Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Russell Investments suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates throughout the summer, with potential rate cuts of one to two times by the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. recession outlook, citing that the impact of tariffs is lower than expected and the financial environment has returned to pre-tariff levels [2] - The current inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices may be less significant than anticipated, although future CPI increases are expected due to tariff effects [2] Group 2: Global Economic and Market Trends - Analysts from Deutsche Bank note that the market's inflation and interest rate expectations in Japan are rising, putting pressure on the long-term bond market [1] - The performance of German and U.S. government bonds is influenced by inflation concerns and safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - The decline in new home sales in Singapore is attributed to a lack of new launches, reflecting uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook due to global trade challenges [3] Group 3: Currency and Oil Market Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar is primarily driven by a rebound in oil prices rather than traditional safe-haven dynamics [4] - The U.S. has become one of the largest oil producers globally, which means that rising oil prices not only benefit oil-producing countries but also support the dollar through improved trade conditions [4] - Investors are advised to focus on global oil price changes and their impact on U.S. trade conditions for a more accurate prediction of the dollar's performance in international markets [5]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasized the need to effectively promote the construction of "good houses" and integrate it into urban renewal mechanisms, providing policy support in planning, land, finance, and other areas to stabilize the real estate market [4] - The People's Bank of China announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 6 months [4] - The central government allocated 80 billion yuan for urban renewal projects, benefiting approximately 17 million people and improving living conditions [5] Group 2 - A series of adjustments to A-share indices, including major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component, will take effect on June 16 [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released new regulations for algorithmic trading in the futures market to enhance monitoring and risk management [4] - The successful clinical trial of an invasive brain-computer interface marks China as the second country globally to enter this phase, following the United States [5] Group 3 - GAC Group committed to ensuring the completion of dealer rebate payments within two months [10] - Kweichow Moutai adjusted its 2024 profit distribution plan, increasing the dividend to 27.673 yuan per share [10] - Shenzhen Guangdao Digital Technology Co., Ltd. faces potential forced delisting due to financial fraud, with trading suspended for one day [10] Group 4 - Huatai Securities reported that the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to high volatility in oil prices, with significant price rebounds expected [14] - CITIC Securities noted that the new model of real estate development will more effectively address structural supply-demand mismatches, with economic growth projected to exceed 5% in the second quarter [15] - GF Securities maintained a positive outlook on the computer industry, emphasizing the importance of external risk preferences and identifying key areas for mid-term opportunities [16]

Group 1 - Financial support for the real economy has strengthened, with social financing scale increasing by 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2025, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The structure of new social financing is primarily driven by RMB loans, government bond financing, and bill financing, with RMB loans to the real economy increasing by 10.38 trillion yuan, contributing over 50% to the total [2] - Government bond net financing reached 6.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan year-on-year, driven by proactive fiscal policies [3] Group 2 - The efficiency of market financing has improved, with non-financial corporate domestic stock financing reaching 150.4 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, an increase of 44.4 billion yuan year-on-year [4] - The balance of non-financial corporate stocks reached 11.87 trillion yuan by the end of May, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [4] - The issuance of government bonds remains high, with the balance of government bonds increasing to 20.5% of the total social financing stock, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [5] Group 3 - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 262.86 trillion yuan by the end of May, accounting for 61.7% of the total social financing stock, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year [5] - The trend of "de-dollarization" among enterprises is becoming more evident, with foreign currency loans decreasing by 16.3% year-on-year [5] - The broad money supply (M2) was 325.78 trillion yuan at the end of May, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [5]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 5 月，新增社融 2.29 万亿（前值 1.16 万亿），新增人民币贷款 6200 亿（前值 2800 亿）。社融 存量同比增长 8.7% （前值 8.7% ）， M2 同比增长 7.9% （前值 8% ），新口径 M1 同比增长 2.3% （前 值 1.5% ）。 核心观点 1 、在海外关税政策不确定性的影响下， 4 月和 5 月企业存款回落，企业现金流或承受一定程度的冲击。 2 、但在国内稳定资本市场政策的确定性的影响下，新增非银存款持续抬升， 4 月 5 月非银存款新增规模 是 2016 年以来同期最高值。 3 、政府层面，政府加速发债的背景下，新增存款规模相对偏慢，从这个视角来看政府债的下拨也相对偏 快，不过要关注后续政府债接近发行规模后的续航问题。 4 、从领先指标来看，企业居民存款剪刀差自 2024 年 9 月以来仍在持续改善，外部环境的不确定性并未打 破这一趋势，这或许意味着国内政策的确定性当下或是影响经济循环行为更重要的变量。 报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant changes in the flow of funds in the financial market, driven by a decline in deposit interest rates, leading to a "deposit migration" effect where individuals and businesses are shifting their funds to higher-yielding financial products like money market funds and cash management products [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections Deposit Growth - As of the end of May, the balance of RMB deposits reached 316.