable growth, leading to a 19.3% increase in the import of electromechanical products, which accounted for over 70% of total imports [2] - Key components such as central processing units, aircraft parts, and integrated circuits saw import growth rates of 322.5%, 27.5%, and 14.3% respectively [2] Group 2: High-End Manufacturing Demand - The steady advancement of industrial upgrades has led to a noticeable increase in demand for high-end manufacturing equipment [2] - Imports of aerospace equipment and marine engineering equipment grew by 63.8% and 31.5% respectively, while semiconductor manufacturing equipment, machine tools, and light industrial machinery saw increases of 47%, 14.6%, and 12.7% [2] Group 3: Consumer Goods Import Surge - Domestic demand has been further released, accelerating the import of consumer goods, which rose by 3.3% to 134.92 billion yuan [3] - Notable increases in imports include passenger cars (48.1%), edible oil (39.5%), aquatic products (33.4%), dairy products (20.9%), and beauty products (8.9%) [3] Group 4: Trade Partnerships and Initiatives - Guangdong's imports from Taiwan, ASEAN, South Korea, Japan, and the EU increased by 27.4%, 6.3%, 14.1%, 12.4%, and 13.1% respectively [3] - Imports from Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 643.78 billion yuan, growing by 5.7% and accounting for 38.8% of total imports [3] - The implementation of zero-tariff treatment for all products from least developed countries has led to a 16.1% increase in imports from these nations [3] Group 5: Policy Measures to Enhance Imports - Guangdong customs have implemented various measures to promote import development, including support for the food processing industry and expanding inspection ranges for bulk commodities [4] - The application of cross-border fast customs clearance reforms aims to facilitate the import of key intermediate goods and enhance the cross-border e-commerce supply chain [4] - The ongoing construction of a unified national market is expected to further enhance the flow of goods and resources, indicating significant growth potential for imports in Guangdong [4]

Core Insights - Jiangsu Province's total import and export value reached 2.81 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a 5.2% increase compared to the same period last year, surpassing the national growth rate of 2.3% and accounting for 12.9% of China's total import and export value [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - Exports amounted to 1.88 trillion yuan, growing by 9.4%, while imports were 933.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.4% [1] - The proportion of processing trade increased, with processing trade imports and exports totaling 883.04 billion yuan, a growth of 6.1%, accounting for 31.4% of the total trade value, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [1] Group 2: Contribution by Enterprises - Foreign-invested enterprises contributed significantly, with imports and exports totaling 1.32 trillion yuan, a growth of 5.8%, contributing 2.7 percentage points to the overall growth, representing 46.9% of the total trade value [1] - Private enterprises had imports and exports of 1.25 trillion yuan, growing by 2.5%, contributing 1.2 percentage points to the overall growth, accounting for 44.5% of the total [1] - State-owned enterprises saw a notable increase in trade, with imports and exports reaching 241.35 billion yuan, a growth of 16.8% [1] Group 3: Regional Trade Dynamics - Jiangsu's trade with countries involved in the "Belt and Road" initiative reached 1.39 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.5%, contributing 4.5 percentage points to the overall growth, and accounting for 49.5% of the total trade value, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Trade with ASEAN countries was particularly strong, reaching 510 billion yuan, a growth of 21.8%, while trade with the EU was 395.2 billion yuan, growing by 2.8% [2] Group 4: Product Categories - Mechanical and electrical products were the main drivers of export growth, with exports totaling 1.3 trillion yuan, a growth of 10.4% [2] - Key exports included computers and components (116.42 billion yuan, up 0.3%), electrical equipment (113.88 billion yuan, up 19%), and ships (63.82 billion yuan, up 27.6%) [2] - Imports of mechanical and electrical products also grew, totaling 532.7 billion yuan, a growth of 3%, with significant increases in flat panel display modules and computer components [2]

