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现货运价延续跌势,船司提前开启旺季宣涨
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 07:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The container shipping market in September was in the traditional off - season, with spot freight rates falling rapidly and breaking through the first - half low. As the long - term contract season approaches, some shipping companies have successively raised their spot quotes for the second half of October. The market should focus on the implementation of shipping companies' price increase announcements and their flight suspension plans during the long - term contract price - support season at the end of the year, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping volume and rhythm [3][4][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In the off - season, spot freight rates were in a rapid decline channel. In September, the spot freight rate broke through the first - half low, with the late - September freight rate center dropping to around 1300 - 1600 US dollars/FEU, and the difference between major shipping companies narrowing to around 200 US dollars/FEU. As of September 19, 2025, the SCFI European line had dropped to 1052 US dollars/TEU. Recently, major shipping companies have successively announced price increases for the second half of October, with the target around 1800 - 2000 US dollars/FEU, and CMA has pre - released an online price of around 3100 US dollars/FEU for November [3] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Demand side: In September, the cargo volume continued to decline seasonally, and shipping companies still faced cargo - collection pressure. Trump's statement about a new round of strong tariffs may affect shipping volume and rhythm. Supply side: The average weekly capacity in September/October/November 2025 was 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The capacity in October decreased slightly compared with last week's schedule, while the capacity in September and November increased slightly. Freight rate side: In September, the off - season spot freight was still in a decline channel due to weak cargo volume. With the spot gradually bottoming out and the expectation of the long - term contract season from November to December, some shipping companies have successively raised their spot quotes for the second half of October. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' flight suspension plans during the long - term contract price - support season before the end of the year and the impact of tariff rhythm [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The trading logic of the EC2512 contract has switched, and long positions should be held. Arbitrage: Conduct low - level rolling operations for the October - December reverse spread, and hold long positions for the February - April positive spread [6] 3.2 Market Review - In September, the container shipping market entered the traditional off - season. Under the background of increasing cargo - collection pressure on shipping companies and declining ship loading rates, the falling spot freight rates drove the EC2510 contract to continuously test the lower limit. Then, with the start of a new price - support season, it stopped falling and rebounded. The EC contract generally continued to decline in September. When the spot quote fell below the first - half low, the decline exceeded market expectations. Under the pessimistic sentiment, the valuation of the October contract continued to be revised downwards, and the EC2510 contract fell below 1050 points within the month. However, with the approach of the long - term contract season, the expectation of price increases drove the December contract to repair the discount upwards, and some shipping companies' increase in the October spot quote supported the upward movement of the contract price, with the valuation of the October contract expected to be revised upwards. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase announcements [8] 3.3 Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Freight Rate and Price Increase - In September, shipping companies continued to lower freight rates, and the spot freight rate center dropped rapidly, breaking through the first - half low within the month. As the long - term contract season approaches, major shipping companies have successively raised their October spot quotes, and the decline of the October spot freight rate is expected to slow down. The average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) in September was 1346.92 points (as of the week of September 19), a month - on - month decrease of 8.