Group 1: Industry Overview - The energy industry in Turpan is experiencing new vitality, driven by compliance and effective policies from the local tax authority [1] - Turpan is a significant coal production and processing base in Xinjiang, with a focus on safe mining practices supported by civil explosives [2] Group 2: Company Highlights - Turpan Tianbao Mixed Explosive Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the civil explosive sector, emphasizing compliance and innovation [2] - The company has saved over 28 million yuan in tax reductions over the past three years, which has been reinvested into R&D for new environmentally friendly explosives and intelligent blasting management systems [2] - Tokkexun County Panji Coal Industry Co., Ltd. has become a benchmark in the coal industry, benefiting from good tax credit ratings that enhance its development opportunities [3] Group 3: Taxation and Compliance Support - The Turpan tax authority has implemented targeted services to support compliance in the mining sector, utilizing big data to analyze tax risks and provide tailored advice [3] - The tax department's initiatives, such as "Tax Policy into Mining Areas," have helped companies improve their financial management and maintain good credit ratings [3] - Xinjiang Shengxiong Coking Co., Ltd. has benefited from timely tax policy education, which has clarified tax-related issues and facilitated compliance [4] Group 4: Environmental and Technological Advancements - Companies are focusing on reducing energy consumption and pollution emissions while pursuing green upgrades and industrial transformation [5] - The emphasis on compliance and innovation is seen as a stabilizing factor for the companies' development in the region [4][5]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coking coal and coke is progressing rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of molten iron, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, attention should be paid to the implementation of recent environmental protection and production restriction measures by steel mills. The market is expected to fluctuate [2][3]. Summary by Directory Market Situation - Overseas interest rate cut expectations are strong, and there is a strong atmosphere of "anti - involution" in China. The prices of coking coal and coke futures showed a strong trend yesterday. After the market, there was news of an environmental protection and production restriction plan in Tangshan, causing the night session to open high and close low. Tangshan's steel and coking enterprises have started environmental protection and production restrictions. Steel mills have shut down 40% of their blast furnaces, and coking enterprises have extended the coking time by 30%. The current overall operating rate of coking plants in the Tangshan market is around 75%. Steel mills have received the production restriction notice, but the specific implementation plan is still to be discussed [2]. Coal Mine End - After some coal mines reduced prices, sales improved. The market still expects inventory replenishment before the National Day. Last week, coal production gradually recovered. The daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines was 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Due to the impact of production cuts and improved sales after price cuts, the mine - end inventory decreased [3]. Demand Side - The resumption of production at steel mills is fast. Last week, the daily average molten iron output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before production restrictions. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the upward space of molten iron production, and the demand for raw materials will face a test in the later stage [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are weak, but the upward movement is still restricted. Although there are speculative factors such as anti - involution, the weak demand in the spot market and the increase in supply after the parade continue to limit the upward movement of the market. It is recommended to maintain a strategy of buying coking coal on dips [4]. - As of Friday's close, the coke 01 contract rose 0.56% to 1625.5, and the coking coal 01 contract rose 1.51% to 1144.5 [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking - **Price**: The futures price first fell and then rose last week, and there are opportunities to buy on dips. The first - round reduction of spot prices has been implemented, and the second - round reduction has begun. The trucking freight has increased slightly. For example, the price of Shanxi Jiexiu quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price dropped from 1380 yuan/ton to 1330 yuan/ton [7][10][18]. - **Supply**: Most of the previously shut - down or restricted coking plants have resumed production, and coke supply has increased. As of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of all independent coking enterprises was 75.92%, a week - on - week increase of 2.78 percentage points, and the daily average coke output was 66.