邓正红软实力表示，市场聚焦供应，过剩迹象日益增加，导致由美国制裁俄罗斯石油巨头所引发的强劲涨势消退，拖累石油软实力运行，周二（10月28日） 国际油价走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油12月期货结算价每桶跌1.16元至60.15美元，跌幅1.89%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油12 月期货结算价每桶跌1.22美元至64.40美元，跌幅1.86%。在投机性押注大规模平仓后，投资者重新布局，押注即将到来的供应过剩将推动油价下行。全球海 运原油规模创纪录新高，显示过剩供应持续攀升。欧佩克联盟本周末会议可能同意增产。 在供给持续增长但消费增量有限的背景下，原油市场将在较长时间处于供给过剩状态，中长期油价面临明显的下行压力。今年以来，美国石油行业产出低 迷，主要原因在于资本约束导致钻探活动减少，而油价的持续低迷又限制了页岩油企业的上游投资。在经济增长动力不足的大背景下，原油需求前景受到持 续抑制。多家机构纷纷下调今年全球原油需求增量预期，且增幅预计低于去年。在供给增量冲击与需求转弱预期的双重作用下，未来原油市场仍将面临供给 过剩的局面。不过，近期贸易局势的缓和以及全球地缘局势的不稳定，将阶段性提升原油估值 ...

原油日报 | 2025-10-29 俄罗斯制裁有利于欧佩克继续增产 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.16美元，收于每桶60.15美元，跌幅为1.89%；12月交货的 伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.22美元，收于每桶64.40美元，跌幅为1.86%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.78%，报458 元/桶。 2、 沙特国有石油巨头沙特阿美的CEO阿明·纳赛尔表示，即便在西方对俄罗斯主要石油公司俄罗斯石油公司 （Rosneft）和卢克石油公司（Lukoil）实施制裁之前，全球原油需求就已保持强劲。纳赛尔表示，明年石油需求增 长为110万至140万桶/日。未来数十年，石油和天然气仍将是全球能源结构中的重要组成部分，各国政策的"回调" 也反映出对碳氢能源重要性的重新认识。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 10月28日，油价连续第三个交易日走低，因欧佩克+增产计划对油价的负面影响超过了贸易乐观情绪带来的提 振。欧佩克+正倾向于在12月再次小幅增加产量。此前，特朗普政府对俄罗斯两家石油公司实施制裁大幅提振了油 价，目前投资者在思考这些制裁是否还有效。国际能源署署长比罗尔对此表示："一 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 日本石油协会（PAJ）数据显示，截至10月25日当周，日本商业原油库存较之前一周下降377644千升， 至10027202千升。日本汽油库存较之前一周下降16721千升，至1603954千升。日本煤油库存较之前一周 下降91715千升，至2742806千升。日本炼油厂的平均开工率为91.2%，之前一周为86.2%。 ...

