Group 1 - Multiple securities and battery-related ETFs saw significant gains on September 29, with the Hong Kong Securities ETF leading the way, rising over 6% and achieving a trading volume of 475.18 billion yuan, the highest for the day [1][4][10] - The technology innovation bond ETFs were also active, with half of the top ten ETFs by trading volume being such products, including the Guotai and Huatai ETFs, each exceeding 10 billion yuan in trading volume [2][10] - The previous trading day (September 26) saw substantial net inflows into several technology innovation bond ETFs and the CSI A500 ETF, with net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [3][12] Group 2 - The technology innovation semiconductor materials and equipment index has surged by 127.17% since September 24, 2024, indicating strong growth potential in the semiconductor sector [6] - The technology innovation semiconductor ETF (588170) experienced over 1.6 billion yuan in net inflows in the past month, reflecting strong investor interest in this segment [7] - The semiconductor equipment and materials industry is expected to enter a rapid growth phase, with established delivery and validation cycles creating a competitive advantage for firms in this space [7] Group 3 - Coal ETFs, along with others like the Saudi ETF and the All-Index Cash Flow ETF, experienced declines, indicating a shift in investor sentiment away from these sectors [8] - The market outlook suggests a continuation of the upward trend in A-shares, driven by technological advancements and supportive policies for AI and innovation sectors [13]

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Operation of Major Asset Classes (20250922 - 20250926) - US Inflation Data Meets Expectations, with Commodities Rising Overall [1] - Timeframe: September 22 - September 26, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global: The market's performance last week was influenced by economic data. The US 8 - month PCE year - on - year growth rate met market expectations. The dollar index ended the week higher, stocks and bonds declined, and commodities rose. In general, commodities > stocks > bonds in terms of dollar - denominated assets [4][7]. - Domestic: China's industrial enterprise profits returned to positive growth in August year - on - year. The stock market and commodities ended the week higher, and the bond market declined. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][20]. - Outlook: The focus is on the release of domestic and foreign macro - data during the National Day. There are important data such as non - farm payrolls to be released, leading to high market uncertainty. After the holiday, price fluctuations of major asset classes may increase [4][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - Most global stock markets declined. US stocks had a weekly correction. From a regional perspective, the three major US stock indexes ended the week lower, with a relatively large decline in the Asia - Pacific region. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index continued to operate at a low level [9]. - Specific index performance: MSCI US was down 0.35%, S&P 500 was down 0.31%, MSCI Asia - Pacific was down 1.02%, etc. [12][13] 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - Fed officials had some differences in the path of dollar interest rate cuts this year. Medium - and long - term US bond yields generally rose. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 6BP to 4.2% weekly, and the bond market declined. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The initial value of the month - on - month growth rate of US durable goods orders in August far exceeded expectations. The dollar index rose weekly, and most non - US currencies depreciated against the dollar. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated weakly. The weekly increase of the dollar index was 0.55% [17]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Geopolitical factors caused disruptions again, and international oil prices ended the week higher. Expectations of dollar interest rate cuts supported international precious metal prices. Most industrial metals and agricultural product prices fell [19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - Market sentiment changed little. Most of the major broad - based A - share indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, electronics and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while consumer services underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21% weekly [21]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The central bank's net injection in the open market operation was 940.6 billion yuan. The liquidity marginally eased, and the bond market was weak. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [25]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market continued to rise weekly. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the black - related sectors underperformed [26].

The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor does it discuss their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The report primarily focuses on fund market performance, ETF flows, ESG products, and other financial market observations. Therefore, there are no relevant quantitative models or factors to summarize.