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.44 tons [27][29]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production has increased significantly, and the rigid demand for raw materials is still supported. However, after the parade, logistics has improved, steel mills' arrivals have increased, and some steel mills are controlling arrivals. Speculative sentiment is average, export profit has changed little, and the daily trading volume of building materials is lower than the same period in previous years [35][39][41]. - **Inventory**: Inventories have increased across all sectors, and the total inventory has risen. As of September 12, the total coke inventory increased by 10.96 tons week - on - week to 906.24 tons [42][44]. - **Profit**: The profitability of coking enterprises has been compressed, and the coke futures profit has fluctuated. The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan [55][57]. - **Valuation**: The premium of coke 01 has expanded, and the 1 - 5 spread has continued to weaken. The basis of coke 01 decreased by 11.3 to - 95.88 week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 28 to - 137 [59][61]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking - **Price**: The futures price first fell and then rose last week, and there are opportunities to buy on dips. The spot prices have shown mixed trends. For example, the CFR price of Peak Downs hard coking coal from Australia increased by 4.6 dollars/ton to 202.05 dollars/ton [64][67]. - **Supply**: The supply from production areas has increased, the output of coal washing plants has slightly increased, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Mongolian border has remained high, but the cumulative import of coking coal from January to July 2025 has decreased year - on - year. As of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 35.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points, and the daily average output of clean coal was 25.61 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons [70][75][78]. - **Inventory**: Inventories have decreased across all sectors, and the total inventory has declined. As of September 12, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 62.03 tons week - on - week to 2483.50 tons [79][81]. - **Valuation**: The coking coal 01 is basically at par, and the 1 - 5 spread has weakened. The basis of coking coal 01 increased by 14 to - 13.5 week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 9 to - 81 [105][107].

Group 1 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Tianjin has achieved new results in technological innovation, industrial development, and green transformation through comprehensive deepening of reforms [1][3] - Tianjin has formulated 329 reform tasks focusing on ten areas, including regional integration and coordinated development of industry, port, and city [3] - The city has established a platform for achievement transformation, the Tianjin High Education Science and Technology Innovation Park, with over 12,000 national high-tech enterprises and technology-based SMEs [5] Group 2 - Tianjin has enhanced its open economy by exploring innovative policies and building a higher-level free trade zone, adding 17 new container shipping routes during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [7] - The marine economy in Tianjin has surpassed 400 billion yuan [7] - The city has improved urban management systems, renovating 985 old urban communities and creating 270 "pocket parks," attracting over 130 million domestic tourists in the first half of the year [9] Group 3 - Hebei has completed afforestation of 30.46 million acres and desertification control of 9.597 million acres during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing its green foundation [12] - The province is accelerating the green transformation of traditional industries through technological innovation and digital upgrades, with 147 enterprises in key sectors achieving A-level environmental performance [14] - Xiong'an New Area is focusing on building a future industrial system around new-generation information technology, modern life sciences, and new materials, attracting over 200 technology-based companies [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Rebar: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (indicating a bias towards a long position, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - The steel market is gradually stabilizing after continuous adjustments, with costs providing support, but short-term fluctuations remain, and attention should be paid to the improvement in building material demand during the peak season [2]. - Iron ore is expected to mainly trade in a high-range oscillation [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are strongly oscillating, affected by the policy expectations of "anti-involution" and market sentiment, with large price volatility [4][5]. - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to the tender pricing of a large steel mill in the north and the continuity of "anti-involution" policies [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The rebar's apparent demand and production continued to decline this week, with inventory accumulating, while the demand for hot-rolled coils significantly recovered, production increased, and inventory slightly decreased [2]. - The blast furnace is rapidly resuming production, with a significant increase in molten iron production, and the negative feedback pressure has eased, but the poor profit from steel stocking restricts further resumption of production [2]. - The real estate investment continued to decline significantly, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing gradually slowed down, domestic demand remained weak overall, and steel exports remained at a high level [2]. - After continuous adjustments, the pressure on the market has been gradually released, the cost support at the bottom has strengthened, and the market has stabilized in fluctuations, but there may still be short-term fluctuations [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have declined, domestic arrivals have slightly decreased, and port inventories have stabilized and increased, with no significant pressure on inventory accumulation in the short term [3]. - On the demand