Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, short - term observation is recommended as there is a possibility of correction in the short - to - medium term, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game [4]. - For copper, prices are expected to remain high before May Day due to short - term tariff alleviation, strong pre - holiday consumption, and supply - side speculation. After May Day, the impact on consumption should be monitored [10]. - For alumina, prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [18]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [21]. - For zinc, prices may rebound due to low social inventory, but the fundamentals are under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [26]. - For lead, prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro factors and import profitability [31]. - For nickel, prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and a mid - term strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [36]. - For stainless steel, prices may fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [43]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [47]. - For polysilicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - term positive arbitrage should take profit and exit [49]. - For lithium carbonate, a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [54]. - For tin, prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term, and risk prevention is necessary [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - On Friday, precious metals gave back the previous day's gains. London gold closed down 0.9% at $3318.62 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.53% at $33.1 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined [2]. Important Information - Trump made statements about tariff negotiations, and the US 4 - month inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released. The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates was also given [2]. Logic Analysis - Trump's attitude softening boosted market risk appetite, but after China's clarification, the market entered a wait - and - see state. Precious metals may correct in the short - to - medium term [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily observe. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [5]. Copper Market Review - LME copper closed at $9375 on Friday, up $15 or 0.16%. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. Important Information - Trump made statements about trade agreements, and major copper producers' production and sales expectations were reported [8]. Logic Analysis - Macro: Trump's trade agreement plan. Supply: Concentrate processing fees are falling, and smelter losses may increase. Demand: Downstream consumption has decreased, but pre - holiday stocking demand has increased [10]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will remain high before May Day. After May Day, short - selling opportunities can be considered if consumption is affected. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [10][11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures contract of alumina 2505 fell by 8 yuan/ton to 2823 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - There were issues with the Guinean shipping terminal, and the market supply was in a state of increase and decrease alternation. The relationship between price and production capacity was also analyzed [14]. Logic Analysis - After price declines and increased losses, production capacity adjustments occurred. Short - term supply - demand surplus was alleviated, and the market focused on the ore end [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [18]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai aluminum 2506 rose by 15 yuan/ton to 19970 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [19]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and Trump's tariff statements were reported, and aluminum ingot inventories decreased [19][20]. Logic Analysis - Tariff issues are in negotiation. Fundamentally, the weighted开工率 of aluminum processing is stable, and the import of aluminum ingots may limit price increases. The annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff and domestic demand policies. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [21]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 2.22% to $2645.5/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2506 fell 0.86% to 22550 yuan/ton. Spot trading was light [23]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting, industrial enterprise profit data, and LME's plan for a low - carbon metal premium mechanism were reported [24][25]. Logic Analysis - In May, domestic zinc concentrate supply will be relatively loose, and refined zinc production will remain high. Consumption is expected to decline after the peak season [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rebound due to low inventory, but short - selling on rallies can be considered. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [26]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.84% to $1945/ton, and Shanghai lead 2506 fell 0.94% to 16855 yuan/ton. Spot trading showed different performances in different regions [28]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and the approval of nuclear power projects were reported [31]. Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelting may cut production due to losses. Prices may be strong, but attention should be paid to import profitability [31]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and import factors. