1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic growth is slowing down, with drags from the real estate sector, weakening consumption support, and declining investment growth. However, policy - side counter - cyclical adjustments have been implemented, and the stock market remains strong while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed has started a "preventive降息周期" [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the upward risk of the US dollar may be higher than the downward risk. The exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10 in the short - term, and policy signals from the RMB central parity rate should be focused on [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the multi - empty game and the approaching holidays [6]. - Treasury bonds should focus on central bank dynamics. There may be opportunities for long - side intervention on dips [7]. - Precious metals are expected to run strongly as the Fed's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and gold price will continue to rise [10]. - Copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply in the short - term and stable demand [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina may run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [17]. - Zinc is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern and is recommended to be under - weighted [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are mainly affected by the macro - level, and the fundamentals provide no clear guidance [21]. - Tin prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton, with short - term supply remaining tight [23]. - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [25]. - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. - Lead prices are expected to be cautiously bullish as the supply - demand contradiction lies in raw materials [29]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday, with limited upward and downward space [30]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with support from replenishment and high molten iron production but limited upward space due to demand and high shipments [34]. - Coking coal and coke prices are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, but the rebound height is restricted by high steel inventory [35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost and term structure improvement, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. - Crude oil is under fundamental pressure, and the medium - term trend is bearish, although geopolitical risks may cause short - term rebounds [40]. - LPG is expected to oscillate weakly as the overall driving force weakens [44]. - PTA - PX needs macro - level drivers to break through, and the polyester peak season is not highly expected [48]. - MEG is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan, and short - term downward space is limited [51]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. - PP's downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long - positions on dips [57]. - PE is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern as the real - world situation is weak but the valuation is low [60]. - PVC is recommended to be observed temporarily due to the coexistence of weak fundamentals and macro - level expectations [62]. - Pure benzene is facing increasing surplus pressure, and its price is expected to be weakly volatile. Styrene is expected to oscillate, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene can be considered to be widened [64][66]. - Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. - Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Market Information**: There were various events such as the China - US presidential phone call, policy announcements in China (e.g., Shanghai's property tax adjustment), and overseas events like the Fed's interest - rate decision, Japan's central bank actions, and geopolitical events [1]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - economy shows a complex situation with slowing growth and policy counter - cyclical adjustments. The stock and commodity markets are affected differently, and overseas, the Fed's policy path depends on employment and inflation [2]. 3.2 RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Friday, with the central parity rate also being adjusted downwards [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policy. The US dollar index may mainly trade based on the current situation, and the RMB exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10, with policy signals from the central parity rate being crucial [4]. 3.3 Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index was volatile with reduced trading volume last Friday, and the trading enthusiasm declined but sentiment improved [6]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a multi - empty game. With the approaching holidays, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [6]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bonds rebounded last week but dropped significantly on Friday, and the money market was tight due to tax payments [7]. - **Core Logic**: The economic data in August showed downward pressure, but the market paid little attention. The bond market was less affected by the stock market. The market lacks a clear right - side signal, and attention should be paid to central bank dynamics [7]. 3.5 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Performance**: London spot gold and silver continued to rise last week, with short - term adjustments after the Fed's interest - rate cut but strong rebounds on Friday [10]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed is in a monetary policy easing cycle, and gold prices will continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy expectations and relevant economic data [10]. 3.6 Copper - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper declined during the week, and inventories changed differently in different markets [13]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in copper prices was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the future, copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply and stable demand [15]. 3.7 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends, and relevant trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, after the interest - rate cut, the focus may shift to fundamentals, and prices may oscillate strongly. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus and may have a weak price trend. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and may oscillate strongly [17]. 3.8 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated slightly, and trading volume and positions changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: The zinc market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and supply - demand fundamentals. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. It is recommended to maintain an under - weighted position [20]. 3.9 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel declined, and relevant spot prices and inventories also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: They are mainly affected by the macro - level, with limited fundamental adjustments. The future trend needs further observation [21]. 3.10 Tin - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin declined slightly during the week, and inventories increased [22]. - **Core Logic**: The decline was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the short - term, supply is tight, and prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton [23]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The weighted index contract of carbonate lithium rose last week, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [24]. - **Core Logic**: The lithium - battery industry chain performed well last week. With the expected increase in downstream demand, carbonate lithium prices may oscillate before the National Day [24][25]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The weighted futures contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [26]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. 