Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent price fluctuations driven by investor behavior and upcoming adjustments in commodity index weights [1] Group 1: Price Movements - On the 30th, international gold prices rebounded, reaching above $4,400 per ounce, following a sell-off the previous day [1] - As of 22:32 Beijing time on the 30th, gold futures for February delivery were priced at $4,402.7 per ounce, reflecting a 1.36% increase [1] - Silver futures for March delivery rose to $75.595 per ounce, marking a 7.24% increase, while platinum futures for February delivery reached $2,253.1 per ounce, up by 6.27% [1] Group 2: Future Risks - Analysts indicate that precious metal prices are likely to face substantial volatility in the future [1] - In January, Bloomberg Commodity Index and S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index will adjust the weightings of various commodities, including precious metals [1] - Due to significant price increases over the past two years, precious metals are expected to see reduced weightings in these indices, leading to potential sell-offs by passive funds tracking these indices, which could exert downward pressure on gold and silver futures [1]

如何看待贵金属的波动？20251231 摘要 本轮贵金属牛市中，白银表现出更高的波动性和加速上涨形态，白银 ETF 波动率指数接近 2011 年峰值。黄金表现相对稳健，波动率抬升幅 度较小，未创新高。金银呈现不同的弹性特征。 当前金银比已收敛至 55-57 附近，回到 2014 年以前水平，处于过去 20 多年中性偏低位置。与前几轮不同，本轮金银比收敛并未伴随全球制 造业 PMI 指数显著反弹，而是处于企稳状态。 白银已连续 5 年出现供应缺口，交易所显性库存自 2020 年以来显著下 行。四大交易所白银行库存约为 4.28 万吨，超六成被白银 ETF 锁定， 可流通库存极低，放大了多逼空风险。 COMEX 交割需求大增，12 月交割量创历史第五位，多逼空题材被炒作。 伦敦市场面临低库存压力，租赁利率维持高位。国内交易所库存降至近 十年最低水平，各市场多逼空题材发酵。 伦敦白银现货市场处于低库存状态，高频租赁利率数据表明紧张局面加 剧。国内白银现货较境外升水幅度超过 1,000 元每千克，可能吸引境外 白银回流国内，加剧海外现货偏紧格局。 白银行情背后存在供应缺口问题。根据世界白银协会的数据，截至 2024 ...

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Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 5% over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The international gold price experienced a slight decline to $4,514 per ounce as of December 30, 2025, after reaching a historical high of $4,526 on December 24, 2025, but still recorded an annual increase of 65%-70%, marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [1]. - Short-term technical corrections are attributed to factors such as easing geopolitical risks, profit-taking pressures, and differing monetary policy expectations [1][2]. - In the medium to long term, factors such as the U.S. debt crisis, a weak dollar, and a rate-cutting cycle provide fundamental support for gold prices, with central banks continuing to purchase gold and increasing investment demand for gold ETFs [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The market performance of the non-ferrous metals index and the CSI 300 index showed significant fluctuations, with a notable annual increase in gold prices [1]. Short-term Factors - Geopolitical risk reduction, profit-taking at year-end, and differing expectations regarding monetary policy are influencing short-term price movements [1][2]. Medium to Long-term Factors - The ongoing U.S. debt crisis, weak dollar, and anticipated rate cuts are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. - Central banks are expected to continue their gold purchases, and investment demand for gold ETFs is likely to increase due to wealth effects [2][4]. Silver Market Dynamics - Recent volatility in silver prices, driven by its industrial properties and low domestic inventory in China, has attracted significant capital inflow, leading to price surges [3]. - The potential for a price correction in silver exists, while gold prices are expected to rise [3]. Investment Recommendations - Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for gold assets remains positive due to macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks [4]. - Gold stocks have not seen significant price increases in line with physical gold and silver, indicating a potential for stability amidst market fluctuations [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [6] Core Insights - The precious metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.8%, with lithium performing the best at 11.4% and rare earths performing the worst at -3% [2][15] - Gold and silver prices showed a weekly fluctuation of 1.5% and 13% respectively on the SHFE [3][23] - The latest gold-silver ratio is 58.4%, indicating a significant drop, while the gold-oil ratio stands at 75% and the gold-copper ratio at 763 [3][33] Summary by Sections Precious Metals Market Review - The precious metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.8% [15] Precious Metals Related Indicators Tracking - The SHFE gold price fluctuated by 1.5% and the SHFE silver price by 13% last week [3][23] - The U.S. November CPI decreased to 2.7% year-on-year, while the core CPI for September was slightly higher at 2.8% [3][26] - The U.S. dollar index as of December 30 was 98.2, continuing to decline [3][26] Investment Recommendations - Recent surges in silver prices are attributed to its industrial properties and improving economic expectations, with domestic silver inventories at historical lows [5][50] - Short-term price corrections for silver are anticipated, while gold prices are expected to rise [5][51] - Long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to weak dollar conditions and ongoing geopolitical risks [5][51] Major Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for major companies in the sector, indicating varying performance metrics across different firms [52]