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [31]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15490/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot premiums and prices showed different trends [33]. Important Information - The production capacity and project responses of some nickel - related companies were reported, and Vale's nickel production increased [33][35]. Logic Analysis - Macro sentiment affects short - term prices. In May, the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased, but the full price remained firm. Supply is high, and demand may decline [36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds in the mid - term. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel SS2506 fell to 12685 yuan/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot prices were reported [38][39]. Important Information - Steel Union's inventory statistics were reported [39]. Logic Analysis - Cost - driven price increases may end, and demand is unclear. Short - term prices follow nickel and macro factors, and may decline in the medium term [42]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Observe [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon fell 0.85% to 8780 yuan/ton, and spot prices continued to decline [45]. Important Information - An organic silicon factory planned to carry out maintenance [45]. Comprehensive Analysis - DMC prices are falling, and monomer enterprise maintenance is increasing. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is in a negative cycle [46]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rallies. - Options: Observe. - Arbitrage: Participate in reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [47]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon fell 1.84% to 38390 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [49]. Important Information - National energy data showed an increase in photovoltaic installation [49]. Comprehensive Analysis - Component, silicon wafer, and battery prices are falling, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The futures market has strong multi - empty games, and prices are expected to decline [49]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe in the short term and pay attention to manufacturers' production of delivery products after the holiday. - Options: None. - Arbitrage: Take profit and exit the long PS2506 and short PS2511 arbitrage [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract of lithium carbonate fell to 68180 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [53]. Important Information - The progress of the automobile circulation reform and Tesla's situation in India were reported [53]. Logic Analysis - Production decreased last week, but inventory increased slightly, indicating weak demand. After May, supply may increase, and prices may be under pressure [53]. Pre - holiday Positioning Suggestion - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Hold put ratio options [54]. Tin Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai tin 2505 fell 0.3% to 262025 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased. Trading was light [56]. Important Information - Trump's trade agreement statements and Tin Industry Co.'s quarterly report were reported [57]. Logic Analysis - Trump's trade negotiation plan may cause market fluctuations. The short - term supply of tin ore is tight, but the annual supply - demand tension is relieved [58]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term and pay attention to risks. - Options: Observe [58][60].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options** - **Stock Index Futures**: The intraday view is a sideways - up trend with IM being relatively strong, and the medium - term view is a build - up for an upward movement. The core logic includes the government's determination to stabilize the capital market and the focus on technology - related industries [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The intraday view is a narrow - range sideways movement with caution on long - bond corrections, and the medium - term view is a high - level sideways movement. The core logic involves the adjustment of policy emphasis and the movement of interest rates [2][4]. - **Commodity Futures and Options** - **Copper**: The intraday view is a price range between 76,500 and 78,200, and the medium - term view is a range between 66,000 and 90,000. The market is supported by supply - demand tightness but suppressed by the dollar's rebound [5][6][7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The intraday view is a weakening trend in the range of 8,700 - 8,900, and the medium - term view is a downward - pressured movement in the range of 8,500 - 9,300 due to supply surplus [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The intraday view is a weakening trend in the range of 38,000 - 38,500, and the medium - term view is a low - level movement in the range of 35,000 - 40,000 because of supply surplus [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The intraday view is a weakening trend in the range of 67,800 - 68,300, and the medium - term view is a movement around the production cost in the range of 65,000 - 75,000, affected by low spot prices, high supply, and high inventory [12][13]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold IM2505 long positions, buy 1 lot of