Core Insights - Bubble Mart (09992.HK) launched multiple new figurines on October 23, celebrating its 15th anniversary with the "Celebrate This Moment" series, featuring 15 regular and 1 hidden variant, with significant price increases observed for certain models [1][2] - The premium pricing for the new series is lower compared to previous successful launches, indicating a potential decline in market enthusiasm for the brand's latest offerings [1][2] - The company's stock has seen a significant decline, dropping nearly 30% since September, with a notable drop of almost 10% on October 23, marking the largest decline in six months [2][3] Product Launch and Performance - The "Celebrate This Moment" series includes popular characters like MOLLY, with the hidden variant "Sweetheart Party" seeing a price increase from 69 yuan to 519 yuan, a 6.5x premium [1] - Other regular models such as "Childlike Innocence," "Blow the Horn," and "Under the Curtain" also performed well, with premiums of 1.8x, 1.9x, and 1.3x respectively [1] - Previous successful series like "WHY SO SERIOUS" and "LABUBU 4.0" had much higher premiums, indicating a shift in consumer interest [1][2] Market Trends and Financial Performance - The lower premium pricing for the new figurines is attributed to the nature of the products and the materials used, which are more affordable, leading to less collector enthusiasm compared to other merchandise like keychains [2] - Bubble Mart's collaboration with the popular series "Wednesday" resulted in a highly sought-after keychain, with the North American version seeing a price increase from 399 yuan to 5499 yuan, a 12.8x premium [2] - As of October 24, the company's stock closed at 230.4 HKD per share, down 0.86%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about revenue growth potential [4] Revenue Growth Projections - Bubble Mart announced a projected revenue growth of 245% to 250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [4] - Domestic revenue is expected to grow by 185% to 190%, while overseas revenue is projected to increase by 365% to 370% [4] - Performance across various channels shows offline sales growing by 130% to 135% and online sales by 300% to 305%, indicating strong demand despite recent stock performance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant pullback in the stock prices of leading new consumption companies, such as Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, is attributed to valuation corrections rather than deteriorating fundamentals, prompting a reevaluation of the new consumption business logic in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 23, 2023, Mixue Group has seen a nearly 5% decline, with a 10% drop over the past five trading days; Pop Mart has dropped 9.3%, with a 19.3% decline over the same period; Lao Pu Gold has experienced a 13.8% drop in the last five trading days [1]. - The "new consumption trio" (Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group) has collectively lost over 280 billion HKD in market value from their peak [2]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for Lao Pu Gold, Pop Mart, and Mixue Group have significantly decreased, with Lao Pu Gold dropping from over 150 times to 35 times, Pop Mart from 128 times to 42 times, and Mixue Group from 48 times to 26.7 times [2]. - In comparison, traditional consumption leader Kweichow Moutai has a dynamic P/E ratio of 20.4 times, while international companies like Disney and Hasbro have P/E ratios of 23.7 times and 22.3 times, respectively [3]. Group 3: Growth Potential and Market Sentiment - Analysts express concerns about the sustainability of growth for new consumption stocks, with some predicting that Pop Mart's revenue growth may peak in 2025, followed by a slowdown [5]. - The PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) ratios for Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group are currently below 1, indicating strong growth expectations despite moderate valuations [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the future revenue prospects of the new consumption sector, with expectations that product repurchase rates, usage frequency, and pricing power will be key indicators of revenue outlook [6]. - The overseas revenue share is also seen as a critical metric for assessing the growth potential of new consumption companies, with Pop Mart's overseas revenue share increasing from 23% in 2021 to 39% in 2024 [7].

Core Insights - The first week of the Double Eleven shopping festival saw a significant increase in the number of merchants and buyers on Xiaohongshu, with the number of merchants achieving over 10 million in sales doubling compared to last year [1] - The total sales of products exceeding 1 million also doubled year-on-year, with sales driven by buyers increasing to 2.5 times compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The categories experiencing substantial growth include women's clothing, jewelry, beauty products, outdoor goods, and fresh produce [1] - Notable merchants such as "CHOWKI's Store," "Chanchan WANG," "Taobo Sports Flagship Store," and "Tingqi Jewelry" all surpassed 10 million in sales during the first week [1] - The top-performing buyer, "Yike KK," achieved sales of over 73 million, while Xue Jiaying's sales in the jewelry sector exceeded 44 million [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The collectibles market, including items like blind boxes and trading cards, has shown explosive growth on Xiaohongshu, with the number of buyers in this category doubling year-on-year [1] - From October 10 to 20, the number of orders in the trendy toy category increased by 89%, driven by a 100% increase in the number of buyers [1] - The flagship store of Pop Mart broadcasted for 110 hours during the first week, resulting in a 15-fold increase in sales compared to the previous year [1]

