Market Overview - On December 31, 2025, U.S. stock indices closed lower, marking the end of the trading year with the Dow Jones down 0.63% at 48,063.29 points, the S&P 500 down 0.74% at 6,845.5 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.76% at 23,241.99 points, all recording four consecutive declines [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the Dow Jones increased by 12.97%, the S&P 500 by 16.39%, and the Nasdaq by 20.36%, achieving three consecutive annual gains [1] Silver Market - On December 31, precious metals experienced a significant pullback, with New York silver futures dropping by 8.91% and London silver spot prices falling by 6.08% [4] Nike Stock Activity - Nike's stock surged by 4.17% to $63.74 per share, with a total market capitalization of $94.4 billion, following substantial stock purchases by company insiders [7] - Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, increased his stake in Nike by acquiring approximately 50,000 shares, resulting in a 90% increase in his ownership [9] - Another board member, Robert Holmes Swan, also increased his holdings by 8,700 shares, raising his stake by 24% [9] - Nike's CEO, Elliott Hill, purchased about 16,400 shares in a transaction valued at $1 million, increasing his personal stake by over 7% [9] Offshore Renminbi Performance - The offshore renminbi reached a 15-month high, trading above 6.98 on December 31, 2025, and was reported at approximately 6.79530 at the time of writing [10]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market closed on December 31, 2025, with all three major indices recording declines, marking the end of the trading year. The Dow Jones fell by 0.63% to 48,063.29 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.74% to 6,845.5 points, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.76% to 23,241.99 points, resulting in four consecutive days of losses. However, for the entire year, the Dow rose by 12.97%, the S&P 500 increased by 16.39%, and the Nasdaq gained 20.36%, all achieving three consecutive annual gains [1][2]. Precious Metals - On December 31, 2025, precious metals experienced a significant pullback, with New York silver futures plummeting by 8.91% and London silver spot prices dropping by 6.08%. Gold futures fell by over 1%, while platinum and palladium also saw substantial declines [5]. Nike Stock Activity - Following a year of poor performance, Nike's stock surged after internal stakeholders, including CEO Tim Cook, made substantial purchases of the company's shares. Nike's stock rose by 4.17% to $63.74 per share, with a total market capitalization of $94.4 billion. Despite this increase, the stock remains at only 40% of its historical high [9][10]. Executive Stock Purchases - Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, increased his stake in Nike by acquiring approximately 50,000 shares, resulting in a 90% increase in his ownership. Additionally, Robert Holmes Swan, a member of Nike's board, purchased about 8,700 shares, raising his stake by 24%. Nike's CEO, Elliott Hill, also bought around 16,400 shares in a transaction valued at $1 million, increasing his personal stake by over 7% [12].

2025年大宗商品市场呈现历史性分化格局。贵金属引领史诗级牛市，白银涨超140%创有史以来最大年度涨幅，黄金涨超60%，录得1979年以来最 强表现。铜价涨超40%创下自2009年来的最大年度涨幅，年内多次刷新历史高位。因供需格局改善，碳酸锂全年累计涨幅超过50%。能源与农产 品则深陷熊市，原油全年跌超15%，录得2020年以来最大年度跌幅；可可暴跌近乎腰斩。 2025年大宗商品市场呈现分化格局，金银等贵金属走出了史诗级牛市，工业金属强劲反弹，而能源和农产品则陷入多年低谷。 贵金属市场创造了历史性涨势。白银涨超146%创下有史以来最大年度涨幅，黄金上涨超过60%，录得1979年以来最强表现。贵金属的狂飙主要受 美联储降息预期、地缘政治冲突、央行持续购金以及交易所交易基金持仓增加推动。 基本金属市场同样表现强劲。伦铜全年上涨近44%，创2009年以来最大年度涨幅，并在年末触及12960美元的历史高位。 相比之下，能源市场走势略显失意。WTI原油全年均下跌超18%，录得2020年以来最大年度跌幅，非OPEC+国家的产量增长与全球经济增长放缓 的预期，共同加剧了市场对供应持续过剩的担忧，彻底压制了油价。 与此同时， ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a remarkable year, with gold and silver prices declining on the last trading day of 2025, yet maintaining the highest annual gains in over four decades [1] Price Performance - Spot gold prices hovered around $4,320 per ounce, while silver prices fell to $71 per ounce [1] - The year-end volatility saw significant price fluctuations, with a sharp decline on Monday followed by a rebound on Tuesday, and another drop on Wednesday [1] Market Dynamics - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group raised margin requirements twice due to the substantial price swings in the two precious metals [1] - Increased demand for safe-haven assets driven by escalating geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts supported the strong performance of gold and silver [1] Economic Context - High inflation and rising debt burdens in developed economies have raised market concerns, leading to what is termed "currency devaluation trades," which further propelled precious metal prices [1]

