Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices continue to rise due to geopolitical events in North America, increasing investor concerns over the US dollar and treasury bonds, benefiting from dollar depreciation and safe-haven demand [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, central bank gold purchases and the increase in gold ETF holdings are expected to support gold prices [1] - For silver, the London silver leasing rate has decreased, but US silver inventory is declining rapidly [1] Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to a "hard shortage" and "soft coercion," with supply disruptions from strikes in Chile affecting major copper mines [2] - The market is also reacting to potential changes in US monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate expectations [2] - Aluminum prices are maintaining high levels due to strong macroeconomic performance, with daily production increasing from new projects in China and Indonesia [2] Group 3: Energy Metals and Rare Earths - Lithium production is experiencing seasonal declines, with continuous inventory depletion, while battery product export tax rebates are expected to decrease, potentially front-loading battery demand [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supply, while cobalt companies are extending their reach into downstream electric new energy sectors [3] - Rare earth prices have slightly retreated, but overall market sentiment is stabilizing, with limited downside potential for prices [3] Group 4: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are reaching new highs, supported by extreme tightness in supply, with strategic value being reassessed due to its applications in defense and high-end manufacturing [3] - Uranium supply remains rigid, and the development of nuclear power is expected to create a persistent supply-demand gap, leading to potential price increases [3]

| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | | | 铝 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | な☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ☆☆☆ | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 上周五沪铜高开至短期均线上方，受贵金属交投情绪及美元疲软显著推动。供应瑞,市场关注智利小型铜矿罢 工与某承包运输公司频繁封路对大型铜矿经营影响。印尼Grasberg预计下半年 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market with a net inflow of nearly 15 billion yuan, ranking first among 31 Shenwan primary industries [1] - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF (159876) saw its price surge over 5.1% during the day, with a current increase of 3.85% and a transaction volume of 181 million yuan, setting historical highs in both volume and price [1] - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has attracted a total of 569 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - On January 25, Luoyang Molybdenum Company completed the acquisition of a Brazilian gold mine, expected to produce 6 to 8 tons of gold this year, with strong profitability and a short investment return period [2] - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to maintain high profitability for an extended period, driven by sustained demand, and domestic companies are undervalued compared to their overseas counterparts [3] - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF has reached a new scale of 1.892 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the non-ferrous metal index in the market [3] Group 3 - Several stocks in the non-ferrous sector, including Vanadium Titanium Co., Silver Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold, have hit the daily limit, with significant gains observed in other stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum and Shandong Gold [4] - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, and lithium, allowing investors to capture various market cycles [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper in the medium - term, expecting supply constraints and demand growth. For aluminum, overseas active restocking supports prices. Zinc has potential for a catch - up rise, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities. Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, with a policy - fundamentals game. Stainless steel follows nickel prices. Lead is expected to oscillate in a certain range, and short - term short - selling is recommended at high prices. Tin can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter, but may face downward fluctuations in the second half of 2026. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. Lithium carbonate may see a spot - futures resonance market [1][2][7] Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices tested the 99,000 support level during the week and rose sharply on Friday night. The US's ability to siphon inventory is waning, but global consumption is strong, and copper has strong demand support. In China, pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster, but post - festival destocking may also be rapid [1] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the change in spot import profit was - 91.50, and the LME inventory increased by 3,450 [1] Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Aluminum ingot prices increased, and the LME 0 - 3M spread returned to negative. Aluminum ingot basis and downstream processing fees are low, but apparent demand has rebounded. Auto consumption in December was below expectations, but photovoltaic installation increased, and overseas restocking supports prices [2] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, Shanghai aluminum ingot prices increased by 370, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,000 [2] Zinc - **Price Movement**: Zinc prices increased. Supply - side TC is declining, and production is expected to increase in January. Demand is seasonally weak domestically, and the export window was open in December. The market is optimistic about zinc's catch - up rise, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [5][7] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, Shanghai zinc ingot prices increased by 310, and the LME inventory decreased by 200 [5][6] Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices increased. Supply decreased slightly, demand is weak, and domestic inventory increased slightly. There is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals due to Indonesian policies [11][12] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the change in spot import earnings was - 2,060.88, and the LME inventory decreased by 768 [11] Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Supply is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and costs are stable. Inventory decreased slightly, and prices mainly follow nickel prices [13][14] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, 304 cold - rolled coil prices decreased by 100 [13][14] Lead - **Price Movement**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600. Supply is increasing due to high profits, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Short - term short - selling at high prices is recommended [15][18] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the Shanghai - Henan price difference increased by 25, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,250 [15][18] Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated upward. Supply recovery in the first quarter is uncertain, and demand has different trends in different sectors. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter, but may face downward pressure in the second half of 2026 [21] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the change in spot import earnings was - 17,252.19, and the LME inventory increased by 40 [21] Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: Industrial silicon supply is shrinking, and short - term supply and demand are close to balance. Prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [23] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 5, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 96 [23] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: Lithium carbonate prices increased. The market was driven by production - halt expectations, and short - term supply and demand are close to balance. A spot - futures resonance market may occur [25] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 6,500, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 730 [25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal prices [2] - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend due to geopolitical events in North America, concerns over the US dollar and treasury bonds, and increased central bank gold purchases [6] - Copper prices are anticipated to remain strong due to supply disruptions in Chile and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong performance supported by macroeconomic factors and increased production capacity [6] - Energy metals show strong demand with continuous inventory depletion, particularly lithium, despite seasonal production declines [6] Summary by Sections Supply Disruptions and Opportunities - Gold prices have risen significantly, with SHFE gold increasing by 8.00% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram and COMEX gold by 8.44% to 4,983.10 USD per ounce [9] - Silver prices have also surged, with SHFE silver up 10.62% to 24,965 CNY per kilogram and COMEX silver up 16.63% to 103.26 USD per ounce [10] Industry and Stock Performance - The SW non-ferrous metals index increased by 6.03% last week, outperforming major indices [16] - The report highlights that industrial metal prices have shown mixed performance, with copper and aluminum prices increasing while lead and zinc prices have decreased [25] Metal Prices and Inventory - Copper prices rose to 101,340 CNY per ton on SHFE, reflecting a 0.57% increase, while LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton [12] - Aluminum prices on SHFE increased by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, supported by improved production and demand [11] Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks macroeconomic indicators, including CPI and PPI, which are crucial for understanding the broader economic environment affecting metal prices [29][44] Precious Metals - The report notes that low inventory levels and expectations of liquidity easing are driving precious metal prices higher [50] - Central bank gold purchases and ETF holdings are expected to support gold prices in 2026 [6] Copper Market - Supply disruptions in Chile, including strikes at major copper mines, are expected to support copper prices [12] - The report anticipates that copper prices may experience fluctuations based on macroeconomic developments, particularly related to interest rates [65] Energy Metals - Lithium inventory continues to decline, indicating strong demand, while the market is cautious about production disruptions from key mines [13] - The cobalt sector is facing high prices due to tight raw material supply, with companies extending their operations into downstream sectors [13]

Macro - The US Q3 real GDP was slightly revised up to 4.4%, marking the fastest growth in two years, with core PCE inflation stable at 2.9% [3] - The November PCE price index in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month rise of 0.2%, aligning with expectations, indicating stable inflation and robust consumer spending [3] - The resilience of the US economy and stable job market have led to significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with low probability for a cut in January [3] - Tensions in Greenland have exacerbated rifts between the US and Europe, leading some European sovereign funds to sell US debt, raising concerns about "dollar credit" [3] Copper Market - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining tightness in the copper concentrate market, which is a strong support factor [4] - Estimated electrolytic copper production for January is 1.1636 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% but a year-on-year increase of 14.7% due to tight copper concentrate supply [4] - In December, net imports of refined copper in China fell by 48.44% year-on-year to 201,800 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month-on-month to 239,000 tons [4] - As of January 23, global visible copper inventories increased by 54,000 tons to 1.091 million tons, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4] - Despite high copper prices leading to weaker consumption, the market sentiment remains bullish, suggesting a volatile upward trend in copper prices [5][20] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Indonesian nickel ore premiums remain at $25.5 per wet ton, while Philippine nickel ore premiums are at $8.0 per wet ton [6] - January refined nickel production is expected to increase by 18.5% month-on-month to 37,200 tons, while Chinese nickel pig iron production is expected to decrease by 1% [6] - The demand for new energy materials has increased, with weekly ternary material production rising to 18,256 tons [7] - The Indonesian government has indicated a potential 10-15% decrease in nickel ore production compared to last year, which may impact market dynamics [8] Aluminum Market - Alumina futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract settling at 2,724 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1% [9] - The average operating rate of processing enterprises has increased by 0.7% to 60.9% as downstream sectors prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival [10] - Inventory levels for alumina and aluminum ingots have shown mixed trends, with alumina inventories decreasing while aluminum ingot inventories are increasing [10][11] - The market sentiment is supported by pre-holiday stocking, but the sustainability of price rebounds remains uncertain due to ongoing production cuts [11][26] Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon futures are showing strong fluctuations, with a weekly increase of 2.5% [27] - The production of polysilicon has decreased, with P-type prices down to 48,000 yuan/ton and N-type down to 55,000 yuan/ton [28] - Supply disruptions in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan are raising concerns about future production levels [29] - The market is expected to face pressure from high inventory levels and potential demand saturation, despite short-term support for polysilicon prices [29] Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production has decreased by 388 tons to 22,217 tons, with various sources of lithium showing declines [30] - Demand for ternary materials has increased, with production rising to 18,256 tons, while inventory levels have also increased [30] - Concerns over supply disruptions in Jiangxi and rising costs due to overseas tax policies are influencing market dynamics [31] - The market is expected to experience strong price fluctuations in the short term, with a focus on downstream performance and inventory movements [31]

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in views among international investment banks regarding copper prices indicates a potential volatility in the non-ferrous metal sector, with some institutions optimistic while others express caution [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts a bullish outlook for copper, forecasting a price of $12,500 per ton by Q2 [2] - UBS shares a similar optimistic view, projecting a year-end price of $13,000 [2] - Citigroup also maintains a positive stance, expecting prices to exceed $13,000 in Q2 [2] - Conversely, Goldman Sachs advises caution, suggesting a potential drop to $11,000 per ton in December [2] - Capital Economics leans towards a bearish outlook, indicating a possible price decline [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Copper prices surged from $11,000 in early December to over $13,300, surpassing some optimistic forecasts [3] - Goldman Sachs warns that the current high prices have attracted speculative investments, which may suppress short-term actual consumption [5] - The speculative enthusiasm for copper is linked to concerns over potential tariffs following the U.S. Section 232 investigation, which led to significant imports of refined copper [6] Group 3: Long-term Demand Drivers - The fundamental narrative supporting copper prices revolves around its role as a "green metal" and "AI metal," driven by global infrastructure upgrades, electric vehicle adoption, and AI data center construction [7] - The ongoing demand for copper is expected to remain strong, as long as the underlying growth story persists [7] - The non-ferrous metal ETF funds track A-share listed companies rather than futures prices, meaning the performance of mining and refining companies will directly benefit from rising copper prices [7][8] Group 4: Investment Considerations - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund tracks a diversified index, with copper comprising 33% of the index, followed by aluminum and gold, indicating a balanced exposure to various metals [8] - Given the current global economic landscape and rising risk aversion, the non-ferrous metal ETF fund is expected to maintain a strong investment rationale throughout the year [8]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 19.8 万人修正为 19.9 万人。美国第三季度 实际 GDP 年化季率终值 4.4%，预期 4.30%，前值 4.30%。美 国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率终值 3.5%，前值 3.5%。美 国第三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率终值 2.9%，预期 2.9% ，前值 2.90% 。美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数月率 0.2%，预期 0.20%。美国 11 月个人支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.50%。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Beta factor and valuation factor achieved positive returns of 0.66% and 0.48% respectively, while the market capitalization factor recorded a negative return of -0.80%, indicating a small-cap market performance [5] - The quant stock selection strategy yielded significant excess returns, with the PB-ROE-50 combination achieving excess returns of 1.38%, 2.54%, and 4.23% for the CSI 500, CSI 800, and the overall market respectively [5] Group 2: REITs Market - The secondary market prices of publicly listed REITs in China showed an upward trend, with the CSI REITs closing at 806.72 and the CSI REITs total return index at 1047.51, reflecting weekly returns of 2.09% and 2.17% respectively [5] - Compared to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked as follows: Gold > Convertible Bonds > REITs > A-shares > Crude Oil > Pure Bonds > US Stocks [5] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The 2025 annual report from the banking industry indicated an increase in the scale of wealth management products by nearly 3.3 trillion, achieving a year-on-year increase despite a high base [6] - "Fixed income +" wealth management products have become a significant growth point, while the average yield on wealth management products has dropped below 2% [6] - The proportion of wealth management products in deposit asset allocation rose to 28.2%, with the market share of wealth management companies exceeding 90% [6] Group 4: Copper Industry Analysis - The TC spot price reached a new low, indicating continued tightness in copper concentrate procurement, while cable manufacturers' operating rates increased week-on-week [8] - Despite the rise in copper prices, domestic social inventory continues to grow, which may suppress demand [8] - The outlook for 2026 remains optimistic with a tight supply-demand balance expected to support copper prices [8] Group 5: Chemical Industry Trends - The price of spandex has seen a significant increase of 1000 yuan/ton due to pressure from losses, marking a turning point in the spandex market [8] - Spandex prices have dropped from a historical high of 83,750 yuan/ton in 2021 to 23,600 yuan/ton in early January 2026, representing a decline of 72% [8]