(2)美国开店节奏加快，且持续拓展书店等渠道合作，推出更多当地限定产品。公司与美国第二大连锁 书店Books-A-Million达成合作，自9月起Books-A-Million全国门店及官网将同步上新泡泡玛特产品，加 速拓展市场。此外，近期北美官宣Skullpanda联名星期三的吊卡新品，tiktok官宣视频播放量150万，点 赞量超过13.7万，热度高企。 国海证券发布研报称，维持泡泡玛特(09992)"买入"评级，上调公司盈利预测，预计2025-2027年营业收 入385.30/494.99/585.48亿元，归母净利润131.28/170.25/201.87亿元，经调整净利润为 135.42/175.58/208.43亿元，对应经调整PE为21/16/14X。公司作为潮玩文化及商业化的先行者与龙头， 基于全产业链与平台优势，多维度运营IP并变现。且产品品类扩张逻辑持续验证，海外市场表现持续超 该行预期。 事件：2025年10月21日，公司公告2025Q3经营情况(未经审核)，2025Q3整体收入同比增长 245%-250%，其中中国同比增长185%-190%，海外同比增长365%-370%。 国海证券主 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国海证券发布研报称，维持泡泡玛特(09992)"买入"评级，上调公司盈利预测，预计 2025-2027年营业收入385.30/494.99/585.48亿元，归母净利润131.28/170.25/201.87亿元，经调整净利润为 135.42/175.58/208.43亿元，对应经调整PE为21/16/14X。公司作为潮玩文化及商业化的先行者与龙头， 基于全产业链与平台优势，多维度运营IP并变现。且产品品类扩张逻辑持续验证，海外市场表现持续超 该行预期。 (3)Q4在国内海外均为旺季，从10月开始陆续有节日接力，如10月万圣节，11月国内双11+海外感恩节以 及黑五，12月圣诞节;2026Q1有1月元旦，2月春节。且该行认为后续重磅产品较多，重要节日或均有新 品。 事件：2025年10月21日，公司公告2025Q3经营情况(未经审核)，2025Q3整体收入同比增长 245%-250%，其中中国同比增长185%-190%，海外同比增长365%-370%。 国海证券主要观点如下： 星星人ip势能加速提升，关注2025Q4旺季表现 (1)2025Q3中国线下、线上渠道收益同比增长130%-135 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Pop Mart in Hong Kong experienced a significant decline, dropping over 4% to HKD 222 after a previous trading day where it fell more than 9% [1] Group 1 - Pop Mart's stock price is currently reported at HKD 222, reflecting a notable decrease [1] - The company faced a substantial drop of over 9% in the previous trading session, indicating ongoing volatility in its stock performance [1]

Group 1: OSL Group - OSL Group is currently the only publicly listed licensed virtual asset exchange in Asia, benefiting from a rare licensing barrier and diversified product expansion, which provides a first-mover advantage [1][3] - The company is expected to achieve profitability for the first time in 2024 since its strategic shift to the digital asset industry in 2018, with net profits projected to be -0.66/-0.12/0.20 million HKD for 2025-2027 [2][24] - OSL has obtained dual licenses from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Anti-Money Laundering Ordinance (AMLO), ensuring compliance and regulatory framework for its operations [3][25] - The company is accelerating global expansion through acquisitions in Japan and Europe, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth [3][25] - A strategic investment of up to 30 million USD in the PayFi ecosystem is planned to enhance payment services, which will be a key focus area for the company in the coming years [4][26] Group 2: Chengde Lululemon - Chengde Lululemon reported a significant revenue recovery in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 8.91%, although the increase in sales expenses offset the gross margin expansion [5][6] - The company is focusing on the launch of new products, particularly the Lululemon plant-based health water series, which is expected to enhance brand competitiveness and capture market demand [7] - The market for traditional health water is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of 30 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a favorable environment for the company's new product line [7] Group 3: GCL Technology - GCL Technology's photovoltaic materials business turned profitable in Q3 2025, with an estimated profit of approximately 9.6 billion RMB, marking a significant recovery [8][34] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of -13.81/13.17/20.55 billion RMB for 2025-2027, reflecting a positive outlook for future profitability [8][34] - The company is benefiting from a reduction in competition and a focus on core business areas, which is expected to enhance its operational efficiency [8][34]