MO2506 - C - 5900 call options and sell 2 lots of MO2506 - P - 5200 put options [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Close out long positions of T2506 and TL2506 trading accounts [2]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper** - **Supply**: Codelco's Q1 output was 296,000 tons, up 0.3% year - on - year, aiming for 1.37 - 1.4 billion tons this year. Luoyang Molybdenum's Q1 output was 170,600 tons, up 15.65% year - on - year [5]. - **Demand**: In March, auto production and sales increased significantly, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also had high growth rates. The Q1 power grid investment was 95.6 billion yuan, up 24.8% year - on - year [5]. - **Inventory**: On April 25, LME copper inventory increased by 25 tons, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts and inventory decreased [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a sideways trading approach [7]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Supply**: In March, China's industrial silicon output was 342,200 tons, down 6.57% year - on - year [9]. - **Demand**: In March, China's polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, down 43.8% year - on - year [9]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, the social inventory was 611,000 tons, still at a high level [9]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the short position of SI2506 - C - 11000 and short the futures [9]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: In March, China's polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, down 43.8% year - on - year [10]. - **Demand**: In March, China's silicon wafer output was 50.76GW, down 30.44% year - on - year [11]. - **Inventory**: As of April 20, the social inventory was 251,000 tons, indicating obvious supply surplus [11]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the short position of PS2506 - C - 47000 [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Spot Price**: On April 25, the price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate dropped to 69,700 yuan/ton, hitting a more than 4 - year low [13]. - **Supply**: In March 2025, the production capacity was 7,285 tons, up 93% year - on - year. In February 2025, battery - grade and industrial - grade production also increased [13]. - **Inventory**: As of March 31, the total inventory was 90,070 tons, at a high level within the year [13]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the short position of LC2507 - C - 83000 [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [4] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon industry chain is under pressure due to weak supply and demand. The production enthusiasm of silicon factories is significantly reduced, and the demand side shows no improvement. [1][2][11][12] - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the marginal changes on the supply - side, such as large - scale production cuts and the resumption of production in Southwest China during the flood season. [1][3][11] - For polysilicon, focus on whether the southwest production capacity resumes production as scheduled during the flood season and whether there are production cut plans for other capacities. [2][3][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2506 contract of industrial silicon increased by 30 yuan/ton to 8780 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 9600 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon increased by 775 yuan/ton to 38390 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 40300 yuan/ton. [9][10] 3.2 Supply and Demand Are Weak, and the Pressure on the Silicon Industry Chain Remains High - **Industrial silicon**: The futures price fluctuated this week. Liaoning reduced 1 industrial silicon furnace, and Inner Mongolia reduced 2. The weekly output was 72,400 tons, a decrease of 0.93% month - on - month. The social inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 3800 tons. The demand is weak, and the purchase price of polysilicon manufacturers for industrial silicon powder is between 9400 - 9700 yuan/ton. [11] - **Organosilicon**: The price dropped significantly this week. The overall operating rate was about 62.4%, an increase of 0.68 pct month - on - month. The weekly output was 41,300 tons, an increase of 0.73% month - on - month, and the inventory decreased by 2.45% month - on - month. The supply - demand imbalance remains unchanged, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price recovered slightly this week. The spot trading of silicon materials was limited this week, and large - scale transactions are expected after May Day. The production schedule for April is expected to be around 100,000 tons, and the production schedule for May is revised down to around 100,000 tons. As of April 20, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 251,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons month - on - month. The downstream raw material inventory is about 110,000 tons. The demand is weak, and the spot pressure remains high. [2][12] - **Silicon wafers**: The price continued to fall this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10, G12R, and G12 models dropped to 1.15, 1.35, and 1.50 yuan/watt respectively. The inventory continued to be reduced in April. Affected by the adjustment of the quota by the association and lower - than - expected demand in May, the production schedule is expected to be reduced to about 54GW. [13] - **Battery cells**: The