希伦加强调，纳石油产业正在从成功勘探迈向初期生产。近年来，纳石油勘探取得重大发现，有望 于2029年至2030年间实现石油商业化生产。纳不仅要成为石油生产国，更要创造一个以伙伴关系和共享 繁荣为核心的可持续能源未来。纳政府正致力于引入资本、技术与知识，确保资源开发可持续，为非洲 能源转型注入新的活力。 （原标题：纳米比亚崛起为非洲能源新星） 据纳《密友报》报道，在2025年非洲能源周（AEW）上，纳总统府石油部门负责人、特别顾问科 内利亚·希伦加表示，纳正迎来步入全球能源舞台的机遇，有望成为非洲石油产业的重要枢纽。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to have no trend - based market, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: Low risk of significant decline, consider taking long positions opportunistically [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Pricing is relatively full, take profit on previous long positions and then wait and see [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The mid - term weakness of rebar prices is hard to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13][14] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Consider buying during pullbacks [18][19] - **Ferroalloys**: May continue to have oversupply in the short term. Consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again after a decline [21][22] - **Crude Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [24][25] - **Fuel Oil**: Look for long - buying opportunities [26][27] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillate [28][29] - **Natural Rubber**: Look for long - buying opportunities [30][31] - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [32][35] - **Urea**: Limited downside space [36][37] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: May have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider participating at low levels [38][39] - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term. Be cautiously bullish and pay attention to oil price changes [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May oscillate in the short term. Participate within a range and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41][42] - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following costs. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side. Control risks [44][45] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46] - **Copper**: Look for long - buying opportunities [47][48] - **Tin**: May oscillate with an upward bias [49] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate [51] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Consider long positions for soybean meal after adjustment; temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [54][55] - **Palm Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [56][58] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [59][60] - **Cotton**: Limited upside space for cotton prices [61][62] - **Sugar**: There is support at the bottom [64][67] - **Apples**: Expected to run strongly [69][71] - **Pigs**: Take profit on short positions in the short term and then wait and see. Wait for opportunities to sell short on rebounds [72][73] - **Eggs**: Hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to wait and see for corn; corn starch may follow the corn market [76][77] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan. ADP will release weekly US employment data. The current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum needs strengthening. The yield is relatively low, and the market risk preference has increased. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market [5][6] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market. The uncertainty in Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased, and the risk of significant decline is low [8][9] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US housing price index increased. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and potential Fed rate cuts are beneficial to precious metals. However, the recent increase has been large, and the pricing is full [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The real - estate industry's downward trend remains unchanged, and rebar demand is declining year - on - year. Although it is the traditional peak demand season, the inventory pressure is obvious. The basic logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar [13][14] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The national hot - metal daily output remains at around 2.4 million tons, supporting prices. Although the import and domestic production of iron ore have increased quarter - on - quarter since the second quarter, the year - on - year decline in the first 9 months remains unchanged. The port inventory is lower than last year [16] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. Coking coal supply is slightly tight due to safety inspections, and demand is okay. The second - round increase in coke procurement prices is gradually being implemented. Coking profits are stable, and demand remains high [18] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon futures closed down, and silicon - iron futures closed up. The manganese - ore shipment from Gabon decreased, and the Australian ore supply increased. The port manganese - ore inventory increased slightly, but the level is still low. The cost of ferroalloys has increased, and the supply is in short - term surplus [21] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward but remained above the 5 - day moving average. The US government shutdown suspended the CFTC report. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased for the second consecutive week. India's Reliance Industries will comply with sanctions on Russia. The increase in US crude - oil production is difficult, and sanctions on Russia are beneficial to oil prices [23][24] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward following crude oil. The sanctions on oil have increased market sentiment. The Asian high - sulfur and ultra - low - sulfur fuel - oil spreads are strong, and the Singapore fuel - oil supply is tight. Sanctions on Russia are beneficial to fuel - oil prices [26] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The short - and medium - term maintenance is expected to increase, which may drive the market to stop falling and rebound. The raw - material side is bearish, and the private - enterprise supply is expected to increase. The short - term market is weak, and it will oscillate [28] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural - rubber futures showed mixed performance. The market should focus on the weather in production areas and demand expectations. The new - rubber production is slow due to weather disturbances, and the raw - material purchase price has increased. The tire - enterprise capacity utilization has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased significantly [30] PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited. After the holiday, focus on exports and supply reduction. The PVC production capacity utilization has decreased, and the demand from downstream industries has increased. The cost - profit situation is complex [32][33] Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed down. In the short term, pay attention to export - policy changes and the seasonal recovery of agricultural demand. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand from the agricultural market has increased. The cost is stable, and the inventory is lower than expected [36] Para - Xylene (PX) - Last trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and the supply has slightly decreased. The cost - side crude oil has recovered. In the short term, PX may oscillate and adjust, with support at the bottom [38][39] PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has changed, and the demand from the polyester industry is stable. The processing fee has been significantly under pressure, and the inventory is low. The cost - side crude oil has recovered. In the short term, it may oscillate [40] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The overall operating load has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. The downstream polyester industry's operating rate is stable, but the terminal demand support is limited. In the short term, it may oscillate [41][42] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The device load has decreased, and the demand has improved. The processing fee is around 1,125 yuan/ton. In the short term, it may oscillate following costs [43] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The processing fee has decreased to around 450 yuan/ton. The factory load has increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost side [44][45] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose. The production is at a high level, and the supply - side profit is sufficient. The demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the social inventory is decreasing [46] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures fell significantly. The spot market was mediocre, and the downstream consumption sentiment was low. The Indonesian copper mine has not resumed production, which supports copper prices. There are different views on the Sino - US APEC meeting [47] Tin - Last trading day, tin futures rose. The mining end is tight, the resumption of production in Wa State is slow, and the domestic processing fee is low. The demand shows certain resilience. The refined - tin inventory is decreasing, and the price may oscillate upward [49] Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures closed down. The change in Indonesia's RKAB approval policy has raised supply concerns. The mining - end price has weakened, and the domestic port inventory is increasing. The high - grade nickel ore is still tight. The stainless - steel consumption is weak, and the refined - nickel market is in surplus [51] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose, and soybean - oil futures fell. Sino - US trade frictions may ease. The soybean - crushing volume of oil mills has recovered to a high level. The soybean - meal inventory has decreased, and the soybean - oil inventory pressure is still large. The consumption of soybean oil may be suppressed, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately [53][54] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm - oil futures fell for the third consecutive day. Indonesia's palm - oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025. The domestic palm - oil import has decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years [56] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. In China, the import of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased in September, while the import of rapeseed oil increased. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels in the past 7 years [59] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market has high expectations for Sino - US negotiations. The export of textile and clothing is relatively stable. The domestic cotton production is expected to be high this year, and the cotton price is under pressure [61][62] Sugar - Last trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded significantly, while overseas sugar futures fell to a four - year low. Brazil's sugar production has slightly exceeded expectations, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. The domestic northern region has started sugar production, and the southern region will start in December [64][66] Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose significantly due to quality concerns. The opening price this year is higher than last year. The late - maturing apple market is active, but the quality is poor [69][70] Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price rose. At the end of the month, the northern market is strengthening, and the southern market is following. The supply from group farms has decreased slightly, and the retail - farmer reluctance to sell remains. The consumption demand has improved. In the second half of the month, the supply from group farms is expected to increase [72] Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The cost per catty has increased slightly, and the farming profit is negative. The number of laying hens in stock is at a high level in the past 9 years. In October, the supply is expected to increase, and the consumption may be lower than expected [74] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose, and corn - starch futures fell. The new - season corn is accelerating to ports, and the inventory is expected to increase. The demand for corn is growing slightly, but the price is under pressure due to the harvest. Corn starch has weak supply and demand, and the inventory is at a high level [76][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "oscillating", including PX, PTA, short - fiber, methanol, urea, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, and caustic soda. Some are rated as "oscillating weakly", such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene. Others are rated as "oscillating downward", like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil [9][17][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical support for crude oil shows signs of weakening. If there is no further reduction in supply, oil prices will return to a weak supply - demand situation. The chemical sector is waiting for more guidance. The bullish power of styrene is gradually brewing, but it still faces pressure from high inventory and new installations. The strong pattern of PTA may change after the meeting of the