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with new deposits in May amounting to nearly 2.2 trillion yuan, which is 500 billion yuan more than the same period last year [1][3]. - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.19 trillion yuan in May, marking the highest level for the same period in nearly a decade, with a year-on-year increase of 300 billion yuan [3][4]. Factors Influencing Non-Bank Deposits - The significant rise in non-bank deposits is closely linked to the increased activity in the financial market and a shift in fund flows, particularly due to the recent round of deposit rate cuts [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the decline in deposit rates has led residents and some businesses to move their funds from demand deposits to higher-yielding financial products, directly contributing to the substantial growth in non-bank deposits [5][6]. Bank Wealth Management Growth - The continued growth of bank wealth management products serves as strong evidence of the "deposit migration" effect, with a month-on-month increase of 340 billion yuan in May, bringing the total to 31.6 trillion yuan [6]. - The performance of credit bonds has enhanced the attractiveness of wealth management products, providing stable underlying asset returns and improving investor experience, which in turn attracts more funds [6]. Monthly Deposit and Loan Growth Discrepancies - In May, while deposits saw a significant increase, RMB loans rose by only 620 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, indicating a divergence in growth rates [12]. - Experts note that the differences in monthly deposit and loan growth reflect the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures, necessitating a long-term perspective on these dynamics [12][14]. Economic Context and Market Sentiment - The resilience in May's data is attributed to a series of financial support measures that have boosted market confidence, leading to signs of recovery in investment and consumption activities [10]. - The overall increase in deposits is also influenced by the gradual release of fiscal funds and the recovery of local government financing, which supports the demand for demand deposits [10][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the future week, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline, and the tax period will disrupt the capital market. Considering the central bank's care for the capital market and the adequacy of its toolbox, the capital market is expected to maintain a balanced and slightly loose operation [1]. - In the future week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs) will exceed one trillion, with significant supply pressure. However, the central bank's second - round injection of medium - and long - term funds is expected to marginally relieve the issuance pressure of CDs, and CD yields may show a fluctuating downward trend [1]. - Funds have become the main buyer of interest - rate bonds, with a significant increase in net buying volume in the past week, while rural commercial banks have become the main seller [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Liquidity Tracking 1.1 Fund Review: The Central Bank Announces Another Injection of Medium - and Long - term Liquidity - In the statistical period (June 9 - 13, 2025), 7 - day reverse repurchase funds of 930.9 billion yuan matured, and the central bank injected 858.2 billion yuan of 7 - day funds, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan for the whole week, and the OMO stock decreased to 858.2 billion yuan. The central bank announced a second - round 40 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation for the next week, achieving a net injection for the whole month [10]. - During the statistical period, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar depreciated by 1.52 basis points due to the uncertainty of US tariffs and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut [10]. - In terms of government bond progress, in the past week, the net financing of treasury bonds was 262.06 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3.10409 trillion yuan, completing 46.6% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 8.372 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2.00893 trillion yuan, completing 38.6% of the annual plan, with a slowdown in the issuance speed. As of June 13, 1.68 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts had been issued, completing 84.2% of the annual plan [13]. - In terms of capital structure, the lending scale of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased significantly to over 4.5 trillion yuan, the lending scale of money market funds and wealth management products decreased, and the overall borrowing scale of non - banking institutions decreased slightly. The DR series declined, with overnight rates operating near the policy rate, and the spread between 7 - day rates and the policy rate narrowed to 10bp. The R series rose, and the liquidity stratification increased slightly but remained at a low level. The capital market showed a situation of "increasing volume and decreasing price" throughout the week, with a marginal tightening feeling on Thursday and Friday, and a balanced feeling for the whole week [15]. 1.2 CD Review: The Secondary - Market Interest Rate of CDs Declined Slightly, and the Demand from Core Buyers Strengthened - In the primary market, the net financing scale of inter - bank CDs was - 16.226 billion yuan in the statistical period, with a total issuance of 104.137 billion yuan and a maturity of 120.363 billion yuan. In the next three weeks, 102.164 billion, 113.781 billion, and 24.579 billion yuan of inter - bank CDs will mature respectively. The primary issuance rate decreased slightly, with an average issuance rate of 1.6744% (previous value: 1.7106%) [18]. - In the secondary market, core buyers such as funds and wealth management products continued to increase their holdings, money market funds changed from selling to buying, large - scale banks continued to reduce their holdings, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks changed from buying to selling, and insurance and other non - banking institutions and other product accounts continued to increase their holdings. The secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated and declined slightly during the week, and the yield curve steepened slightly. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by - 1.78BP/ - 2.00BP/ - 1.50BP/ - 1.05BP/ - 0.91BP respectively [20]. 1.3 Next - Week Focus: The Central Bank's Firm Care for the Capital Market and the Marginal Relief of CD Issuance Pressure - In terms of the capital market, the May social financing data showed that the credit demand of residents and enterprises had recovered compared with April, with a weak stabilization of overall credit demand. The increase in government bond supply drove the stable growth of social financing, which is expected to support the key period of fiscal expenditure in June. After the deposit rate cut in May, the phenomenon of deposit transfer emerged, with a significant increase in non - banking deposits. The central bank announced a second - round injection of 40 billion yuan of 6 - month outright repurchase in the middle of the month. Combined with the previous 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright repurchase and the 120 - billion - yuan maturity this month, the net injection of outright reverse repurchases for the whole month was 20 billion yuan. The central bank's small - scale net withdrawal in open - market operations in the past two weeks also showed its care for the capital market. It is expected that the market will price a positive signal on June 16, but the amplitude will be smaller than that on June 6. In the next week, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline, and the tax period will disrupt the capital market. Considering the central bank's care and the adequacy of its toolbox, the capital market is expected to maintain a balanced and slightly loose operation [24]. - In terms of CDs, on the supply side, the net financing of CDs remained negative in the past week. The central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity relieved the liability pressure of banks, and the primary - market interest rate of CDs decreased slightly. On the demand side, the demand from core buyers strengthened marginally, and the secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated and declined slightly during the week. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs will exceed one trillion, with significant supply pressure. However, the central bank's second - round injection of medium - and long - term funds is expected to marginally relieve the issuance pressure of CDs, and CD yields may show a fluctuating downward trend [25]. 2. Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking Recent Considerations on Institutional Assets and Liabilities - The trends of the active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds deviated significantly at times recently. The main reasons are that the supply rhythms of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds were staggered in June, and the weak sentiment in the primary - market allocation disturbed the secondary - market. Since the beginning of the second quarter, interest rates have mainly fluctuated within a narrow range, and institutions had a strong desire to increase duration to obtain excess returns during the window of loose liquidity at the beginning of June. The trading volume of 30 - year treasury bonds increased more significantly than that of 10 - year treasury bonds. Looking forward, there will be no issuance pressure for 10 - year treasury bonds in the second half of June, and the capital price still shows certain volatility. The window period for institutions to increase duration may end, and the performance of 30 - year treasury bonds may not continue to outperform [27]. - The rotation of the bond - replacement market of China Development Bank (CDB) bonds has been very fast recently. When the bond - replacement of CDB active bonds accelerates, the volatility of new bonds will also increase. Therefore, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds has fluctuated significantly recently. In the short term, old bonds may be safer to avoid volatility [28]. Key Review of Institutional Secondary - Market Transactions - Large - scale banks continued to buy treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, with a buying volume of about 77.6 billion yuan in the past week [31]. - Funds have become the main buyer of interest - rate bonds, with a net buying volume of about 160.4 billion yuan in the past week, showing a significant increase. Rural commercial banks have become one of the main sellers, with a net selling volume of about 109.2 billion yuan in the past week [31]. - The main buyers of CDs are money market funds, wealth management products, and other products, while the main sellers are city commercial banks and securities firms [31]. - The net buying volume of main non - banking buyers of credit bonds increased. Funds, wealth management products, and other products were the main net buyers, with funds having the largest increase. Since late March, the net buying volume of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years has been generally stable, while the net buying volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years has fluctuated greatly, and the main non - banking buyers increased their buying volume significantly in the past week [31]. - For secondary - tier capital bonds, funds with a maturity of less than 2 years changed to net sellers, with a net selling volume of about 4.9 billion yuan in the past week, while wealth management products and other products changed to net buyers. The main buyers of 2 - 5 - year secondary - tier capital bonds continued to increase their buying volume, with funds having the largest net buying volume of about 36.2 billion yuan, and the banking system was the main net seller. The trading of 5 - 10 - year secondary - tier capital bonds remained light [31]. High - Frequency Data Tracking of Bond Market Micro - Structure - On June 13, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 5.92bp, and the spread fluctuated and widened. The spread between 1 - year CDB bonds and R001 was 1.87BP, and the yield of short - term bonds was slightly higher than the capital price [33]. - The leverage ratio of the bond market in the week before the holiday was 107.72%, continuing to rise month - on - month [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - As of June 13, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.35 years and 2.98 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 3.90 years, 3.70 years, and 2.03 years respectively, with general commercial financial bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.05 years, 3.56 years, and 1.62 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical quantiles and leasing company bonds at a relatively high historical quantile [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined after reaching its peak in March 2024 and then slightly increased this week, currently at the 53.10% level since March 2021 [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Full - variety Term Overview - The weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 2.35 years, 2.98 years, 3.90 years, 3.70 years, and 2.03 years respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.05 years, 3.56 years, and 1.62 years respectively [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index is currently at the 53.10% level since March 2021 [13]. 2. Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading term of urban investment bonds hovered around 2.35 years. The duration of Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds exceeded 6 years, while that of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds shortened to around 0.81 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Jiangsu district - level, Zhejiang prefecture - level, Chongqing district - level, Guangdong prefecture - level, Fujian district - level, Sichuan provincial, and Henan prefecture - level have exceeded 90%. The durations of urban investment bonds in Anhui prefecture - level, Zhejiang prefecture - level, and Guangdong prefecture - level are approaching the highest since 2021 [3][17]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading term of industrial bonds shortened slightly compared to last week, generally around 2.98 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry shortened significantly to 1.28 years, while that of the public utilities industry lengthened to 3.35 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry is at a relatively low historical quantile, while those of public utilities, transportation, commerce and retail, non - ferrous metals and other industries are all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of securities subordinated bonds shortened to 2.05 years, at the 45% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 3.90 years, at the 78.6% historical quantile, lower than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.70 years, at the 66.8% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [3][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 79.3%, 45%, 50.4%, and 95.9% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds lengthened slightly compared to last week [4][26].