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.68%. As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive SCFI container freight index was 1198.21 points, a month - on - month decrease of 14.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.05%. The global main - route capacity has increased slightly. With the arrival of the National Day Golden Week, major shipping companies have successively announced flight suspension plans, with a suspension rate of about 15% in October [18][19][37] 3.3.2 New Ship Delivery and Order - In August, the global new container ship delivery volume was 163,300 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 19.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.2%. In August 2025, the number of new container ship orders was 27, with a total of 162,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 51.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 77.8%. As of September 2025, the global container shipping capacity reached 32.309 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. From September to December 2025, nearly 477,000 TEU of container ships over 8000 TEU are to be delivered, including about 333,800 TEU of ships over 12,000 TEU [48] 3.3.3 Idle Capacity - In September, the idle capacity increased slightly compared with last month. Shipping companies chose to slow down to digest the excess capacity. As of September 22, 2025, the global idle container shipping capacity was 633,000 TEU, an increase of 1.2% compared with the same period last month and 4.5% compared with the same period last year [63] 3.3.4 Port and Shipping Conditions - As of September 24, 2025, the number of container ships bypassing the Suez Canal on the Europe - Mediterranean route was 271, accounting for about 70%, and the bypassing was still in a stable state. The global port situation remained stable. Although some European ports were congested due to extreme weather in September, the problem was gradually diluted against the background of declining cargo volume. As of September 22, 2025, the Clarksons global container ship congestion index was 30.6%, showing a significant decline compared with August. The average waiting time for global container ships (over 8000 TEU, 7 - day moving average) was 7.92 hours as of September 21, 2025, a decrease of 2.7 hours compared with the end of August. The Poland - Belarus border port reopened on the early morning of September 25 [76][84][85] 3.3.5 China's Export Situation - In August, China's exports showed resilience, with the goods trade continuing to grow steadily, but there were obvious differentiations among different products and trading partners. In August, China's total export volume was 321.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, with the growth rate slowing down compared with July. The main reason was the expanded decline in exports to the US, which dragged down the total exports. However, the diversification of China's trade buffered the external economic and trade environment, supporting the positive year - on - year growth of exports in August. Specifically, China's exports to the US decreased by 33.1% year - on - year in August, with the decline expanding by 11.4 percentage points compared with July. Exports to ASEAN increased by 22.5% year - on - year, and exports to the EU increased by 10.4% year - on - year, accounting for 16.1% of China's total exports. In the first eight months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 10.6 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, accounting for more than 60% of the total export value, with obvious growth in the exports of integrated circuits and automobiles, both with increases of more than 10%. The growth rate of labor - intensive products decreased by 1.5% [111][113] 3.3.6 European Economic Situation - In September, the European manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell back into the contraction range, indicating that the foundation of the European economic recovery was not solid and the demand was still fragile. The eurozone's composite PMI in September rose slightly to 51.2, remaining in the expansion range for many consecutive months, mainly due to the good performance of the service industry. The service industry PMI in September was 51.4, slightly exceeding expectations, but the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell below the boom - bust line to 49.5, reflecting the overall weak performance of the European manufacturing industry. Germany's economy grew driven by the service industry, with the composite PMI in