Group 1 - Chinese semiconductor firm Jian Guang Asset is forced to sell 80.2% of its stake in FTDI due to UK government intervention citing national security risks, potentially leading to significant losses for the company and its shareholders [2][7] - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with silver prices dropping 9.08% and gold prices falling by 1.50% on December 31, attributed to factors such as profit-taking and changes in trading conditions [2][7] - The RMB/USD central parity rate was adjusted to 7.0288, marking the highest level since September 30, 2024, with offshore RMB breaking below 6.99 [2][7] Group 2 - The A-share market showed strong performance in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points and total trading volume hitting 419.86 trillion yuan, indicating a bullish outlook for 2026 [3][8] - The 2026 "Two New" policy optimizes subsidy standards for the automotive industry, with a total of 625 billion yuan allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods [3][8] - The first national standard for solid-state batteries was released, aiming to regulate the industry and promote its mature development [3][8] Group 3 - Geely's subsidiary, Weirui Power, is suing Awin for 2.314 billion yuan over battery quality issues related to the Zeekr 001 model, which may lead to significant industry restructuring [4][9] - Zijin Mining expects a net profit of approximately 51-52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 60%, supported by rising gold prices [4][10] - CITIC Securities identified ten macro opportunities for 2026, including the continued accumulation of gold reserves and the integration of new technologies [4][10] Group 4 - China Energy Equipment announced the termination of an over 800 million yuan acquisition of three high-voltage electrical companies to avoid potential financial losses [5][10]

2025年大宗商品市场呈现分化格局，金银等贵金属走出了史诗级牛市，工业金属强劲反弹，而能源和农产品则陷入多年低谷。 贵金属市场创造了历史性涨势。白银涨超146%创下有史以来最大年度涨幅，黄金上涨超过60%，录得1979年以来最强表现。贵金属的狂飙主要受 美联储降息预期、地缘政治冲突、央行持续购金以及交易所交易基金持仓增加推动。 基本金属市场同样表现强劲。伦铜全年上涨近44%，创2009年以来最大年度涨幅，并在年末触及12960美元的历史高位。 相比之下，能源市场走势略显失意。WTI原油全年均下跌超18%，录得2020年以来最大年度跌幅，非OPEC+国家的产量增长与全球经济增长放缓 的预期，共同加剧了市场对供应持续过剩的担忧，彻底压制了油价。 与此同时，农产品市场普遍受供应压力主导而表现疲软。可可价格因供应从紧张转为充裕而暴跌48%，成为年度输家；原糖、咖啡、小麦及玉米 等主要农产品亦普遍承压走弱。 本轮史诗级上涨主要由四大结构性因素驱动：首先是政策价值重估。白银被美国列为关键矿产，引发战略地位的根本性提升；其次，白银供应刚 性约束支撑价格。矿山产出增长缓慢，与此同时，全球交易所库存持续处于历史低位；第三是工业 ...