北京时间1月1日凌晨，美股周三尾盘小幅走低，标普500指数可能录得连续第四个交易日下滑。美股交 易进入2025年的最后一个交易日，标普500指数今年有望录得17%的涨幅。 道指跌151.69点，跌幅为0.31%，报48215.37点；纳指跌86.77点，跌幅为0.37%，报23332.31点；标普 500指数跌23.28点，跌幅为0.34%，报6872.96点。 主要股指均有可能迎来连续第四个交易日下跌。但尽管如此，标普500指数仍有望锁定全年17%的涨 幅，这是其连续第三年实现两位数的年度涨幅。 纳斯达克综合指数受益于人工智能热潮，今年迄今已上涨21%。 道指在2025年上涨13%，其涨幅落后的主要原因是其科技股的权重较低而略受拖累。 这标志着市场从今年4月初美国总统特朗普宣布全面提高关税引发的暴跌之后实现了显著反弹。今年4月 特朗普突然宣布关税措施后，标普500指数一度濒临进入熊市，较2月高点下跌近19%，并自2024年4月 以来首次收于5000点下方。 尽管如此，近期美股的下跌仍有些令人担忧，因为一年中最后五个交易日以及下一年的前两个交易日通 常是季节性表现强劲的时期——常被称为"圣诞老人涨势"（San ...

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent price fluctuations driven by investor behavior and upcoming adjustments in commodity index weights [1] Group 1: Price Movements - On the 30th, international gold prices rebounded, reaching above $4,400 per ounce, following a sell-off the previous day [1] - As of 22:32 Beijing time on the 30th, gold futures for February delivery were priced at $4,402.7 per ounce, reflecting a 1.36% increase [1] - Silver futures for March delivery rose to $75.595 per ounce, marking a 7.24% increase, while platinum futures for February delivery reached $2,253.1 per ounce, up by 6.27% [1] Group 2: Future Risks - Analysts indicate that precious metal prices are likely to face substantial volatility in the future [1] - In January, Bloomberg Commodity Index and S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index will adjust the weightings of various commodities, including precious metals [1] - Due to significant price increases over the past two years, precious metals are expected to see reduced weightings in these indices, leading to potential sell-offs by passive funds tracking these indices, which could exert downward pressure on gold and silver futures [1]

如何看待贵金属的波动？20251231 摘要 本轮贵金属牛市中，白银表现出更高的波动性和加速上涨形态，白银 ETF 波动率指数接近 2011 年峰值。黄金表现相对稳健，波动率抬升幅 度较小，未创新高。金银呈现不同的弹性特征。 当前金银比已收敛至 55-57 附近，回到 2014 年以前水平，处于过去 20 多年中性偏低位置。与前几轮不同，本轮金银比收敛并未伴随全球制 造业 PMI 指数显著反弹，而是处于企稳状态。 白银已连续 5 年出现供应缺口，交易所显性库存自 2020 年以来显著下 行。四大交易所白银行库存约为 4.28 万吨，超六成被白银 ETF 锁定， 可流通库存极低，放大了多逼空风险。 COMEX 交割需求大增，12 月交割量创历史第五位，多逼空题材被炒作。 伦敦市场面临低库存压力，租赁利率维持高位。国内交易所库存降至近 十年最低水平，各市场多逼空题材发酵。 伦敦白银现货市场处于低库存状态，高频租赁利率数据表明紧张局面加 剧。国内白银现货较境外升水幅度超过 1,000 元每千克，可能吸引境外 白银回流国内，加剧海外现货偏紧格局。 白银行情背后存在供应缺口问题。根据世界白银协会的数据，截至 2024 ...