Price Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Overall, the energy and chemical industry is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term, waiting for the geopolitical situation to calm down [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about Russian oil supply have eased, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil has weakened. The marginal geopolitical risk has decreased. The API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories last week, but the overseas supply pressure still persists. If geopolitical concerns continue to ease, oil prices will return to a weak state [9] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, and the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended. After the sharp rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, which may put pressure on asphalt futures prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the over - valuation premium of asphalt is starting to fall [9][10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel oil may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: After the rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, driving fuel oil prices down. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as sanctions on Russia, and its fundamentals face challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy [12] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas disturbances will increase after November, and methanol is viewed with oscillation. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the methanol futures price oscillated and declined. The high port inventory still has a suppressing effect in the short term, but considering the high probability of Iranian disturbances approaching winter, methanol still has value for low - buying [29] Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has ebbed, and it is viewed with continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the market sentiment weakened, and the spot downstream transactions were cautious. Urea returned to the fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate and consolidate [30] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the sentiment of related varieties, but the fundamentals are under pressure and the elasticity is limited. - **Main Logic**: The cost side oscillates without a clear direction. The supply of coal - based MEG is high, and the supply pressure in November is still large, leading to a significant inventory build - up from November to December [20] PX - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fermentation and cost game, pay attention to the conference resolution. - **Main Logic**: The concern about Russian oil supply has eased, and the medium - and long - term oil prices still face surplus pressure, causing the cost support to be insufficient in the short term. The PX supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the bottom support of PXN has increased. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [13][14] PTA - **Viewpoint**: The cost has fallen and failed to resonate with the sentiment. Pay attention to the subsequent situation of the conference. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is insufficient in the short term due to the easing of concerns about Russian oil supply. The downstream production and sales have turned cold. The PTA price is expected to oscillate under the game between cost and the fermentation of the conference news [14][16] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the upstream sentiment fermentation, and there is no pressure on its own inventory. - **Main Logic**: After the slowdown in price increase, the production and sales of polyester short - fiber have become dull. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is disturbed. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [24][25] Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost support has weakened, pay attention to the conference results. - **Main Logic**: The market is digesting the impact of anti - involution on upstream polyester raw materials. The oil price has turned down again, and the polyester bottle - chip price is expected to oscillate following the cost in the short term [26] Propylene and PP - **Viewpoint**: The spread between propylene and PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates. PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The fundamentals of PP support are limited, and the inventory is at a high level. The PL price oscillates, and the spread between PP and PL fluctuates around 500 [33][34] Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The cost - side support confronts the supply - demand pressure, and plastic is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price rebounds, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The plastic's own fundamentals support is limited, and the profit support is also limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [32] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of positive driving factors, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Styrene has followed the decline in oil prices and then rebounded, but the rebound is weak. It is affected by factors such as new installations and weak downstream follow - up [18][19] PVC - **Viewpoint**: It has low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. The production will increase, the downstream demand is only released at low prices, and the export is affected by anti - dumping [36] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the upstream production is high. The demand elasticity of caustic soda is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [37] 4. Summary of Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2242.59, down 0.90%; the commodity 20 index was 2532.38, down 1.19%; the industrial products index was 2238.86, down 0.64% [285] - **Energy Index**: On October 28, 2025, the energy index was 1168.84, with a daily decline of 0.85%, a 5 - day increase of 3.52%, a 1 - month decline of 2.56%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.81% [287]

2025年10月29日 (原油) gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (氧化铝) 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存持续上升，供应过剩格局难改，现货成交跌势趋缓。当前 指数价格接近触发晋豫现金亏损，等待供应反馈,氧化铝弱势运行为主。 隔夜国际油价回落,布伦特12合约跌1.96%。上周美国API原油及成品油库存超预期下降,但俄罗斯 Rosneft在德子公司已获得美国制裁豁免，令市场认为上周制裁升级仍有回旋余地。我们认为从地 线博弈的角度来看，中美贸易博弈的缓和与破局亦限制了敏感油制裁力度和供应犹动的上限，综合 OPEC+持续增产背景下的持续累库压力,我们认为本轮油价反弹的空间有限,择机再次布局原油空 单与虚值看涨相结合的策略组合。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属延续下跌。近期贸易紧张局势有所缓和，消息称乌克兰和欧洲官员将于本周末举行会议 商讨停火计划细节，短期避险情绪降温，贵金属陷入调整或将构筑高位震荡平台，耐心等待企稳后 参与机会。聚焦明日凌晨美联储议息会议。 【铜】 隔夜铜价继续展现多配韧性，尽管黄金与上证4000点表现影响铜市交投，但供损与高金铜比支持铜 价。市场将继续关注中美元 ...