Report Information - Report Title: [Ping An Securities] 2025 Interest Rate Bond Quarterly Report: Opportunities and Risks in the Bond Market under Multiple Challenges [1] - Release Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Liu Lu, Zheng Zichen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the Market (Expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [94] Core Views - The bond market entered a headwind period in Q3 due to multiple factors, with a bearish steepening of the yield curve, a decline in the inter - bank leverage ratio, a reduction in the duration of asset management accounts, and a certain demand maintained by allocation accounts [2]. - The necessity of stabilizing growth is increasing in Q4. Policy measures may include interest rate cuts of 10BP, reserve requirement ratio cuts of 25BP, restarting bond purchases, and fiscal stimulus leading to a year - on - year increase of over 1 trillion yuan in Q4 [3]. - There are trading opportunities for bonds with maturities within 10 years in Q4, while ultra - long bonds face repricing risks [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: Domestic Bond Yields Reach New Highs - **Multiple Negative Factors Lead to Q3 Bond Market Adjustment**: In June, "anti - involution" drove up commodity prices; in July, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3400 points; in August - September, policy adjustments such as the readjustment of VAT on treasury bond interest and concerns about the cancellation of tax - exemption policies for public funds led to bond fund redemptions and rising interest rates [2][6]. - **Deviation from Fundamentals and Funds, Dominated by Sentiment and Institutional Behavior**: The adjustment deviated from fundamentals and funds, with stable funds and a marginal decline in fundamentals in July - August. Market sentiment and institutional behavior played a dominant role [8]. - **Market Leverage Declines, Asset Management Accounts Reduce Positions, Allocation Accounts Maintain Demand**: During the market adjustment, institutions tended to reduce leverage, asset management accounts reduced positions, and allocation accounts supported the market [11]. - **Performance of Different Bond Types**: Short - term treasury bonds were relatively resistant to decline due to large - bank purchases; credit bonds weakened as fund and wealth management demand declined; ultra - long bonds performed weakly, with increased supply exceeding demand from insurance and rural commercial banks. There was also a global resonance of rising ultra - long bond yields [2][17][19][26]. PART2: The Necessity of Stabilizing Growth Increases in Q4 - **Policy Support Needed to Achieve the Annual Growth Target**: To achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5%, Q4 requires stronger stabilizing - growth policies than in 2022 - 2023 but weaker than in 2024. Without additional policies, government bond net financing in Q4 is expected to be about 1 trillion less year - on - year [3][46]. - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy Tools**: Fiscal policy may involve policy - based development financial tools of about 500 billion yuan and the possible early issuance of 2 trillion special refinancing bonds in 2026. Monetary policy is expected to remain stable, with no obvious constraints on marginal easing [51]. - **Policy Implementation Timing**: Short - term bond purchases by the central bank are more likely, while reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are more likely to occur at the end of the year, perhaps to align with the December Central Economic Work Conference [52]. - **Central Bank Bond Purchase Maturity**: Based on institutional behavior, the central bank's bond purchases may be extended to within 5 - year maturities [57]. PART3: Bond Market Strategies - **Trading Opportunities for Bonds within 10 Years**: Leading indicators such as social financing and M1 growth are approaching a phased peak. In terms of valuation, 10 - year treasury bonds are relatively cheap compared to listed companies' ROIC and are close to the upper limit of the interest rate corridor. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has risen by 17BP, fully pricing in the current stabilizing - growth policies but not pricing in potential monetary policy benefits [4][64][71]. - **Repricing Risks for Ultra - long Bonds**: Ultra - long bonds may face repricing risks. Based on calculations, the current ultra - long bond yields may have fully priced in inflation improvement. The potential risks include continuous stabilizing - growth policies and global fiscal expansion [80]. - **Short - term Market Contradictions and Strategies**: Short - term market contradictions lie in institutional behavior and sentiment. It is recommended to focus on short - term treasury bonds within 5 years and certificates of deposit in the short term and participate in duration - offensive bonds after negative factors are realized [87].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Standing at the end of September and looking forward to October, investors' judgments on the bond market in the next stage are quite divided. There is a consensus on maintaining a preference for medium - short - term and long - term interest - rate bonds, and the proportion of bullish sentiment has increased. The funding situation, the equity market, and institutional behavior have become the core concerns of investors, and their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has marginally weakened [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of September, there are four mainstream expectations for the bond market in October: 1) The expected range of the upper and lower limits of long - term treasury bond yields is relatively concentrated, and long - term treasury bond yields still show a state of "capped on the upper end and floored on the lower end"; 2) The bullish sentiment in the bond market has slightly increased, and the proportion of those who think it's time to increase positions has significantly risen, while expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are divided; 3) Investors' overall expectations for the economy in September have changed. Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market are the core issues that investors focus on, and the game of institutional behavior has returned to the focus of investors; 4) Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, while their preference for convertible bonds has declined [2][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Investor Bullish Sentiment Rises - A bond market survey questionnaire "What to Expect from the Bond Market in October?" was released on September 25, 2025. By 00:00 on September 28, 204 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors and individual investors such as bank self - operations, securities firm self - operations, and public funds/special accounts [9]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields 10 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 44% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.70% - 1.75% (inclusive), 30% think it will be in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive), 14% think it will fall below 1.70%, and about 12% think it will exceed 1.80%. Regarding the upper limit, 49% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.85% - 1.90% (inclusive), about 29% think it will be below 1.85%, and 11% each think it will be in the range of 1.90% - 1.95% (inclusive) and above 1.95%. Current investors' expectations for the rise of 10 - year treasury bond interest rates have gradually increased compared with the August survey results, but they remain cautious about the judgment of breaking through key points [11]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 34% of investors each think it will fall in the ranges of 1.95% - 2.00% (inclusive) and 2.00% - 2.05% (inclusive), about 19% think it will be above 2.05%, and only 13% think it will be below 1.95%. Regarding the upper limit, about 35% of investors think it will fall in the range of 2.10% - 2.15% (inclusive), 33% think it will be in the range of 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive), and about 19% think it will break through 2.20%. Since September, the 30 - year treasury bond yield has continued to rise, and investors are quite cautious about the expectation that it may further increase [13]. 3.3 Expectations for the Economic Situation in September - 54% of investors think the economy in September will show a situation of "both supply and demand weakening", 29% think it will be "demand weakening, supply strengthening", 9% think it will be "both supply and demand strengthening", and 8% think it will be "demand strengthening, supply weakening". In September, 83% of investors think the demand side has generally weakened, and only 38% expect the supply side to strengthen, indicating that the market is relatively cautious about the expectation of supply expansion [14][17]. 3.4 Expectations for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, 36% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 27% think the next cut may occur in October, 23% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Regarding interest rate cuts, 53% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 19% think the next cut may occur in October, 13% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Compared with the August survey results, investors' expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts have slightly increased, while their expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased [18]. 3.5 Impact of the Fed's 25bp Interest Rate Cut on the Domestic Bond Market - 64% of investors think the Fed's 25bp interest rate cut has limited impact on the domestic bond market, and the domestic fiscal and supply rhythm still need to be considered. 13% think it is beneficial for the repair of the Sino - US interest rate spread and can ease the pressure on RMB depreciation. 12% think the interest rate cut signal strengthens the downward movement of the global interest rate center, which is beneficial for the long - duration trend in the domestic market. Another 12% think the external disturbance is difficult to determine. Most investors think the interest rate cut is not a significant surprise, and its impact on the domestic bond market is relatively limited [22]. 3.6 Expectations for the Bond Market in October - 32% of investors think the bond market in October will strengthen overall, among which 20% expect the yield curve to be bull - flattened (a slight decrease compared with the August survey results), and 12% expect the yield curve to be bull - steepened. 29% of investors think the bond market will be weak. 20% of investors think the bond market may show a differentiation between the short - end and long - end, favoring a strong short - end and a weak long - end, and 6% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Investors' expectations for the bond market are divided, and there is no obvious trend [24]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 31% of investors think they should hold cash and wait for the market to correct to the expected level before increasing positions. 29% of investors think it's time to start increasing positions. 16% of investors think they should reduce the duration to control risks. 10% of investors think they should appropriately reduce positions, and about 15% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. Most investors' actual operations in October are relatively neutral, and the proportion of those who think it's time to start increasing positions has significantly increased [27]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Types in October - Compared with the August survey results, investors' preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, and high - grade urban investment bonds has increased, while their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has significantly decreased. Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds. Their preference for local government bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and secondary capital bonds has slightly decreased [29]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in October - Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market have become the core concerns of bond investors. Investors' attention to the game of institutional behavior has significantly increased. Their attention to fundamental data such as real estate and PMI remains basically the same, and their attention to the disturbance of US tariff policies has significantly decreased [32].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is showing signs reminiscent of the pre-2007 financial crisis, with a resurgence of large-scale leveraged buyouts and increasing risk debt, raising concerns among market observers [3][5][12]. Group 1: Signs of Market Bubble - There are multiple signs of a bubble in the current market, similar to those before the 2007 financial crisis, including a resurgence of large leveraged buyout transactions, with Wall Street banks preparing over $20 billion in merger debt financing [5][10]. - The potential $50 billion acquisition of Electronic Arts Inc. marks a record deal, echoing the $44 billion leveraged buyout of TXU Corp. in 2007 [5][10]. - Rising auto loan default rates signal increasing financial pressure on consumers, with notable bankruptcies in subprime auto lending institutions [5][6]. Group 2: Debt Market Expansion - The U.S. investment-grade market has expanded from less than $4 trillion in early 2015 to approximately $7.6 trillion currently, while the private credit market has grown to over $1.7 trillion [6][8]. - The issuance of private credit-backed bonds has surged, with major firms like Blackstone and Apollo Global Management issuing these products at record speeds [8]. Group 3: Corporate Bond Market Concerns - The risk premium for U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds has reached a 27-year low, indicating overly optimistic pricing of risk in the market [10][12]. - Several market observers, including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, have expressed concerns about current valuation levels, suggesting a potential for panic in the market [10][12]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Market Adjustments - Early signs of economic slowdown are emerging, with the U.S. unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021 and consumer confidence dropping to a four-month low [12][14]. - Despite the differences in the current market environment compared to 2007, such as stricter bank regulations and lower consumer borrowing levels, the potential for significant asset adjustments remains [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Financial Committee and the People's Bank of China Shanghai Headquarters have issued measures to promote the high-quality development of offshore bonds in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, aiming to enhance the financing channels for enterprises involved in the "Belt and Road" initiative and other quality enterprises [1] Group 1 - The measures focus on deepening financial institutional openness while adhering to the principle of "two ends abroad" and aligning with international rules and standards [1] - The initiative aims to accelerate the development of a high-quality offshore bond market, enhancing the competitiveness and influence of Shanghai as an international financial center [1] - The approach emphasizes balancing development and security, ensuring that risk management is prioritized while constructing an offshore financial system that matches Shanghai's international financial center status [1]

Fund Issuance - 12 new ESG funds were launched this month, with a total issuance of 6.21 billion units[9] - In the past year, 255 ESG public funds were issued, totaling 177.81 billion units[9] - The total number of existing ESG funds is 930, with the largest categories being ESG strategy (388 funds) and environmental protection (269 funds)[11] Market Performance - The A-share market showed signs of recovery, with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.44% and the ESG 300 index increasing by 1.07% during the week of September 22-26, 2025[5] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was approximately 2.32 trillion yuan, indicating a contraction in liquidity[5] Fund Performance - The top-performing fund last week was the Harvest Green Theme A, with a weekly return of 7.64% and a year-to-date return of 65.33%[12] - Other notable funds included the Shenwan Hongyuan New Economy A and Harvest Carbon Neutral Theme, with returns of 6.17% and 6.13% respectively for the week[12] Green Bond Issuance - A total of 141 ESG bonds were issued this month, amounting to 116.2 billion yuan[15] - Over the past year, 1,116 ESG bonds were issued, with a total value of 1,251.9 billion yuan[15] - The existing ESG bond market consists of 3,677 bonds, with green bonds making up the largest share at 2,510 bonds[15] Trading Activity - The total trading volume of ESG green bonds last week was approximately 52.78 trillion yuan, with the interbank market accounting for 75.02% of the transactions[19] - Repo transactions dominated the trading methods, comprising 94.22% of the total trading volume[22] Bank Wealth Management Products - 90 ESG bank wealth management products were launched this month, with a total of 1,087 existing products in the market[20] - The largest share of existing products is pure ESG themes, accounting for 55.47%[20] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient ESG policy enforcement, lack of standardized data reporting, and lower-than-expected product issuance scales[23]

在此背景下，科创债正凸显出独特投资价值。科创债ETF（551880）既能凭借高等级信用债底色抵御债 市短期波动，又能依托政策持续加码的红利，为投资者分享科技创新领域长期发展机遇，成为平衡风险 与收益的优质配置选择。 2025下半年，A股市场显现明确牛市特征。相比之下，债券走势逆风，主要由于股债跷跷板效应，情绪 和灵活配置资金流失带来的压力。目前债券市场对股市走势反应逐渐钝化，预计债券走势重回基本面。 从中期维度来看，需求偏弱的背景下，货币政策易松难紧，调整或依然是配置的机会。 当前，科创债市场正在加速发展中，风险共担工具、拓宽发债主体、减免费用、鼓励挂钩产品等支持性 政策，有望进一步强化债券市场服务科技创新需求力度。一方面，政策鼓励支持中长期资金加大对科创 债及科创债产品的配置，并且相比普债，科创债久期更长，与保险等长期资金的久期需求更加匹配，科 创债增量资金可期；另一方面，政策支持使得科创债估值天然比普债高，信用利差压缩的潜在空间仍 在。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The 20-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 3.5 basis points to 2.590% [1]