side, terminal demand has slightly recovered, steel mill profitability is at a low level, molten iron production has returned to a high level this week, and there is still support for iron ore demand in the short term, with steel mills having a certain demand for pre-holiday restocking in the next two weeks [3]. - Domestic policy benefits are yet to be released, and the market speculation sentiment still exists in the short term. It is expected that iron ore will mainly trade in a high-range oscillation [3]. Coke - The price was strongly oscillating during the day. The second round of price cuts for coking is in progress, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of molten iron production [4]. - Coking profits are acceptable, and daily coking production has slightly decreased. The overall coke inventory has increased, and the purchasing willingness of traders has decreased [4]. - The supply of carbon elements remains abundant, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery in downstream molten iron production. Affected by events, the short-term decline was significant, and the market sentiment still anticipates coal overproduction inspections [4]. Coking Coal - The price was strongly oscillating during the day, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of molten iron production [5]. - Affected by the parade, the production of coking coal mines has increased month-on-month. The spot auction transactions have slightly weakened, the transaction price has declined following the market, and the terminal inventory has slightly decreased [5]. - The total coking coal inventory has decreased month-on-month, the production-side inventory has continued to slightly increase, and the previous shutdowns of coking coal have gradually resumed [5]. Silicomanganese - The price oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing of a large steel mill in the north, with the current moving average price at 5,800 yuan/ton [6]. - The short-term decline in molten iron production has a relatively small impact on the overall demand, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery later [6]. - The weekly production of silicomanganese has continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level, and the inventory has not yet accumulated, with good market demand [6]. - The long-term quotation of manganese ore has slightly increased month-on-month, and the spot ore price has decreased this week. After a significant rebound in the market, it is expected that the spot manganese ore price will mainly rise [6]. Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing of a large steel mill in the north, with the current inquiry price at 5,700 yuan/ton [7]. - The short-term decline in molten iron production has a relatively small impact on the overall demand, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery later [7]. - Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has slightly decreased month-on-month, and the demand has slightly declined marginally, but the overall demand is still acceptable [7]. - The supply of ferrosilicon has continued to significantly increase, the market's forward-looking demand is good, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has slightly decreased [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Xuyang (1907.HK) with a target price of HKD 4.2, indicating a potential upside of 68% from the current stock price of HKD 2.5 [1][6][13]. Core Views - Despite the cyclical downturn, China Xuyang managed to achieve profitability in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of RMB 20.549 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, and a net profit of RMB 0.87 billion, down 34% primarily due to falling coke prices [1][2][4]. - The company demonstrated strong cost control capabilities, achieving a gross margin of 11.9%, which is an increase of 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to effective cost-saving measures and a reduction in depreciation expenses [2][3]. - The report anticipates continued low volatility in coke prices for the next six months, with the average price per ton expected to stabilize around RMB 1,500 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Coke and Coking Business**: Revenue for the coke and coking segment was RMB 6.36 billion, down 35.2% year-on-year, with an average selling price of approximately RMB 1,400 per ton, a decrease of about 30% [2]. - **Chemical Business**: Revenue from the chemical segment fell to RMB 9.1 billion, a decline of 12.6%, primarily due to lower average prices for key products [3]. - **Operating Management**: Revenue from operating management dropped to RMB 1.275 billion, a decrease of 47%, mainly due to the completion of agreements for three projects [3]. - **Trade Business**: Trade revenue increased by 53% to RMB 3.73 billion, driven by higher trading volumes, although it reported a pre-tax loss of RMB 184 million [3]. Profit Forecasts - The report revises the net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to RMB 1.7 billion, RMB 4.8 billion, and RMB 10.6 billion respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 2.3 billion, RMB 7.8 billion, and RMB 11.5 billion [1][4]. - Corresponding EPS estimates are adjusted to HKD 0.04, HKD 0.12, and HKD 0.26 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][4]. Valuation Analysis - The valuation is based on both comparable company analysis and DCF methods, with a target price of HKD 4.2 derived from a PE multiple of 40x applied to the 2026 EPS [12][13]. - The DCF analysis estimates a market value of HKD 19.45 billion, reflecting the company's resilience and growth potential despite current industry challenges [12][13].