特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议，仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损，本公众 号及作者概不承担任何责任。 集思录(www.jisilu.cn)是一个以数据为本的投资理财社区，专注于新股、可转债、债券、封闭 基金等数据服务。我们的理念是在保证本金安全的前提下，使资产获得稳健增长。 快捷查询： 搜索公众号"jisilu8"添加我们 看一眼今年各指数涨幅 | 指数涨幅统计(刷新) 历史数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 本日涨幅 | 本周涨幅 | 本月涨幅 | 本季涨幅 | 本年涨幅 | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 3203.17 | -1.23% | -1.25% | 4.93% | -1.08% | 49.57% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | 1636.70 | -0.36% | 0.15% | 3.32% | -4.68% | 46.30% | | 899050 | 北证50 | 1440.43 | -0.70% | -1.54% | 3.80 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 5% over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The international gold price experienced a slight decline to $4,514 per ounce as of December 30, 2025, after reaching a historical high of $4,526 on December 24, 2025, but still recorded an annual increase of 65%-70%, marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [1]. - Short-term technical corrections are attributed to factors such as easing geopolitical risks, profit-taking pressures, and differing monetary policy expectations [1][2]. - In the medium to long term, factors such as the U.S. debt crisis, a weak dollar, and a rate-cutting cycle provide fundamental support for gold prices, with central banks continuing to purchase gold and increasing investment demand for gold ETFs [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The market performance of the non-ferrous metals index and the CSI 300 index showed significant fluctuations, with a notable annual increase in gold prices [1]. Short-term Factors - Geopolitical risk reduction, profit-taking at year-end, and differing expectations regarding monetary policy are influencing short-term price movements [1][2]. Medium to Long-term Factors - The ongoing U.S. debt crisis, weak dollar, and anticipated rate cuts are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. - Central banks are expected to continue their gold purchases, and investment demand for gold ETFs is likely to increase due to wealth effects [2][4]. Silver Market Dynamics - Recent volatility in silver prices, driven by its industrial properties and low domestic inventory in China, has attracted significant capital inflow, leading to price surges [3]. - The potential for a price correction in silver exists, while gold prices are expected to rise [3]. Investment Recommendations - Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for gold assets remains positive due to macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks [4]. - Gold stocks have not seen significant price increases in line with physical gold and silver, indicating a potential for stability amidst market fluctuations [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [6] Core Insights - The precious metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.8%, with lithium performing the best at 11.4% and rare earths performing the worst at -3% [2][15] - Gold and silver prices showed a weekly fluctuation of 1.5% and 13% respectively on the SHFE [3][23] - The latest gold-silver ratio is 58.4%, indicating a significant drop, while the gold-oil ratio stands at 75% and the gold-copper ratio at 763 [3][33] Summary by Sections Precious Metals Market Review - The precious metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.8% [15] Precious Metals Related Indicators Tracking - The SHFE gold price fluctuated by 1.5% and the SHFE silver price by 13% last week [3][23] - The U.S. November CPI decreased to 2.7% year-on-year, while the core CPI for September was slightly higher at 2.8% [3][26] - The U.S. dollar index as of December 30 was 98.2, continuing to decline [3][26] Investment Recommendations - Recent surges in silver prices are attributed to its industrial properties and improving economic expectations, with domestic silver inventories at historical lows [5][50] - Short-term price corrections for silver are anticipated, while gold prices are expected to rise [5][51] - Long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to weak dollar conditions and ongoing geopolitical risks [5][51] Major Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for major companies in the sector, indicating varying performance metrics across different firms [52]