8月20日亚市早盘，现货黄金在3315美元关口反复震荡，昨夜一度触及3314.80美元的月内低点——这场持 续两周的拉锯战，正将市场情绪压至冰点。 当市场陷入3315-3350美元的无序波动，投资者最需要的不是预测，而是交易工具的抗压性。 撕裂黄金走势地暴风中心 1. 美联储的"鹰派幽灵" 尽管CME FedWatch工具显示9月降息概率仍高达84%，但昨夜公布的7月PPI年率跳涨至3.3%（创四年最 高），核心PPI飙至3.7%，像一盆冷水泼向降息狂欢。交易员们甚至开始讨论"美联储是否被迫推迟降 息"。 2. 地缘政治的双面刃 特朗普与普京的阿拉斯加密谈、泽连斯基的紧急访美——这些事件释放的"和平信号"让避险需求瞬间降 温。但有分析师警告称："若俄乌和谈破裂，金价将遭遇负面冲击"。 巨象视角：震荡市中的生存法则 资深黄金分析师团队，全天候、分时段给到实时策略参考，参考更及时有效，交易更轻松无忧！ 当金价在3315美元边缘摇摇欲坠，当鲍威尔的演讲稿可能改写下半年走势，所有黄金交易者均再翘首以 盼，巨象将一如既往坚定领航，期待与全球华人投资者共享盈利。 1. 订单执行速度定盈亏 身为香港黄金交易所AA类行员，巨 ...

本月黄金交割量为681,449.02千克，实物出库量为93,496.8千克；白银交割量为1,562,670千克，实物出库量为107,565千克。 作者：上海黄金交易所 2025年7月，上海黄金交易所各类合约的成交金额为42,157.38亿元，同比增加24.9%，其中，询价交易成交31,873.04亿元，占比 75.6%。会员自营和代理业务的交易金额分别为39,642.78亿元和2,514.60亿元。 本月黄金成交量为5,306,946.02千克，同比减少2.0%，成交金额40,984.05亿元，同比减少2.7%，日均成交量为230,736.78千克； 铂金成交11,902千克，同比减少16.9%，成交金额37.82亿元，同比减少8.0%，日均成交量为517.48千克；白银成交12,514,828千 克，同比减少0.5%，成交金额1,135.51亿元，同比增加3.4%，日均成交量为493,699.51千克。 本月国际金价维持高位盘整，现货黄金（XAU）收于3,296.33美元/盎司，较上月上涨12.76美元，低点和高点分别为3,268.18美元 和3,438.99美元。国际现货白银（XAG）收于36.31美元/ ...