price continued to fall this week. The prices of M10, G12N, and G12 battery cells dropped to 0.285, 0.28, and 0.30 yuan/watt respectively. After the demand declined, some specifications of battery cells began to accumulate inventory. [13] - **Components**: The price continued to fall this week. After the rush - installation period, the price of distributed components dropped rapidly. Affected by the adjustment of the quota by the association and lower - than - expected demand in May, the production schedule is expected to be reduced to about 56GW. [14] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - **Industrial silicon**: The price has fallen below 9000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions, not to go long on the left - hand side. Consider bottom - fishing on the right - hand side after clear signals such as large - scale production cuts, less - than - expected resumption of production in Southwest China during the flood season, and obvious outflow of warehouse receipts appear. Also, pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories. [3][15] - **Polysilicon**: After the price drop, pay attention to whether the southwest production capacity resumes production as scheduled during the flood season and whether there are production cut plans for other capacities. Before the large - scale generation of warehouse receipts, the disk is more reasonably valued at a premium for delivery. The operating range of the PS2507 contract may be 35,000 - 39,000 yuan/ton. For the PS2511 contract, it is advisable to value it at a discount for delivery, and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse spread opportunity. [3][15] 3.4 Hot News - On April 23, 2025, Yongchang Silicon Industry's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon energy - saving and environmental - protection project's No. 4 electric furnace successfully produced the first furnace of industrial silicon. [16] - On April 21, the US imposed anti - dumping and counter -vailing duties on solar cells and components from four Southeast Asian countries. [16] - In the first quarter, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30%. [16] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial silicon**: Includes data on the spot price of oxygen - blown 553 and 99 silicon, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory. [18][21][23] - **Organosilicon**: Covers data on the spot price, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output of DMC. [28][29] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on the spot price, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output of polysilicon. [32][35] - **Silicon wafers**: Contains data on the spot price, average net profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output of silicon wafers. [37][39][41] - **Battery cells**: Includes data on the spot price, average net profit, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly output of battery cells. [43][45][47] - **Components**: Covers data on the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output of components. [52][57][60]

Core Insights - The polysilicon spot market in China is experiencing limited transactions with prices showing a downward trend [1] Price Summary - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment materials is between 39,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 40,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.71% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 37,000 to 39,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 38,000 yuan per ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 2.56% [1] - The transaction price range for p-type polysilicon is between 31,000 to 35,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 33,000 yuan per ton, indicating a week-on-week decrease of 1.49% [1] Market Dynamics - The polysilicon market is currently in a stalemate, with buyers and sellers unable to reach a consensus on pricing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The silicon market in China is experiencing a downturn with limited transactions and declining prices for polysilicon products [1] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment materials is between 39,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 40,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.71% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 37,000 to 39,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 38,000 yuan per ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 2.56% [1] - The transaction price range for p-type polysilicon is between 31,000 to 35,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 33,000 yuan per ton, indicating a week-on-week decrease of 1.49% [1]

本周多晶硅市场处于僵持博弈状态，买方与卖方暂时没有达成较为一致的价格共识。根据企业反馈，目前部分硅料企业试探性对下游降低报 价，下游仍以不符合价格预期为由拒绝签单，选择采购更具有价格优势的菜花珊瑚料或等外品。因此，在本阶段多晶硅市场成交量较少，虽价格走 势较为 明确 ，但无法完全反映到实际的成交价格上面。 协鑫科技控股有限公司 东方希望集团有限公司 青海丽蒙清能股份有限公司 新疆晶诺新能源产业发展有限公司 内蒙古鄂尔多斯多晶硅业有限公司 数据来源:安泰科 本周多晶硅价格再度出现小幅下滑，主要原因在于目前二季度硅片产出不及预期。 4月硅料签单水平整体来看不及3月，而5月硅片开工预计出 现下滑，企业节后补库意愿不明确，很有可能继续维持小规模按需采购状态，硅料库存无法得到有效消纳。目前，大部分头部企业依旧处于减少签 单的挺价状态，但随着挺价企业的出货压力累积，硅料价格预计将迎来一次小幅的调整。 截至目前，我国所有在产多晶硅企业基本处于降负荷运行状态，本月 总计 1家企业 进入检修状态，预计对整体产量影响较为有限。 2025年3 月，我国多晶硅进口2906.05吨，环比减少7.10%。我国多晶硅出口2005.65吨， ...