Group 1: Market Overview - On October 23, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 5.345 billion HKD from northbound trading, with 4.77 billion HKD from Shanghai and 575 million HKD from Shenzhen [2] - The most bought stocks included China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883), Pop Mart (09992), and Meituan-W (03690), while the most sold stocks were Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), Innovent Biologics (01801), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net inflow of 2.68 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 4.975 billion HKD [3] - Pop Mart (09992) recorded a net inflow of 5.38 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 4.666 billion HKD [3] - Semiconductor stocks showed divergence, with SMIC (00981) receiving a net inflow of 4.25 billion HKD, while Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) faced a net outflow of 10.14 billion HKD [7] Group 3: Company-Specific News - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) received a net inflow of 9.79 billion HKD, driven by rising international oil prices due to sanctions on Russian oil companies [6] - Pop Mart (09992) saw a net inflow of 7.93 billion HKD, with Morgan Stanley reporting a sales growth of 245% to 250% in Q3, exceeding expectations [6] - Meituan-W (03690) had a net inflow of 5.24 billion HKD, with strategic moves to enhance its overseas business [7] - SMIC (00981) is expected to benefit from increased demand for advanced wafer foundry services due to the growth of AI applications, leading to an upgrade in its rating and target price by Morgan Stanley [7] - Innovent Biologics (01801) and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) faced net outflows of 140 million HKD and 57.32 million HKD, respectively [8]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 245-250% in Q3 2025, accelerating from 204% in H1 2025, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets [1] - The growth was supported by increased plush toy production capacity and the success of new IPs in various regions, including Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific [2][3] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 due to a rich lineup of new products and a diversified IP strategy [4] Revenue Growth - Domestic revenue is expected to grow by 185-190%, while international revenue is projected to increase by 365-370% in Q3 2025 [1] - Online sales are anticipated to rise by 300-305%, with an estimated online penetration rate of 45-50%, surpassing historical peaks [2] - Offline revenue is expected to grow by 130-135%, with a doubling of average store efficiency compared to previous quarters [2] Regional Performance - Revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific region is projected at 170-175%, while North America and Europe are expected to see increases of 1265-1270% and 735-740%, respectively [3] - The company opened approximately 6 new stores in Asia-Pacific, 10 in North America, and 4 in Europe, maintaining a rapid expansion pace [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company is preparing for a strong Q4 with new product launches, including Halloween and Christmas-themed items, which are expected to boost sales [4] - The company is focusing on diversifying its business through collaborations with top global IPs and brands, expanding into new product categories such as desserts and accessories [4] Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been raised by 17%, 9%, and 7% to 135 billion, 185 billion, and 237 billion respectively [4] - The target price has been increased to 410 HKD, reflecting a target PE of 27x for 2026, adjusted from 29x due to changes in market risk preferences [4]

Company Performance - The company reported a 245%-250% year-on-year revenue growth for Q3 2025, with further acceleration in growth compared to the previous quarter. Revenue from the Chinese market grew by 185%-190%, while overseas revenue surged by 365%-370%, exceeding both internal and market expectations due to new product launches and accelerated growth in the European and American markets, alongside a faster release of production capacity [1][2] Chinese Market Insights - In the Chinese market, same-store performance exceeded expectations, with offline channel revenue increasing by 130%-135%. The company has been optimizing store locations and retail layouts throughout the year, enhancing the operational capabilities of its teams in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [1] - Online channel revenue saw a significant increase of 300%-305%, driven by capacity release and intensified efforts to combat scalping, leading to a notable improvement in the overall purchasing experience for fans. The higher profit margin from online sales is expected to further boost the company's profit margins in Q3 [1] Global Market Trends - The company's global IP popularity is on the rise, with revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific, Americas, and Europe regions recorded at 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740% respectively. In Q3, the company opened 23 new stores overseas, including flagship locations in Berlin and New York [2] - The combination of celebrity influence, high-quality new products, and local operations has rapidly increased the popularity of LABUBU, attracting a growing fan base. Other brands like Xiao Ye and SP have also gained significant fan appreciation, evolving into globally recognized IPs [2] Brand Engagement and Product Strategy - The company is placing greater emphasis on the health of its IP and brand, with initiatives such as character meet-and-greets and anniversary tours to strengthen connections with fans and enhance the IP image. The company aims to balance supply release with real demand to mitigate negative effects from secondary market price fluctuations [2] - In anticipation of the Q4 holiday season, the company is launching a series of high-quality products, including Halloween-themed plush toys and collaborations with popular shows, while continuously optimizing store designs and establishing fan engagement systems [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to accelerated capacity release and expected growth during the overseas peak season, the company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 20% and 21% to 13.2 billion and 17 billion respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 23x and 18x adjusted P/E for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating in the industry, with a target price of 370 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 48% based on 35x and 27x adjusted P/E for 2025 and 2026 [2]