September rising significantly to 52.4, showing a strong recovery momentum, but its manufacturing industry remained weak, with the manufacturing PMI in September at 48.5, and there was still production pressure in the future. France's economic situation was the opposite of Germany's. In September, its economic prosperity further deteriorated, with the output of manufacturing and service enterprises declining monthly and the decline intensifying. The manufacturing PMI in September fell to 48.1, and the service industry PMI fell to 48.9 [128] 3.3.7 Container Shipping Volume - In July 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe was 1.7584 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 8.7 percentage points compared with June. The container shipping volume from Asia to North America was 2.124 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 3%, with the decline remaining the same as last month. The container shipping volume from Asia to the world was 10.355 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 6.8 percentage points compared with June. The global container shipping volume was 16.575 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 2.5 percentage points compared with June [132] 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Freight rate: The off - season spot freight rate is still in a rapid decline channel. In September, with sufficient capacity supply, the spot freight rate broke through the first - half low within the month. The current late - September freight rate center has dropped to around 1300 - 1600 US dollars/FEU, and the difference between major shipping companies has narrowed to around 200 US dollars/FEU. As of September 19, 2025, the SCFI European line has dropped to 1052 US dollars/TEU. Recently, major shipping companies have successively announced price increases for the second half of October, with the target around 1800 - 2000 US dollars/FEU, and CMA has pre - released an online price of around 3100 US dollars/FEU for November. Supply and demand: On the demand side, the cargo volume continued to decline seasonally in September, and shipping companies still faced cargo - collection pressure. Recently, Trump said that a new round of strong tariffs would be implemented, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies on shipping volume and rhythm. On the supply side, the average weekly capacity in September/October/November 2025 was 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The capacity in October decreased slightly compared with last week's schedule, while the capacity in September and November increased slightly. Strategy: Unilateral: The trading logic of the EC2512 contract has switched, and long positions should be held. Arbitrage: Conduct low - level rolling operations for the October - December reverse spread, and hold long positions for the February - April positive spread [138][139]
中谷物流跌2.01%,成交额1.96亿元,主力资金净流出93.13万元
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-09-26 06:10
9月26日,中谷物流盘中下跌2.01%,截至14:03,报11.24元/股,成交1.96亿元,换手率0.82%,总市值 236.05亿元。 资金流向方面,主力资金净流出93.13万元,特大单买入857.07万元,占比4.38%,卖出830.88万元,占 比4.24%;大单买入2428.09万元,占比12.40%,卖出2547.40万元,占比13.01%。 截至6月30日,中谷物流股东户数2.74万,较上期增加32.52%;人均流通股76636股,较上期减少 24.54%。2025年1月-6月,中谷物流实现营业收入53.38亿元,同比减少6.99%;归母净利润10.72亿元, 同比增长41.59%。 分红方面,中谷物流A股上市后累计派现81.27亿元。近三年,累计派现43.86亿元。 机构持仓方面,截止2025年6月30日,中谷物流十大流通股东中,华泰柏瑞上证红利ETF(510880)位 居第三大流通股东,持股4557.78万股,相比上期减少931.25万股。国投证券股份有限公司位居第四大流 通股东,持股2915.17万股,为新进股东。香港中央结算有限公司位居第八大流通股东,持股1927.97万 股,相比上期减 ...
全球海事创新的“中国智慧”:法律与科技双轮驱动
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 05:48
地缘政治重构航运网络,人工智能颠覆传统模式,碳中和重塑产业规则……全球海事正面临多重挑战。在这样的变局中,海事法律与制度创新成为推动高端 航运服务业发展的核心引擎。作为全球航运大国,中国正在积极推动海事仲裁、智能合约、法律科技等现代法律服务能力建设,为国际航运规则体系注 入"中国智慧"。 近期,由北外滩国际航运论坛组委办联合第一财经共同出品的《2025北外滩国际航运论坛·高端访谈》第三期节目专访上海海事大学的校长初北平教授。他 在接受第一财经专访时表示,2024年初学校正式启动"云端海事大学"建设项目以来,在制度层与技术层的双轨创新下,积极参与海事仲裁制度创新与智能仲 裁平台建设,关注制度规则创新与法律体系完善,为我国航运法治体系和人才培养注入数字化新动能。 教育改革背后折射的是行业需求的变化:目前我国拥有全球规模最大的海运船队,建成了全球最大的世界级港口群,国际海运量占全球近三分之一,海洋经 济总量持续攀升。而在航运中心建设方面,"2025新华·波罗的海国际航运中心发展指数"显示,上海已连续六年位居国际航运中心第三名,"中国方阵"整体 稳中有进,在前20名中占据7席。随着我国从"航运大国"向"航运强国"迈进 ...
航运衍生品数据日报-20250926
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 05:02
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 II GERIK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/9/26 | | | | | 数据来源:Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | E | 现值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 1193 | 2557 | 1052 | | Alla | 前值 | 1398 | 1125 | 2370 | 1349 | 3307 | 1154 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -14.31% | -0.45% | -30.97% | -11.56% | -22.68% | -8 ...