DR001 或成新目标 宽松下限尚未到达 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250615 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com 3DR001 或成新目标 宽松下限尚未到达 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行 OMO 净回笼 72 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges posed by a low-interest-rate environment and suggests various asset allocation strategies to mitigate inflation pressure and enhance returns in such conditions [1][3][7]. Group 1: Financial Environment - The global financial environment is becoming increasingly complex, with many individuals struggling to keep pace [1]. - Japan's zero interest rate policy since 1999 and Europe's negative interest rates since 2014 have led to a shift in asset allocation strategies among residents [1][3]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Gold prices have reached $3,300, and Bitcoin has surged to $110,000, while deposit interest rates have fallen below 1%, creating significant pressure on traditional savings [3]. - Major domestic banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1% [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - Personal asset management should follow a "three-part method" for diversified asset allocation [3]. - Short-term liquidity should be managed through money market funds or T+0 cash management products, with annualized rates around 1% [3]. - High-dividend stocks and REITs are recommended for stable income, with average dividend rates of approximately 3% for domestic ETFs and up to 7% for Hong Kong's high-dividend ETFs [5]. - A combination of government bonds, convertible bonds, and high-rated corporate bonds can target around 3% returns, with domestic options including policy financial bond funds and convertible bond index funds [5]. - Long-term guaranteed income can be achieved through life insurance products offering around 3% returns, although recent trends show a decline in guaranteed rates [5][7]. Group 4: Global Asset Diversification - Investors concerned about currency depreciation are advised to consider QDII index funds and gold ETFs for international asset diversification and commodity risk hedging [5]. - The article emphasizes the need for a multi-faceted investment strategy to adapt to the low-interest-rate environment and ensure asset preservation and growth [7].

Core Insights - The financial outlook for individuals born in the Year of the Dragon in 2025 presents a complex scenario with potential for both income growth and expenditure challenges [3][4]. Income Sources - Efforts in the workplace may yield returns, particularly for those in corporate roles, where skill enhancement could lead to promotions and salary increases [3]. - The correlation between professional skill improvement and salary growth is supported by workplace studies [3]. - However, certain industries, especially traditional manufacturing, may face market contraction, impacting income due to reduced order volumes [3]. Expenditure Management - Caution is advised regarding expenditures, as living costs may rise due to price fluctuations, particularly in food and housing [4]. - Economic experts predict potential increases in rent in certain areas due to urban development plans, necessitating careful budgeting [4]. - It is important to limit unnecessary social spending and high-priced non-essential purchases to avoid financial strain [4]. - Investment in self-improvement, such as educational expenses, should not be overly restricted [4]. Financial Planning - A diversified approach to financial management is crucial, with bank deposits being a safe option for maintaining capital stability [4]. - Bond investments are recommended for their predictable returns in varying economic conditions, while relying solely on low-risk investments may yield limited returns [4]. - Engaging in the stock market is an option, but it is essential to select stable blue-chip stocks, keeping in mind the inherent uncertainties of the market [4]. Collaborative Investments - Caution is necessary for those considering collaborative investments in 2025, as they can offer higher returns but also come with significant risks [5][6]. - Thorough due diligence on potential partners' credibility and investment capabilities is essential to avoid failures due to trust issues [6]. - Clear terms and profit-sharing mechanisms must be established to prevent disputes during profit or loss scenarios [6]. - Comprehensive market research on investment projects is critical to avoid impulsive financial decisions based on short-term gains [7].