Group 1: Report Core Views 1. Overall Views - The report provides daily views on coking coal and coke, analyzing their fundamentals, bases, inventories, market trends, and future expectations [2][6]. 2. Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Mines are operating normally, with some restarting. The market has a strong price - cut atmosphere. Traders are selling, and coke producers are cautious in purchasing. The trading atmosphere has become dull, with more online auction failures and price drops [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1170, and the basis is 11.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, 28.1 million tons less than last week, which is a positive factor [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below it. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - **Expectation**: Coke producers' profitability has led to increased production, but steel prices are weak, and coke price cuts have started again. It is expected that coking coal prices will remain stable in the short term [2]. 3. Coke - **Fundamentals**: Coke producers are more productive due to lower raw coal prices and the end of environmental restrictions. However, steel mills' demand has declined, and traders' speculative demand has weakened, leading to slower coke sales [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1570, and the basis is - 76, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, 17.9 million tons less than last week, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below it. The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: Coke production is increasing, but demand is weak. It is expected that coke prices will remain stable in the short term [6]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Prices 1. Coking Coal - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and limited supply increase [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. 2. Coke - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Compressed profit margins of steel mills and over - drawn restocking demand [8]. Group 3: Price and Inventory Information 1. Price - The report lists the prices of different types of metallurgical coke at various ports, including those for trade delivery and factory flat - price delivery [9]. 2. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, 10.2 million tons less than last week. Coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, 17 million tons more than last week [20]. - **Independent Coke Producer Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, 2.9 million tons more than last week. Coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, 3.6 million tons less than last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, 4.3 million tons more than last week. Coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, 13.3 million tons less than last week [30]. Group 4: Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke producers is 74.48% [43]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [47].

Group 1 - The company Jiugang Hongxing announced a total joint liability guarantee of 949 million yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiaries, with no other external guarantees reported [1] - As of January to December 2024, the revenue composition of Jiugang Hongxing is as follows: steel accounts for 90.17%, other businesses for 6.03%, coking industry for 2.33%, power products for 1.42%, and other industries for 0.05% [1] - The current market capitalization of Jiugang Hongxing is 10.2 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The company Jiugang Hongxing (SH 600307) held its 23rd meeting of the 8th board of directors on September 5, 2025, to discuss the proposal for the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, Jiugang Hongxing's revenue composition is as follows: steel accounts for 90.17%, other businesses for 6.03%, coking industry for 2.33%, power products for 1.42%, and other industries for 0.05% [1] - As of the report date, Jiugang Hongxing has a market capitalization of 10.2 billion yuan [1]

Core Insights - Shandong Province's industrial value-added output increased by 7.8% year-on-year from January to July, surpassing the national average by 1.5 percentage points, with 35 out of 41 industrial sectors showing growth, resulting in a growth rate of 85.4% [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a significant increase of 12.5%, with major industries such as electronics, automotive, and electrical machinery growing by 19.7%, 16.1%, and 12.1% respectively [1] - High-tech manufacturing also demonstrated robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, indicating a strengthening of new growth drivers [1] Policy Measures - The Shandong Provincial Industrial and Information Technology Department has implemented 18 supportive measures for enterprises and a 2025 action plan for industrial economy, focusing on resolving issues, providing services, and promoting development [2] - The third batch of policy measures includes targeted support for struggling industrial enterprises, promoting green transformation, enhancing AI applications, and expanding financial service channels [2] - A work plan for stabilizing industrial growth has been developed, emphasizing three key lists: a "billion-yuan incremental project list," a "billion-yuan production enterprise list," and a "standardization cultivation list" for small and micro enterprises [2] Industry Focus - The strategy to curb decline focuses on four major industries: refining, steel, electrolytic aluminum, and coking, with tailored strategies for each to enhance production efficiency and support transformation projects [3] - Additionally, six sectors experiencing a decline in value-added output, including paper, furniture, and cultural products, will receive intensified monitoring and support to facilitate recovery [3] - The approach to address external trade pressures includes initiatives to expand international markets and stabilize supply chains, alongside efforts to enhance enterprise expectations through improved service platforms [3]