“我在‘十四五’这五年 上市公司在行动”系列报道 | 中远海科:向航运数字生态赋能者目标持续迈进
Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry is undergoing a significant digital transformation, with China Ocean Shipping Group's COSCO Shipping Technology (002401) leading the way in redefining the future of shipping through proactive innovation and digitalization [1] Group 1: Digital Transformation in Shipping - The shipping industry, traditionally conservative, is now embracing digitalization as a core tool for optimizing routes, saving fuel, and reducing carbon emissions [1][2] - COSCO Shipping Technology aims to become a digital ecosystem enabler in the shipping sector, focusing on high-quality development and the vision of building a world-class shipping technology enterprise during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][3] Group 2: Challenges in Data Collaboration - The shipping chain involves multiple entities like shipping companies, ports, and freight forwarders, leading to independent data systems and standards, which create data collaboration challenges [2] - The lack of unified data standards and insufficient system interface openness hinder efficient interconnectivity within the industry [2] Group 3: Initiatives for Digital Infrastructure - COSCO Shipping Technology launched the "Build Cloud, Gather Data, Create Intelligence, and Promote Industry" initiative in 2019 to address common industry issues and establish a "new infrastructure" for shipping [3] - The company is focused on building a "trusted data space" to ensure data circulation is traceable and ownership is clear, transforming data into a valuable digital commodity [4] Group 4: AI and Innovation - COSCO Shipping Technology is leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) models, such as the "Hi-Dolphin" model, to enhance operational efficiency and automate complex processes in the shipping industry [5][6] - The "Hi-Dolphin" model integrates industry knowledge with data capabilities, achieving a shift from data retrieval by humans to data serving humans [8] Group 5: Industry Collaboration and Standards - The company is actively participating in global standard-setting and alliance building to promote digital transformation across the entire shipping industry [9] - COSCO Shipping Technology is committed to enhancing safety management, reducing emissions, and improving supply chain resilience through its technological capabilities and digital platforms [9] Group 6: Future Goals - Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan, COSCO Shipping Technology aims to capitalize on opportunities in AI and data elements, focusing on developing industry-leading digital products and platforms [10]
海通发展向特定对象发行股票申请获上交所受理
9月25日,海通发展(603162)向特定对象发行股票申请获上交所受理。本次拟发行数量不超过3000万 股,预计募集资金2.10亿元。本次发行保荐机构为中信证券股份有限公司。(数据宝) ...
海峡股份股价涨5.66%,南方基金旗下1只基金位居十大流通股东,持有618.37万股浮盈赚取309.19万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 02:56
9月26日,海峡股份涨5.66%,截至发稿,报9.34元/股,成交2.41亿元,换手率1.19%,总市值208.70亿 元。 资料显示,海南海峡航运股份有限公司位于海南省海口市滨海大道157号港航大厦14楼,成立日期2002 年12月6日,上市日期2009年12月16日,公司主营业务涉及船舶运输和轮渡港口服务。主营业务收入构 成为:海安航线72.21%,烟大航线10.48%,西沙航线6.17%,港口业务5.40%,其他航线3.72%,其他 (补充)1.70%,北海航线0.32%。 从海峡股份十大流通股东角度 数据显示,南方基金旗下1只基金位居海峡股份十大流通股东。南方中证1000ETF(512100)二季度增 持117.45万股,持有股数618.37万股,占流通股的比例为0.28%。根据测算,今日浮盈赚取约309.19万 元。 南方中证1000ETF(512100)成立日期2016年9月29日,最新规模649.53亿。今年以来收益27.39%,同 类排名2082/4220;近一年收益61.83%,同类排名1362/3824;成立以来收益12.74%。 南方中证1000ETF(512100)基金经理为崔蕾。 截 ...