Core Insights - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has surged due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and persistent global inflation, leading to a significant increase in gold trading activities and investor interest in compliance and trading strategies [3][4]. Trading Activity and Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, the domestic gold futures and options trading volume skyrocketed by 149.17%, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange's trading volume reached 12.12 trillion yuan, marking a 56.46% year-on-year increase [1]. - The consumption of gold bars and coins increased by 23.69%, with 62% of new individual investors being first-time participants in precious metal trading [3]. Regulatory Impact - The People's Bank of China's new anti-money laundering regulations require strict identity verification for cash transactions exceeding 100,000 yuan, affecting high-net-worth investors and increasing the focus on platform compliance and fund transparency [3][5]. Trading Costs and Profitability - With gold prices surpassing 3,400 USD per ounce, trading costs have become critical to profitability, with average spreads around 0.5 USD per ounce and commissions adding significant costs [4]. - Gold trading platforms like Jinseng Precious Metals offer competitive spreads as low as 0.3 USD per ounce and zero commissions, potentially saving investors 20-50 USD per trade [4]. Platform Compliance and Security - Compliance with regulatory standards is a top priority for investors, with Jinseng Precious Metals demonstrating strong compliance through unique transaction codes and strict fund segregation [5]. - The platform employs SSL encryption and multi-layer firewalls to ensure the security of client information and transaction data, achieving a zero incidence rate of system vulnerabilities in Q2 2025 [5]. Trading Experience and Technology - The high volatility in the gold market, with daily price swings reaching 55 USD per ounce, emphasizes the importance of platform stability for capturing profit opportunities [6]. - Jinseng Precious Metals supports MT4 and MT5 trading platforms with rapid order execution and a smart alert system to help investors manage risk effectively [6]. Investment Strategies for New Investors - New investors are advised to prioritize compliance by selecting regulated platforms and managing funds through traceable methods, especially given the new cash transaction regulations [8]. - Utilizing automated trading tools can enhance profitability, with data indicating that automated strategy users achieved an 18% higher average return compared to manual traders [8]. Overall Investment Framework - Investors are encouraged to adopt a "compliance-first, technology-driven, full-cycle management" investment framework amidst fluctuating gold prices projected between 3,209 and 3,905 USD per ounce in 2025 [9]. - Jinseng Precious Metals offers rapid account opening and withdrawal processes, along with a robust fund custody system, positioning itself as a reliable choice for navigating market volatility [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound of consumer inflation in the US reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. The EU intends to hold a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement. However, due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to build long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 775.86 yuan/gram, down 2.77 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 23,234, and the open interest decreased by 730 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 9,173 yuan/ten - grams, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the spot Shanghai silver T + D was 452,542, and the open interest was 3,447,314, down 63,142 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 3,381.70 dollars/ounce, down 101 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 115,486, and the open interest was 328,360, down 3,192 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 38.02 dollars/ounce, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 86,225, and the open interest was 70,294, down 34,959 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **US Economy**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and real retail sales grew for the tenth consecutive month. In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly declined, and long - and short - term inflation expectations rose. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars of mainly short - term Treasury bonds in the third quarter. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate at the consumer end. The inflation expectations in August are higher than expected, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) CPI annual rate in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August. It continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025 and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The UK's CPI (core CPI) annual rate in June was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. Japan's (Tokyo) core CPI annual rate in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The GDP quarterly rate in the second quarter was 0.3%, higher than expected. With the US Treasury Secretary urging the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time being October [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait for price drops to build long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan/ten - grams [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile correction. Higher - than - expected US inflation data dampened rate - cut expectations, and the optimistic global trade sentiment boosted investor confidence, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and putting pressure on gold and silver prices [3][5]. - The higher - than - expected US PPI data in July indicated persistent inflation pressure, and the labor market remained resilient, weakening the expectation of a significant rate cut in September. However, some senior officials still called for rate cuts, and monetary policy remained highly uncertain [3][5]. - The market focus has shifted to the US - Russia - Ukraine meeting and its potential impact on the geopolitical situation and safe - haven assets. Gold and silver are expected to show a volatile trend in the short term [3][6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 775.80 | - 12.00 | - 1.52 | 197655 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 623.59 | 31.69 | 5.35 | 23234 | 198744 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3381.70 | - 76.50 | - 2.21 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9204 | - 74 | - 0.80 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 7762 | 212 | 2.81 | 452542 | 3447314 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.02 | - 0.49 | - 1.27 | | | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices showed a volatile correction last week due to higher - than - expected US inflation data and optimistic global trade sentiment [3][5]. - The US PPI data in July and the labor market situation weakened the expectation of a significant rate cut in September, but there were still calls for rate cuts from some officials, and monetary policy was uncertain [3][5]. - After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the market is paying attention to the US - Russia - Ukraine meeting and its impact on geopolitics and safe - haven assets. Gold and silver will be volatile in the short term. This week, key data such as the preliminary PMI data for July in the US and the Eurozone and the number of initial jobless claims in the US should be focused on, as well as events like the release of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting minutes, the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium, and the possible US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite meeting [6]. 3.3 Important Data Information - US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. Core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February [8]. - US PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since June 2022, further frustrating the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000, a slight decrease of 3,000, remaining at a low level since November 2021. The number of continued claims dropped to 1.953 million, slightly lower than expected but still hovering at a high level since 2021, indicating a still - robust labor market [8]. - US retail sales in July increased 0.5% month - on - month, with real retail sales growing for the tenth consecutive month. The year - on - year increase was 3.9%, and the June data was revised up to 0.9%. After inflation adjustment, real retail sales increased 1.2% year - on - year, showing resilient consumer spending [8]. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in August was 58.6, lower than the expected 62, and the sub - indices also declined. Both short - and long - term inflation expectations rose, reflecting concerns about the impact of tariffs [9]. - The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in the US in August was 4.9%, erasing last month's improvement, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.9%, higher than expected [9]. - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in the Eurozone in August was 25.1, down from the previous value of 36.1. In Germany, it was 34.7, lower than the expected 39.8 and the previous value of 52.7 [9]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - **Precious Metal ETF Holdings Changes**: As of August 15, 2025, the total gold holdings of ETFs were 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from last week, 21.74 tons from last month, and 110.40 tons from last year. The silver holdings of ishare were 15071.31 tons, an increase of 80.51 tons from last week, 413.10 tons from last month, and 595.01 tons from last year [10]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions Changes**: For gold futures on August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 288,115, non - commercial short positions were 58,630, and non - commercial net long positions were 229,485, a decrease of 7,565 from last week. For silver futures on the same date, non - commercial long positions were 66,252, non - commercial short positions were 21,984, and non - commercial net long positions were 44,268, a decrease of 6,390 from last week [11][13].