【安泰科讯】 2025年一季度国内多晶硅继续呈现"三低一高"的运行状态，即市场价格和 供需保持低位，但库存维持高位。二季度市场供需预期维持平衡，但期货蓄水池有望缓解业 内库存压力。 一季度市场情况 供需方面： 一季度各硅料企业纷纷响应自律号召，减产降负荷，国内多晶硅企业平均开 工率降至历史最低水平 40%以下。一季度国内多晶硅产量约29.45万吨，同比大幅减少 44.7%。而预期一季度进口0.85万吨，占比不足3%；同时，一季度单晶硅产量144.23Gw， 同比减少26.1%，硅料需求29.87万吨，同时预期多晶硅出口0.6万吨，同比增长65.8%，市 场供需基本平衡。而在终端光伏领域，前两个月国内装机39.47GW，同比增长7.49%，而组 件出口36.6GW，同比下降1.0%，部分国家如葡萄牙、巴基斯坦组件出口量同比显著增长； 电池片累计出口11.1GW，同比下降8.4%；库存方面： 截至 3月底，国内多晶硅行业库存总 量仍在39.18万吨左右 ，本季度多晶硅环节处于小幅去库状态。 价格方面： 一季度，国内 N型复投料价格稳定在4.16万元/吨左右，同比下跌41.49%。 价格一路下跌，基本跌破所有在产企 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are difficult to change, and the rush to install photovoltaic systems is receding. The supply reduction of industrial silicon has been implemented, but the demand remains sluggish. For polysilicon, the core issue is the high inventory, and the spot price may face pressure again with the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2505 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 365 yuan/ton to 9455 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10100 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1815 yuan/ton to 41835 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N-type re-feeding material remained unchanged at 41700 yuan/ton [10] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamentals Remain Unchanged, Photovoltaic Rush to Install Recedes - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated downward this week. Xinjiang reduced production by 2 industrial silicon furnaces, with a weekly output of 72400 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. The social inventory of SMM industrial silicon increased by 0.4 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.65 million tons. After the production reduction of large factories in Xinjiang, other large factories did not continue to reduce production. The industrial silicon in the southwest region is slowly resuming work, and some new production capacities are planned to be put into operation this month. The powder list price of polysilicon factories this week is between 10400 - 10500 yuan/ton. Organic silicon continued to reduce production, and the price of aluminum alloy decreased due to US tariffs, maintaining only rigid demand for industrial silicon. Exports may decline in the short term due to relevant policies [12] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon dropped significantly this week. Many enterprises maintained reduced production, with an overall operating rate of about 63.3%, a decrease of 3.28 percentage points. The weekly output was 41900 tons, a decrease of 3.23%, and the inventory was 53700 tons, an increase of 6.97%. After the price increase, the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited, and the procurement intensity weakened. Although monomer factories continued to operate at reduced capacity, there was no shortage of supply, and the factory inventory increased instead of decreasing [12][13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated downward this week. The price of silicon materials remained stable temporarily due to fewer signed orders, but the manufacturers' recent quotations have started to decline. The planned production of polysilicon in April is expected to be about 1 million tons, and it is expected to increase to about 1.1 million tons in May. It is estimated that polysilicon can continue to reduce inventory by 10000 tons in May. However, the core problem of polysilicon is still the high inventory, with the industry - wide inventory possibly around 4.5 million tons. From April to May, silicon wafer manufacturers mainly aim to digest their existing inventory, with low procurement enthusiasm. With the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, the spot price may face pressure again. As of April 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts was only 10 lots [3][13] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers started to decline this week. Affected by the earthquake, the price of silicon wafers was raised, but the terminal demand declined earlier than expected, resulting in low acceptance of the new price. The mainstream transaction prices of M10, G12R, and G12 models may gradually fall to 1.25, 1.50, and 1.55 yuan/watt. The planned production of silicon wafers in April was adjusted down to 60 - 62GW, and the silicon wafer sector continued to reduce inventory. As of April 60 (presumably a typo, might be April 6), the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 20.9GW, an increase of 1.4GW. In May, considering that the silicon wafer sector has been reducing inventory for 8 consecutive months and the current inventory has dropped to a half - month level, the planned production of silicon wafers in May is also expected to be above 60GW. After the rush - to - install period, the market demand may weaken rapidly, and the price of silicon wafers may continue to decline [14] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells remained basically stable this week. The price of M10 and G12 model battery cells remained at 0.31 yuan/watt, and the price of G12R model battery cells dropped slightly to 0.33 yuan/watt. The decline in component prices led to low acceptance of high - priced battery cells. The planned production of domestic battery cells in April was 61 - 63GW, continuing the inventory reduction trend. As of April 7, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 2.58GW, an increase of 1.3GW. Looking forward, after the end of the rush - to - install period, the price of battery cells may decline with the weakening of demand from late April [14] - **Components**: The price of components dropped slightly this week. As the rush - to - install tide gradually receded, the price of