Market Overview - On December 31, the global precious metals market experienced significant turmoil, with spot silver dropping over 7% and platinum falling more than 12% in a single day [1][3] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements for precious metal futures for the second time, causing investor concern about the sustainability of the recent price surge [1][7] Price Movements - Spot silver fell below $71 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 5%, closing at $72.12 per ounce [3] - Other precious metals also saw substantial declines, with platinum dropping over 11% and palladium down more than 5% [3] - Gold prices also decreased, with COMEX gold experiencing a drop of over 1% [5] Regulatory Actions - The CME's recent margin increase is aimed at cooling down the rapidly rising precious metals market, following a previous increase on December 12 [7][8] - This regulatory action requires traders to provide more collateral, thereby limiting market leverage and reflecting concerns over market volatility [8] - Domestic regulatory bodies, such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange, have also adjusted trading limits and margin requirements for gold and silver futures [9][10] Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent declines in precious metals are primarily due to technical factors, including profit-taking by long positions and forced deleveraging amid stricter margin requirements [12] - Despite the recent pullback, gold and silver are expected to record their strongest annual performance since 1979, supported by strong central bank purchases and continued inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [12] - The long-term outlook for silver remains positive due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with a projected supply gap of over 100 million ounces by 2025 [12] - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 16,400 tons as of December 26, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2% [12] Future Outlook - Analysts from Jinrui Futures believe that the recent price drop is a significant shakeout in the bull market, suggesting that once speculative bubbles are cleared, market pricing may return to being driven by fundamentals [12] - Optimistic forecasts from Wall Street economist Peter Schiff suggest that silver prices could exceed $100 per ounce in the coming year [14]

每经记者｜吴永久 每经编辑｜闫峰峰 2025年的A股于今日收官，上证指数年涨幅达18.41%，AI硬件、有色金属、商业航天、人形机器人等多个板块表现靓丽。展望2026年，多数机构认为，国 内外增量资金入市、企业盈利修复、政策端加码等多重因素有望支撑A股表现，2026年A股迈向"慢牛"。 在每日经济新闻App举办的掘金大赛中，第80期比赛于今日结束，多位选手表现出色。其中冠军收益率58.39%，亚军收益率54.94%，季军收益率 54.50%。本期比赛共908名选手取得正收益，他们都将获得现金奖励。 从12月的月度积分王来看，第一名选手积分达12分，他在12月的收益率超过80%。第二名选手积分达10分，第三名选手积分达9分。根据比赛规则，当月 度总积分相同时，以当月最后一期比赛的收益率进行排名，前100名选手都将获得现金奖励。 | 排名 | 昵称 | 积分▼ | 趋势 | 功能 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 终极- 一战 | 12 | | 看持仓 | | 2 | 郭浩南 | 10 | | 看持仓 | | 3 | 康师傅方 ... | 9 | | 看持仓 | | ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84, with a daily increase of 0.09% and an annual growth of 18.41%, marking the best performance since 2019 [2][3] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.58% today but achieved an annual growth of 29.87%, the best since 2020 [2] - The ChiNext Index fell by 1.23% today, yet recorded an impressive annual growth of 49.57%, the highest since 2020 [2] - The North Stock 50 Index declined by 0.7% today, with an annual increase of 38.8% [2] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index saw an annual increase of 27.77%, the best performance since 2017 [6] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 23.45% over the year, marking its best performance since its establishment in 2020 [6] Precious Metals Market - On December 31, precious metals experienced significant declines, with spot gold dropping by 1.50% and spot silver falling over 6% [9] - Despite the recent downturn, silver's performance for the year was remarkable, soaring by 147%, and both gold and silver are expected to achieve their best annual growth since 1979 [9] - The CME Group announced a second increase in margin requirements for precious metals futures within a week, citing market volatility as the reason [11] - Silver futures reached a record high of over $82 per ounce before experiencing a substantial pullback [12]