Group 1 - The global economy in 2025 is characterized by uncertainty, influenced by interest rate changes, geopolitical events, and inflation data, making investment decisions challenging for investors [1] - Investors face difficulties in navigating the overwhelming amount of news and analysis regarding gold prices, leading to confusion in decision-making [1] - The company aims to be a reliable partner for investors, providing tools and knowledge to make informed investment decisions in the gold market [1] Group 2 - The company has established an interactive classroom with over 10 industry experts who provide insights into global macroeconomic trends and precious metal market movements [3] - The year 2025 is expected to bring significant price volatility in gold due to geopolitical conflicts, policy shifts, and fluctuating inflation, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors [3] - The company focuses on empowering investors with deep knowledge and professional support to help them navigate the complexities of the gold market confidently [3]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3343.85, 38.32, 1337.00, 1122.00, 63.96, and 9774.00 respectively, with changes of -20.55, -0.29, 1.00, -20.00, 1.31, and -68.00 [2] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, and US Dollar to Japanese Yen are 98.20, 1.16, 1.35, and 147.75 respectively, with changes of 0.42, -0.01, -0.00, and 0.37 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventory of SHFE Silver is 1150.78, with a change of 15.68; the latest value of Gold ETF holdings is 961.36, with a change of -2.86; the latest value of Silver ETF holdings is 15071.31, with a change of -28.25 [3] - The deferred fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are both 1, with no change [3]

香港第一金1小时走势参考图 2025年8月14日 黄金行情分析 消息面： 美国总统特朗普威胁称，如果俄罗斯总统普京阻碍乌克兰和平进程，他将面临"严重后果"，但特朗普也 表示，在与普京会晤后，可能很快举行美俄乌三国领导人会晤。特朗普赞扬他与乌克兰总统泽连斯基和 欧洲领导人的通话非常愉快。法国总统马克龙表示，特朗普同意乌克兰必须参与有关割让领土的任何讨 论，而泽连斯基则表示，特朗普支持在战后解决方案中提供安全保障的想法。 在数据显示美国7月通胀温和后，芝商所的工具显示，市场认为美联储9月会议降息25个基点的可能性为 99.9%。财长贝森特表示，鉴于近期就业数据疲软，他认为美联储可能大幅降息50个基点。贝森特称， 美联储去年9月就曾以就业市场疲软的担忧作为较大幅度降息的理由。香港第一金市场部负责人陈生： GOLDFX009 （微）个人分析认为金价上涨是因为受美元走弱和美债收益率下降提振。温和的美国通胀 数据巩固了美联储9月降息的预期，并推高对今年晚些时候进一步宽松政策的押注。现货金上涨0.3%， 收报每盎司3354.43美元附近。 技术面： 第一金PPLI现货黄金：从盘面的黄金1小时走势图中（如下图所示），从波浪来 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing intense competition with a delicate balance in price movements, as spot gold struggles to maintain upward momentum around $3,375, facing selling pressure [1] - Optimistic expectations regarding US-China trade relations and positive signals from US-Russia discussions are boosting risk appetite, which in turn suppresses safe-haven demand for precious metals [1] Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices continue to rise, trading at $38.58 per ounce, with a gain of approximately 0.28%, approaching recent highs [1] - The silver market is showing strong momentum, with potential targets at $39.00 and historical highs of $39.53, while a break below $38.00 could pressure bullish positions [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - US Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rates should be 150-175 basis points lower, indicating a potential for a 50 basis point cut starting in September [2] - There is skepticism among analysts regarding the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in September, with the need for a weak non-farm payroll report to support such a move [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent high of approximately $3,375 may act as a resistance level for gold, with potential upward targets at $3,400 and further resistance at $3,409-$3,410 [3] - If gold prices fall below the support level of $3,242, it may lead to further declines towards the $3,300 mark, indicating a shift towards a bearish outlook [3] Group 5: Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver prices have reached a three-week high of $38.65, with buyers clearing previous resistance levels and eyeing a test of $40.00 [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates bullish momentum, but there is a risk of divergence in the MACD, which could lead to a decline if prices fall below $38.00 [4]

智通财经APP获悉，8月14日，香港天文台已于早上11时10分改发红雨，并于12时10分改发黄色暴雨警 告信号。香港黄金交易所宣布，港金公开喊价巿场下午复巿。 ...