Core Insights - The global reliance on China has increased despite a complex international environment, indicating a trend of deeper integration rather than decoupling [1][2] - China's manufacturing value added accounts for over 30% of the global total, maintaining the largest scale for 15 consecutive years, with projections suggesting it could reach 45% by 2030 [1] - The growth of foreign trade is fundamentally linked to a country's productivity, with China's increasing share in global trade reflecting a consensus on its role in global division of labor [1] Trade Performance - In 2021, China's total goods trade reached 39.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, with exports and imports growing by 21.2% and 21.5% respectively [3] - By 2022, the total goods trade value surpassed 40 trillion yuan, reaching 42.07 trillion yuan, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [3] - In 2023, the trade value was 41.76 trillion yuan, showing a modest growth of 0.2%, while projections for 2024 indicate a rise to 43.85 trillion yuan, a 5% increase [3] Product Structure and Innovation - The export of mechanical and electrical products has strengthened, with 2021 exports reaching 12.83 trillion yuan, accounting for 59% of total exports [7] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2% in 2025, with significant increases in high-end machinery and instruments [7] - The shift from OEM to ODM and customized products reflects an upgrade in China's export product structure, enhancing design and brand capabilities [6][7] Trade Partners and Market Diversification - China has seen a decline in trade with the U.S. while increasing trade with non-U.S. regions, with ASEAN remaining the largest trading partner [11] - The trade with "Belt and Road" countries has outpaced overall growth, accounting for 51.8% of total trade in the first half of the year [11] - The diversification of international markets has made China's trade more resilient amid uncertainties [11] E-commerce and Digital Trade - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 1.32 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 5.7% [9] - The share of cross-border e-commerce in total foreign trade has increased from less than 1% in 2015 to 6.2% in 2024, indicating a significant trend towards digital trade [9][10] Future Outlook - Despite challenges from geopolitical tensions and a slowing global economy, China's complete and high-density industrial chain is expected to maintain its competitive edge for at least the next decade [12] - The focus on enhancing product quality and value-added services is crucial for sustaining international competitiveness [13] - The transition from a production-based economy to a consumption-driven one will require addressing internal challenges and finding new growth points [13]

Export and Import Performance - In the first half of the year, China's exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year in USD terms, while imports declined by 3.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of $585.96 billion[2] - In June, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with imports turning positive at a growth rate of 1.1%, leading to a trade surplus of $114.77 billion[2] - ASEAN and EU continued to support China's export growth, contributing 2.7 and 1.1 percentage points to the June export growth, respectively[2] Product-Specific Insights - Electrical and mechanical products maintained export advantages, with integrated circuits and general machinery growing by 18.9% and 7.0% year-on-year, respectively[4] - Some light industrial products saw improvements in export prices, with declines in prices for household ceramics and footwear narrowing by 7.0 and 1.8 percentage points, respectively[4] - The automotive sector continued to show positive growth despite high export baselines in recent years[4] Economic Risks - There is an increasing risk of economic recession in Europe and the US, alongside a complex international situation that could impact trade dynamics[3]

Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, exceeding the annual growth target of around 5% [1] - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, highlighting its role as the main driver of economic growth [1][2] Consumption Recovery - The recovery in consumption is driven by three main factors: enhanced fiscal policies, structural upgrades in consumption, and increased income levels [2] - Fiscal policies, including trade-in programs, have significantly boosted sales, with related goods sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [2] - The actual per capita disposable income of residents grew by 5.4%, with rural income growth (6.2%) outpacing urban income growth (4.7%), stimulating consumption in lower-tier markets [2] Foreign Trade Resilience - China's foreign trade demonstrated strong resilience, with total goods import and export reaching 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [2][3] - The contribution of net exports of goods and services to economic growth was 31.2% [2] Trade Highlights - Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 9.5%, accounting for 60% of total exports, while "new three samples" products saw a growth of 12.7% [3] - The proportion of trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries rose to 51.8%, with significant growth in trade with Africa and Central Asia [3] New Quality Productivity - The core industries of the digital economy accounted for about 10% of GDP, indicating a shift towards new quality productivity [3] - R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP is close to 2.7%, surpassing the EU average and nearing the OECD average [3] Overall Economic Outlook - The 5.3% economic growth reflects solid consumer foundations, resilient foreign trade, and the emergence of new quality productivity [4] - There is ample policy reserve and space to ensure stable economic growth in response to external uncertainties [4]