distributed components started to decline, falling to the level of 0.75 - 0.76 yuan/watt, and high - price transactions shrank rapidly. The price of centralized components was basically stable. On April 9, China Power Construction terminated the 5.1GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for 2025. It is expected that the project will be re - tendered, but the procurement price and price level may be lower than before. The planned production of components in April was 66 - 68GW. Considering the delivery of the remaining orders of distributed components and the placement of centralized component orders, the planned production of components in May is expected to be 60 - 62GW. After the rush - to - install period, the price of components is expected to continue to decline [15] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction of large factories in Xinjiang may lead to inventory reduction, but without policy support, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is weak. The upper limit of the disk price depends on the hedging point. The lower limit mainly considers two points: 1) cost and production reduction; 2) selling the new standard 421 as 99 - grade silicon. Considering that the spot price may continue to fall towards the cost line of large factories and the premium of 800 yuan/ton for the new contract, in a worse - case scenario, the disk price may fall to about 9000 yuan/ton. Therefore, the disk price may fluctuate between 9000 - 10500 yuan/ton. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the disk price rebounds. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity of Si2511 - Si2512 [4][17] - **Polysilicon**: After the rush - to - install period, with the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, the spot price may face pressure again. However, in April, polysilicon started warehouse receipt registration, and the disk will also trade the contradiction of warehouse receipts. Considering that only five enterprises meet the delivery brand requirements and the production of deliverable products from March to May is limited, silicon material factories will be more cautious about hedging, and a too - low disk price may lead to a shortage of warehouse receipts. Therefore, for unilateral trading, it is recommended to pay attention to both the opportunity to go long on PS2506 at low prices and the opportunity to go short on PS2511 at high prices. For arbitrage, the long - short position of PS2506 - PS2511 can continue to be held [4][17] 3.4 Hot News - China Power Construction terminated the 5.1GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for 2025 due to factors such as the adjustment of new energy electricity price policies [15][18] - On April 9, the 100000 - ton hydropower silicon energy - saving and environmental - protection project of Yunnan Energy Investment Group Yongchang Silicon Industry was put into operation, with an expected annual industrial output value of over 1.5 billion yuan, tax payments of over 120 million yuan, and the creation of more than 300 jobs [18] - The 1.6 million - ton organic silicon project of Qiya Group started construction on April 1, 2025, and is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2026. It is an important plan for Qiya Group to improve the full silicon - based industrial chain [18]

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market is experiencing weak transaction volumes and price stagnation, with a pessimistic outlook due to insufficient downstream purchasing demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 39,000-45,000 CNY/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 CNY/ton. For n-type granular silicon, the price range is 38,000-41,000 CNY/ton, averaging 39,000 CNY/ton. The p-type polysilicon price range is 32,000-36,000 CNY/ton, with an average of 34,000 CNY/ton [1]. - Most polysilicon enterprises report a lack of downstream purchasing demand, making it difficult to secure orders for April. The market is currently in a stalemate, with few transactions and a general reluctance to sign new contracts [1]. - The stability in prices is primarily due to insufficient actual transaction data, despite some major manufacturers lowering their external quotes. The industry believes that the apparent price stability is temporary, as new orders have not yet materialized [1]. Group 2: Production and Supply - As of now, all operating polysilicon enterprises in China are running at reduced capacity, with one additional enterprise entering maintenance this month, slightly alleviating price pressure [2]. - In March 2024, China's polysilicon production reached 105,500 tons, with growth attributed to production line optimization and normal production fluctuations. The production forecast for April is maintained at around 105,000 tons [2].

金价延续跌势，海外市场恐慌情绪有所缓解，但贸易战短期并 没有明显的缓和迹象，其他国家预期陆续和美国进行谈判，但 中国推出反制措施后，特朗普再度施压。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 贝森特：预计在 4 月 9 日关税上调之前不会达成任何协议 综 特朗普最新表态没有考虑暂停加征关税，短期市场波动加剧， 市场风险偏好短期回升，流动性冲击暂时结束。 日度报告——综合晨报 新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-08 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储理事库格勒：新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" 巴西大豆收获完成 87% 中美贸易战升级为当前市场主要矛盾，CBOT 大豆下跌，昨日巴 西 CNF 升贴水上涨但涨幅有限，昨日我国进口巴西豆成本甚至 较清明小长假前略降、豆粕期价涨幅有限。 有色金属（氧化铝） 西澳地区为主的海外氧化铝成交价格继续回落 氧化铝企业因担心长单客户损失、对成本下降的预期以及储备 现金流和产业链优势等因素，继续维持生产。 能源化工（原油） 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 商务部召开美资企业圆桌会 报 受关税冲击影响，A 股市场暴跌，主要指数跌幅高达 8%以上。 短期内 ...