3.13 Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated at a high level, and trading volume and positions changed [29]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut has little impact on lead prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, and prices may rise cautiously [29]. 3.14 Black Metals 3.14.1 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Steel prices were strong, and there were price adjustments in billets [30]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of steel decreased, and demand improved slightly, but inventory was still at a high level. Before the holiday, steel prices are expected to oscillate with limited space [30]. 3.14.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market may return to fundamental trading. Supply is abundant, demand is strong, and inventory is transferring from ports to steel mills. Prices are expected to oscillate [32][33]. 3.14.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: There were relevant geopolitical and policy - related events. - **Core Logic**: Downstream pre - holiday replenishment has started, and the market's sentiment is improving. However, high steel inventory restricts the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. 3.14.4 Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese rose, and positions decreased [37]. - **Core Logic**: They are supported by cost and term - structure improvement. The long - term logic is related to the anti - involution expectation, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. 3.15 Energy and Chemicals 3.15.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices weakened, with declines in both WTI and Brent crude [40]. - **Core Logic**: The core contradiction is between fundamental pressure and geopolitical support. Fundamentals are bearish in the medium - term, while geopolitical events may cause short - term rebounds [40]. 3.15.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: LPG prices declined, and relevant spot prices also changed [42]. - **Core Logic**: The overall driving force is weakening, with supply increasing slightly and demand changing little [44]. 3.15.3 PTA - PX - **Market Performance**: The prices of PX and PTA were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [45]. - **Core Logic**: The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and macro - level drivers are needed for a breakthrough [48]. 3.15.4 MEG - Bottle Chip - **Market Performance**: The inventory of MEG increased, and the prices were affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [49]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is under pressure from inventory expectations but has limited downward space. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan [51]. 3.15.5 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The price of methanol changed, and the inventory situation was different in different regions [53]. - **Core Logic**: The main contradiction lies in the port, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. 3.15.6 PP - **Market Performance**: The price of PP declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: The downstream demand recovery is less than expected, but the profit compression may trigger device shutdowns and a potential rebound [57]. 3.15.7 PE - **Market Performance**: The price of PE declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [58]. - **Core Logic**: The real - world situation is weak, but the low valuation limits the downward space, and an oscillatory pattern is expected [60]. 3.15.8 PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC prices were at a low level, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [61]. - **Core Logic**: The industry has weak fundamentals, but macro - level expectations make short - selling less attractive. It is recommended to observe temporarily [62]. 3.15.9 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, and their inventory situations changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene faces increasing surplus pressure, and styrene may oscillate. The spread between them can be considered to be widened [64][66]. 3.15.10 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed, and their supply, demand, and inventory situations were different [67][68]. - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. 3.15.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The price of asphalt declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [70]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. 3.15.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: The price of urea declined, and its inventory situation changed [72]. - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★☆ (representing a clear long/short trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (representing a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (representing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline, and cotton spot sales were poor with most prices stable. Xinjiang cotton has a high probability of a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The expected opening price of machine - picked cotton is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The cotton yarn market has general trading, and downstream orders are still not ideal. Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations should be noted. Temporarily wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio is still at the upper edge of the historical range, and Brazil's sugar - making ratio may remain high next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar declined weakly. This year's sales rhythm is fast, inventory is lower year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market focus has shifted to imports and the next crushing season's output estimate. The syrup import volume has decreased significantly this year, but the output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples is good, and the spot market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, the apple output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply side lacks bullish drivers. The storage volume of late - maturing apples in cold storage may be higher than expected. It is expected that the short - term futures price will continue to decline, and a bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated, and the futures market sentiment was cautious. The domestic natural rubber spot price declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with some increases, and the external butadiene port price declined. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has dropped significantly this week. The domestic tire operating rate has slightly increased, and the tire inventory has increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao has decreased to 586,600 tons, and the butadiene social inventory has dropped to 12,600 tons. Demand is stable, natural rubber supply increases while inventory decreases, synthetic rubber supply and inventory both decrease. With the National Day holiday approaching, risk appetite is low. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the inventory of Chinese pulp ports decreased slightly compared to the previous period but was still at a high level year - on - year. The warehouse receipt digestion was slow. China's pulp import volume in August decreased month - on - month. The inflation is expected to be weak this year, and the PPI has marginally improved. The port inventory is high, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is general. Temporarily wait and see or trade within a range [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly month - on - month. The quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The demand is entering the peak season, but the shipment volume has not increased significantly. The inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. Temporarily wait and see [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures 01 contract decreased by 0.41%, with the previous settlement price at 5344 yuan/ton and the closing price at 5322 yuan/ton. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market is 5020 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The quoted price of Arauco's Silver Star in Shandong is 5630 - 5650 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's new September pulp export prices: Silver Star (softwood pulp) is 700 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last month; Venus (unbleached pulp) is 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last month; Star (hardwood pulp) is 520 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last month. UPM extended the shutdown and maintenance of two Finnish pulp mills by two weeks [8]. - In August, the European pulp inventory was 707,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; the European pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. China's pulp import volume in August was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.54% month - on - month [8]. - In the downstream cultural paper market, the supply increased due to the resumption of previously shut - down production lines, and the inventory pressure of paper enterprises increased recently, showing a weak and volatile trend. In the short term, pulp supply is relatively abundant. Although the start - up rate of downstream paper mills has increased, they mainly purchase at low prices under cost pressure, and the pulp market will continue to adjust with low - level fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The pulp futures 01 contract (SP2601) had an opening price of 5344 yuan/ton, a high of 5354 yuan/ton, a low of 5290 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5322 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. The trading volume was 36,585 lots, and the open interest decreased by 504 lots to 30,131 lots. For SP2605, the closing price was 5346 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The Shandong softwood pulp market had an intended transaction price range of 5020 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the Silver Star was quoted at 5630 - 5650 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industry News Impact**: Arauco's price adjustments and UPM's extended shutdown, along with European and Chinese pulp inventory and consumption data, as well as the situation in the downstream cultural paper market, all affect the short - term pulp market, which is expected to remain in a low - level volatile adjustment [8]. 2. Industry Highlights - On September 18, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the first batch of delivery warehouses for offset printing paper futures. Jianfa Warehousing and Jianfa Pulp & Paper, subsidiaries of Jianfa Co., Ltd., obtained the qualifications for delivery warehouses and delivery factories respectively. Offset printing paper, mainly made of bleached wood pulp, is widely used in books, textbooks, and magazines, and double - sided offset printing paper accounts for about 40% of domestic cultural paper consumption. This is significant for stabilizing the industrial supply chain and promoting market development [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and Zhuochuang Information [15][25][27]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts, and pulp futures are oscillating [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - On September 17, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2505 were 5348, 5042, and 5368 respectively, with daily changes of -0.04%, -0.51%, and 0.19%, and weekly changes of 1.44%, 0.92%, and 1.78% [5] - The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broadleaf pulp Goldfish were 5650, 5250, and 4220 respectively, with daily changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.96%, and weekly changes of 0.00%, 1.55%, and 0.96% [5] - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 700, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively, with monthly changes of -2.78%, 3.92%, and 0.00% [5] - The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with monthly changes of -2.75%, 3.87%, and 0.00% [5] Fundamental Data Supply - In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.72%, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.85% [5] - The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp from July 31, 2025, to September 11, 2025, fluctuated within a certain range [5] Inventory - As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [5] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse from July 31, 2025, to September 11, 2025, also fluctuated [5] Demand - The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard from July 31, 2025, to September 11, 2025, remained relatively stable [5] Valuation Data - On September 17, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 208 with a quantile level of 0.901, and the Silver Star basis was 608 with a quantile level of 0.871 [5] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was -71 with a quantile level of 0.496, and that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was -124 with a quantile level of 0.522 [5] Market Situation - On the supply side, Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in broadleaf pulp quotes [5] - On the demand side, the current demand for paper products is basically stable, and some paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be seen [5] - On the inventory side, the inventory change is not significant [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no obvious reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. However, benefiting from the warming of commodity sentiment, pulp futures are expected to run strongly in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5324 with a daily increase of 0.87% and a weekly increase of 0.64%; SP2511 was 5056 with a daily increase of 1.32% and a weekly increase of 0.60%; SP2509 was 4970 with a daily increase of 0.69% and a weekly decrease of 0.04% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.88%; Russian Needle was 5200 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.58%; Eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily and weekly change [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a decrease of 2.70% compared to the previous period; Japanese Quote increased by 3.92% to 530 dollars; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 590 dollars [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, an increase of 3.87% compared to the previous period; Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 4830 [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a decrease of 4.72% compared to June; the import volume of eucalyptus pulp was 135.1 tons, a decrease of 5.85%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23% [5]. - **Production**: The domestic production of eucalyptus pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained relatively stable from July 31 to September 11, 2025 [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.2% decrease. The inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 24.5 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard remained relatively stable. Some offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be observed [5]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 16, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 144 with a quantile level of 0.871; the basis of Silver Star was 594 with a quantile level of 0.865 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On September 16, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; the import profit of eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.479 [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, and there is no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. In the short term, it will still operate weakly [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, SP2601 was 5324 with a daily increase of 0.87% and a weekly increase of 0.64%; SP2511 was 5056 with a daily increase of 1.32% and a weekly increase of 0.60%; SP2509 was 4970 with a daily increase of 0.69% and a weekly decrease of 0.04% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.88%; Russian Needle was 5200 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.58%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily or weekly change [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In September 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Japanese Utsumi was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5] - **Import Costs**: In September 2025, the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.72%; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a monthly decrease of 5.85%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a monthly decrease of 0.2%. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.5 tons [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper was relatively stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard paper mills issued price increase letters, but the implementation situation remains to be observed [5] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 15, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 144 with a quantile level of 0.871; the Silver Star basis was 594 with a quantile level of 0.865 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 15, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.479 [5] Market Situation and Strategy - **Supply - side**: Brazilian Suzano announced a price increase of 20 dollars/ton in the Asian market in August 2025. Chilean Arauco notified the August quotes, with the coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable [5] - **Inventory - side**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory change was not significant, and the commodity market was running strongly in the short term due to the anti - involution sentiment [5] - **Strategy**: The pulp fundamentals have no signs of repair, and it will still operate weakly in the short term [5]

Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures 01 contract rose 0.91% overall, with the pre - settlement price at 5276 yuan/ton and the closing price at 5324 yuan/ton. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market is 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The offer price of Shandong Yinxing is 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's August wood pulp export quotes were stable compared to June. The shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in July increased month - on - month by 3.2% and year - on - year by 4.1%. China's pulp import volume in August decreased month - on - month by 7.9% and year - on - year by 5.6%. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.71% compared to the previous week. The downstream cultural paper market is running weakly, and the pulp market will continue to adjust with low - level fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of pulp futures rose 0.91%. The 05 contract rose 0.76%, and the 09 contract rose 0.89%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market is 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable. Shandong Yinxing is quoted at 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Arauco's August quotes were stable compared to June. In July, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major producing countries increased. China's pulp imports in August decreased. The inventory as of September 11 increased. The downstream cultural paper market has resumed production, but new orders are limited, and the pulp market will continue low - level fluctuations [8]. 2. Industry News - On September 11, the State Administration for Market Regulation approved the release of 622 recommended national standards and 6 recommended national standard modification orders, including 6 national standards in the papermaking field, which will improve the standard system and promote the healthy development of the industry [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 12, 2025, SP2601 was 5300 with a daily increase of 0.64% and a weekly decrease of 0.34%; SP2511 was 5016 with a daily increase of 0.40% and a weekly decrease of 0.71%; SP2509 was 4960 with a daily increase of 0.45% and a weekly decrease of 0.68% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.22%; Russian Needle was 5170 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.58%; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.48% [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote for Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Japanese NBSK was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Import Volume**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.72%; broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a monthly decrease of 5.85% [5] - **Supply - Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly from July 31 to September 11, 2025 [5] - **Supply - Shipment Volume**: The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5] - **Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a monthly decrease of 0.2% [5] - **Inventory - Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 24.5 tons, showing a slight change compared to previous periods [5] - **Demand - Finished Paper Production**: From July 31 to September 11, 2025, the production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated slightly [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 12, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 154 with a quantile level of 0.877; the Silver Star basis was 634 with a quantile level of 0.879 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.478 [5] Market Situation - **Supply Side**: Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotes, with the coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand Side**: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be seen [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports showed a narrow - range destocking trend [5] Strategy - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, and the pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts have not significantly decreased. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [5]

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 12, 2025, was 4990.00, with a previous day's closing price of 5016.00 and a decline of -0.51834% [3] - The corresponding US dollar price was 611.31, and the basis for Shandong Yinxing was 675, while that for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing was 690 [3] Group 2: Pulp Price and Profit Information - For pulp from different origins and brands, such as Golden Lion from Canada (CFR price of 780), Lion from Canada (CFR price of 730), and Yinxing from Chile (CFR letter of credit 90 - day price of 720), the import profits were -145.57, -533.29, and -197.83 respectively [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The same was true for the Shandong region [4] - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and living paper (living index) also remained unchanged during this period [4] Group 4: Paper Profit Margin Information - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and living paper on September 12, 2025, were 2.9521%, 18.9325%, -12.6626%, and 8.0245% respectively. The living paper profit margin increased by 0.2674 compared to previous days [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spread Information - On September 12, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper were 1505.00, 265, 1840, and 4089 respectively [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].