海峡股份涨2.04%,成交额1.08亿元,主力资金净流出515.76万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 02:50
Group 1 - The stock price of Hainan Strait Shipping Co., Ltd. increased by 2.04% on September 26, reaching 9.02 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 20.155 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 38.56%, with a recent decline of 3.43% over the last five trading days [1] - Hainan Strait Shipping's main business segments include shipping services, with the majority of revenue coming from the Hai'an route (72.21%), followed by the Yan-Da route (10.48%) and the Xisha route (6.17%) [2] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, Hainan Strait Shipping reported a revenue of 2.721 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47.30% to 126 million CNY [2] - The company has distributed a total of 1.740 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 448 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which reduced its holdings by 6.7894 million shares [3]
海通发展20250925
2025-09-26 02:28
Summary of Haitong Development Conference Call Company Overview - Haitong Development is a leading dry bulk shipping company in China, controlling nearly 5 million deadweight tons of capacity, ranking high in global ultra-flexible vessel capacity [2][4] - The company has expanded from domestic to international trade since its establishment in 2009 and has been listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange since March 2023 [4] Industry Insights - The dry bulk shipping market includes the transportation of commodities such as iron ore, coal, and grain, with vessel types categorized by size [4] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) experienced significant fluctuations due to external factors like U.S. tariffs, Australian hurricanes, and Brazilian rainfall, leading to a substantial decline in the first half of 2025 [2][5] - Since June, the BDI has rebounded to around 2000, a year-on-year increase of over 10%, driven by increased shipments from Australian and Brazilian mines and seasonal demand for coal [2][5][6] Key Points and Arguments - The company has implemented measures such as route selection, flexible capacity allocation, and concentrated repairs to mitigate the impact of market volatility [5] - Future quarters are expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and an upstream mining production cycle, which will positively influence dry bulk shipping demand [7] - The West Simandou project is anticipated to provide a stable growth point, with initial shipments expected before the Double Eleven shopping festival [7][8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current dry bulk fleet is aging, with a historically low number of orders, creating a tight supply situation that favors existing operators [9][10] - The average age of vessels is around 15 years, with about 30% being over 15 years old, which could lead to significant industry changes if older vessels are retired [10] Future Plans - The company plans to expand its fleet to 100 vessels by 2028-2029, primarily through self-funding and bank loans, while also purchasing second-hand vessels for cost efficiency [3][14] - The company has established a marketing department to strengthen ties with upstream miners and has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Xiamen Xiangyu to explore business opportunities [8][24] Environmental Considerations - The company is adapting to stricter environmental regulations, with measures in place to manage carbon emissions and improve compliance ratings [12] - The impact of carbon emission regulations is manageable, as costs can be passed on to charterers [12] Financial Outlook - The company expects improved profitability in the second half of the year, with high freight rates anticipated to persist [13] - Despite a significant decline in performance in the first half due to lower rates and repair costs, the outlook for the third and fourth quarters remains optimistic [13] Market Positioning - The company is focusing on its core dry bulk shipping business and does not plan to diversify into container or cruise shipping sectors [21] - The recent addition of three oil tankers is aimed at supporting internal trade operations, with limited impact on overall performance [22] Conclusion - Haitong Development is well-positioned in the dry bulk shipping market, with strategic plans for fleet expansion and partnerships that leverage market opportunities while navigating environmental challenges and fluctuating demand dynamics [2][7][8][13]
山东远洋启动IPO辅导,山东省港口集团第四家上市公司?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 02:26
公开资料显示,山东远洋成立于2020年3月27日,注册资本4.45亿元,位于青岛市市北区,是山东省港 口集团有限公司(下称"山东省港口集团")业务板块重组整合的产物,主要从事集装箱运输及代理、油 品加注及运输、干散货运输、客箱班轮运输等业务。该公司控股股东为山东省港口集团,持股 29.47%。 文 | 经济导报 杨佳琪 据证监会网站披露,山东远洋海运集团股份有限公司(下称"山东远洋")于9月24日在青岛证监局进行 上市辅导备案登记,拟首次公开发行股票并上市,辅导券商为申万宏源证券承销保荐有限责任公司(下 称"申万宏源证券")。 | | | | | 全国一体化在线政务服务平台 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 中国证券监督管理委员会网上办事服务平台(试运行) | | | | | | | | 公开发行辅导公示 | | 辅导对象 | 辅导机构 | 备案时间 辅导状态 | 测出机构 | 报告类型 | 报告标题 | | - | 北京 | | 天津 | 安徽大昌科技股份有限公司 | 中 ...