从市场整体情况来看，10月27日国际原油期货价格下跌，业者鲜有入市操作意向，市场购销气氛不佳。 （文章来源：新华财经） 分区域来看，宁夏汽油批发价格上涨，新疆、吉林、内蒙古、甘肃、重庆、海南、山东、山西、北京、 天津汽油批发价格下跌；新疆、内蒙古、海南、甘肃、宁夏、江西、吉林、重庆、山西、河南柴油批发 价格下跌。山东地炼方面，汽油价格下跌，柴油价格小幅下跌。 中国汽、柴油批发价格由中国经济信息社-中国石油经济技术研究院"能源大数据实验室"联合上海石油 天然气交易中心发布，基于对全国范围内主要经营单位和社会经营单位（不含炼厂）的批发价格数据采 集并计算形成，是反映中国汽、柴油批发市场整体情况的权威产品。 新华财经北京10月29日电（薛尚文）中国汽、柴油批发价格显示，10月28日，中国汽、柴油批发价格均 下跌。全国92#汽油平均批发价格为7551元／吨，较前一日下跌31元／吨；柴油（含低凝点）平均批发 价格为6548元／吨，较前一日下跌32元／吨。 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-29原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.基本面：德国经济和能源部长莱歇告诉路透，美国政府已书面保证，俄油在德国的业务将免受新的 能源制裁，因为这些资产已不再由俄罗斯控制；以色列总理内塔尼亚胡下令军方立即在加沙发动"强 力打击"，以回应士兵在加沙遇袭事件，此举重新引发了市场对中东供应的担忧；印度石油公司高 管：绝不会完全停止购买俄罗斯原油；中性 2.基差：10月28日，阿曼原油现货价为65.60美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为64.70美元/桶，基差 22.24元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至10月24日当周API原油库存减少4 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: October 29, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers and India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports have affected the market. Short - term support from Indian purchases is expected to continue in the Dubai market, while the medium - term impact on oil prices depends on multiple factors. Geopolitical concerns were raised by US military actions against Venezuela. Fundamentals have improved, but the Singapore diesel inventory build has limited the global diesel crack spread. Short - term oil price rebounds and volatility risks increase, and the upside space for medium - term oil prices is limited due to OPEC's potential to increase production, with an oversupply situation continuing in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending October 24 decreased by 4.02 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 2.981 million barrels in the previous week [3]. - Israel attacked Gaza again, but US officials said the cease - fire "remained in effect". Hamas postponed the return of Israeli detainees' remains due to Israeli attacks [3]. - Russia's Peskov said it was currently unable to assess the prospects of restarting Russia - Ukraine negotiations, citing Ukraine's lack of willingness to continue dialogue [3]. - An executive of an Indian oil company stated that India would never completely stop buying Russian crude [4]. - Morgan Stanley predicted that the Brent crude price would be $57.5 per barrel in the first half of 2026 and $60 in the second half [4]. - Currently, about 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil are being shipped on tankers, the highest level since records began in 2016 [4]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - For the week ending October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day [4]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day for the week ending October 17 [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels, a 0.2% decline [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a 0.1% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels, a 0.2% increase for the week ending October 17 [5]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.918 million barrels per day for the week ending October 17, an increase of 393,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]. - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending October 10 decreased by 267,000 barrels, with an expected decrease of 75,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 1.601 million barrels [5]. - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending October 10 decreased by 4.529 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 294,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 2.018 million barrels [5]. - From October 16 - 23, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries decreased slightly. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventories both decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [6]. 3.3 Weekly View - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers and India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports have affected the market. Short - term support from Indian purchases is expected to continue in the Dubai market, while the medium - term impact on oil prices depends on multiple factors. Geopolitical concerns were raised by US military actions against Venezuela. Fundamentals have improved, but the Singapore diesel inventory build has limited the global diesel crack spread. Short - term oil price rebounds and volatility risks increase, and the upside space for medium - term oil prices is limited due to OPEC's potential to increase production, with an oversupply situation continuing in the fourth quarter [7].